₦airaland Forum

The season is appraoching and we are anticipating who becomes the next president. Here is my early prediction for the election considering party popularity, people's choice and influence. .

1. I am starting with the core north, I e. Northwest and northeast. These regions, from history usually give block votes to their kinsmen irrepective of party excluding Adamawa state. While some federal might may play some significant role for APC here but I see Kwankwaso and Atiku securing a lot of votes because of their nature of voting.
I see Kwankwaso winning Kano and maybe either Zamfara, Kebbi and Jigawa.
I see Atiku winning Adamawa, Sokoto, Bauchi, he will get massive figures in the remaining states. Tinubu might win Katsina and Kaduna if and if El-Rufai and Buhari are with him genuinely. However, the core northern votes is going to be shared, whoever wins will win with a slim figure. Obi can only pick little votes here and there in these regions.

2. North Central: this region is very diversified and they are accepting the Obi movement faster than the.core north. I see PDP dragging kwara with APC because of Saraki's influence, Kogi will be between APC and Obi movement but I see APC winning if Yahaya Bello is truly with Tinubu.
Peter Obi will win Abuja, it's not negotiable.
Plateau state is going to be a battle between PDP and Peter Obi.
Benue is going to be a battle between PDP and Peter Obi.
Niger state vote like core northerners
Nassarawa state will be the tight.

3. South East and South South: The regions is going to be between Obi and PDP structure but I see Obi winning Atiku in a free and fair election. Atiku will get votes because of the existing PDP structure. APC will get little votes in Imo and Ebonyi hut OBi will still win those states.

4. Southwest: The existing APC strcuture is going to help Tinibu alot here and also the fact that many people will play tribal cards. However, a lot if yorubas are also very informed hence Obi will get a lot if votes here. Atiku will lose woefully in Southwest.
Lagos will be between Obi and Tinubu, Tinubu has a grassroot structure that will work for him in Lagos but the people want Obi so it's going to be a battle between the people and the emperor. It's hard to call.

Tinubu will win in Osun, Ekiti and Ogun. Obi will also secure some votes here.

In Oyo, it's going to be a tight battle because of the existing PDP structure. Atiku will get votes, Obi will get votes, Tinubu will also get votes. I see Obi or Atiku winning oyo state.

Ondo state is hard to call, that state usually do not follow the Yoruba trend of voting. They have a mind of their own.

The election is still very hard to call. However, the next few months is going to give a clearer picture. Either way, Peter has the momentum and if anybody is going to get new voters converted, it's most likely going to be Peter Obi.

Good analysis.

Obedience is better than sacrifice and to harken than the fat of rams.

#Obedientlywemove

That's why kwankwaso said u guys don't pim about politics.

9jii:
That's why kwankwaso said u guys don't pim about politics.

You that know pim about politics predict your own and allow others to predict theirs

This is the best analysis I have seen so far that devoid sentiments. Mark your words, it will be close as you predicted. Lagos is between apc and LP because of chirstain and igbo dominance.
I don't trust kwakanso, his yesterday interviews have opened many things about his game plan. He may later collapse his votes for tinubu, not apc per se. And it will be close to election.
"If I don't get it, I wish he (tinubu) gets it." That statement alone carry lots of weight. He is a good friend of tinubu. A good one at that.
Thank God Obi did not fall for his tricks. He would have scattered everything at the last minutes. Politics is game of personal interest.
The battle is now on. The election is between tinubu and Obi, atiku no get level to me. Apc won't mind if they empty treasury for them to retain power. Many electorates will do anything for money no matter how the movement. Just wait for that time.

Many Many people will work against atiku especially states with higher numbers of chirstain and supporters of pdp.

I called one of my sisters recently who resides in kwara. She is an adamant supporter of atiku. I was asking her if she will vote, she said why not. I said your oga, the next thing she said was, when am not mad, when I see Obi on ground, why will I vote for him? Things are changing so fast.

Time will tell.

Dereformer:
Good analysis.

Obedience is better than sacrifice and to harken than the fat of rams.

#Obedientlywemove

You move not we move.
Obidient ko disobedient ni

Segzy22:
You move not we move.
Obidient ko disobedient ni

My family moves bro. Don't allow envy kill you.

The man that gave the order for the lights to be switched off at the Lekki Toll Gate has picked the man who ignored directives that exams to shouldn't be held outside Maiduguri as a result leading to the kidnap of the chibok girls to be his running mate.

APC is a curse.

Dereformer:
My family moves bro. Don't allow envy kill you.

Envy the person that will not even get vote in the NORTH AND SOUTH WEST? ABI YOU DEY WIND MI NI?

What a low-key analysis. Leave politics section n go to romance, that's my candid advice.

Your not a northerner and you don't know anything about northern politics!! Politics is not 1+1, just like how u were saying Atiku will divide Buhari's vote in 2019 because his a fellow northerner, you will emphatically lose again!! Stop acting like you know how we play politics!!

Even Baba Datti Ahmed just came out to say Muslim will line up for Tinubu/APC

You are very very very delusional and myopic!! Kwankwasso that y'all were insulting, saying he can only get votes in Kano, is the one ur suddenly allocating 4 states!! Haba Emeka

Kwarra a Yoruba state will leave Tinubu for Atiku ba!! you even gave Oyo state PO!! Omo this ur analysis don weak my body!! Na just to dash PO presidency, no need of elections

You let ur emotions get better of you

We northerners don't try to analyse and claim to know SE politics, but you are in Upper Iweaka and be claimg the most!!

I can't say for other regions, but as a northerner.. Your permutation is DOA!

FatherOfJesus:
The season is appraoching and we are anticipating who becomes the next president. Here is my early prediction for the election considering party popularity, people's choice and influence. .

1. I am starting with the core north, I e. Northwest and northeast. These regions, from history usually give block votes to their kinsmen irrepective of party excluding Adamawa state. While some federal might may play some significant role for APC here but I see Kwankwaso and Atiku securing a lot of votes because of their nature of voting.
I see Kwankwaso winning Kano and maybe either Zamfara, Kebbi and Jigawa.
I see Atiku winning Adamawa, Sokoto, Bauchi, he will get massive figures in the remaining states. Tinubu might win Katsina and Kaduna if and if El-Rufai and Buhari are with him genuinely. However, the core northern votes is going to be shared, whoever wins will win with a slim figure. Obi can only pick little votes here and there in these regions.

2. North Central: this region is very diversified and they are accepting the Obi movement faster than the.core north. I see PDP dragging kwara with APC because of Saraki's influence, Kogi will be between APC and Obi movement but I see APC winning if Yahaya Bello is truly with Tinubu.
Peter Obi will win Abuja, it's not negotiable.
Plateau state is going to be a battle between PDP and Peter Obi.
Benue is going to be a battle between PDP and Peter Obi.
Niger state vote like core northerners
Nassarawa state will be the tight.

3. South East and South South: The regions is going to be between Obi and PDP structure but I see Obi winning Atiku in a free and fair election. Atiku will get votes because of the existing PDP structure. APC will get little votes in Imo and Ebonyi hut OBi will still win those states.

4. Southwest: The existing APC strcuture is going to help Tinibu alot here and also the fact that many people will play tribal cards. However, a lot if yorubas are also very informed hence Obi will get a lot if votes here. Atiku will lose woefully in Southwest.
Lagos will be between Obi and Tinubu, Tinubu has a grassroot structure that will work for him in Lagos but the people want Obi so it's going to be a battle between the people and the emperor. It's hard to call.

Tinubu will win in Osun, Ekiti and Ogun. Obi will also secure some votes here.

In Oyo, it's going to be a tight battle because of the existing PDP structure. Atiku will get votes, Obi will get votes, Tinubu will also get votes. I see Obi or Atiku winning oyo state.

Ondo state is hard to call, that state usually do not follow the Yoruba trend of voting. They have a mind of their own.

The election is still very hard to call. However, the next few months is going to give a clearer picture. Either way, Peter has the momentum and if anybody is going to get new voters converted, it's most likely going to be Peter Obi.

The man come give Oyo and kwarra to PO! guy da tin weak me no b small!

He cum say Kwankwasso go win 4 States.. Kwankwasso that is tactically aligning with Tinubu already after seeing the handwriting

Peacecore:
What a low-key analysis. Leave politics section n go to romance, that's my candid advice.

FatherOfJesus:
The season is appraoching and we are anticipating who becomes the next president. Here is my early prediction for the election considering party popularity, people's choice and influence. .

1. I am starting with the core north, I e. Northwest and northeast. These regions, from history usually give block votes to their kinsmen irrepective of party excluding Adamawa state. While some federal might may play some significant role for APC here but I see Kwankwaso and Atiku securing a lot of votes because of their nature of voting.
I see Kwankwaso winning Kano and maybe either Zamfara, Kebbi and Jigawa.
I see Atiku winning Adamawa, Sokoto, Bauchi, he will get massive figures in the remaining states. Tinubu might win Katsina and Kaduna if and if El-Rufai and Buhari are with him genuinely. However, the core northern votes is going to be shared, whoever wins will win with a slim figure. Obi can only pick little votes here and there in these regions.

2. North Central: this region is very diversified and they are accepting the Obi movement faster than the.core north. I see PDP dragging kwara with APC because of Saraki's influence, Kogi will be between APC and Obi movement but I see APC winning if Yahaya Bello is truly with Tinubu.
Peter Obi will win Abuja, it's not negotiable.
Plateau state is going to be a battle between PDP and Peter Obi.
Benue is going to be a battle between PDP and Peter Obi.
Niger state vote like core northerners
Nassarawa state will be the tight.

3. South East and South South: The regions is going to be between Obi and PDP structure but I see Obi winning Atiku in a free and fair election. Atiku will get votes because of the existing PDP structure. APC will get little votes in Imo and Ebonyi hut OBi will still win those states.

4. Southwest: The existing APC strcuture is going to help Tinibu alot here and also the fact that many people will play tribal cards. However, a lot if yorubas are also very informed hence Obi will get a lot if votes here. Atiku will lose woefully in Southwest.
Lagos will be between Obi and Tinubu, Tinubu has a grassroot structure that will work for him in Lagos but the people want Obi so it's going to be a battle between the people and the emperor. It's hard to call.

Tinubu will win in Osun, Ekiti and Ogun. Obi will also secure some votes here.

In Oyo, it's going to be a tight battle because of the existing PDP structure. Atiku will get votes, Obi will get votes, Tinubu will also get votes. I see Obi or Atiku winning oyo state.

Ondo state is hard to call, that state usually do not follow the Yoruba trend of voting. They have a mind of their own.

The election is still very hard to call. However, the next few months is going to give a clearer picture. Either way, Peter has the momentum and if anybody is going to get new voters converted, it's most likely going to be Peter Obi.

Your analysis are quite very close to the reality but Oyo? Tinubu is sure winning Oyo.

ItsTutsi:


The man come give Oyo and kwarra to PO! guy da tin weak me no b small!

He cum say Kwankwasso go win 4 States.. Kwankwasso that is tactically aligning with Tinubu already after seeing the handwriting

As in ehh! This analysis dey vex me. Some people go just wake up from sleep n start to type nonsense. He even said that Lagos is close to call