₦airaland Forum

Aiel123:
I noticed it too
Tambuwal has a slight edge over Sen.Danbaba
But winning governorship election for his candidate na war oo
Maybe Kebbi APC has woken Atiku Bagudu won't relent na he faces the biggest fight of his political career against Aliero so it's fight to finish
I got an eye on Sokoto, Kebbi, Adamawa, Bauchi,Oyo, Ogun, Plateau, Kaduna and Cross River (guber election oo)
I call them battleground states
Infact I'm compiling my findings on the states to create a thread here on NL

I dont know the strength of sen danbaba but an incumbent gov that gets reelected with 300 votes has no value, he is an oyetola.Ahmed aliyu is home and dry.Dan iya or bafarawa son could have been better.crs is my state,leave it.
Ogun is not a battleground state oh whether presidential or guber.atiku and obi have no chance.gov dapo has failed but pdp is almost dead. Gni and yayi are in apc and their strength is too much for pdp.akinlade is an idiot.Oyo is not s battleground in presidential.for guber,it could have been straight win for makinde but the entrance of adelabu makes it interesting.three of them are from ibadsn and may divide the votes while whoever wins oke Ogun and ogbomoso wins and apc is strong in oke Ogun.with the death of akala,don't know who holds ogbomoso.the alliance votes that brought in makinde is gone.ladoja is now with adelabu...folarin has thugs like makinde.ibarapa will go with pdp courtesy of the speaker ogundoyin...it will be like 2015 where ajimobi,folarin,ladoja,makinde divided Ibadan,akala took ogbomoso while sjimobi won ibarapa,Oyo and okeogun...
Plateau is very difficult.it is a three horse race.dakum,muftwang and yilwatda are from central and will divide votes.plateau north ordinarily is pdp but with senator gyang going to labour,things will be tight.plateau south is apc apart from langtang.yilwatda the apc candidate resigned from inec as a commissioner, this is a big advantage plus lalong is his relative.dariye could also play a role for labour or apc.it is tight.
We have already over flogged bauchi.it is a battleground at all levels.kebbi is a battleground for presidential but a straight win for the popular Dr nasur idris..it is very tight in Adamawa,I'll just give binani a slight advantage.
In Kaduna,it is a battleground for presidential but I believe uba sani will overwhelm ashiru

Aiel123:
It won't reach 2 million
Let's say
Borno:900k
Yobe 450k
As for Bauchi na PDP straight win(55%or thereabout)
Gombe is slightly APC
I believe Gombe will cancel Bauchi votes margin between the two candidates

AIEL123 YOU SEEM TO UNDERSTAND THINGS ON THE GROUND. BASED ON YOUR ROUGH ANALYSIS WHO IS WINNING THE NW & NE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS?

garfield1:
True.jagaban to take north and sw,obi ss/se..atiku nothing or a narrow win in ss.jagabsn has so many advantages,look at how his lieutenants are always on the front foot.atiku people are so lazy,he hasn't even formed his campaign team

That's true. It's only a political naive person that will think that Jagaban has less or second to highest advantage. His ability to negotiate his way inside is very apt. His strong support in the North is amazing. Let's not talk about his political warchest. Moreso, his best decision is choosing Shettima as his running mate despite the threat from CAN, though I'm a xtian from South.
My father was an APC vice chairman, and I'm an APC apologist buh I'm on a crossroad between supporting Obi or Jagaban. I like Jagaban genuinely buh I'm seeing Obi as someone that can take charge of his govt(unlike Buhari) bcoz he's young.

majole:
AIEL123 YOU SEEM TO UNDERSTAND THINGS ON THE GROUND. BASED ON YOUR ROUGH ANALYSIS WHO IS WINNING THE NW & NE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS?

This is my analysis based on recent and past trends in our political terrain
NE
Adamawa PDP:56% APC 40%
Bauchi PDP:55% APC:30%
Taraba PDP:56% APC:35%
Gombe PDP:45% APC:50%
Borno PDP:20% APC:80%
Yobe PDP:18% APC 80%
NW
For NW, It's PDP:35% APC:57%
Note, I considered the Buhari factor and APC strong presence in NW as Ganduje,Masari,El Rufai are with Tinubu

Aiel123:
It was a northerner against a northerner
That is not the case now
I still maintain Atiku will win Bauchi
Feb will prove me either wrong or right
And concerning bvas, when over voting occurs,the whole results will be voided.
I haven't participated in an election bvas was used but judging from Ekiti and Osun template there seems to be an improvement from it's early testing (by election)
Either of this will play out during the polls
The north unites behind one of their own Atiku
Or support rotational presidency (south; Tinubu)
I have this feeling that Atiku will win but I don't know how

Northerners don't just unite around anyone from North, and Atiku is not that person. I have spoken with an Aboki from Sokoto. He told me that Atiku is not a real Fulani(Fundamentalist Muslim implied), that he doesn't have Cows. I still maintain that Tinubu made the beat Choice in choosing Shettima. This Sheti of a man will mark Atiku strongly in the North, precisely Muslim population.

Aiel123:
I noticed it too
Tambuwal has a slight edge over Sen.Danbaba
But winning governorship election for his candidate na war oo
Maybe Kebbi APC has woken Atiku Bagudu won't relent na he faces the biggest fight of his political career against Aliero so it's fight to finish
I got an eye on Sokoto, Kebbi, Adamawa, Bauchi,Oyo, Ogun, Plateau, Kaduna and Cross River (guber election oo)
I call them battleground states
Infact I'm compiling my findings on the states to create a thread here on NL

And also Delta.

Peacecore:
Northerners don't just unite around anyone from North, and Atiku is not that person. I have spoken with an Aboki from Sokoto. He told me that Atiku is not a real Fulani(Fundamentalist Muslim implied), that he doesn't have Cows. I still maintain that Tinubu made the beat Choice in choosing Shettima. This Sheti of a man will mark Atiku strongly in the North, precisely Muslim population.

You're right about Shettima
That's why the outcry is high against him;they know his capabilities
About that aboki from sokoto does he expects Atiku to have cow

Peacecore:
And also Delta.

I never considered Delta before but DSP is pulling weight oo
I think I underrated him

Aiel123:
You're right about Shettima
That's why the outcry is high against him;they know his capabilities
About that aboki from sokoto does he expects Atiku to have cow

You know that what they value is very pretty compare to our values here in the South. They see it that a devoted Muslim or Fulani should have Cows, hence But hari even as a president of a rich country like Nigeria is still interested in his Cow business. They're just like that.

Aiel123:
I got an eye on Sokoto, Kebbi, Adamawa, Bauchi,Oyo, Ogun, Plateau, Kaduna and Cross River (guber election oo)
I call them battleground states

Tinubu will not want Oyo to be a battle ground. He will do a deal with Makinde. I won't be surprised if Makinde's has also cut a deal with Tinubu in London, alongside Wike.

Makinde that refused to meet Atiku when he visited Ibadan during the primaries is unlikely to be an enthusiastic campaigner for Atiku. Tinubu will sacrifice the APC governorship in Oyo in return for Makinde's direct or indirect support for him.

Tinubu is a deal maker. He won't miss the opportunity to wreck Atiku's chances in Oyo.

Aiel123:
I never considered Delta before but DSP is pulling weight oo
I think I underrated him

Exactly my reason and Iboris(ie To Ibori n his foot soldiers disagreement with Sheriff candidacy.

Peacecore:
Exactly my reason and Iboris(ie To Ibori n his foot soldiers disagreement with Sheriff candidacy.

I pray PDP settle ;a house divided against itself cannot stand
Ogboru should have picked LP ticket instead of APGA (the Peter Obi publicity will catapult him higher,not that obscure APGA)
U are a deltan?

DeLaRue:
Tinubu will not want Oyo to be a battle ground. He will do a deal with Makinde. I won't be surprised if Makinde's has also cut a deal with Tinubu in London, alongside Wike.

Makinde that refused to meet Atiku when he visited Ibadan during the primaries is unlikely to be an enthusiastic campaigner for Atiku. Tinubu will sacrifice the APC governorship in Oyo in return for Makinde's direct or indirect support for him.

Tinubu is a deal maker. He won't miss the opportunity Zto wreck Atiku's chances in Oyo.

I mean Oyo guber not presidential election
It's a three horse race. Adelabu,Folarin and Makinde of Accord, APC and PDP respectively
Tinubu will win Oyo in the presidential election

Peacecore:
You know that what they value is very pretty compare to our values here in the South. They see it that a devoted Muslim or Fulani should have Cows, hence But hari even as a president of a rich country like Nigeria is still interested in his Cow business. They're just like that.

I guess that's why Atiku is seen as a liberal Muslim and not a radical one to both the south and north

Aiel123:
I pray PDP settle ;a house divided against itself cannot stand
Ogboru should have picked LP ticket instead of APGA (the Peter Obi publicity will catapult him higher,not that obscure APGA)
U are a deltan?

Non of the two groups can accept to shield their sword. I'm not a Delta though!

Peacecore:
Non of the two groups can accept to shield their sword. I'm not a Delta though!

If they fail to , DSP will be inching closer to Dennis osadebe house.
A sacrifice isn't to costly na

Aiel123:
I guess that's why Atiku is seen as a liberal Muslim and not a radical one to both the south and north

The reason he wins xtian population and lose Muslim population against fundamental Muslim like Buhari. Same will likely happen with Shettima on the ticket while Obi will deal with him across xtian population and down south.

Peacecore:
The reason he wins xtian population and lose Muslim population against fundamental Muslim like Buhari. Same will likely happen with Shettima on the ticket while Obi will deal with him across xtian population and down south.

Garfield said it.
Don't you think there's something Atiku is banking on to win?
I mean he isn't sure of any region overwhelmingly
Or is the handwriting on the wall not clear enough?
No wonder Masari called him a veteran loser
I think it's time AA call his political ambition of leading Nigeria quit

Aiel123:
Garfield said it.
Don't you think there's something Atiku is banking on to win?
I mean he isn't sure of any region overwhelmingly
Or is the handwriting on the wall not clear enough?
No wonder Masari called him a veteran loser
I think it's time AA call his political ambition of leading Nigeria quit

I think he's still banking on Northern:s ' our son ' mentality buh I so much believe that Northerners won't jeopardize Nigerian unity for a someone like Atiku. When Northerner says insha Allah, he wants to stand for truth and fairness. This election is for Obi or Jagaban to win but Jagaban has higher chance anyway. Jagaban's negotiation ability is another thing that makes him stand out taller. At the end he may succeed in wooing Wike, Ortom, Makinde n co. Fayoses are already there for him. Kwankwaso has made it clear that if he can't have it, he will colapse his structure to Jagaban's. Once that is done, Kano will be totally in the bag. Bornu gives close to a million votes and it's already in the bag. Katsina is the president's home, so no problem. Atiku should expect no vote from Lagos, it's between Jagaban and Obi. Kaduna is the only big state left for grab. Rivers that gives PDP the highest votes is now disarray. Same with Delta where Iboris are in battle with the VP candidate of the party, and Atiku winning will translates to Okowa becoming the leader of the party in the state and beyond. Goodluck is no longer committed to PDP affairs. Dino Melaye is a noisemaker and irrelevant in Kogi politics. Who are those his foot soldiers that are committed to his struggles like Sanwo_ Olu, Faleke, Fayemi, Ganduje, Ribadu,El_Rufai etc.

Peacecore:
I think he's still banking on Northern:s ' our son ' mentality buh I so much believe that Northerners won't jeopardize Nigerian unity for a someone like Atiku. When Northerner says insha Allah, he wants to stand for truth and fairness. This election is for Obi or Jagaban to win but Jagaban has higher chance anyway. Jagaban's negotiation ability is another thing that makes him stand out taller. At the end he may succeed in wooing Wike, Ortom, Makinde n co. Fayoses are already there for him. Kwankwaso has made it clear that if he can't have it, he will colapse his structure to Jagaban's. Once that is done, Kano will be totally in the bag. Bornu gives close to a million votes and it's already in the bag. Katsina is the president's home, so no problem. Atiku should expect no vote from Lagos, it's between Jagaban and Obi. Kaduna is the only big state left for grab. Rivers that gives PDP the highest votes is now disarray. Same with Delta where Iboris are in battle with the VP candidate of the party, and Atiku winning will translates to Okowa becoming the leader of the party in the state and beyond. Goodluck is no longer committed to PDP affairs. Dino Melaye is a noisemaker and irrelevant in Kogi politics. Who are those his foot soldiers that are committed to his struggles like Sanwo_ Olu, Faleke, Fayemi, Ganduje, Ribadu,El_Rufai etc.

Let's keep our fingers crossed
As of now I have no candidate make I dey watch as things unfold
As things stands now,it seems PDP only care about winning governorship and nass seats

Aiel123:
Let's keep our fingers crossed
As of now I have no candidate make I dey watch as things unfold
As things stands now,it seems PDP only care about winning governorship and nass seats

Exactly! When campaign starts proper, we will know where the p pendulum swings towards.