Honestly with all calculation it still baffles me what the strategy he (tinubu) is banking on to win this election with the reality on the ground.

Let's look at the core north, is it possible for tinubu to get 10% from the northeast and north west with Kwankwaso and atiku on the ballot? Or will the minority christians in those region give their votes to him? For what reasons?

North central will this region dominated by christians whose faith in Christ are highly threatened by Muslim extremist and whose farmland have been turned to killing field of their people by jihadist while he (tinubu) and the government he bragged he brought to power looked the other way. Will they even give a second thought to a candidate who entertained a Muslim Muslim ticket.

South south and southeast : it is obvious that tinubu is highly rejected in this region probably because of his role removing one of their own Goodluck Jonathan and installing a northerner, an act they considered the highest height of southern betrayal. And above all with one of their own obi also strongly on the ballot. It will be a miracle if he get up to 20% here.

Southwest tinubu is one of theirs he gets here
But if he dares the southwest christians with Muslim Muslim ticket, the the Owo mascre will take revenge sooner. And wether Muslim Muslim ticket or not the Christians in that region also understand the game.
Lagos from where he could have gotten a bulk vote is already under the tight fist of youths.

So with all honesty I asked where will tinubu get the number votes required to become the Nigerian president in 2023 ??

He will get the votes from Iragbiji to win.

Interesting

A lot of us in the North are tired of APC not necessarily because of Tinubu but because of the general profile and antecedents of the party APC, as witnessed over the years

Also a reasonably good number even among the Muslims don't support a same- religion ticket

₦10,000 × 15,000,000 PVC and votes. = Presidency

Cost of Presidency votes ₦150billion or $250 million USD

*Number of Local Government Authority 774

*Number of Poling Unit 176,846

* Minimum Number of deployed police per poling unit1 total police 200,000 cost to bribe ₦200,000,000

* Number of party agent per poling unit 1, cost of service for a day ₦10,000 . Total ₦200,000,000

* INEC adhoc bribe ₦1,000,000,000

* International observers bribe ₦200,000,000

* Journalist brown envelope ₦500,000,000

Estimated Grand Total $1 billion USD, ₦600 billion Naira

****Financing partners****

CBN

FG

Lagos State IRS

Alpha Beta consulting

Chinese EXIM bank

Chinese Government

Dangote PLC

APC state Governors


***International Partners*****

Association of Islamic countries

Democratic party of United States (Tinubu is a card carrying member of Dem)

United States Diplomats (seeking United Nations security Council vote against Russia)

Isreal (seeking a vote against state of Palestine, trying to join African Union without objection of SouthAfrica and Egypt through the backing of Nigeria)

****LEGAL PARTNERS*****

*Acting CJN Ariwoola from Oyo State, and former board director of Odua group of companies

*Femi Falana SAN

*Olanipekun SAN

*Osinbajo SAN

*Akeredolu SAN





.

It’s going to be the most complicated election, with Kwankwaso and then Atiku in the north, it will be hard, he has to forget south east and south south, He surely will win lagos but I doubt if he will with upto 70 percent due to the large number of youths, he can’t win island at all, the educated people are so much over there and will rather stuff their vote in their anus than give it to him. He sure will take south west, will that really be enough? I doubt so.
It will be a very interesting election, I’ve also been thinking where Atiku will get his votes to win with Kwankwaso over there, Peter Obi scattered the entire thing for both Tinubu and Atiku and it’s will be interesting to watch

He might become the next president of Nigeria just the way he becomes the APC flag bearer.

Rigging remain the face of Nigeria politics.


And that is exactly what APC is up to .

Megabig:
It’s going to be the most complicated election, with Kwankwaso and then Atiku in the north, it will be hard, he has to forget south east and south south, He surely will win lagos but I doubt if he will with upto 70 percent due to the large number of youths, he can’t win island at all, the educated people are so much over there and will rather stuff their vote in their anus than give it to him. He sure will take south west, will that really be enough? I doubt so.
It will be a very interesting election, I’ve also been thinking where Atiku will get his votes to win with Kwankwaso over there, Peter Obi scattered the entire thing for both Tinubu and Atiku and it’s will be interesting to watch

I agreed with you, I think obi's chance is slightly better than all with the national acceptability his side.

Totilopussylick:
He might become the next president of Nigeria just the way he becomes the APC flag bearer.

Rigging remain the face of Nigeria politics.


And that is exactly what APC is up to .

With the new electoral act he can't rig.Besides The North and Buhari will not rig for him.

PaChukwudi44:

With the new electoral act he can't rig.Besides The North and Buhari will not rig for him.

This is not about the warfare of the country.

APC might want to remain in power for the next 8yrs same way PDP rule for 16yrs.

You don't expect them to lose to their rival

This election have a revolutionary undertones rigging will be so difficult even vote buying.

Why are ibos rattled by TINUBU? This type of obsession .

Omo nna, this election is not a do or die, and lose or win, what difference does it make?

Moh247:




₦10,000 × 15,000,000 PVC and votes. = Presidency

Cost of Presidency votes ₦150billion or $250 million USD

*Number of Local Government Authority 774

*Number of Poling Unit 176,846

* Minimum Number of deployed police per poling unit1 total police 200,000 cost to bribe ₦200,000,000

* Number of party agent per poling unit 1, cost of service for a day ₦10,000 . Total ₦200,000,000

* INEC adhoc bribe ₦1,000,000,000

* International observers bribe ₦200,000,000

* Journalist brown envelope ₦500,000,000

Estimated Grand Total $1 billion USD, ₦600 billion Naira

****Financing partners****

CBN

FG

Lagos State IRS

Alpha Beta consulting

Chinese EXIM bank

Chinese Government

Dangote PLC

APC state Governors



.

You are prepared with the Data...

Anyway, 2023 will be a different ball game from what is happening...People are fed up.

And Inflation keeps knocking..And it is 2estimated to be higher from Ember month..Meaning increased hardship.

50k to shop groceries hardly fill up sack bag..smh


APC was after snatching power, but not prepared to govern...It is their greatest undoing.


An this rate, even if IDI Amin becomes the president of Nigeria, I will move ahead...8years under Buhari deserve a survival party...

I will celebrate the day that Monumental failure hand over.

DiscoverID:
Why are ibos rattled by TINUBU? This type of obsession .

Your mates are here doing a wonderful analysis and you are spewing rubbish,are you well at all

Tinubu is not your typical ibo coward, against all odds he contested and won the APC presidential primaries even when most of you clowns kept predicting rubbish.

Now, tell me, where will your Pandora thief get the votes to win? And I think the aforementioned should be your worries.

Totilopussylick:


This is not about the warfare of the country.

APC might want to remain in power for the next 8yrs same way PDP rule for 16yrs.

You don't expect them to lose to their rival

Hahaha, see the mindset of an average western APC supporter, let me tell you Nigeria has gone beyond that, don't ever think APC can rig 2023 election, in 2019, they were able to do that because buhari was incumbent and insisted that he will complete two terms , even with atiku comments and warning to inec, they can't , again to rig for tinubu against atiku and kwankwaso? That one Na national dream

07kjb:



Your mates are here doing a wonderful analysis and you are spewing rubbish,are you well at all

Wonderful analysis like how you kept saying Ahmed lawal is the northern consensus candidate? Like how ameachi was the chosen one? Like how the fulani will use and dump the yorubas?
Take your made in aba analysis and shove it into your rear behind.

Like I said, while you keep hating Tinubu and yorubas, why don't you equally tell us how the pandora Peter is going win this election.

Funny question
I see otherwise.
Nothing is going stop Tinubu from being the next President except God.
Going by your analysis, Tinubu should not have even gotten the ticket as APC Candidate. That should send strong signal that Tinubu is not in the class of Politician that can subjected to this lame analysis. He is simply astute, brilliant and smart. Watch out as it unfolds

Abdu81:
This election have a revolutionary undertones rigging will be so difficult even vote buying.

When we say rigging, I think it's important for us to understand how rigging happens. If all polling units (PUs) will use machines and results transmitted electronically during this election, it will significantly reduce the chances of rigging this election. All parties must have reliable agents in all the PUs.

More importantly, people can only rig where they are popular. It will be extremely difficult to have a Northerner rig the election for Tinubu when Atiku and Kwankwanso are on the ballot. Several reports have shown that APC members in the north put Atiku Abubukar pix in their posters to use his popularity to ride into power like they did with Buhari in the previous years.

In truth, I see that Peter Obi clearly has an edge in this election being the only popular Christian candidate in this race. Apart from being very qualified, many northern Christian minorities may decide to vote for him because it's only fair for a Southern Christian to take over from a northern Muslim. Yes, they will argue that Nigeria is an egalitarian and secular society, so a Muslim cannot take over from another Muslim.

Besides, Fulani herdsmen have really dealt with everyone and that will make the same demographics to want to vote for Southern Christian to feel safe in their country. However, Labour Party is relatively unpopular so he has a lot of work to do.

As for Tinubu, his people say he's a master strategist so he will sort himself out.

I forsee a runoff....

Abdu81:
I agreed with you, I think obi's chance is slightly better than all with the national acceptability his side.

Depends on how Labour Party campaigns in the north, if they can get 20-25 percent over there, it should be a done deal for them..

Moh247:




₦10,000 × 15,000,000 PVC and votes. = Presidency

Cost of Presidency votes ₦150billion or $250 million USD

*Number of Local Government Authority 774

*Number of Poling Unit 176,846

* Minimum Number of deployed police per poling unit1 total police 200,000 cost to bribe ₦200,000,000

* Number of party agent per poling unit 1, cost of service for a day ₦10,000 . Total ₦200,000,000

* INEC adhoc bribe ₦1,000,000,000

* International observers bribe ₦200,000,000

* Journalist brown envelope ₦500,000,000

Estimated Grand Total $1 billion USD, ₦600 billion Naira

****Financing partners****

CBN

FG

Lagos State IRS

Alpha Beta consulting

Chinese EXIM bank

Chinese Government

Dangote PLC

APC state Governors



.

Boy! So vote buying is now a thing the APC has brought to full glare in our polity? Saying it boldly that the CBN will sponsor your vote buying escapades? Weren't you people supposed to fight corruption and bring Change? Oh I forgot you people are the leaders of corruption now.

Well this presidential elections, money will fail people. Your Tifnubu isn't even a bigger money bag than Atiku LoL.

No mind the wishful thinking he called analysis
Peter Obi will come a very distant 3rd if not 4th.
Tinubu supporters are not online. Don't measure support by the noise on social media
Quote me

DiscoverID:


Wonderful analysis like how you kept saying Ahmed lawal is the northern consensus candidate? Like how ameachi was the chosen one? Like how the fulani will use and dump the yorubas?
Take your made in aba analysis and shove it into your rear behind.

Like I said, while you keep hating Tinubu and yorubas, why don't you equally tell us how the pandora Peter is going win this election.

Tinubu is hoping to get his votes from the effects of bullion van .

Right now, Tinubu has the best prospect of winning out of all the candidates. This is not even up for debate.

The only thing that can tilt things towards Atiku a bit is if Obi withdraws and that doesn't seem likely.


Vote Tinubu 2023. Vote APC.

Munzy14:

You are prepared with the Data...

Anyway, 2023 will be a different ball game from what is happening...People are fed up.

And Inflation keeps knocking..And it is 2estimated to be higher from Ember month..Meaning increased hardship.

50k to shop groceries hardly fill up sack bag..smh


APC was after snatching power, but not prepared to govern...It is their greatest undoing.


An this rate, even if IDI Amin becomes the president of Nigeria, I will move ahead...8years under Buhari deserve a survival party...

I will celebrate the day that Monumental failure hand over.

100 million Nigerians live on less than $2 dollars a day, that's ₦1000 per day

₦10,000 offered for a vote is over $15 USD or a week living cost

Now to give you a simple short story, on how poverty is a political tool weaponised

Pick up a live chicken, and start painfully pulling out it's feathers one after the other till you get it fully skin naked and dripping blood full of pain

Set the chicken free for half an hour

Return with a bag of maize (agbado) and millets

Put some in a pan and place it close to your feet

Soon hunger would make the chicken come back to you to feed forgetting the pain you caused it

Op to answer your question in simplest way,I hope you or your people won't open thread and ask this question again?the answer is Tinubu won't get vote anywhere,now that your qualification has been answered hope you are happy now?

God bless Mazi Bola Ahmed Tinubu incoming president of Federal Republic of Nigeria

PaChukwudi44:

With the new electoral act he can't rig.Besides The North and Buhari will not rig for him.

Can you please take out time to explain to us the specific provisions of the new electoral law that prevents rigging?

Don't forget that rigging is a multidimensional and hydra headed monster that includes vote buying, voter intimidation (preventing voters from voting in rival strongholds), security agent collusion, and compromising INEC itself, and even compromising the judiciary to upturn fair election results etc. How does the new electoral law preclude all of this? It is not enough to keep shouting about the new electoral law without breaking things down to the specifics.

From the look of things, 'rigging' is the only plan of Tinubu and the APC. They simply can't win the presidential election if they leave it to the voters to decide, and they know it. But I'm afraid their rigging plan is practical politics and there is very little to stop them.

bishopkay:


Boy! So vote buying is now a thing the APC has brought to full glare in our polity? Saying it boldly that the CBN will sponsor your vote buying escapades? Weren't you people supposed to fight corruption and bring Change? Oh I forgot you people are the leaders of corruption now.

Well this presidential elections, money will fail people. Your Tifnubu isn't even a bigger money bag than Atiku LoL.

My brother why you come they wail and rant for my mention like say I be Federal Government bayi..


Hope say give analysis of where Tinubu's vote would be coming from I gave mine you to give yours it's all hypothesis and guess

bishopkay:


Boy! So vote buying is now a thing the APC has brought to full glare in our polity? Saying it boldly that the CBN will sponsor your vote buying escapades? Weren't you people supposed to fight corruption and bring Change? Oh I forgot you people are the leaders of corruption now.

Well this presidential elections, money will fail people. Your Tifnubu isn't even a bigger money bag than Atiku LoL.

My brother why you come they wail and rant for my mention like say I be Federal Government bayi..


Hope say give analysis of where Tinubu's vote would be coming from I gave mine you to give yours it's all hypothesis and guess

You might be right I might be wrong

That's actually Tinubu, APC and all Tinubu's supporters headache..

NOT YOURS!!!

Worry more about your very own candidate, if you have one, will win

Abdu81:
Honestly with all calculation it still baffles me what the strategy he (tinubu) is banking on to win this election with the reality on the ground.

Let's look at the core north, is it possible for tinubu to get 10% from the northeast and north west with Kwankwaso and atiku on the ballot? Or will the minority christians in those region give their votes to him? For what reasons?

North central will this region dominated by christians whose faith in Christ are highly threatened by Muslim extremist and whose farmland have been turned to killing field of their people by jihadist while he (tinubu) and the government he bragged he brought to power looked the other way. Will they even give a second thought to a candidate who entertained a Muslim Muslim ticket.

South south and southeast : it is obvious that tinubu is highly rejected in this region probably because of his role removing one of their own Goodluck Jonathan and installing a northerner, an act they considered the highest height of southern betrayal. And above all with one of their own obi also strongly on the ballot. It will be a miracle if he get up to 20% here.

Southwest tinubu is one of theirs he gets here
But if he dares the southwest christians with Muslim Muslim ticket, the the Owo mascre will take revenge sooner. And wether Muslim Muslim ticket or not the Christians in that region also understand the game.
Lagos from where he could have gotten a bulk vote is already under the tight fist of youths.

So with all honesty I asked where will tinubu get the number votes required to become the Nigerian president in 2023 ??

Calculator, leave this man na.
What you don't know is tinubu wil get votes in the east, he might not win but he wil get votes there

Tinubu is probably hoping on Buhari to rig the election for him.


But even Buhari doesn't want Tinubu. Osinbajo would've been a more acceptable candidate all over the country, but Tinubu couldn't read the mood of the country because of his greed.

Even Yorubas wanted Osinbajo not Tinubu. I don't even see Tinubu winning SW.