Based on precedence, Lagos State is considered an All Progressives Congress(APC) stronghold, as the party has consistently delivered gubernatorial elections and holds almost all legislative seats at the state and federal levels. Lagos is also the home state of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate. Since his two-term governorship reign from 1999, Tinubu's dominance of the state's political sphere has not been a secret, and he remains the most influential figure in the state's political affairs.  

As far as politics is considered in the nation’s ‘Centre of Excellence’, even ‘His Excellences’ successive governors of the state have had to consistently and continually pledge their fealty to Tinubu a.k.a. Jagaban, in order to remain in control of the party apparatchiks in government or to get reelected. Over every election cycle in Lagos, for the past 23 years, Jagaban has almost solely determined where the presidential votes sway. And now ‘it is his turn’. 

On the surface, it would appear that winning the state would be as easy as taking candy from a baby, but a closer examination reveals that he faces some peculiar obstacles.  

First, let's examine the margins of victory in previous elections. In the 2015 presidential election, APC’s Buhari received 792,460 votes compared to the incumbent Jonathan's 633,327 of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); a difference of 159,133 votes. Similarly, although President Buhari also won Lagos in the 2019 election, receiving 580,814 votes to defeat PDP’s Atiku by a margin of 132,798 votes, the difference was slimmer. This demonstrates that although the APC appears to control the scene, its power is not absolute.  

APC's victory in the 2019 elections was also allegedly aided by electoral malpractices such as vote rigging, ballot theft, vote buying, etc. further questioning the reliability of their seeming invincibility in the state. Thankfully, with the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), rigging is now more difficult and traceable, and the electoral umpire has assured a more transparent electoral process.  

The next factor to consider is the opposition. Currently, it appears that Atiku's influence in the Southwest geopolitical region is limited, particularly in comparison to other regions. As a result, it may be safe to conclude that whatever votes he may garner in the region would not be enough to significantly alter the election outcome.  

This narrative changes when Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate comes into the fore. Tinubu's influence is largely secure over a section of the electorate, including native Yorubas, market/labour unions, area boys, and political elites. Nonetheless, a growing number of enlightened Yoruba voters have reservations about voting for Tinubu and the APC. For younger voters - the Gen Z demography, the events that transpired during the #EndSARS protests are still fresh in their minds and they may come out to prove their point with the votes. Also, Christian voters appear to be opposed to the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC. These suggest that the APC could receive fewer votes in the Christian and Youth communities in the upcoming elections.  

FINAL VERDICT: Although an APC victory is anticipated in Lagos, the margin may be even slimmer than in 2019. With some uncertainty surrounding the 2023 elections outcome and the  emergence of Peter Obi distorting the two-party dominance of the APC and PDP, there is still some chance that the more-favoured APC may be in for a shocker.

#VoxPopuli
#PresidentialElectionPulse2023

I have never been more certain that APC will lose Lagos in 2023 than after reading this pure analytical work. With those lean margins in 2015, and 2019, now add the same-faith ticket, LP's new influence, EndSARS anger, BVAS, Tinubu's dimentia, let me see how the drug addict is going to win Lagos.

So, this your conclusion doesn't tally with the analysis:

Although an APC victory is anticipated in Lagos, the margin may be even slimmer than in 2019

Not expected at all.

You see, when a human begins to assume the position of God, God let's the human know that he is merely human. If even the influence of the Roman Empire has waned in the world, what is a Tinubu Dynasty that it cannot die.

Nlfpmod
Lalasticlala
Mynd44
Seun

More people are needed to contribute to this.

Ttalk:
You have said nothing

Because you don't have enough brain to understand him. That's how you ridicule Peter Obi's statistics to hide the fact that you can't cope with his frequency

It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for Obi to win the next election.

You have said nothing

Lagosians will vote LP for president and Apc for Governor no doubt....

I'M A LAGOSIAN BY ORIGIN AND MY VOTE IS FOR ASIWAJU , Deal with it!

ElSudani:
It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for Obi to win the next election.

That's how you called him a social media president. Now, how far? The problem here is that many you lack imaginative ability to be able to see the possibility of new things happening.

harqinhola:
I'M A LAGOSIAN BY ORIGIN AND MY VOTE IS FOR ASIWAJU , Deal with it!

Congrats for your choice. Mine is for Peter Obi, and I'm Yoruba.

LP is only going to take PDP votes that is all.
Lagos APC Wins has always been organic by hook or crook and the atmosphere for that has not changed so worst case scenario the LP will only successfully depletes PDP votes and that will only transform to more wins for APC.

Higher probability has it that it may even be same at the federal level and the real shock will be received by both the PDP and LP faithfuls.

I strongly perceive Tinubu has the next president even though I am not ok with that at all but from reality except something is drastically and swiftly done Tinubu will be declared winner and trust me I will celebrate to high heavens.

For every Obi votes Atiku looses and for every Atiku votes Obi looses, the only organic undisturbed vote is that of Tinubu. I may be very wrong, very very wrong but time will tell.

GOOD LUCK TO YOU TOO .

dumahi:

Congrats for your choice. Mine is for Peter Obi, and I'm Yoruba.

Felimax:
LP is only going to take PDP votes that is all.
Lagos APC Wins has always been organic by hook or crook and the atmosphere for that has not changed so worst case scenario the LP will only successfully depletes PDP votes and that will only transform to more wins for APC.

Higher probability has it that it may even be same at the federal level and the real shock will be received by both the PDP and LP faithfuls.

I strongly perceive Tinubu has the next president even though I am not ok with that at all but from reality except something is drastically and swiftly done Tinubu will be declared winner and trust me I will celebrate to high heavens.

For every Obi votes Atiku looses and for every Atiku votes Obi looses, the only organic undisturbed vote is that of Tinubu. I may be very wrong, very very wrong but time will tell.

To think obi hasn't taken votes away from APC is purely Lying to one's self

Majority of the osibanjo and Ameachi supporters in APC are rooting for Peter obi

Edo north which was naturally strong APC hold is not obidients ... traditional voters in Benue that were APC voters are changing same in Bauchi ,gombe , nassarawa

It's funny how u analyze how obi takes vote from PDP but ignore how kwankwaso and Atiku are taking votes from the north that were normally APC votes

Felimax:
LP is only going to take PDP votes that is all.
Lagos APC Wins has always been organic by hook or crook and the atmosphere for that has not changed so worst case scenario the LP will only successfully depletes PDP votes and that will only transform to more wins for APC.

Higher probability has it that it may even be same at the federal level and the real shock will be received by both the PDP and LP faithfuls.

I strongly perceive Tinubu has the next president even though I am not ok with that at all but from reality except something is drastically and swiftly done Tinubu will be declared winner and trust me I will celebrate to high heavens.

For every Obi votes Atiku looses and for every Atiku votes Obi looses, the only organic undisturbed vote is that of Tinubu. I may be very wrong, very very wrong but time will tell.

be bold to declare support for your candidate. How can you write the above, garnished with the excitement I perceived in your submission and still tell us you're not ok with YOUR Tinubu winning Lagos when you actually wish it come true? We all are not children. Some of us read between the lines.

dumahi:

That's how you called him a social media president. Now, how far? The problem here is that many you lack imaginative ability to be able to see the possibility of new things happening.

We are not only imaginative we are also very realistic. Obi and his party are broke. Not only that, they lack national coverage and political structure to support it.
Don't deceive yourself, Obi cannot win. It is impossicant.

ElSudani:
It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for Obi to win the next election.

While also it will be much easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for Tinubu to win the presidential election