Some people always argue that Jonathan won the 2011 presidential election without winning the core north western states. But the fact is he performed very well in the north.
Please see the results yourselves and compare with the present 2023 scenario.

Jonathan actually did very well in the north west

This is exactly 2023 election with Peter Obi riding on Jonathan's backbone

kettykin:
This is exactly 2023 election with Peter Obi riding on Jonathan's backbone

Can Obi get the numbers Jonathan got in the north west based on the above results to make him win? Jonathan actually scored 25 percent in almost all the northern states in Nigeria.

There's no phrase like core North.
Specify the region because it's clear that Jonathan lost in all the NE and NW states.

I don't know if it's tribalism or lack of education, but the NE and NW haven't been known to vote for politicians from the South. Every politician from the South should focus on north central.

PS: Imo State voting strength dropped significantly. Imo had the second-biggest voting block in the SE and SS after Rivers.

As we go out there to vote in 2023, let me leave you with this quote, print it and make it a banner in your community.

"Don't put your destiny in the hands of a terminally sick man in the signature of tribal sentiments. Stop being a coward. Plant a seed that your generation will benefit from. Don't allow your generation to curse your memory for being a valueless and classless human being." Dr. Amaka Oforbuike.

SmartPolician:
There's no phrase like core North.

Specify the region because it's clear that Jonathan lost in all the NE and NW states.

Imo State voting strength dropped significantly.

Imo was the second-biggest voting block in the SE and SS after Rivers.

What do mean he lost in NE and NW? He did wonderfully well in those regions. He got 25 percent in almost all the northern states. Can Obi do this?

Analysis based on this result is wishy-washy.

2011 General Election where they will take ballot papers and thumb-print 10-1, 9-1, etc.

2023 is for BVAS & IReV, the thumb-printing or whatever will be very minimal compared to 2011.

Whomever wins the NW has one leg to Aso Rock. If you don't, you have plenty of work to do to cover grounds.

The election this time might not come down to whether you win or not but how you perform in your supposed stronghold or weak region(s).

fergie001:
Analysis based on this result is wishy-washy.

2011 General Election where they will take ballot papers and thumb-print 10-1, 9-1, etc.

2023 is for BVAS & IReV, the thumb-printing or whatever will be very minimal compared to 2011.

Whomever wins the NW has one leg to Aso Rock. If you don't, you have plenty of work to do to cover grounds.

The election this time might not come down to whether you win or not but how you perform in your supposed stronghold or weak region(s).

Aptly said.
North remain the battle ground.
2011 figures down south vapourized in subsequent elections...2011 election is not advisable to use as analysis for next year.

fergie001:
Analysis based on this result is wishy-washy.

2011 General Election where they will take ballot papers and thumb-print 10-1, 9-1, etc.

2023 is for BVAS & IReV, the thumb-printing or whatever will be very minimal compared to 2011.

Whomever wins the NW has one leg to Aso Rock. If you don't, you have plenty of work to do to cover grounds.

The election this time might not come down to whether you win or not but how you perform in your supposed stronghold or weak region(s).

Oga,bvas was first used in isoko rerun in 2021 and irev from 2020 bayelsa and IMO rerun.what significant change have you seen...

I agree with your last paragraph.obi will fail because he won't get snything in core north

tinsel:
Jonathan actually did very well in the north west

True.obj did same in 2003,1999 and abiola in 1993

garfield1:
Oga,bvas was first used in isoko rerun in 2021 and irev from 2020 bayelsa and IMO rerun.what significant change have you seen.

There has been some credibility like we saw in Osun recently. Recently, what about the Jos/Bassa re-run where PRP beat APC & PDP.

In States like Anambra & Ekiti, we saw a true reflection of numbers that will likely vote in these States next year unlike when we used to record sky-high figures.

Aiel123:
Aptly said. North remain the battle ground. 2011 figures down south vapourized in subsequent elections...2011 election is not advisable to use as analysis for next year.

The politicians are going for the numbers (NW, SW, NC, SS) .... Like I have always said, the APC is the Party to beat. They are the ruling Party and have the machinery/finance to prosecute the election irrespective of what they have given us these past 7 years.

In the NW, they have one State already before the election starts, that sends a message. The 25% in 24 States is where I think there will be some real politicking.

SmartPolician:
There's no phrase like core North.
Specify the region because it's clear that Jonathan lost in all the NE and NW states.

I don't know if it's tribalism or lack of education, but the NE and NW haven't been known to vote for politicians from the South. Every politician from the South should focus on north central.

PS: Imo State voting strength dropped significantly. Imo had the second-biggest voting block in the SE and SS after Rivers.

Gej got 35% of the north,got 25% in all the northern states except for borno,kano,katsina.obj did same and even won kaduna.abiola got 49% of the north.for obi to win,he must get close to gej result,at least 25% in 6 se/ss states

fergie001:
The politicians are going for the numbers (NW, SW, NC, SS) .... Like I have always said, the APC is the Party to beat. They are the ruling Party and have the machinery/finance to prosecute the election irrespective of what they have given us these past 7 years.

In the NW, they have one State already before the election starts, that sends a message. The 25% in 24 States is where I think there will be some real politicking.

You can win the total votes cast but needs that 25% in two thirds states to be declared winner ... that why no zones will be neglected.
19 states in the north and six states in the SW is looking good for the ruling party, that's 25 in particular.
One of the contestants won't reach the spread.( Kwankwaso and another)
But the two parties won't have problem with 25%( PDP & APC)

tinsel:
Jonathan actually did very well in the north west

At that time, PDP governors were in north west- Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto, Katsina and Kebbi.

Aiel123:

You can win the total votes cast but needs that 25% in two thirds states to be declared winner ... that why no zones will be neglected.
19 states in the north and six states in the SW is looking good for the ruling party, that's 25 in particular.
One of the contestants won't reach the spread.( Kwankwaso and another)
But the two parties won't have problem with 25%( PDP & APC)

Tinubu might not get 25% in Adamawa or taraba or both.in addition with anambra, Enugu or abia,aks or delta.
Atiku might not get it in borno and or yobe or kano or zamfara,benue or kwara,ekiti,lagos or Ogun,anambra,Enugu or Edo or crs...

Obi will not get the spread but may score atiku and maybe tinubu

famouscargo4u:



At that time, PDP governors were in north west- Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto, Katsina and Kebbi.

In 2015,pdp still ruled jigawa,katsina and kebbi

Peter obi will win, if you doute me , let's bet 200k,I don't talk much ....

tinsel:

Can Obi get the numbers Jonathan got in the north west based on the above results to make him win? Jonathan actually scored 25 percent in almost all the northern states in Nigeria.

I think obi has a very good chance in this election

Except buhari campaigns rigorously for the APC which he looks like not ready for, the northern votes might just be split this time around plus the southwest has never really gone one way, so don't know if thay would change with this election really

Nothing is certain but if everyone plays their cards right, there is a chance for any of the candidate

famouscargo4u:



At that time, PDP governors were in north west- Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto, Katsina and Kebbi.

kano gov is anpp.

kettykin:
This is exactly 2023 election with Peter Obi riding on Jonathan's backbone

you are comparing gej a sitting president and moreso we have many northerner on ballot.

Tinubu's urchinss are very slow in reasoning.

To them the north will easily vote Tinubu and not vote Obi.

What is their reason?

Let me help them.

1) it is the turn of the christian to rule Nigeria at the moment after Buhari.

Why would Christians prefer Tinubu who is on a Muslim-Muslim ticket to Obi?

Let's I forget.

The christians in the North is made up of more than 50% of the North.

What Obi need is 40% of that 50%

To burst your bubble. More Muslims will vote Obi self.

For Atiku, most Muslims wouldn't even vote him because

He is seen as both corrupt and a thief

In case you don't know, the north hate thieves with passion.

SmartPolician:
There's no phrase like core North.
Specify the region because it's clear that Jonathan lost in all the NE and NW states.

I don't know if it's tribalism or lack of education, but the NE and NW haven't been known to vote for politicians from the South. Every politician from the South should focus on north central.

PS: Imo State voting strength dropped significantly. Imo had the second-biggest voting block in the SE and SS after Rivers.

Exactly......that's why I know Tinubu can't win this elections. No southerner has gotten 51% from the core north since 2003. Those people voting pattern is very weird. Let's see if 2023 will be different. The reason why Jonathan won 2011 because he won the NC. Obi should concentrate on the North central If he wants to win this elections. And he should at least aim for 20% from the core north and beg kwankwanso to get 10% from the NW & NE.

Thanksful:
Tinubu's urchinss are very slow in reasoning.

To them the north will easily vote Tinubu and not vote Obi.

What is their reason?

Let me help them.

1) it is the turn of the christian to rule Nigeria at the moment after Buhari.

Why would Christians prefer Tinubu who is on a Muslim-Muslim ticket to Obi?

Let's I forget.

The christians in the North is made up of more than 50% of the North.

What Obi need is 40% of that 50%

To burst your bubble. More Muslims will vote Obi self.

For Atiku, most Muslims wouldn't even vote him because

He is seen as both corrupt and a thief

In case you don't know, the north hate thieves with passion.

The north will not vote Obi because he is an IPOB candidate. How many northerners have they killed in the East in the last 4 years?

Thanksful:
Tinubu's urchinss are very slow in reasoning.

To them the north will easily vote Tinubu and not vote Obi.

What is their reason?

Let me help them.

1) it is the turn of the christian to rule Nigeria at the moment after Buhari.

Why would Christians prefer Tinubu who is on a Muslim-Muslim ticket to Obi?

Let's I forget.

The christians in the North is made up of more than 50% of the North.

What Obi need is 40% of that 50%

To burst your bubble. More Muslims will vote Obi self.

For Atiku, most Muslims wouldn't even vote him because

He is seen as both corrupt and a thief

In case you don't know, the north hate thieves with passion.

On point. The problem with Tinubu's supporters is they don't understand Nigerian politics. They think because he built a particular state, then they will vote for Him. And I ask them this question. Did we vote obj, buhari, Gej and Yarudua because of their achievements? No we didn't. Hence we will not vote Tinubu based on the fact he allegedly built "Lagos".

Whether these urchins like it or not, the Muslim ticket will really cause problems for Tinubu. 2023 is cumin!

tinsel:

The north will not vote Obi because he is an IPOB candidate. How many northerners have they killed in the East in the last 4 years?

Can you prove Obi is a Ipob?

JoeNL22:

Can you prove Obi is a Ipob?

Let him condemn them.

tinsel:

Let him condemn them.

How?

JoeNL22:

How?

Let him condemn the activities of IPOB.

JoeNL22:

Exactly......that's why I know Tinubu can't win this elections. No southerner has gotten 51% from the core north since 2003. Those people voting pattern is very weird. Let's see if 2023 will be different. The reason why Jonathan won 2011 because he won the NC. Obi should concentrate on the North central If he wants to win this elections. And he should at least aim for 20% from the core north and beg kwankwanso to get 10% from the NW & NE.

You dont need to win core north to win.35% is ok.even if Jonathan lost north central,he would still have won because he got votes from north