₦airaland Forum

Katsumoto: Nigerians have a strong sense of survival; many are surviving on the barest minimum. Oil mostly funds the ostentatious lifestyles of the rich and the wannabees. If oil disappears, ostentatious lifestyles will mostly disappear but Nigerians will continue to survive. They survived without it for centuries and will survive after its gone. The people that should be worried about oil are those who have numerous girlfriends, houses, cars, foreign bank accounts, etc.

Thank you!!!!

ronkebp: Then how did Nigeria survive in the past?

1. Less population
2. Most Nigerians lived in rural areas and were uneducated hence they survived on the rural/traditional economy.
3. The standard of living then was very low.

homerac7: Argh!...@OP, Dede1 and Kobo

What's d difference between GDP and GNI ?

Alimosho is 40% of Lagos population while V.I & Lekki is 2% of Lagos population, so which is d higher revenue area?

*hypothetical percentages.

As a layman, I understand that GNI is GDP less both gross imports of goods and service and indirect business taxes.

torkaka: for all you second hand economist on this show, quick questions;
1.if agriculture is doing so well,then why is it our budgets are predicated on the price of a barrel of crude? i.e using benchmarks.
2.since budgets are basically drawn based on expected revenue and planned expenditure,can you kindly tell me the %'s our budgets(2009,2010,2011,2012) expect from oil & agriculture.
SHIKENA!!

GDP is not based on revenue; budget is based on revenue. You are confusing the terms. Agriculture may not contribute much to revenue because it is mostly consumed and not exported. But if farmers pay taxes, then it contributes to the budget.

If you want to use expenditure, then government expenditure is a component of GDP; it is not the sum.

GDP is a sum of Consumption, Investment, Government Spending and Net Exports.

@katsumoto
then what are you all talking? revenue of govt is from oil right? which means govt is run oil? which means nigeria is run on oil!

One of the reasons I dogmatically call for disintegration of Nigeria is crude oil. I do not care if my country does not have a drop of crude oil after the disintegration but hope the absence of crude oil will bring out tenacity and creativity in my people to make sands valuable.

J12: 1. Less population

Right.

J12: 2. Most Nigerians lived in rural areas and were uneducated hence they survived on the rural/traditional economy.

Right, most lived in Rural areas, i do not agree with the uneducated part, majority of my father's generation went to scholl, if not college, at least had high-school certificate and they could still get jobs with that.

J12: 3. The standard of living then was very low.

Yea, everybody lived within their means, now we have the oil thieves, yahoo-yahoo, drug barons they larger the population, the more thieves we are breeding. Everyone wants to live large and do not have the where-withals to do so, they end up stealing from others, are we going to call that growth? or a big decline.

Kobojunkie: Apparently, for the past 6 years(at least), there has been increase in money coming in from Agriculture, now more than 2 times of what we get from Oil.

Where is that money? Why do we keep thinking that our economy is still being held up by Oil money? Is someone lying to us? If yes, who?

Nice question you asked on "Where is the money from agriculture?"
Simple answer: Because it doesn't exist!
Benue state is the food basket of the nation, they are piss poor and depend on monthy stipends from the federal purse funded by crude oil. If agriculture is a huge revenue earner, why is the "food basket of the nation" not rich?

J12: Nice question you asked on "Where is the money from agriculture?"
Simple answer: Because it doesn't exist!
Benue state is the food basket of the nation, they are piss poor and depend on monthy stipends from the federal purse funded by crude oil. If agriculture is a huge revenue earner, why is the "food basket of the nation" not rich?

You know what? You may be right but since those who are supposed to be telling us the truth have been telling us that Agriculture gives me 40%, I want to know if they are lying to us, and if yes, why. I would rather we find out the truth of what is going on. Is Agriculture really 40% of our GDP? and oil only 16% or is it not?

Liars getting roasted by economists..

Beaf, go create some fun pics, slowpoke. bwahahaha

Katsumoto: Nigerians have a strong sense of survival; many are surviving on the barest minimum. Oil mostly funds the ostentatious lifestyles of the rich and the wannabees. If oil disappears, ostentatious lifestyles will mostly disappear but Nigerians will continue to survive. They survived without it for centuries and will survive after its gone. The people that should be worried about oil are those who have numerous girlfriends, houses, cars, foreign bank accounts, etc.

If oil disappears, Nigeria will simply crumble into the new Somalia.

Yes, people survived for centuries before oil, many by chasing wild animals on foot, fighting with tigers and climbing trees to harvest palmnuts etc. Those were the days when you simply threw away your twins (instead of bothering with extra mouths) and trekked from Lagos to Sokoto to sell crocodiles and salt (as a wealthy business person). It surely was great time with a life expectancy of maybe 25 years.

Nigeria has not grown technologically since those days and oil is our life support system. Take it away, and its back to Tarzan time.

torkaka: @katsumoto
then what are you all talking? revenue of govt is from oil right? which means govt is run oil? which means nigeria is run on oil!

At the risk of sounding redundant, government spending is one of the components used in calculating GDP, if using the expenditure method. It is not the only method.

Beaf: If oil disappears, Nigeria will simply crumble into the new Somalia.

Yes, people survived for centuries before oil, many by chasing wild animals on foot, fighting with tigers and climbing trees to harvest palmnuts etc. Those were the days when you simply threw away your twins (instead of bothering with extra mouths) and trekked from Lagos to Sokoto to sell crocodiles and salt (as a wealthy business person). It surely was great time with a life expectancy of maybe 25 years.

Nigeria has not grown technologically since those days and oil is our life support system. Take it away, and its back to Tarzan time.

That is an extreme case but I guess a more realistic country example would be Kenya. There are many African countries without Oil and many of them are doing better than Somalia. Somalia's problem is more political than economic. With Nigeria, having arguably the most resourceful and intelligent, I am sure it WILL not turn to Somalia. It will only turn to Somalia, if it experiences a cataclysmic political explosion.

J12: Nice question you asked on "Where is the money from agriculture?"
Simple answer: Because it doesn't exist!
Benue state is the food basket of the nation, they are piss poor and depend on monthy stipends from the federal purse funded by crude oil. If agriculture is a huge revenue earner, why is the "food basket of the nation" not rich?

The money from Agriculture is in the pockets of the millions of small scale farmers. It is a lot of money but when you consider the millions that are dependent on its revenue, it falls short. Having said that, this debate is about GDP and not about standard of living or government budgeting.

Correct.

Nigeria's economy is like 30-40% oil. And this is in fact (one of) the slowest growing parts of the economy.

So as time progresses, oil will represent an even smaller fraction of the economy.

Katsumoto: At the risk of sounding redundant, government spending is one of the components used in calculating GDP, if using the expenditure method. It is not the only method.

It accounts for 95% of our growth engine. Nigerians produce absolutely nothing.

Katsumoto: That is an extreme case but I guess a more realistic country example would be Kenya. There are many African countries without Oil and many of them are doing better than Somalia. Somalia's problem is more political than economic. With Nigeria, having arguably the most resourceful and intelligent, I am sure it WILL not turn to Somalia. It will only turn to Somalia, if it experiences a cataclysmic political explosion.

Kenya has a much more diversified economy than Nigeria. Financial services and telecomms provide 62% of their GDP and their well on their way up the developmental ladder, pioneering several high tech solutions (eg mobile commerce). Nigeria on the other hand gets 40% of GDP from oil, 80% of Government earnings (from which LG's, states, ministries etc are paid - salaries and allocations) and 95% of foreign exchange comes from oil. It is a sorry economy indeed; a very primitive state of affairs.

If oil dries up tomorrow, there will be [b]immediate [/b]cannibalism, war, armed robbery like never before seen, local warlords will take over; in fact Somalia would seem like Eldorado.

The only solution is to argue and demonstrate vigorously for true federalism and the severing of the Abuja umbilical cord. That alone is what can stop us going the Somalia route. We only have about 10 years left to get that done. If we fail? Mayhem and hell.

Katsumoto: The money from Agriculture is in the pockets of the millions of small scale farmers. It is a lot of money but when you consider the millions that are dependent on its revenue, it falls short. Having said that, this debate is about GDP and not about standard of living or government budgeting.

Ya! Those small scale farmers can barely feed themselves, most cannot even afford to send their kids to school.
Take away oil and they wouldn't have any roads to ferry their produce to market on etc. Life would quickly attain a stone age aura.

shymmex: Liars getting roasted by economists..

Beaf, go create some fun pics, slowpoke. bwahahaha

I don't think you are still getting what you posted up there really actually means. Firstly let us correlate this with development. Government earns very little from the Agric sector, in fact government (state and federal) funds the agric sector with income it gets overwhelmingly from oil. Again, Nigerians do not pay tax, we don't even really pay VAT because of how significant the informal economy is in the country. Nigeria is a country where development is still heavily driven by government so the point above is actually an important point and a big deal.

40% GDP aggregated to the agricultural sector simply put, means more people(or a larger chunk of the earning of everyone) comes directly from agriculture than oil, which makes sense since there is so much arable land in the country. What should alarm you is that oil accounts for as much as it does.

Second point, with the way Nigeria currently is, if there is an increase tomorrow in GDP from agriculture, it most likely would translate to more people getting involved in the sector which is not as good a picture as you might think when you analyse what this means. Agriculture in Nigeria is still very heavily subsistence based, there is very little industrialisation (which is what grows the country). The more mechanised and efficient this process becomes, the less number of people would make their living directly from agriculture - does not have to but would very likely mean some decrease in GDP from agric (and if we don't import equipment and actually manufacture then this means increased GDP for manufacture)

Linked to the second point, an increase in GDP in say the agric sector means there is a bigger pie to eat from not that one section of the pie has gotten bigger at the expense of the other which you wrongly deduce.

What people found audacious about your comments is a lack of understanding of the above considering the state Nigeria currently is in. Your postulation is VERY simplistic, and the comment about 'teaching a sector of the country' about such things even more funny since that section also earns a significant chunk of GDP from agriculture too. Agriculture is NOT what has brought development in Nigeria in the past 3 decades. It has allowed people make a living, but it has contributed very little to the resources (money) used to fund development.

Oil does not represent "95% of our growth engine", whatever that even means.

GDP growth of the oil sector in Nigeria has been flat or negative over the past few years...

^
If you don't know what I mean by growth engine, it would make sense to ask rather than talking blind. No?
Economics and development are not areas that can be driven by gut feeling or emotion.

Oil revenue is a source of fx and is what the lazy govt and its Psycophants are dependent on.

However agriculture is the major employer and main contributor to Nigeria's economic output.

Our GDP is being rebased, according to NOI, and once this is done the GDP should "rise" from under $300bn to around $400bn. Most of that "increase" will not be oil related as oil's addition to GDP is easily ascertainable.

Only buffoons will think that 160m people live off oil alone, especially when the value from oil is captured by the IOCs, Govt and their lackeys.

VoodooDoll: Oil revenue is a source of fx and is what the lazy govt and its Psycophants are dependent on.

However agriculture is the major employer and main contributor to Nigeria's economic output.

Our GDP is being rebased, according to NOI, and once this is done the GDP should "rise" from under $300bn to around $400bn. Most of that "increase" will not be oil related as oil's addition to GDP is easily ascertainable.

Only buffoons will think that 160m people live off oil alone, especially when the value from oil is captured by the IOCs, Govt and their lackeys.

Let us not turn our backs to the truth. You raise valid points (especially the part in bold) but the truth is most of the infrastructure around the country has been built by oil. The money has not been used as efficiently as it could have been but let us not lie to ourselves. Until we restructure our economy and government starts collecting taxes, that is the way it will remain. Agric did not build Abuja. In Nigeria very little outside the Agric sector benefit from Agric.

VoodooDoll: Oil revenue is a source of fx and is what the lazy govt and its Psycophants are dependent on.

However agriculture is the major employer and main contributor to Nigeria's economic output.

Our GDP is being rebased, according to NOI, and once this is done the GDP should "rise" from under $300bn to around $400bn. Most of that "increase" will not be oil related as oil's addition to GDP is easily ascertainable.

Only buffoons will think that 160m people live off oil alone, especially when the value from oil is captured by the IOCs, Govt and their lackeys.

There is no point insulting people, because the truth is too bitter for you to swallow. Leave that for motor park touts and area boys.
When the rebasing of the economy has been done (which you seem to think will make farmers richer), then you might have the opportunity of ecstatic farmers sharing their bountiful largess with you. I imagine it will be a great day indeed! Lol!

On a per capita basis the oil rent seekers are richer than the agriculture workers, that is obvious. But on a total economy basis then agriculture is bigger.
Bear in mind that agriculture includes a vast array of things. Insults withdrawn as not deserved.

VoodooDoll: On a per capita basis the oil rent seekers are richer than the agriculture workers, that is obvious. But on a total economy basis then agriculture is bigger.
Bear in mind that agriculture includes a vast array of things. Insults withdrawn as not deserved.

But it is not really about that. Agriculture currently contributes very little to development and that is the simple truth. If a road is built in your hometown or homecity in MOST parts of Nigeria, there is a much higher probability it was funded from oil than agric, and that is the truth (of course the percentage will vary from state to state). The argument will only hold water if we started getting more taxes (directly or indirectly) from the agric sector. People might be earning a living from agric, but what is bringing them infrastructure isn't that.

Beaf: ^
If you don't know what I mean by growth engine, it would make sense to ask rather than talking blind. No?
Economics and development are not areas that can be driven by gut feeling or emotion.

The onus is on you to define new terminology that you introduce (e.g. '95% of our growth engine'), not on me to ask what you mean.

VoodooDoll: Only buffoons will think that 160m people live off oil alone, especially when the value from oil is captured by the IOCs, Govt and their lackeys.

correct yarn

VoodooDoll: Oil revenue is a source of fx and is what the lazy govt and its Psycophants are dependent on.

However agriculture is the major employer and main contributor to Nigeria's economic output.

Our GDP is being rebased, according to NOI, and once this is done the GDP should "rise" from under $300bn to around $400bn. Most of that "increase" will not be oil related as oil's addition to GDP is easily ascertainable.

Only buffoons will think that 160m people live off oil alone, especially when the value from oil is captured by the IOCs, Govt and their lackeys.

I see this!

Firstly, I'm not bothered about the GDP figures because these figures are manipulated for political gains. I'm more bothered about the components of the foreign exchange reserves. Crude oil and Gas is the chief earner of FOREX.

Take away the earnings from crude and what you would see is a massive depletion in our reserves. How do we meet our needs for basic consumer goods which are imported? What you would see is a serious currency crisis. Inflation would almost make the Naira valueless just like we saw in Zimbabwe and in Argentina in the 1990s.

Don't be deceived. I would have taken more time to through the CBN statistical bulletin to illustrate this point. I don't like the whole noise of our "oyel", however, it is equally annoying that we seem to depend on crude oil to sustain our economy.

Dede1: You seem to be ignorantly held in delusional crucibles. If you think crude oil is the only and major exporter earner of Nigeria, you must be drunk on crude oil. Real Estate later knwon as Nigeria was performing equitable fine in all aspects of human endeavor before the discovery of crude oil. Since crude oil was struck, Nigeria has become a basket of political acrimony, tribal hatred, religious intolerance, humanistic antagonism, unbridled corruption and retrogressive growth.

I really want disintegration of Nigeria by any means available so that few goons in Nigeria would realize they would have been better off without crude oil and the second half of the goons would realize they do not have crude oil after all.

Dede Mugu i wu onye ara. Come on get out of hia.

J12: Nice question you asked on "Where is the money from agriculture?"
Simple answer: Because it doesn't exist!
Benue state is the food basket of the nation, they are piss poor and depend on monthy stipends from the federal purse funded by crude oil. If agriculture is a huge revenue earner, why is the "food basket of the nation" not rich?

No the money exists, they are with the farmers. The farmers use the money to sustain themselves and their families. These farmers are not being paid by the government with Abuja oil money. Let us even agree that Borno State Govt cannot pay his civil servants without oil money from Abuja, the question is; what is the % of the civil servants of Borno State to the whole population of Borno State? Now you will understand why Agriculture is the major source of income of Borno people because the earn/feed/survive more income from Agriculure than from Abuja oil money.

Beaf: It accounts for 95% of our growth engine. Nigerians produce absolutely nothing.

We are pulling figures from thin air Beaf. How can anyone say Nigerians produce nothing? There are lots of industries in Nigeria that produce many goods from plastics to alcohol, to beverages. Second, there are many strong service industries in Nigeria such as telecomms, entertainment, food services, recreational, etc

I suspect that you say to deflect criticism from GEJ, but the blame for the current malaise is not his alone; so why malign all Nigerians simply because successive governments haven't used funds judiciously?

Beaf: Kenya has a much more diversified economy than Nigeria. Financial services and telecomms provide 62% of their GDP and their well on their way up the developmental ladder, pioneering several high tech solutions (eg mobile commerce). Nigeria on the other hand gets 40% of GDP from oil, 80% of Government earnings (from which LG's, states, ministries etc are paid - salaries and allocations) and 95% of foreign exchange comes from oil. It is a sorry economy indeed; a very primitive state of affairs.

If oil dries up tomorrow, there will be [b]immediate [/b]cannibalism, war, armed robbery like never before seen, local warlords will take over; in fact Somalia would seem like Eldorado.

The only solution is to argue and demonstrate vigorously for true federalism and the severing of the Abuja umbilical cord. That alone is what can stop us going the Somalia route. We only have about 10 years left to get that done. If we fail? Mayhem and hell.

Saying that Kenya has a more diversified economy is a personal opinion. You are of that position because it is your view that the oil industry is the only industry in Nigeria. Where did you get the figures of Kenya's GDP from? It is instructive that you use Kenya whose Agric industry contributes approximately 20% but employs 75% of the population. How did you arrive at oil being 40% of GDP? Are you using data from a source different from that posted by the OP?

I am with you on the adoption of true federalism or confederationism but with a president who has absolute control of the National Assembly, why isn't this being tabled? Anyway lets not digress too much.

Your prophesy about Nigeria is merely a doomsday one. Only war can produce such a result in Nigeria.

Beaf: There is no point insulting people, because the truth is too bitter for you to swallow. Leave that for motor park touts and area boys.
When the rebasing of the economy has been done (which you seem to think will make farmers richer), then you might have the opportunity of ecstatic farmers sharing their bountiful largess with you. I imagine it will be a great day indeed! Lol!

Hey, go wash your skin negro.