₦airaland Forum

Several people have projected the North Central to be the battle ground in the 2023 Presidential elections.

1. FCT: A traditional PDP stronghold, the party has produced the senators from 1999 to date and the two current rep members are of the PDP. The APC has not made much in-roads especially in the hinterlands while the LP will benefit from the young voters within the city center/suburbs and the voters of eastern origin, NNPP is non existent. In 2019 the PDP won with 61% of the votes and the party still has a strong grip on the rural voters within the territory and from the lack lustre push by the other parties, FCT will go to PDP.

Projection:
PDP 40%
LP 30%
APC 25%
OTHERS 5%

2. PLATEAU: Despite having a sitting APC governor in 2019, the party lost the presidential election to the PDP who won by 53%. 2023 will not be any different. Inspite the Governor being the DG of the APC campaign, Lalong keeps losing his political capital in the state by the day and of the 8 rep members, the PDP has 4 with the APC having 3 while the PRP has 1 although the APC has 2 of the 3 senators. The decision of the APC to go with a muslim/muslim ticket will without a doubt affect the results that will come out from plateau and the LP will not doubt benefit from the APC's choice of running mate especially in the urban areas however the rural areas is a different ball game. Plateau will go to PDP.

Projection:
PDP 45%
LP 25%
APC 25%
OTHERS 5%

3. KWARA: On performance the APC Governor has done poorly and the dislike for Lai Mohammed in his Oro is on the high. However, the APC still controls almost all the elective seats at the National assembly. A reinvigorated Saraki might try to push the numbers but I don't see much of an outcome, the LP is almost non-existent in here. Kwara is for APC.

Projection:
APC 60%
PDP 30%
LP 5%
OTHERS 5%

4. KOGI: It might be safe to say Kogi is in the bag for APC but saying that is disregarding the dynamics that may play out. The white Lion has a strong grip on the affairs of the state but the reality of 2023 elections is that the influence of Governors on the electorates will be diminished. Kogi Central and west maybe safe bets for APC but Kogi East that is most populous has some PDP sentiments. Kogi will go APC.

Projection:
APC 45%
PDP 30%
LP 20%
OTHERS 5%

5. BENUE: The APC has a strong Gubernatorial candidate in the person of Rev. Alia while the PDP's candidate for Governor is weak coupled with Ortom's abysmal performance as the State's chief executive and his non support for his party's Presidential candidate, but this does not tell the full story. APC though with a good candidate at the state level also has weak candidates for the National assembly elections and that election is the one that holds together with the presidential election. The LP is popular within the urban areas of the State but is non-existent in the rural areas. The PDP on the other hand has strong candidates (Suswam, Abba Morro etc) lining up on election day and almost all the state zonal big-wigs (Mark, Suswam, Morro, Jev etc) have refused to follow Ortom in his Wike adventure. Benue goes to PDP

Projection:
PDP 40%
APC 30%
LP 25%
OTHERS 5%

6. NASARAWA: Previously a traditional PDP State, the SDP somewhat has a statement in this state with 2 of the 5 rep members, the APC also has 2 while the PDP has 1 however the APC only edged out PDP by less than 6000 votes in 2019. The APC like in 2019 goes into the election with the strength of two former Governors and a sitting Governor but like in 2019 that will not count. LP will do well in the States most populous local government but one local government doesn't cut it. Nasarawa is too close to call.

Projection:
PDP 35%
APC 35%
LP 20%
SDP 5%
OTHERS 5%

7. NIGER: This is a strong APC State and the only thing giving others a chance here is ethnic sentiments as well as the poor performance of the APC in the State. If not for the presence of Ortom's Benue, Niger will rank top in terms of abysmal performance. Both the PDP and the NNPP candidates are popular amongst the masses while the LP has no traction in the State. The APC will rely on incumbency factor but the fact remains; Buhari will not be on the ballot. APC will struggle to win this State and so this is also too close to call.

Projection:
APC 40%
PDP 40%
NNPP 15%
OTHERS 5%





Mynd44
Lalasticlala

Fair but Till 25 February

Excellent analysis. I concur 100%

majole:
Excellent analysis. I concur 100%

Very good analysis but I'll give benue and plateau to labour

The truth is literacy will play lots of roll in Fct and as such Labour has it.

Plateau and benue will go to Labour and again literacy will play out.

I don't know much about other state as it were.


Thanks

aninibinladen:
Several people have projected the North Central to be the battle ground in the 2023 Presidential elections.

1. FCT: A traditional PDP stronghold, the party has produced the senators from 1999 to date and the two current rep members are of the PDP. The APC has not made much in-roads especially in the hinterlands while the LP will benefit from the young voters within the city center/suburbs and the voters of eastern origin, NNPP is non existent. In 2019 the PDP won with 61% of the votes and the party still has a strong grip on the rural voters within the territory and from the lack lustre push by the other parties, FCT will go to PDP.

Projection:
PDP 40%
LP 30%
APC 25%
OTHERS 5%

2. PLATEAU: Despite having a sitting APC governor in 2019, the party lost the presidential election to the PDP who won by 53%. 2023 will not be any different. Inspite the Governor being the DG of the APC campaign, Lalong keeps losing his political capital in the state by the day and of the 8 rep members, the PDP has 4 with the APC having 3 while the PRP has 1 although the APC has 2 of the 3 senators. The decision of the APC to go with a muslim/muslim ticket will without a doubt affect the results that will come out from plateau and the LP will not doubt benefit from the APC's choice of running mate especially in the urban areas however the rural areas is a different ball game. Plateau will go to PDP.

Projection:
PDP 45%
LP 25%
APC 25%
OTHERS 5%

3. KWARA: On performance the APC Governor has done poorly and the dislike for Lai Mohammed in his Oro is on the high. However, the APC still controls almost all the elective seats at the National assembly. A reinvigorated Saraki might try to push the numbers but I don't see much of an outcome, the LP is almost non-existent in here. Kwara is for APC.

Projection:
APC 60%
PDP 30%
LP 5%
OTHERS 5%

4. KOGI: It might be safe to say Kogi is in the bag for APC but saying that is disregarding the dynamics that may play out. The white Lion has a strong grip on the affairs of the state but the reality of 2023 elections is that the influence of Governors on the electorates will be diminished. Kogi Central and west maybe safe bets for APC but Kogi East that is most populous has some PDP sentiments. Kogi will go APC.

Projection:
APC 45%
PDP 30%
LP 20%
OTHERS 5%

5. BENUE: The APC has a strong Gubernatorial candidate in the person of Rev. Alia while the PDP's candidate for Governor is weak coupled with Ortom's abysmal performance as the State's chief executive and his non support for his party's Presidential candidate, but this does not tell the full story. APC though with a good candidate at the state level also has weak candidates for the National assembly elections and that election is the one that holds together with the presidential election. The LP is popular within the urban areas of the State but is non-existent in the rural areas. The PDP on the other hand has strong candidates (Suswam, Abba Morro etc) lining up on election day and almost all the state zonal big-wigs (Mark, Suswam, Morro, Jev etc) have refused to follow Ortom in his Wike adventure. Benue goes to PDP

Projection:
PDP 40%
APC 30%
LP 25%
OTHERS 5%

6. NASARAWA: Previously a traditional PDP State, the SDP somewhat has a statement in this state with 2 of the 5 rep members, the APC also has 2 while the PDP has 1 however the APC only edged out PDP by less than 6000 votes in 2019. The APC like in 2019 goes into the election with the strength of two former Governors and a sitting Governor but like in 2019 that will not count. LP will do well in the States most populous local government but one local government doesn't cut it. Nasarawa is too close to call.

Projection:
PDP 35%
APC 35%
LP 20%
SDP 5%
OTHERS 5%

7. NIGER: This is a strong APC State and the only thing giving others a chance here is ethnic sentiments as well as the poor performance of the APC in the State. If not for the presence of Ortom's Benue, Niger will rank top in terms of abysmal performance. Both the PDP and the NNPP candidates are popular amongst the masses while the LP has no traction in the State. The APC will rely on incumbency factor but the fact remains; Buhari will not be on the ballot. APC will struggle to win this State and so this is also too close to call.

Projection:
APC 40%
PDP 40%
NNPP 15%
OTHERS 5%





Mynd44
Lalasticlala

I like your analysis.I totally agree with your analysis on nasarawa.but what applies in nasarawa will be replicated in fct and plateau.
In plateau,pdp won narrowly with 53% in 2019 but pdp has been weakened by defections to lp plus pdp is divided between jang who is pro wike and useni who is for atiku.most lp supporters were formerly supporting pdp so pdp votes will nose dive.the anti fulani sentiment is vey high and they usually give more votes to southerners or Christians.for the apc,ex gov dariye who is still popular has endorsed tinubu and with lalong being on the ballot and also as dg of apc campaign,he will deliver plateau south by any means.it will be lp 40% apc 32% pdp 28%..

We have similar scenario in benue buy here,the voers are clearly against atiku due yo anti fulani sentiment plus the recent comment of ortom against him.obi will win benue,while apc will come a close second due to the popularity of akume,fr alia.in benue south,the apc candidate Daniel onjeh is very popular.david mark's daughter is also acceptable.it should be lp 45% apc 30% pdp 25%..
In fct,pdp usually wins narrowly but with most pdp voters going with lp,it is bad news for pdp...apc 30% pdp 30% lp 30% nnpp 10.
I thought niger was 50% 50% but with the recent rally in niger and all opinions poll results,tinubu will edge out atiku.apc 45% pdp 30% nnpp 15% lp 10%..
Buhari got 70% in kwara.with lp reducing pdp vote box,tinubu will get nothing less.apc 70% pdp 20% lp 10

kcpumping:
The truth is literacy will play lots of roll in Fct and as such Labour has it.

Plateau and benue will go to Labour and again literacy will play out.

I don't know much about other state as it were.


Thanks

True.the voting pattern in fct is like that of fct.non indigenes and educated ones vote PDP while northerners vote apc.now,the southern population that usually vote PDP is divided.
Benue is highly rural and underdeveloped So party structure will dominate

This is by far the fairest projection gojngvjnto the election.

Kudos

Nice analysis

senatordave1:
Very good analysis but I'll give benue and plateau to labour

labour party can't win any state outside South east. All these social media noise doesn't reach rural dwelling where the majority of votes are.

I don't understand why you all are so generous with LP in your analysis. I love Obi but there is no way he will get up to half of all these online projections.
the election is clearly going to PDP. Obi will be president but not this year.

senatordave1:
Very good analysis but I'll give benue and plateau to labour

Yeah the op analysis is close to reality and also your previous observations are equally practicable.

However the op is a little bit more generous to the PDP in these two states you've mentioned as Obi may take more from the PDP support base in these states.

In Benue, I also discovered that Obi is popular in the city centers but that cannot be said of the rural areas.
The influence of party structure and the highest bidder will play predominant role in the rural areas.

muykem:
labour party can't win any state outside South east. All these social media noise doesn't reach rural dwelling where the majority of votes are.

Benue state may be a joker for LP in the presidential election.
However the salient question is whether Obi has the money or the willingness to mobilize for the election.

Benue voters most especially those in the rural don't do a thing without an immediate interest. Those ones will go with the highest bidder and the direction of their benefactors.

Lies .

Wait till election to know.


Alot have changed and the dynamics is beyoind using last or previous elections to forecast this election.

This year election is going to shock you n your likes..

Obi is a huge factor

Front page worthy. Nlfpmod.

Clap for yourself.
So what of Edo that's a strong base for PDP, who do you think we're going to vote for?
Lemme tell you something bro, the election is unpredictable.
Mike Igini has warned that those doing permutations should not rely on their permutations because it will fail them.

senatordave1:
Very good analysis but I'll give benue and plateau to labour

labour party will not win Benue, even the 25% he give them is too much

Jones4190:
labour party will not win Benue, even the 25% he give them is too much

Better they win than pdp

senatordave1:
Very good analysis but I'll give benue and plateau to labour

Oga wake up from your day~ dreaming, there are many hausas in Plateau state than what you are thinking so don't give plateau to Obi. But as for me and my house we are BATIfied

This is your unnecessary write up is very uneducated and is reminiscent of the rubbish education in 90% of Nigerian schools (SW especially).

Channel your efforts where you are best (perfect).

Start from there.

Benue and Plateau will rather vote APC Muslim/Muslim ticket than vote another Fulani man.. Anyways I think LP would be winning the two.

senatordave1:
Better they win than pdp

PDP has a lot of internal problems in benue state, ortom is not campaigning for atiku, other party members are afraid of telling Benue people to vote for another Fulani man again, ortom fight with Ayu is not good for him, he might not even go for Senate, Ayu control three local government out of the seven locals government ortom want to represent, even when PDP where united in 2019, Atiku manage to win Benue with less than 400 vote

Let election come and all this permutations and analysis will die a natural death.

Na we be your best plug for everything sexual enhancement tho

Aufbauh:
Benue state may be a joker for LP in the presidential election.
However the salient question is whether Obi has the money or the willingness to mobilize for the election.

Benue voters most especially those in the rural don't do a thing without an immediate interest. Those ones will go with the highest bidder and the direction of their benefactors.

I can confidently tell you there is no one doing LP in Benue outside Makurdi and a very few flashes in Gboko and Oturkpo. 25% for Obi in Benue was even generous. I repeat, regardless of Ortom's journeys PDP still has an upper hand.

In Benue zone A, Suswam who is supporting Atiku along with his supporters is very much in control, almost all PDP contestants in this zone are with him.

In.zone B, it is safe to sat one half is with Ortom while the other half will go with Ayu. Also the current senator from the zone has asked all his supporters to vote Atiku. Ortom will probably convince his immediate Guma home and probably Gwer East & West, Makurdi will do LP. Gboko and Buruku will vote PDP while APC gets Tarka.

Zone C presents the surest bet for PDP, there is no point stressing Mark & Morro's influence. LP will do well in Oturkpo but will not win the LG.

kokoA:
Benue and Plateau will rather vote APC Muslim/Muslim ticket than vote another Fulani man.. Anyways I think LP would be winning the two.

False, LP will not win any state in the North Central. The LP noise in those States resides only in the state capitals.

kcpumping:
The truth is literacy will play lots of roll in Fct and as such Labour has it.

Plateau and benue will go to Labour and again literacy will play out.

I don't know much about other state as it were.


Thanks

There's more to FCT than the city center and it's immediate suburbs. Kuje, Gwagwalada, kali & Bwari have not caught the LP bug.

LP winning Benue or Plateau will be the miracle of the election!

You dont want Obi to be president this year? Suffer nor dey tire una?

whatmoreng:
I don't understand why you all are so generous with LP in your analysis. I love Obi but there is no way he will get up to half of all these online projections.
the election is clearly going to PDP. Obi will be president but not this year.

DMerciful:
You dont want Obi to be president this year? Suffer nor dey tire una?

Stop all the wishful thinking and embrace reality. How do you expect him to win? Does Labour Party have even a Councillor currently talk more of LGA chairman? Atiku is the better option now, a vote for Obi is an indirect vote for tinubu.
In Nigeria, structure is everything in an election.

aninibinladen:
There's more to FCT than the city center and it's immediate suburbs. Kuje, Gwagwalada, kali & Bwari have not caught the LP bug.

LP winning Benue or Plateau will be the miracle of the election!

Leave them. They will understand soon

aninibinladen:
False, LP will not win any state in the North Central. The LP noise in those States resides only in the state capitals.

The most painful of all these analysis is that of rivers state. How they project obi to win here is mind boggling, a state that have been giving PDP over 80% since 1999.
Even when Amaechi decamped to APC in 2015, APC didnt get 25%. The then Amaechi was more powerful and popular than our current noise maker.
And someone is telling me that LP will win Rivers.

Thats what they made you to believe. If you vote for Obi and I vote for Obi and we convince atleast 3 persons to vote for Obi why wont he win?

Dor how long would we continue to chant this structure nonsenae? You think it will wnd by itself if we dont kill it like corruption?

whatmoreng:
Stop all the wishful thinking and embrace reality. How do you expect him to win? Does Labour Party have even a Councillor currently talk more of LGA chairman? Atiku is the better option now, a vote for Obi is an indirect vote for tinubu.
In Nigeria, structure is everything in an election.