garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

Another Akara analysis

DMerciful:
Apart from the indigenes, Igbos are always next in terms of numbers but you'd rather deny the obvious truth because it doesn't align with your political calculations. You'll learn by force

But I tell you it's a lie. You may find high concentration of Igbo in some parts of Nigeria but not in entire Nigeria after the indigene. There is need to deradicalized you people from all these nonsense assumptions.
Next you will say Igbo make 40% of Lagos, Igbo is richest, igbo develop Nigeria bla bla while all record and indices show otherwise

I

Why not focus on this topic under discuss? You wanna wipe up sentiments by bringing Lagos, riches and what not into the mix.

In all region(SS,SW,NE,NW,NC) Igbos are more after the people originally from these regions! So your voting strength by regions includes the Igbos in those regions

Ttalk:


But I tell you it's a lie. You may find high concentration of Igbo in some parts of Nigeria but not in entire Nigeria after the indigene. There is need to deradicalized you people from all these nonsense assumptions.
Next you will say Igbo make 40% of Lagos, Igbo is richest, igbo develop Nigeria bla bla while all record and indices show otherwise

I

garfield1:


Oga,I said tinubu will get 7.5 million nationally from what buhari got,an additional 2.5 million from fore buharists nationally and 1 million from new voters nationally and 1 mil additionally from sw.

I said atiku will get 5 mil nationally,2.5 mil nationally from buhari votes and1 mil from new voters nationally.read and stop talking nonsense

Then your calculations is a mess. How will he get 7.5 million nationally. You are manufacturing figures that don't exist.

misano:


Then your calculations is a mess. How will he get 7.5 million nationally. You are manufacturing figures that don't exist.

Why wouldn't he get it

Mumu people is till hoping on the old figures. BVAS will erase old register.

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

This is bullshit
You guys will seat down in the south and start typing rubbish
You mean OBi will get more votes than Atiku?
Are you serious rn or what

Tinubu is getting nothing less than 17 million votes
Atiku will get nothing less than 12 million votes
Obi will be below 8 million votes

garfield1:


Why wouldn't he get it

You started by cutting Buhari's vote into 2 equal halfs which is 7.5 million for Tinubu, then from the balance 7.5 million you allocated another 2.5 million to Tinubu. This means the balance of the North vite
which remaining 4.5 million will be shared between Kwankwaso and Atiku will share only 4.5 million.

The North must really LOVE Tinubu...

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

Your analysis is good but I disagree. Buhari has been getting 12 million votes since 2003 except in 2007 when he contested with yarardua n got 6 million votes. 90% or more of buhari's vote are from the north. There is no northerner politician alive that has buhari's cult followership, bear in mind that Jonathan, yarardua and OBJ won election with over 24 million votes and a total votes of between 38 to 40 milion. Buhari won with 15 million and a total votes of less than 30 million both in 2015 n 2019, therefore over 8 million people that has been voting never voted in 2015 n 2019.
Where Would Bola Ahmed TINUBU get the numbers, southwest (his stronghold) gave APC about 3 million in 2015 and 2019. He can't pull buhari's 12 million votes in the north because he is not considered as a Northerner, a devout Muslim, or incorruptible ( points that sold Buhari to Nigerians) His party has failed woefully, what would he campaign with?. South east n south south won't vote him, I am sure you know that already. New voters, new interest and new rave is definitely not for Tinubu, how would he win? This election is between obi n Atiku

Kyase:


This is bullshit
You guys will seat down in the south and start typing rubbish
You mean OBi will get more votes than Atiku?
Are you serious rn or what

Tinubu is getting nothing less than 17 million votes
Atiku will get nothing less than 12 million votes
Obi will be below 8 million votes

You are manufacturing numbers. Like you said, you seat in your house and you manufacture numbers.

Nakedtruths:

Your analysis is good but I disagree. Buhari has been getting 12 million votes since 2003 except in 2007 when he contested with yarardua n got 6 million votes. 90% or more of buhari's vote are from the north. There is no northerner politician alive that has buhari's cult followership, bear in mind that Jonathan, yarardua and OBJ won election with over 24 million votes and a total votes of between 38 to 40 milion. Buhari won with 15 million and a total votes of less than 30 million both in 2015 n 2019, therefore over 8 million people that has been voting never voted in 2015 n 2019.
Where Would Bola Ahmed TINUBU get the numbers, southwest (his stronghold) gave APC about 3 million in 2015 and 2019. He can't pull buhari's 12 million votes in the north because he is not considered as a Northerner, a devout Muslim, or incorruptible ( points that sold Buhari to Nigerians) His party has failed woefully, what would he campaign with?. South east n south south won't vote him, I am sure you know that already. New voters, new interest and new rave is definitely not for Tinubu, how would he win? This election is between obi n Atiku

The failure of his patty doesnt really matter to many.in se,ss he will match atiku.
As a Yoruba,he will get 4 mil from south west,3.5 mil from non buharists up north.when Buhari order his followers to vote him,at least 2.5 million will vote him plus 1 million from new PVC holders and a possible 1 mil from se/ss

misano:


You started by cutting Buhari's vote into 2 equal halfs which is 7.5 million for Tinubu, then from the balance 7.5 million you allocated another 2.5 million to Tinubu. This means the balance of the North vite
which remaining 4.5 million will be shared between Kwankwaso and Atiku will share only 4.5 million.

The North must really LOVE Tinubu...

Kwankwaso and atiku will share 5 mil.the north divide equally among the three.they like tinubu.buhari had 9 mil from north,tinubu can get 6 mil

garfield1:


Kwankwaso and atiku will share 5 mil.the north divide equally among the three.they like tinubu.buhari had 9 mil from north,tinubu can get 6 mil

Northerners see Buhari as their brother, they don't see him as an upright man who is a strong Muslim. Oga Tinubu doesn't have that grace. If Tinubu was from North I will give it to him.

Look, the Northerners are politically very smart, they are not as $tupid as you think. With Kwankwaso and Atiku on that ballot, bro it be difficult.

garfield1:



The failure of his patty doesnt really matter to many.in se,ss he will match atiku.
As a Yoruba,he will get 4 mil from south west,3.5 mil from non buharists up north.when Buhari order his followers to vote him,at least 2.5 million will vote him plus 1 million from new PVC holders and a possible 1 mil from se/ss

Understand something clearly. If Tinubu was from the North the North will vote for out of sentiment and ethnicity. Now that he is not from North they will vote based on character. If you like continue to deceive yourself. February go tell you.

garfield1:



The failure of his patty doesnt really matter to many.in se,ss he will match atiku.
As a Yoruba,he will get 4 mil from south west,3.5 mil from non buharists up north.when Buhari order his followers to vote him,at least 2.5 million will vote him plus 1 million from new PVC holders and a possible 1 mil from se/ss

His party's failure matters the most, that's why obi appeals to voters interest, and that's why Atiku could even vie for president. Buhari is not interested in Tinubu's candidacy, if you are observant, his body language is very clear on that. Therefore he can't order anyone to vote Tinubu and even Buhari himself won't get much votes like 2015n 2019. There is also a very high possibility of voter apathy in the north, because pmb has failed them. Let's even assume you are right slightly, 11 million for Tinubu, 9million for Atiku and 8 million for obi, that's a total of about 30million, that can never happen, there would be over 50million voters next year,and I see obi costing to victory followed closely by Atiku. The north is playing Tinubu and I sincerely feel for him.

Nakedtruths:

His party's failure matters the most, that's why obi appeals to voters interest, and that's why Atiku could even vie for president. Buhari is not interested in Tinubu's candidacy, if you are observant, his body language is very clear on that. Therefore he can't order anyone to vote Tinubu and even Buhari himself won't get much votes like 2015n 2019. There is also a very high possibility of voter apathy in the north, because pmb has failed them. Let's even assume you are right slightly, 11 million for Tinubu, 9million for Atiku and 8 million for obi, that's a total of about 30million, that can never happen, there would be over 50million voters next year,and I see obi costing to victory followed closely by Atiku. The north is playing Tinubu and I sincerely feel for him.

You are wrong.buhari is usually neutral in matters that doesnt involve him.he likes being aloof and unconcerned but his family with Aisha are supporting tinubu,his core followers are with tinubu,he was at tinubu campaign flag off and invited tinubu to inaugurate bauchi drilling of oil which means he is with tinubu...

Performance doesnt matter.buhari failed but was re elected.a lot of governors failed but were reelected.

Total turnout in nigeria has never exceeded 40 mil and bvas will reduce it further.it can never get to 50 mil.turnout will reduce in nw but will increase in ne because their dons are involved.turnout and voters reg is low in se/ss historically.

Obi will fail woefully in core north.he won't get 5009 votes in states like zamfara,borno,sokoto etc..

The north is not playing tinubu.the north dont like atiku,kwankwaso is not strong enough.the north are honest,if they are with you,they support you.if they dont want tinubu,they would tell him.they won't even allow him win the primaries.

Most obi voters are formerly atiku or pdp voters.new voters are 9 mill and highest that will vote are 5 mil.highestvthat will vote obi is 3 million.obi and atiku are sharing from same pool.tinubu voters are intact

misano:


Understand something clearly. If Tinubu was from the North the North will vote for out of sentiment and ethnicity. Now that he is not from North they will vote based on character. If you like continue to deceive yourself. February go tell you.

True but atiku doesnt have character.Muslim Muslim ticket of tinubu is attractive to them.north votes will be divided while tinubu clears sw and wins

misano:


Northerners see Buhari as their brother, they don't see him as an upright man who is a strong Muslim. Oga Tinubu doesn't have that grace. If Tinubu was from North I will give it to him.

Look, the Northerners are politically very smart, they are not as $tupid as you think. With Kwankwaso and Atiku on that ballot, bro it be difficult.

They voted buhari not because he I their brother but because they see him as simple minded,radical,fanatic Muslim,incorrupt,lover of the talakawas.atiku doesnt have those qualities so they dont like him.kwankwaso has those qualities but he is weak so they are confused.they will divide their votes along the three parties equally. Tinubu will win the north narrowly or lose narrowly.once he gets 35%,it is enough.he doesbt need to win the north but stayvclose to atiku.but he will defeat atiku in north central

garfield1:


They voted buhari not because he I their brother but because they see him as simple minded,radical,fanatic Muslim,incorrupt,lover of the talakawas.atiku doesnt have those qualities so they dont like him.kwankwaso has those qualities but he is weak so they are confused.they will divide their votes along the three parties equally. Tinubu will win the north narrowly or lose narrowly.once he gets 35%,it is enough.he doesbt need to win the north but stayvclose to atiku.but he will defeat atiku in north central

Good now you are talking. But the problem is this. If he doesn't win the North he will not win the general election.

misano:


Good now you are talking. But the problem is this. If he doesn't win the North he will not win the general election.

Like I said,he doesnt need to win the north.if he gets 3 mil in sw and atiku gets 1 mil and he gets 6 million in north while atiku gets 6.5 mil,he wins

Nakedtruths:

Your analysis is good but I disagree. Buhari has been getting 12 million votes since 2003 except in 2007 when he contested with yarardua n got 6 million votes. 90% or more of buhari's vote are from the north. There is no northerner politician alive that has buhari's cult followership, bear in mind that Jonathan, yarardua and OBJ won election with over 24 million votes and a total votes of between 38 to 40 milion. Buhari won with 15 million and a total votes of less than 30 million both in 2015 n 2019, therefore over 8 million people that has been voting never voted in 2015 n 2019.
Where Would Bola Ahmed TINUBU get the numbers, southwest (his stronghold) gave APC about 3 million in 2015 and 2019. He can't pull buhari's 12 million votes in the north because he is not considered as a Northerner, a devout Muslim, or incorruptible ( points that sold Buhari to Nigerians) His party has failed woefully, what would he campaign with?. South east n south south won't vote him, I am sure you know that already. New voters, new interest and new rave is definitely not for Tinubu, how would he win? This election is between obi n Atiku

Don't come and cry rigging in February o, cause I go laugh

garfield1:


Like I said,he doesnt need to win the north.if he gets 3 mil in sw and atiku gets 1 mil and he gets 6 million in north while atiku gets 6.5 mil,he wins

Keep deceiving urself, Tinubu share equal vote with Atiku and Kwankwaso gets zero vote.

misano:


Keep deceiving urself, Tinubu share equal vote with Atiku and Kwankwaso gets zero vote.

I didnt say so kid.I said three of them will share the votes.if total votes in nw/ne is 10 mil,atiku and tinubu will have 4 mil each.kwankwaso 2 mil...but in the north central,tinubu will beat both of them.if total votes in nc is 5 mil,tinubu and obi will take 4 mil and atiku and kwankwaso will take 1 mil

Obidient4life2:

Nobody is talking about business. We are talking about numbers! A billionaire has one vote.

Lots of Non Igbos resides in igboland

SIONKPO1:

Lots of Non Igbos resides in igboland

Agreed, what's the percentage?

Obidient4life2:

Agreed, what's the percentage?

I didn't make amy survey but know that most Uniform personnel's and federal Government Employees are not igbo's

SIONKPO1:

I didn't make amy survey but know that most Uniform personnel's and federal Government Employees are not igbo's

... What amount of Federal presence do you have in South East? There are lots of northerners here, how many of them registered their PVC here? Almost zero! So, as long as INEC data is concerned, it's 99% Igbos for South East.

Obidient4life2:

... What amount of Federal presence do you have in South East? There are lots of northerners here, how many of them registered their PVC here? Almost zero! So, as long as INEC data is concerned, it's 99% Igbos for South East.

The Ibibios,Yoruba's,Ijaws
I stayed in Orlu,non Gino's are much there

SIONKPO1:

The Ibibios,Yoruba's,Ijaws
I stayed in Orlu,non Gino's are much there

I am happy to hear that. My stance is how many of them registered their PVC in South East?

ImmaculateJOE:

Obi can't win Nasarawa, it's practically impossible.. For Kaduna, he should focus on Southern Kaduna.. I will advice they hold their rally in Kafanchan, forget Kaduna city..

States to win: 5SE, Crs, Rivers, Edo, Delta, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kaduna....

AKS, Taraba is also winnable..

My brother leave sentiment it will be impossible for Obi to win all south east because all of them are either PDP or APC strong hold. Vote go dey seriously shared for that region between LP, PDP and APC which go be very bad disadvantage for Obi. Even if Obi manage win anyhow, the difference no go dey so much compared to the way PDP and APC go stretch LP for other regions in Nigeria especially for North.
In as much as people really love Obi, the bitter truth be say e go hard for Peter Obi to win this election no matter what.