₦airaland Forum

Aufbauh:
I asked you a simple question: when is the last time you supported or predicted a presidential candidate and he won?

I believed you supported and predicted GEJ in 2015, supported and predicted Atiku in 2019, and probably supported and predicted the reelection of Trump in far away America. What's the outcome?

You guys are political neophytes with very poor sense of judgement.

Even SE 95% votes is an equivalent of 5% votes in the Nigeria voters proven by the Buhari phenomenon 2915/2019.

I love your tears of consolation
Better start getting ready for Peter Obi's presidency next year.

We know how it always ends up for whoever Fani-Kayode supports

LegendHero:
Nigeria media will milk the news out of this G5 until they declare their true interest.

Na every minute we go dey hear breaking news of different versions.

Lolz.... i tire too

Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of turn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depend on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 52% -40% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibom , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi home ground and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Ethnicity and Money will play huge parts here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground is the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close( the siting governor will probably support Peter Obi, Akume is APC and APC has a popular gubernatorial candidate, Ayu is PDP) to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and PDP
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

Aufbauh:
I'm from the north and I'll be voting Tinubu so to answer question is that Tinubu will get his votes from patriotic Nigeria voters and not from Biafra.

If you're supporting Obi then know this for free that Obi is non existence in the core northern states.
You should also know that 95% of SEastern states vote is equivalent to 5% Nigeria voters proven by the Buhari phenomenon 2015/2019 election.

Yoruba Muslim. It's not today we know you.

seunmsg:
We are cool with whoever they finally endorse in as much as it is not Atiku.

As if Tinubu would win any other zone apart from Sw narrowly

The media is truly enjoying the moment. Provided they don't work for Atiku, it's fine. E get why.

jlinkd78:
In d interest of fairness, equity and justice d South East should be d consensus and in d interest of character, performance and leadership pedigree; Mr Peter Obi should be given d opportunity. A Peter Obi government will reboot our ability to save for rainy day, reduce d overbloated running cost of governance, plug gaps of finance leakages and establish the middle class which at d moment doesn't exist. The two classes of d "haves" and d "have not" currently being experienced is d reason d elites have continued to weaponise poverty knowing fully well we will come begging for crumbs. While I agree Obi is no saint but do we really need saints to be in charge. What we need is someone whose antecedents show we can trust him with our scarce resources, who is frugal in his personal spending lifestyle and who will be sincere in dealing with Nigerians knowing fully well that Grace through people's votes brought him in and therefore fully aware same vote can take him out not based on d corrupt political structures. The moment this is achieved, bet me d attraction to political offices will become less attractive and d economy will have a rejig

It should be given to the APGA candidate who is most deserving of it, why Peter Obi, who made him the consensus candidate of the igbos?

HIGHESTPOPORI:
As if Tinubu would win any other zone apart from Sw narrowly

The North is looking to the future @ Shettima not Tinubu.

APC will win the North.

sapele914:
The North is looking to the future @ Shettima not Tinubu.

APC will win the North.

The North won't leave Kwankwanso and Atiku contesting for president now and vote shetimma for vp because of future, they are not stupid

TechW:
The best thing for Atiku now is to endorse Peter obi to remain relevant, because if kwankwaso does that now before him, kwankwaso will automatically become the favourite some time in future.
In all fairness, Aso rock is calling Peter Obi, he is the child of grace if you check it critically without any bias,
It's psychological demeaning to have Fulani back to back, and also to have a Muslim Muslim ticket too, finally, having an Igbo man as a president 8s not a bad idea and a capable one indeed.
The only reason some people are against him is because he is a conservative man. They are all after their personal interest.

...

oliseh99:
God will surprise my enemies

Obi for president

Lolzzzzz

Who are your enemies

g5 clowns


It's only safe for them to declare their support obi so that their aspirations is secure

Lp has no other strong and viable candidate that can scuffle their various ambition

Is it tonye that will support wike, or teslim that will support seyi

seunmsg:
We are cool with whoever they finally endorse in as much as it is not Atiku.

You and them will cry when Atiku Abubakar becomes president

And Emilokan and his urchins longing they will get some bones to chew? They are just on a long thing.

mandarin:
Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of turn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depend on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 52% -40% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibom , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi home ground and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Ethnicity and Money will play huge parts here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground is the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close( the siting governor will probably support Peter Obi, Akume is APC and APC has a popular gubernatorial candidate, Ayu is PDP) to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and PDP
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

You try

No sane person will ignore the condition of nigeria and relegate it and vote for apc


apc has failed and destroyed nigeria

tinubu or apc will not rule nigeria in 2023

seunmsg:
We are cool with whoever they finally endorse in as much as it is not Atiku.

It's like you are a Christian Urchin. Muslim urchins prefer Turji Bello or Mohammed Shekau to Peter Obi.

PureMe01:
Peter Obi= SouthEast/SouthSouth/NorthCentral
Atiku/Kwankwaso= Northeast/Northwest
thiefnubuu= Southwest.

I'm sure with the above, thiefnubuu is the next president of Irabiji town union

Keep deceiving yourself

It will surprise you that Obi may do better than Tinubu in Southwest. Oyo and Osun are no longer in the hand of apc. Lagos will soon follow suit.

Whoever the G5 endorse in January, they are going to go all out and campaign with him in the remaining states..
Let's assume they endorse Peter Obi, the remaining OBIdient Family campaigns in the North go blend wellaly
Thinkam what say you

adekolaelect:
Just a way for Media's to cash out in the name of G5. If they do that they have turn themselves to regional wailers bcs only southern can not make one to become president in Nigeria . What and where are the Mechanism for them to Guarantee votes for them from the North ? Atiku will later mock them. It is not be Emotional feelings , Wishes or Bitterness It is about the numbers.

Naajjii:
Abeg go and sit down, which Peter Obi ? Keep deceiving yourself , let Obi come out and condem Ipob first before we take him serious.

How many times has tinubu condemned the Fulani kiing

TechW:
How many times has tinubu condemned the Fulani kiing

All this nyamiri people is it only Tinubu supporters on this platform or you think its only Tinubu and Obi that are contesting for the presidency. The person that will win the coming election is Atiku if you don't know you should know now. Ipob votes cannot make Obi president.

Aufbauh:
Further depletion of the main contender (Atiku) votes if the G-5 decide to go with Obi.

The stronger Obi becomes, the weaker Atiku chances and the easier Tinubu's victory.


I'd think you're actually the one giving yourself a furlong hope.

However the question i normally ask your likes who feel so confident in their choice is that, when is the last time you supported or predicted a presidential candidate and he won? I'm asking to know whether you'd have a very good sense of judgement or always misfiring as usual.

Good sense of judgemnent abi bribery and corruption. What's the political tactics displayed when you share $20k for delegates to clinch party ticket. Come here dey talk of good sense of judgement.

Stronger Obi becomes the better Tinubu's chances indeed. Yet for most part of the year agbado media has not rested in their attempt to bring Obi down. Normally nor be to support am to go up Naim una suppose do?

Na who una wan deceive with down-payment on electricity for roasted corn?

Naajjii:
All this nyamiri people is it only Tinubu supporters on this platform or you think its only Tinubu and Obi that are contesting for the presidency. The person that will win the coming election is Atiku if you don't know you should know now. Ipob votes cannot make Obi president.

Who be this one again?

AntiTerrorist:
It will surprise you that Obi may do better than Tinubu in Southwest. Oyo and Osun are no longer in the hand of apc. Lagos will soon follow suit.

Lol

If they ask you to put your money where your mouth dey you go chicken out like your fellow zombidients are known for

Very soon Nzogbu Nzogbu go even win Tinubu polling unit

Aufbauh:
I'm from the north and I'll be voting Tinubu so to answer question is that Tinubu will get his votes from patriotic Nigeria voters and not from Biafra.

If you're supporting Obi then know this for free that Obi is non existence in the core northern states.
You should also know that 95% of SEastern states vote is equivalent to 5% Nigeria voters proven by the Buhari phenomenon 2015/2019 election.

A few quick facts on your bloated northern votes.

1. They failed to make Buhari president until he formed an alliance - Mathematically impossible
2. Remember BVAS?. Well, a number of your underage voters and double voting will greatly dissipate
3. Northern votes will be greatly balkanized in this 4 way race - Even if PO trails the other candidates in northwest
4. 40 percent new voters came into the system in the south. Most are youths who will vote for Peter Obi - Cancelling out a chunk of KKK votes

This thing may not pan out as some of you wish it.

00FFT00:
A few quick facts on your bloated northern votes.

1. They failed to make Buhari president until he formed an alliance - Mathematically impossible
2. Remember BVAS?. Well, a number of your underage voters and double voting will greatly dissipate
3. Northern votes will be greatly balkanized in this 4 way race - Even if PO trails the other candidates in northwest
4. 40 percent new voters came into the system in the south. Most are youths who will vote for Peter Obi - Cancelling out a chunk of KKK votes

This thing may not pan out as some of you wish it.

Even in a glaring reality i know that some of you guys will still live in denial. I'm not surprise though cos most of you guys in that category hardly reach out of your comfort zone.

Have you once ask yourself why all the presidential candidate and political analysts give much attention or credence to the northern votes?
I'd think they should know better than an armchair speculator or 'fantasier'.

It's on record that the core northern votes account for 40% of the general voters.

Talking about how the northern votes has not help Buhari to win. It's also on record that the northern votes constitute 85% of the votes that gave him victory. Even though previous elections were marred by massive rigging which have worked greatly against him.

Why did you guys also jump on BVAS as if it will discredit legitimate voters? If you're actually observant you would have known that subsequent improved electoral reforms has help mainly in curtailing massive rigging in the southern part of the country especially SE & SS.
Since the introduction of card reader into our electoral system all the bogus 1m plus from those states has greatly be cut down.

It's laughable to read about how people that hardly know about the northerners rationale in doing things will be projecting how they'll vote. The core northern states hardly split their votes and its on record. There maybe slight change but Tinubu will win 80% of the states govern by the APC in the north. Know this and have peace.

Oga is not 40% new voters that came on board. We were on 84.2million voters prior to 2019 but now 93.3million in 2022 so extra 11million votes.
40% of the new voters are students that's what you are definitely trying to alludes. 40% of 11million is just 4million plus so calm down.

Even then, you shouldn't believe in your fantasy that all the 40% of the student votes will go to Obi. It's impossicant!

Again don't be unmindful of the fact that the average voters turnout will never be 100%.

Even when we have 84.2m registered voters, the combined voters for presidential election has never exceeded 32m even when politicians were rigging massively.

Aufbauh:
I'm from the north and I'll be voting Tinubu so to answer question is that Tinubu will get his votes from patriotic Nigeria voters and not from Biafra.

If you're supporting Obi then know this for free that Obi is non existence in the core northern states.
You should also know that 95% of SEastern states vote is equivalent to 5% Nigeria voters proven by the Buhari phenomenon 2015/2019 election.

You are intellectually handicapped. South east is 32% of the votes in the 13 core northern states.

Furthermore the core north has 36% votes which is to be shared among the 4 top candidates which will give about 9% apiece. While South east has 12% vote which will be given to one person. Now do the maths and see if South east votes are insignificant.

PS: The 5% Buhari talked about doesn't mean that the voting strength of South east is 5%. He meant they gave him 5% of their votes while they gave Goodluck 95%, but I don't expect you to know that.

NothingDoMe:
Who be this one again?

Go and ask this your brother TechW .

Starcrest1:
You are intellectually handicapped. South east is 32% of the votes in the 13 core northern states.

Furthermore the core north has 36% votes which is to be shared among the 4 top candidates which will give about 9% apiece. While South east has 12% vote which will be given to one person. Now do the maths and see if South east votes are insignificant.

PS: The 5% Buhari talked about doesn't mean that the voting strength of South east is 5%. He meant they gave him 5% of their votes while they gave Goodluck 95%, but I don't expect you to know that.

I like how you're consoling yourself with a wild fantasy, even though your submission shows you're a political neophyte and armchair speculator.

The Igbo's did not only constitute 36% but 86% of votes in the 13 states of the core northern states. Lol!

Go and check the voting trends and patterns since 1993 in the core northern states if you can't process the situation well.

The core northern states don't split votes as such as they normally move along the same political direction dictated to them by their political/religious leaders.

Even when Buhari, Atiku, Ribadu were all on the ballot at the same time they never splitted votes, as Buhari even won in Adamawa state.

Well for people like you who feel so confident in their prediction, I normally ask this question:
When was the last time you predicted a presidential candidate and he won? This should help you have retrospection on your wild fantasy.

Aufbauh:
I like how you're consoling yourself with a wild fantasy, even though your submission shows you're a political neophyte and armchair speculator.

[b]The Igbo's did not only constitute 36% but 86% of votes in the 13 states of the core northern states[/b]Lol!

Go and check the voting trends and patterns since 1993 in the core northern states if you can't process the situation well.

The core northern states don't split votes as such as they normally move along the same political direction dictated to them by their political/religious leaders.

Even when Buhari, Atiku, Ribadu were all on the ballot at the same time they never splitted votes, as Buhari even won in Adamawa state.

Well for people like you who feel so confident in their prediction, I normally ask this question:
When was the last time you predicted a presidential candidate and he won? This should help you have retrospection on your wild fantasy.

You see why I said you are intellectually handicapped. I don't mean that Igbos constitute 32% of votes in the north. I meant that the percentage of The voting strength of South east is 32% of the entire core North.

SE = 11 million voters
NE+NW = 34 million voters

11,000,000÷34,000,000×100 = 32% not 5% as you wrongly stated.

You should actually pay for maths lessons you bloody urchin.

Aufbauh:
I asked you a simple question: when is the last time you supported or predicted a presidential candidate and he won?

I believed you supported and predicted GEJ in 2015, supported and predicted Atiku in 2019, and probably supported and predicted the reelection of Trump in far away America. What's the outcome?

You guys are political neophytes with very poor sense of judgement.

Even SE 95% votes is an equivalent of 5% votes in the Nigeria voters proven by the Buhari phenomenon 2915/2019.

You supported and predicted Buhari win in 2007 and 2011, you supported and predicted Olu Falae win 1999. 2015 and 2019 weren't the only election in Nigeria. For the fact that your candidate won doesn't make a nustrademus.

Starcrest1:
You see why I said you are intellectually handicapped. I don't mean that Igbos constitute 32% of votes in the north. I meant that the percentage of The voting strength of South east is 32% of the entire core North.

SE = 11 million voters
NE+NW = 34 million voters

11,000,000÷34,000,000×100 = 32% not 5% as you wrongly stated.

You should actually pay for maths lessons you bloody urchin.

Save me this your simple arithmetic that's inconsequential to the context.

I won't blame you cos you've shown brazen lack of capacity in analytic reasoning and poor sense of judgment akin to folks from the zone.

No matter how you wants to perceive it and create a feel good thought. Know this that the Buhari phenomenon in 2015 & 2019 has proven that votes from SE is inconsequential and insignificant.

I don't have time to trade shades of insult to an obvious slowpoke.

Aufbauh:
Save me this your simple arithmetic that's inconsequential to the context.

I won't blame you cos you've shown brazen lack of capacity in analytic reasoning and poor sense of judgment akin to folks from the zone.

No matter how you wants to perceive it and create a feel good thought. Know this that the Buhari phenomenon in 2015 & 2019 has proven that votes from SE is inconsequential and insignificant.

I don't have time to trade shades of insult to an obvious slowpoke.

Mumu go and eat agbado for breakfast analysis is not your forte