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Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland

Nairaland ForumNairaland GeneralPoliticsForeign AffairsMariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine (2111 Views)

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Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Lonelyhrt1(op): 6:09am On May 19, 2022
The Ukrainian city of Mariupol is now in Russian hands, after more than two months of bitter fighting and constant Russian shelling that destroyed massive swaths of the city and killed thousands of civilians, according to local officials.

Ukraine formally declared an end to its combat mission in Mariupol late Monday. Evacuations of Ukrainian soldiers from the Azovstal steel plant, Ukraine's last military holdout, began earlier that day.

The Russian Defense Ministry says nearly 1,000 soldiers have surrendered since then, including dozens of wounded soldiers being treated at a hospital in the Donetsk region of Ukraine controlled by Russian and separatist forces.

It is unclear how many Ukrainian soldiers remain in Mariupol. "The evacuation mission continues, it is overseen by our military and intelligence. The most influential international mediators are involved," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Wednesday.

Ukrainian officials said this week that they expect the evacuated soldiers to eventually be exchanged in prisoner of war swaps. But some Russian politicians have protested that idea, calling the Mariupol defenders "Nazi criminals."

The fight for Mariupol had been a source of morale for Ukrainians as a "David and Goliath story," said Rita Konaev, an expert on the Russian military at Georgetown University.

For months, Ukrainians had celebrated the small number of soldiers who managed to keep the city from falling into Russian hands, despite near-constant shelling and Russia's firepower advantage.

"The main goal was to hold back the enemy, and they did it as long as possible. Thank you to our heroes, our defenders, for holding the fort of Mariupol for such a long time," said Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko, speaking on Ukrainian TV Monday.

Why was Russia so focused on seizing Mariupol?
Mariupol is located between Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and the region of Eastern Ukraine called Donbas, much of which was already controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Most of the current fighting is taking place in the Donbas region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the "independence" of two enclaves there prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Those are the two areas — so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics — that have faced Russian aggression since 2014.

"Mariupol is right in between them. So taking Mariupol is part of the campaign in the south and the southeast to connect the Russian-held areas, essentially," said Konaev, who spoke to NPR in March.

By controlling Mariupol, Russia has solidified its land bridge to Crimea and now controls the entire north shore of the Sea of Azov.

What could it mean for Ukraine that Mariupol is in Russian hands?
In the short term, the Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol had been cut off the rest of Ukraine's armed forces for months. Only a few thousand were estimated to be left in the city by the time they were backed up into Azovstal.

The country is pursuing the return of those soldiers via prisoner swaps. "I want to emphasize that Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive," Zelenskyy said earlier this week.
In the long term, Mariupol was an important economic center for Ukraine because of its status as a port city. In peacetime, it is a major site for exporting Ukrainian steel and grain.

That status has already been altered by war, Liam Collins, a retired colonel with U.S. Army Special Forces who has trained Ukrainian forces, told NPR in March. With Mariupol under siege, it's not able to currently produce for the war effort, he said.

The major impact would come if a negotiated settlement partitions off part of Ukraine, said Collins: "Ukraine's not going to want to do that after 2014 and 2015 [when Russia essentially took part of Eastern Ukraine], but it's always a possibility."

If Russia holds Mariupol for a long time, preventing Ukraine's access to the Sea of Azov, it will damage Ukraine's finances and economic sustainability, hindering the country's ability to sell and ship its products.

"It's part of a broader effort to effectively cut Ukraine off from access to the sea, which is a really important part of Ukrainian economy and trade," Konaev said.


What was the fighting there like, and how did it come to focus on a steel plant?

Mariupol has been a focus of the Russian military from the beginning of its invasion. Russian forces reached Mariupol just days after the invasion began on Feb. 24, and they encircled the city by early March.

Through weeks of intense street fighting and relentless shelling, Russia pushed Ukrainian forces farther and farther back until they were pinned inside the Azovstal plant, their backs to the coast, with nowhere else to retreat.

On April 21, Russian military officials declared victory in Mariupol after capturing the rest of the city.

The humanitarian situation inside the city, described to NPR by people who fled from March through May, was deplorable. Residents leaving Mariupol uniformly described a lack of access to food, water, heat or communications. Many sheltered in basements for weeks on end as shells and airstrikes landed around them constantly.


Some of the war's most shocking moments have occurred in Mariupol, including the destruction of a maternity hospital and a strike on the city's Drama Theater, where more than 1,000 civilians were sheltering.

As the fighting came to the steel plant, hundreds of civilians were sheltering in the plant's network of underground bunkers and tunnels that date back to the Soviet era. Many were evacuated earlier this month in convoys led by the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nations.

"The last few days we were there, I became convinced that the steel plant was going to collapse on us. How could it stand up to this kind of bombing?" said Alex Dybko, an English teacher who sheltered in the plant for weeks with his wife and son before evacuating to Zaporizhzhia this month.

What's next for Mariupol?

Local officials say more than 20,000 civilians have died in the city. The damage to the city has been massive. Ukrainian officials say about 100,000 civilians remain in Mariupol, which was home to about 430,000 residents before the war.

This week, Russia organized the first press tours for foreign journalists to visit the city. It has largely been unsafe for the media since the war began.

U.S. officials have said that they believe that Russia could be looking to annex the Donetsk and Luhansk areas of eastern Ukraine this month. Mariupol is part of the Donetsk oblast.

"We believe that the Kremlin may try to hold sham referenda to try to add a veneer of democratic or electoral legitimacy. This is straight out of the Kremlin's playbook," Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, told reporters earlier this month.

The U.S. and its allies recently said they will never recognize redrawn Ukrainian borders.

As for the larger war, Collins says Russia cannot win simply by conquering a certain amount of territory. "There are no winners in this. It's war. Both nations are going to lose regardless of the outcome. It's just a matter of which one loses more," he said.

Source https://www.npr.org/2022/05/18/1099885151/mariupol-falls-ukraine-russia-what-it-means

Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by joyandfaith: 6:15am On May 19, 2022
Russia army should be ready to stay in Donbas and mauripol for a long time. Battle of mauripol is more of pyrrhic victory for Russia. Soon, residents wouldn't see RA as liberators but destroyers.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by backtalkG(m): 6:15am On May 19, 2022
Ukrainians have suffered a lot cos of ego of putin and zelensky
Hope this will bring peace to the region
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by donleo92(m): 6:22am On May 19, 2022
This is not a victory.
I see Ukraine regrouping and gaining sympathy from the world especially the west.

this war is far from been over. it's just the start of a more emotional war
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by dawnomike(m): 6:27am On May 19, 2022
As for the larger war, Collins says Russia cannot win simply by conquering a certain amount of territory. "There are no winners in this. It's war. Both nations are going to lose regardless of the outcome. It's just a matter of which one loses more," he said.

The above submission is the sad reality of the war... It is a senseless war for Ukraine.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Okoroawusa: 6:29am On May 19, 2022
The Ukrainian president should have known better instead he was busy listening to the U.S.....Ukraine will never remain the same again
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Okoroawusa: 6:31am On May 19, 2022
donleo92:
This is not a victory.
I see Ukraine regrouping and gaining sympathy from the world especially the west.

this war is far from been over. it's just the start of a more emotional war
You are among the people that started the war by encouraging Ukraine to fight a world power.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by dedonfranco(m): 6:38am On May 19, 2022
Putin said The war is going according to their plan.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by IgOga(m): 6:43am On May 19, 2022
80% of Ukrainian coastline is now under Russian control....the remaining 20% is fully blockaded. The bigger impact of the war is food shortages....considering that Ukraine, Russia and Belarus are the foodbasket of the world in terms of products exported....the world is in for a massive shock....already inflation is through the roof....by September there will be a global recession.....the reaction to the war by Western leaders is costing the west more than it is costing Russia at this stage.....everyone should be looking for peace.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Officialgarri: 6:45am On May 19, 2022
Russian might have suffered alot of set back, but despite the massive military support Ukraine gained from the west, Russia still triumphed.

It will be better if Russia rounds it war up in Ukraine so it could be prepared for Finland and Sweden.

And Russia shouldn't invade with the level 1 military. They should step to their level 3.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Painintheass221: 7:23am On May 19, 2022
Russia is not even fighting with their main army.

Out of a military strength of 1.6 million, Putin drafted a 150 thousand comprising of recruits, dissidents and foreigners in the RA.

Weapons were Soviet era and minimal airstrikes by fighter jets was conducted.

USA lost again, just like they have always been.

Lost Korea to China
Lost Afghanistan to Taliban's
Lost Cuba yo Russia (USSR)
Lost Vietcong to Vietnam
Lost Iraq
Lost Iran
Lost middle east
Now it lost Maruipol


Just tell me any war, (Not US Civil War) that us has won.

Even the world war that US claim to have won was not true.
In 1942, the Soviets turned the tables on the Germans and won a great victory at Stalingrad that spelled doom for the Wehrmacht. In 1943 and 1944 the Red Army expelled the Germans from the rest of Russia and then began an invasion of Germany that culminated in the capture of Berlin in May 1945.

Soviet forces launched a counteroffensive against the Germans arrayed at Stalingrad in mid-November 1942. They quickly encircled an entire German army, more than 220,000 soldiers. In February 1943, after months of fierce fighting and heavy casualties, the surviving German forces—only about 91,000 soldiers—surrendered.

So there is a pattern here, circle and force you to surrender, just as they did with Ukraine.

https://www.britannica.com/event/World-War-II/Invasion-of-the-Soviet-Union-1941
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Mooh247: 7:26am On May 19, 2022
Ukraine can never bounce back from this in the next 10 years
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by baralatie(m): 7:54am On May 19, 2022
dawnomike:
As for the larger war, Collins says Russia cannot win simply by conquering a certain amount of territory. "There are no winners in this. It's war. Both nations are going to lose regardless of the outcome. It's just a matter of which one loses more," he said.

The above submission is the sad reality of the war... It is a senseless war for Ukraine.
What larger war is he referring to?
If this is about Ukraine
It was clear at the onset that ukraine was going to loose a lot
That was why the minsk2 agreement came in but Ukraine pulled out and here we are.
The looses by ukraine are massive
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by baralatie(m): 7:55am On May 19, 2022
Mooh247:
Ukraine can never bounce back from this in the next 10 years
Zelensky has declared martial law for another 90 days oo
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by seunny4lif(m): 8:19am On May 19, 2022
baralatie:
Zelensky has declared martial law for another 90 days oo
Russia can now focus on Donabass region then full force for Odessa
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Hanibbal(m): 8:23am On May 19, 2022
seunny4lif:
Russia can now focus on Donabass region then full force for Odessa
But Russia has to fortify Mariupol with troops, air defences and offensive arms o. I am very sure NATO is devicing a strategy with Ukraine on how to take back Mariupol. Russia should not relax.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by seunny4lif(m): 8:31am On May 19, 2022
Hanibbal:
But Russia has to fortify Mariupol with troops, air defences and offensive arms o. I am very sure NATO is devicing a strategy with Ukraine on how to take back Mariupol. Russia should not relax.
Russia have already begun to clear some area.
Once Russia declared them as part of Russia cities then if Ukraine attack, Russia can go into full war.
Just like Crimea.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by ken6488(m): 8:33am On May 19, 2022
joyandfaith:
Russia army should be ready to stay in Donbas and mauripol for a long time. Battle of mauripol is more of pyrrhic victory for Russia. Soon, residents wouldn't see RA as liberators but destroyers.
Unfortunately you have no idea of what is going on

Ukraine troops has been committing mass attrocities in those places

Russia is the saint here
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by ken6488(m): 8:35am On May 19, 2022
donleo92:
This is not a victory.
I see Ukraine regrouping and gaining sympathy from the world especially the west.

this war is far from been over. it's just the start of a more emotional war
Lol if Ukraine couldn't re group to rescue elite 2000 troops besige in the place what make you think they can do anything again
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by ken6488(m): 8:36am On May 19, 2022
Okoroawusa:
The Ukrainian president should have known better instead he was busy listening to the U.S.....Ukraine will never remain the same again
Now they are compensating their self with Sweden and Finland

How will those countries joining NATO affect Ukraine now

Ukraine was just used
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by ken6488(m): 8:40am On May 19, 2022
Hanibbal:
But Russia has to fortify Mariupol with troops, air defences and offensive arms o. I am very sure NATO is devicing a strategy with Ukraine on how to take back Mariupol. Russia should not relax.
Keep leaving in false hope

Ukraine and NATO couldn't rescue 2000 troops trapped

They where calling

Elon musk
Pope etc

What makes you think anything can be done now
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by seunny4lif(m): 8:41am On May 19, 2022
joyandfaith:
Russia army should be ready to stay in Donbas and mauripol for a long time. Battle of mauripol is more of pyrrhic victory for Russia. Soon, residents wouldn't see RA as liberators but destroyers.
Mauripol have been Pro Russia city from day one.
Over 200 Russians were killed in 2014 protesters by Ukraine NAZI.
Even DW that is anti Russia station, talked about it in 2016.
Most Russians blamed Putin for not stepping up to defend Donbas, Mauripol like he did for Crimea.
Odessa is next.
All Eastern Ukraine are massive pro Russia city.
Go and watch when even Ukraine troops in 2014, said Mauripol is not Ukraine, and all the people there should be killed.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Svlla: 8:42am On May 19, 2022
Hanibbal:
But Russia has to fortify Mariupol with troops, air defences and offensive arms o. I am very sure NATO is devicing a strategy with Ukraine on how to take back Mariupol. Russia should not relax.
How can they take back mauripol that's deep in enemy territory. How will they support that force and from where without taking the outlying areas surrounding mariupol.

Hannibal (Barca) you suppose be father of strategy ooo. Make them no try anything like the battle of cannae where over 50,000 soldier was lost in a single day's battle grin grin
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by VictorUSA(m): 9:08am On May 19, 2022
How many times will Russia capture Mariupol? Do we have two Mariupols in Ukraine? Russian forces are just too weak to progress beyond that Mariupol.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by joyandfaith: 9:13am On May 19, 2022
ken6488:
Unfortunately you have no idea of what is going on

Ukraine troops has been committing mass attrocities in those places

Russia is the saint here
Unfortunately, you know nothing. You don't know demographics of mauripol.
Saint that destroyed cities they came to liberate.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by joyandfaith: 9:15am On May 19, 2022
seunny4lif:
Mauripol have been Pro Russia city from day one.
Over 200 Russians were killed in 2014 protesters by Ukraine NAZI.
Even DW that is anti Russia station, talked about it in 2016.
Most Russians blamed Putin for not stepping up to defend Donbas, Mauripol like he did for Crimea.
Odessa is next.
All Eastern Ukraine are massive pro Russia city.
Go and watch when even Ukraine troops in 2014, said Mauripol is not Ukraine, and all the people there should be killed.
You don't know demographics of mauripol. Would say jos north belongs to hausa or berom?
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by seunny4lif(m): 9:24am On May 19, 2022
joyandfaith:
You don't know demographics of mauripol. Would say jos north belongs to hausa or berom?
Clearing you don’t know what you are talking about.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by joyandfaith: 9:27am On May 19, 2022
seunny4lif:
Clearing you don’t know what you are talking about.
You have said nothing. Tell me demographics of mauripol.
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by baralatie(m): 9:44am On May 19, 2022
seunny4lif:
Russia can now focus on Donabass region then full force for Odessa
I strongly believe that Russia will put some sort of pressure to take Odessa.
It has already formed a blockade of some sort on the waterways that is why Odessa keeps launching missles at sea(although it has no option than for it to wait it out)
But in the long run Russia will take it .
Then we see how the other parts of eastern Ukraine shapes up
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by baralatie(m): 9:48am On May 19, 2022
ken6488:
Now they are compensating their self with Sweden and Finland

How will those countries joining NATO affect Ukraine now

Ukraine was just used
You see that Sweden and Finland mata .I find it funny!
The two countries already have it in the constitution to be nuetral.the political leadership cannot unilaterally drag everybody into problem.it is a political time bomb waiting to explode.
Putin is not even bothering himself about it until the time comes!
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Balogunodua(m): 10:06am On May 19, 2022
joyandfaith:
Russia army should be ready to stay in Donbas and mauripol for a long time. Battle of mauripol is more of pyrrhic victory for Russia. Soon, residents wouldn't see RA as liberators but destroyers.
Yes....just like many towns in Kharkiv are now under Russia control...but Russia is losing the war on social media grin grin
Re: Mariupol Has Fallen To Russia. Here's What That Means For Ukraine by Balogunodua(m): 10:10am On May 19, 2022
VictorUSA:
How many times will Russia capture Mariupol? Do we have two Mariupols in Ukraine? Russian forces are just too weak to progress beyond that Mariupol.
Delusional grin
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