₦airaland Forum

samorobo:
If control a country’s economy and interfering in their internal politics is not influence then I don’t what else influence could be described as. Perhaps you need to update your archaic dictionary.

Your G20 title abd all that havent give any influence whatsoever on Nigeria,so really what’s the point. You are just a mere $300bn economy piggybacking on the effort of other sane countries in those categories.

My bru and you think SA doesn't have the same influence? Are you good bro?

Also being on G20, BRICS ect ect means we have the ability to make decisions that affect Africa as a whole.... Also I've clearly showed you that SAs GDP is $436 billion

GeneralDae:
So how have you influenced Africa with all these? Give some examples.

those are international decision making bodies... Meaning SA has the ability to influence decisions wrt G20 and BRICS that directly effect Africa especially economically

samorobo:
You found it,we bought. Superior move.
Elon musk is the new owner of Twitter,who ever found it is irrelevant.

-uhmm nope I just say a video where a certain American guy that relocated to SA complained of enduring load shedding in Cape Town for about 10 hours. Now that right there is Nigeria. So permit me to gloat my laatije.

Twitter is still twitter just like shop rite is still Shoprite.... And it not a superior move to buy a business..... Its just business, either way we make money.

- there has never been loadshedding for longer than 2.5 hours....that 10 hours you talking about is a made up story

jl115:
those are international decision making bodies... Meaning SA has the ability to influence decisions wrt G20 and BRICS that directly effect Africa especially economically

I am asking for the evidence of South Africa's influence on the continent through these bodies.

For example: Whatever Germany does in Europe is significant for all of Europe. Because of Germany, Greece is alive today. Germany's body language and policies towards Russia and Russian gas has effects on the European union, etc etc. So this means Germany is not just the most diversified economy but they are also the powerhouse of the EU even with France there.

Is South Africa more of a powerhouse in the AU than Ethiopia or even small Rwanda?

samorobo:
The mere fact we could bully you with outrageous prices and have you come beg for mercy doesn’t position you as the one with the influence,in fact if there is anything it’s speak cowardice,weakness,pushover and the lists go on and on.

Influence comes with power. You don’t value anyone’s but your decision. You speak and you want it done otherwise your inferiors face the consequences. You going to beg and nag to the media is nothing short of sissy-ness. I hope the picture is clear this time

Bully MTN? If you wanted to bully MTN you could've kicked them out of Nigeria or nationalised them.... But no you gave them a slap on the wrist for potentially aiding Boko Haram......MTN has bullied the Nigerian government, not the other way around

GeneralDae:
I am asking for the evidence of South Africa's influence on the continent through these bodies.

For example: Whatever Germany does in Europe is significant for all of Europe. Because of Germany, Greece is alive today. Germany's body language and policies towards Russia and Russian gas has effects on the European union, etc etc. So this means Germany is not just the most diversified economy but they are also the powerhouse of the EU.

Is South Africa more of a powerhouse in the AU than Ethiopia or even small Rwanda?

I never said SA has the same influence as Germany, I said it has the most influence in Africa.... That doesn't mean it has the same influence as China or the US...it simply means it has more influence than any other African country, even if that influence is not that apparent or that big.

jl115:
Bully MTN? If you wanted to bully MTN you could've kicked them out of Nigeria or nationalised them.... But no you gave them a slap on the wrist for potentially aiding Boko Haram......MTN has bullied the Nigerian government, not the other way around

The fines on MTN and Multichoice made them complain bitterly almost involving your Government in the matter. If they wanted to leave at that point, they would have done so and the Nigerian Government was aware they could decide to leave as a consequence before taking that decision. Some South African companies have left or sold their companies to Nigerian firms afterall.

jl115:
I never said SA has the same influence as Germany, I said it has the most influence in Africa.... That doesn't mean it has the same influence as China or the US...it simply means it has more influence than any other African country, even if that influence is not that apparent or that big.

But there is no example of it showing that so called influence. What policies of South Africa have influenced the continent or the AU for example. That is the question.

GeneralDae:
The fines on MTN and Multichoice made them complain bitterly almost involving your Government in the matter. If they wanted to leave at that point, they would have done so and the Nigerian Government was aware they could decide to leave as a consequence before taking that decision. Some South African companies have left or sold their companies to Nigerian companies afterall.

of course they complained!!.....its business bru!! In fact they complained so much that your Government more than halved the fines......

GeneralDae:
But there is no example of it showing that so called influence. What policies of South Africa have influenced the continent or the AU for example. That is the question.

Well firstly we are the only country to have chaired the AU twice...so yeah...

But like I said no African country has the influence of Germany in the EU.... We have regional powers and in those regions you can see the sphere of influence of SA, Nigeria and to a degree Kenya....... What SA does have is more soft power thanks to being on G20, BRICS, EU partner ect ect.... And that's is why SA has the biggest influence in Africa vs other African countries

rvp2018:
This really the problem with Raila and most his supporters. You're suffering from tunnel vision. You're so focused on Mt kenya that you've lost ground in your base. It's proverbial pursuing two birds in the bush and leaving the one at hand.

Even if you win some Mt kenya votes...unless you hit 60%...to go even with Ruto...you're dead.

Let me break it down.
MtKenya population is about 23% - 17.5% kikuyu,4.5% meru, Embu/Mbeere 1%.
Due to their population structure (more adults than kids) & higher turnout - their national voters share is higher - at 28% (rough estimate of 2017)
If turnout is subdued by 10% - that will slice off 2.8%
So this election MtKenya is 25% of the total expected voters nationally...about the size of entire rift valley province.

50% of that 12.5%....

The gap btw Jubilee and NASA in 2017 was about 9-10%.
If Ruto loses half MtKenya(12.5%) but retain the rest of Jubilee he would be around 54.5% - 12.5% - (42%)

But we know Ruto has gained by campaigning for 5yrs nationally - all over - with Hustler Revolution - so give and take - 3-4% - like he helped Jubilee in 2017 improve from 51% to 55% (rounding off).

So Ruto essentially with half MtKenya is 45%. That is UDA Ruto - that for argument sake has lost 50% of MtKenya

And that is without Kenya Kwanza.

Weta brings Bukusu votes...he has never run but he is influential in Bukusu who are the largest subtribe in Luhyaland (give him 2% nationally - I think Bukusu are 5% nationally - maDVD last time got 1% - Ruto already has had his play - so I think he really add Ruto 2%)
MaDVD brings Maragoli and other Luhyas...he got 4-5% in 2013. It didn't quite show in NASA - who improve slightly because Raila like he does hammorage more votes than maDVD brough to NASA from Amani caolition.

So at 45% UDA with half MtKenya (for argument sake) - with MaDVD 5% - Ruto is already 50% - with Weta - he is at 52%.

Ruto still has little play from Mutua & Kingi (latest acquisition maybe worth 1% nationally) - to afford to lose another 10% of MtKenya (3%) - and still win by 51% - a whisker.

In Short for Raila to go 50-50 with RUto - he better be playing around 60% of MtKenya.

But reality - Ruto is not losing 50% of MtKenya. Ruto is losing 20-30% of MtKenya - that about 7.5% nationally- so he essentially starts at 54.5% - minus 7.5% ---which is around 47% of 2017 as his UDA base. He gains another 7% - and wins by 55%.

Comeback on the 9th August. The result will be the usual. Ruto 55% - Raila 45% if not worse - Ukambani for example Raila is doing very badly.

And these things are easy....get an excel...and I can show you the tribal percentage of each county...crunch the numbers.

Raila will lose because while he is focussed on gaining Mt kenya (so far evidence suggest he isnt making much headway) - Ruto will double or triple what Uhuru got in 2017 in former Raila strongholds like Western, Ukambani, and Coast. That will negate all the little gains Raila will in Mt kenya.

And that really is Raila political story...a sisypean curse where he get into next election cycle...destroy his coalition and then start again..instead of consolidating that support and trying to get the 5-7% he has so far missed in three elections..he is a month from his 5th (or 6th if you add 1982) loss.

Same same 2017 story - He gained MaDVD - improved in Luhyaland to 85% - but lost votes elsewhere - so Jubilee improved from 51% to 55%. In 2017 his maths was simple - he had 44% - he only needed to gain 5% from MaDVD - but he forgot that he needed not to leak votes elsewhere.

2013 - he started with 45% of 2007 - all he needed to win was keep kalenjin in ODM...and try to get 5% from Kalonzo. He failed.

2007 - Oranges Referendum had won by 58% - all they needed to do was to retain Kalonzo - they failed - Ukambani left for ODM-Kenya and Raila was rigged out because his numbers were not good enough to beat an incumbent.

He thinks Karua will give him Mt. Kenya! And Tayser thinks so too!? He's not and has never been a planner but a schemer which is his undying problem. Shortsighted and reactive and behind the curve.

It is when the two words become used as verbs or as adjectives that some interesting distinctions of emphasis begin to emerge. To plan is usually regarded as idealistic, rational, far-sighted, noble; to scheme, on the other hand, is regarded as devious, irresponsible, subversive, underhand.

GeneralDae:
But there is no example of it showing that so called influence. What policies of South Africa have influenced the continent or the AU for example. That is the question.

You do not have a clue how international relations, deplomacy and associans/affiliations works. Judging by your array of questions.

AfriqueDuZuid:
You do not have a clue how international relations, deplomacy and associans/affiliations works. Judging by your array of questions.

Educate me please. Because there is no known influence of South Africa on the continent to my knowledge. If there is, you can point me to one.

GeneralDae:
Educate me please. Because there is no known influence of South Africa on the continent to my knowledge. If there is, you can point me to one.

Exactly your knowledge is limited that's why you don't know

AfriqueDuZuid:
Exactly your knowledge is limited that's why you don't know

Ad Hominem.

Yes that been Raila problem. He cannot plan long-term. He lives for the moment. So we sisypeahn situation where just before he tip the stones; he re-start again. It's inconceivable that he has not won - 1997 to date is - 25yrs?

kikuyu1:
He thinks Karua will give him Mt. Kenya! And Tayser thinks so too!? He's not and has never been a planner but a schemer which is his undying problem. Shortsighted and reactive and behind the curve.

AfriqueDuZuid:
Exactly your knowledge is limited that's why you don't know

Since he has a limited knowledge on the topic, u can do well to clear his ignorance by teaching him what he needs to know..... But unfortunately, u lack the prerequisite knowledge of which u're accusing another person of.

And for u to know, being listed among a body, a foreign body for that doesn't make u have a de facto influence over the continent.

And until jln15 deliberately tell us a significant impact of SA, being among BRICS, influenced d continent, or a particular decision/action/assistance that has been meted out to the continent by BRICS because of SA's input.... All he's been saying is mere deflection.

Tayser:
@Kikuyu1, told you couple weeks ago about a 'Martha Effect'. You almost put a noose around my neck. Its actually confirmed. What do your latest more believable numbers say? According to Prof Kagwanja, over the past month, she has extended Azimio's lead in the Mountain by 10 %. FYI, the Star is aligned to Ruto. As I said before, this will be the most clear cut elections since 2003. RVP actually believed Kyuks will be blindly led by Ruto like goats to the abattoir.

This woman has removed 20% Kikuyu votes from UDA. It's crystal clear that Azimio is the winning team. Before he joined Azimio, Rao only had 20% kyuks votes - right now, He has a whopping 40%. The figure is expected to go high with UDA gubernatorial divide.

40% means a clean win for Azimio. Baba has maintained his die-hard supporters since the day he started chasing the big seat. Kikuyus are now behind him, that has never been the norm.

Shma:
This woman has removed 20% Kikuyu votes from UDA. It's crystal clear that Azimio is a winning team. Before he joined Azimio, Rao only had 20% kyuks votes - right now, He has a whopping 40%. The figure is expected to go high with UDA gubernatorial divide.

Truly,I now see why it was mooted opinion pollsters give their[b] methodology[/b] a decade ago. False expectations are set up among mortuary attendants,semi literates,shoe shiners and similar simple people intoxicated by populism leading to equally false claims of rigging!

kikuyu1:
Truly,I now see why it was mooted opinion pollsters give their[b] methodology[/b] a decade ago. False expectations are set up among mortuary attendants,semi literates,shoe shiners, and similar simple people intoxicated by populism leading to equally false claims of rigging!

What are you saying?

This guy - manyora, is a professor & very deep into political analysis. He has confirmed already that Raila is the 5th. As a learned person, I've confirmed that Raila is the 5th.

He will give you insights into what we're trying to tell you.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moN887VZAAE

Tayser:
Just in case you missed it in the screenshot!
https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/raila-s-masterstrokes-scattering-ruto-s-numbers-3859786

"God built the universe on numbers,” said Pythagoras. As the cliché goes: “Numbers don't lie,” perhaps because they give power and rule the universe, too. This rings true of Kenya’s August 9, 2022 General Election. Victory will ride on the almighty trinity of numbers, resources and strategy – although the spiritually oriented thinkers insist on ‘the hand of God’.

But who currently has the numbers? Until a month ago, crystal gazers and oracles of science alike gave the numbers to Ruto; and understandably so. Kenya’s number two hewed a campaign strategy, devoted resources and sprinted ahead long before the whistle blew.


The game-changer is the battle for the running mates, which Odinga won and Ruto seemingly lost. Odinga’s numbers shot meteorically soon after naming former Justice Minister and Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua as his running mate. On the flipside, Ruto’s numbers tipped after he announced the current MP for Mathira, Rigathi Gachagua, as his running mate.

Besides changing the fortunes of the candidates, the running-mate question has also impacted on their respective strategies. Ruto’s game plan has been to retain intact the ‘tyranny of numbers’ hoisted on Kikuyu-Kalenjin détente that enabled him and Kenyatta to win and retain power over the past decade. But this is morphing into a risky gamble. In 2013, Kenyatta scraped through the 50-per-cent-plus-one mark with only 8,000 votes! It would be a tall order for Ruto to achieve the same feat. The big mobilising factor in 2013 was the International Criminal Court (ICC), which is now absent. In Mt Kenya, Kenyatta and Odinga have ceased to be the boogeymen for vote mobilisation. And the ideological grip of the ‘hustler versus dynasty’ narrative has wilted in the heat of campaigns.

Ruto’s strategists failed to diligently scan all the horizons. Perhaps Gachagua, a mobiliser and bare-knuckled fighter, is what Ruto needed to neutralise Kenyatta’s long-awaited blitz to dislodge Ruto and win back Mt Kenya for Azimio. But with Kenyatta’s last-minute decision to stay away from electioneering, a ‘gladiator’ as a running mate is a heavy millstone around Ruto’s neck.

Odinga’s masterstroke was naming Karua as his running mate, a classic buy-one-get-three deal: An untainted and courageous leader to spearhead his national campaign against corruption; a veteran leader and respected daughter of Mt Kenya to help him ‘climb the mountain’; and an experienced and credible women leader to win over the female vote.

However, delivering at least 60 per cent of the Mt Kenya bloc to Azimio is key to Karua’s own political future. Over the past month, she has extended Azimio’s lead in the Mountain region by more than 10 per cent.

This is the reality on the ground. The 5th is already known. Gachagua is even desperate to ferry people to his rally - in his own - hometown.

The desperation is screaming. UDA is doomed.

Mombasa.

theenchanter:
Since he has a limited knowledge on the topic, u can do well to clear his ignorance by teaching him what he needs to know..... But unfortunately, u lack the prerequisite knowledge of which u're accusing another person of.

And for u to know, being listed among a body, a foreign body for that doesn't make u have a de facto influence over the continent.

And until jln15 deliberately tell us a significant impact of SA, being among BRICS, influenced d continent, or a particular decision/action/assistance that has been meted out to the continent by BRICS because of SA's input.... All he's been saying is mere deflection.

He will keep deflecting

kikuyu1:
Truly,I now see why it was mooted opinion pollsters give their methodology a decade ago. False expectations are set up among mortuary attendants,semi literates,shoe shiners and similar simple people intoxicated by populism leading to equally false claims of rigging!

You're supposed to take dissenting opinion like a man. Assuming Shma is all those, his single vote still equals yours. The same polls you can't agree with previously said Ruto was leading by a wide margin. Never saw you complain. Now that they don't favour your political Messiah they are all evil and meant for simple minds.

Shma:
This woman has removed 20% Kikuyu votes from UDA. It's crystal clear that Azimio is the winning team. Before he joined Azimio, Rao only had 20% kyuks votes - right now, He has a whopping 40%. The figure is expected to go high with UDA gubernatorial divide.

40% means a clean win for Azimio. Baba has maintained his die-hard supporters since the day he started chasing the big seat. Kikuyus are now behind him, that has never been the norm.

Man take care Kenya Kwisha fanatics will clobber you

[right][/right]

Shma:
This is the reality on the ground. The 5th is already known. Gachagua is even desperate to ferry people to his rally - in his own - hometown.

The desperation is screaming. UDA is doomed.

The political geniuses can't understand how the choice between Karua and Gachagua was plain and obvious. Ruto went for Gachagua's billions and lost the masses. He will have no one else to blame except himself. Never seen such a classic political own goal in my life.

kikuyu1:
He thinks Karua will give him Mt. Kenya! And Tayser thinks so too!? He's not and has never been a planner but a schemer which is his undying problem. Shortsighted and reactive and behind the curve.

No, nigga. The problem is that politics for you is like religion. The more contrary evidence is given to you, even from seasoned experts and numbers from the ground, the more entrenched the belief in your own convictions becomes.

theenchanter:
Since he has a limited knowledge on the topic, u can do well to clear his ignorance by teaching him what he needs to know..... But unfortunately, u lack the prerequisite knowledge of which u're accusing another person of.

And for u to know, being listed among a body, a foreign body for that doesn't make u have a de facto influence over the continent.

And until jln15 deliberately tell us a significant impact of SA, being among BRICS, influenced d continent, or a particular decision/action/assistance that has been meted out to the continent by BRICS because of SA's input.... All he's been saying is mere deflection.

Don't have time for that, especially to people suffering from backfire effect.

Study do your own research

AfriqueDuZuid:
Don't have time for that, especially to people suffering from backfire effect.

Study do your own research

And since u don't have time for that.... Or for people who u think are suffering from backfire effect, then u shouldn't be in the prime position to make remark over the issue.

theenchanter:
And since u don't have time for that.... Or for people who u think are suffering from backfire effect, then u shouldn't be in the prime position to make remark over the issue.

Since you have internet you can research it

AfriqueDuZuid:
Since you have internet you can research it

lol

Tayser:
No, nigga. The problem is that politics for you is like religion. The more contrary evidence is given to you, even from seasoned experts and numbers from the ground, the more entrenched the belief in your own convictions becomes.

REALLY, dude? After ALL this time since this thread began in 2016 I've ALWAYS been a believer in empirical evidence and logic: IIRC you joined 2017. Tell me when I've ever NOT been a student of data.
The net never forgets: think back to the comparative consumption stats and sociocultural dumpster diving that revealed PTSS disorders like the ongoing Trokosi abomination, child trafficking and sacrifice. That's me- I trust ONLY in the data which I interrogate and countercheck. The real data not dubious polls plus my ear to the ground convinces me assuming Karua can deliver Mt Kenya to RAO reminds me of the 90s when KANU assumed Kamotho could deliver Muranga in the 90s.
NOT GONNA HAPPEN!
Anyway.....