₦airaland Forum

I laugh when people are giving APC and Tinubu hope in 2023 elections. The truth is that the 2023 election is fast turning to a two-horse race between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. In less than 60 days, Peter Obi and LP have become so massive that APC is only concerned about demarketing Obi instead of looking the way of Atiku. I guess you will be angry at this statement but wait and sincerely check out the analysis below.

By the U.S. government estimates, Nigeria's total population stands at 203.5 million (July 2018 estimate). A 2012 survey by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion and Public Life estimated the population to be 49.3 percent Christian and 48.8 percent Muslim, while the remaining 2 percent belong to other or no religions. https://www.state.gov/reports/2018-report-on-international-religious-freedom/nigeria/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20government%20estimates%20the,to%20other%20or%20no%20religions.

If we take the Pew Research analysis and discount it by say 6%, that gives the two main religions, Christianity and Islam a par position of 45% each. Meaning each of the two main religions has about 91 million each

Now assume that 40% of the population is of voting age. That means we have about 81 million eligible voters. Lets us say with the estimated voter turnout of 55%, the results above mean that we have about 45 million votes available for grab. That effectively means that Christians and Muslims would have about 23 million apiece.

As we already know now about 85% - 90% of Christians are against the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Asiwaju Tinubu and APC. Meaning APC is already losing about 20 million Christian votes before the elections proper. This is a very ugly and hard fact. If you doubt it, take a walk into any church or Christian gathering and you will know the truth. In the SW, it might be slightly different because of the tribal sentiments, but in Lagos, where 50% of SW votes come from, more than 90% of Christians will not vote APC, no matter the inducement.

Of the estimated 23 million Muslim votes, 80% are in the North, and Atiku and Kwankwaso are sure to take up about 70% - 80% of those votes, if not 85%, no thanks to the gale of defections being witnessed there now. Again, that denies APC of another 16 million votes. Leaving about 7 million for the APC and LP to share in the North.

So, when I see analysis like Tinubu would win 80% of SW, 70% of NC, 70% of NE, 25% of SS and SE, I wonder where these deluded analysts are getting their data from because the reality is this:

> SS and SE will largely be won by Peter Obi and Atiku. Buhari got 5% in 2015 and 2019, but Tinubu cannot get 2% with Obi on the ballot

> SW will be a big shocker to Asiwaju. He will do well in Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo, and Ogun, but in Lagos, it will be a big shocker. Why? The majority of Lagosians are Christians, you can argue all you want, and these are the most vociferous against the Muslim-Muslim ticket.

> NC is 75% Christians and they are the most restive about the idea of Muslim-Muslim tickets. Here, they will teach APC a bitter lesson, that is by expressing, WE ARE NOT INFERIOR. Lalong would be disgraced in Plateau> I know the Birons, they are heartless in matters like this!

> NW is largely indifferent about who is contesting for president or vice, but Datti Yusuf is from Kaduna. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed was born to the Baba-Ahmed family in Zaria in 1969. He is therefore of a refine Islamic stock. I will stock, unlike Tinubu. The North knows their own! So, the votes are for Atiku, Kwankwaso and Datti. Tinubu would lick his wounds here!

> NE is Atiku's own, no disputing that. Shettima and Zulum will only be given governorship, but the presidency is a no no!

So, as I mentioned, Tinubu would come a distant third position in 2023, except something tragic happens. But God will not allow evil doers to achieve their aim

Amen!
Obi is making it and will make it to the end!

Me I don't live in Nigeria.

But over here in Europe.

Several yoruba and hausa want Atiku or Peter obi to be the next president of nigeria


Including Gambia people.

They are rooting for obi ahead of Atiku

Up Iweka analyst

Moferere:
Up Iweka analyst

No, na Ogiso street analysis. Or may be you want Oluwole own!

No go commit suicide. Seyi Tinubu is driving Bugatti, you no get keke sef! Poor man!

Abeg, go baff, you dey smell!

Tinubu should begin to recharge his phone line because he will need to make that call to congratulate the winner before 4pm on election day

NaijaCowFarm:
No, na Ogiso street analysis. Or may be you want Oluwole own!

No go commit suicide. Seyi Tinubu is driving Bugatti, you no get keke sef! Poor man!

Abeg, go baff, you dey smell!

This is a comfirm uppercut to Tinubu urchins

Moferere:
Up Iweka analyst

This hair cream doesn't just grow hair it grows sense. For as many that have lost their senses due to harsh economic conditions.

Tilumbu is an old senile fool than doesn't know that he has expired on earth

2023 will turn into regional voting

See long wailing thread

NaijaCowFarm:
I laugh when people are giving APC and Tinubu hope in 2023 elections. The truth is that the 2023 election is fast turning to a two-horse race between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. In less than 60 days, Peter Obi and LP have become so massive that APC is only concerned about demarketing Obi instead of looking the way of Atiku. I guess you will be angry at this statement but wait and sincerely check out the analysis below.

By the U.S. government estimates, Nigeria's total population stands at 203.5 million (July 2018 estimate). A 2012 survey by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion and Public Life estimated the population to be 49.3 percent Christian and 48.8 percent Muslim, while the remaining 2 percent belong to other or no religions. https://www.state.gov/reports/2018-report-on-international-religious-freedom/nigeria/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20government%20estimates%20the,to%20other%20or%20no%20religions.

If we take the Pew Research analysis and discount it by say 6%, that gives the two main religions, Christianity and Islam a par position of 45% each. Meaning each of the two main religions has about 91 million each

Now assume that 40% of the population is of voting age. That means we have about 81 million eligible voters. Lets us say with the estimated voter turnout of 55%, the results above mean that we have about 45 million votes available for grab. That effectively means that Christians and Muslims would have about 23 million apiece.

As we already know now about 85% - 90% of Christians are against the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Asiwaju Tinubu and APC. Meaning APC is already losing about 20 million Christian votes before the elections proper. This is a very ugly and hard fact. If you doubt it, take a walk into any church or Christian gathering and you will know the truth. In the SW, it might be slightly different because of the tribal sentiments, but in Lagos, where 50% of SW votes come from, more than 90% of Christians will not vote APC, no matter the inducement.

Of the estimated 23 million Muslim votes, 80% are in the North, and Atiku and Kwankwaso are sure to take up about 70% - 80% of those votes, if not 85%, no thanks to the gale of defections being witnessed there now. Again, that denies APC of another 16 million votes. Leaving about 7 million for the APC and LP to share in the North.

So, when I see analysis like Tinubu would win 80% of SW, 70% of NC, 70% of NE, 25% of SS and SE, I wonder where these deluded analysts are getting their data from because the reality is this:

> SS and SE will largely be won by Peter Obi and Atiku. Buhari got 5% in 2015 and 2019, but Tinubu cannot get 2% with Obi on the ballot

> SW will be a big shocker to Asiwaju. He will do well in Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo, and Ogun, but in Lagos, it will be a big shocker. Why? The majority of Lagosians are Christians, you can argue all you want, and these are the most vociferous against the Muslim-Muslim ticket.

> NC is 75% Christians and they are the most restive about the idea of Muslim-Muslim tickets. Here, they will teach APC a bitter lesson, that is by expressing, WE ARE NOT INFERIOR. Lalong would be disgraced in Plateau> I know the Birons, they are heartless in matters like this!

> NW is largely indifferent about who is contesting for president or vice, but Datti Yusuf is from Kaduna. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed was born to the Baba-Ahmed family in Zaria in 1969. He is therefore of a refine Islamic stock. I will stock, unlike Tinubu. The North knows their own! So, the votes are for Atiku, Kwankwaso and Datti. Tinubu would lick his wounds here!

> NE is Atiku's own, no disputing that. Shettima and Zulum will only be given governorship, but the presidency is a no no!

So, as I mentioned, Tinubu would come a distant third position in 2023, except something tragic happens. But God will not allow evil doers to achieve their aim

Please what do you take, I wan buy you drink. Very indepth and knowledgeable analysis.

Northern votes are split: into 4 (Atiku, Kwankwaso, Tinubu and Obi likely in that order).

South Western votes are Tinubu but Obi will get something big from Lagos which is the grand price.

SE, SS votes are all Obi.

To win, a candidate must get bloc votes. Only Obi has that now in the SE, SS.

Every other region is split.