₦airaland Forum

You're imbecille.
They did import substitution.
That mean they tried to manufacture things they were importing from US and EU.
How can they be subservient when for decades they were trying to protect their industries.
Africa - did the same in 1960s - 1990s - failed. Central Asia failed.
Countries that did opposite - export manufacturing escaped the failures.

What works is to create full value chain industries grows organically until they are internationally competitive.

Just30:
Bunch of nonsense... It failed in Latin America because they choosed to be subservient to America and Europe. Plus being disobedient to the US will just lead to a coup in your country.

To Latin America, it was easier to just depend on import rather than innovating and it is no wonder they are all stuck in the middle income circle loop

In India - it failed. Import substitutions look very appealing but always almost fails. Countries should find where they are comparative good - whatever it is - and try to build exports.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/dont-resurrect-failed-policy-why-import-substitution-industrialisation-is-doomed-to-flounder-again/
For starters, import substitution industrialisation (ISI), which entails progressive replacement of imports by domestic production, is precisely the strategy we had pursued until 1991. That year, we finally recognised its total failure and switched to outward orientation. Those seeking its revival argue, however, that it will be different this time. Rather than take them for their word, let us examine whatever evidence exists.

Mkenya2019:
You build export - you don't worry about imports.
Reduce external debt - to bare minimum - so you're not forced to protect Naira or go bankrupt like Ghana.
Allow Naira/KES to collapse - it will fix imports. 1 dollar is equal to 23,000 veitname dong.
Exports will grow.

As principle import substitution has to be well thought and deliberate...and most important timed to expire.
It can never work in corrupt enviroment - where Dangote buys Aso rock - it requires very strong leadership that cares for the nation.
You cannot protect like Nigeria's almost 40 list of banned imports - perpetually - you're killing your economy.
Just see the poverty data.

Import substitution is the reason we didn't have a food crisis in Corona time.

India and Vietnam banned food exports.

Nigeria took a deliberate decision to grow grain production, not like Kenya looking for who would exchange tea for rice.

Nigeria's economic managers are trying to stabilize macroeconomic conditions. Nigerians have a very huge appetite for foreign goods.

It's only wise to ensure that basic things like food and fuel are covered by domestic production.

Nigeria cannot be industrialized without import substitution. Nigeria is not Kenya.

There are >200m Nigerians, that's is a readily available market to bank on.

You cannot have a 33% unemployment rate and be importing things as basic as eggs, if you don't want to do the hard work of guaranteeing food security like Kenya that's fine.

But when a global crisis happens significant enough to disrupt global value chains, you be the first on the line to suffer the consequences of your laziness and negligence like Kenya now.

You must be Buhari economist. You've done a wonderful job to manufacture poverty at industrial scale.
Import substitution is not mutually exclusive to domestic production.
It doesn't mean you dont grow rice - it just mean you try to grow rice as efficiently and as productive as asian farmers.
It means being aware that every minute you force Nigerian (200M) to buy expensive rice to protect your farmers (10m) you're hurting the
majority consumers.
Yes if there are issues that hinders rice growing in Nigeria - you can protect the domestic industry.
BUT you want to get out of that situation as soon as possible - you must tell rice farmers - what is ailing you that makes you uncompetitive.
You must agree to 5yr plan - or 3yr - okay fix ABC - after 5yrs - we allow you to sell expensive local rice - after that - we open the market for international competition.
Local industries lobbies and stakeholders will of course be lobbying for perpetual extension - the economy underwrite their unproductive and inefficiency - consumers are hurt - poverty grows.

Import substitution therefore fails if leadership is weak and corrupt - it can only work with people like Kagame or Singapores or Koreans or maybe even Ethiopia.

Disciplined, serious, non-corrupt gov that can tell industries - we are protecting you for 3yrs - import duty at 80% - after that we lower to 50% - after that we lower to 30% - after that 10% - after that you zero rate.

By then NIgeria rice farmers will be as competitive as anywhere in the world - and they will export rice - and economy will grow.

And this model applies to all countries - Nigeria or Kenya.

Subsaharan:
Import substitution is the reason we didn't have a food crisis in Corona time.

India and Vietnam banned food exports.

Nigeria took a deliberate decision to grow grain production, not like Kenya looking for who would exchange tea for rice.

Nigeria's economic managers are trying to stabilize macroeconomic conditions. Nigerians have a very huge appetite for foreign goods.

It's only wise to ensure that basic things like food and fuel are covered by domestic production.

Nigeria cannot be industrialized without import substitution. Nigeria is not Kenya.

There are >200m Nigerians, that's is a readily available market to bank on.

You cannot have a 33% unemployment rate and be importing things as basic as eggs, if you don't want to do the hard work of guaranteeing food security like Kenya that's fine.

But when a global crisis happens significant enough to disrupt global value chains, you be the first on the line to suffer the consequences of your laziness and negligence like Kenya now.

Mkenya2019:
You must be Buhari economist. You've done a wonderful job to manufacture poverty at industrial scale.
Import substitution is not mutually exclusive to domestic production.
It doesn't mean you dont grow rice - it just mean you try to grow rice as efficiently and as productive as asian farmers.
It means being aware that every minute you force Nigerian (200M) to buy expensive rice to protect your farmers (10m) you're hurting the
majority consumers.
Yes if there are issues that hinders rice growing in Nigeria - you can protect the domestic industry.
BUT you want to get out of that situation as soon as possible - you must tell rice farmers - what is ailing you that makes you uncompetitive.
You must agree to 5yr plan - or 3yr - okay fix ABC - after 5yrs - we allow you to sell expensive local rice - after that - we open the market for international competition.
Local industries lobbies and stakeholders will of course be lobbying for perpetual extension - the economy underwrite their unproductive and inefficiency - consumers are hurt - poverty grows.

Import substitution therefore fails if leadership is weak and corrupt - it can only work with people like Kagame or Singapores or Koreans or maybe even Ethiopia.

Disciplined, serious, non-corrupt gov that can tell industries - we are protecting you for 3yrs - import duty at 80% - after that we lower to 50% - after that we lower to 30% - after that 10% - after that you zero rate.

By then NIgeria rice farmers will be as competitive as anywhere in the world - and they will export rice - and economy will grow.

And this model applies to all countries - Nigeria or Kenya.

During that period, Nigeria achieved self-sufficiency in rice production, Nigeria also built the largest milling capacity on the continent

Energy security would be achieved very soon.

Those are real-time achievements, so I don't know what you are saying about corruption.

Continue importing toothpicks if it makes you feel any better.

Now you are struggling to find fx to pay for food are you here talking nonsense

You cannot achieve self-sufficiency when rice is twice expensive than international market.
That is total absolute madness.
That is manufacturing poverty.

You come back when nigeria has open all borders for all rice - and Nigeria farmers are still able to sell their local rice - because it's of high quality or competitive prices - value. Dont force Nigerians poor deeper into poverty - every inflation send the poor deeeeeeeeper into povery - as mos to their expenditure is FOOD.

In kenya for example - we produce very little rice - but it's of highest quality - Kenya middle class buy kenya's pishori rice for it's quality - then we flood cheap pakistani rice for the poor.

Kenya has not retained 750M of airlines; soon you wont be able to fly;
Everyone has forex issues - even oil giant like Nigeria - at least kenya we do not have forex control;
Nigeria - you're blocking airlines, MTNS and foreign companies to repatriate their dollars
That sign of impending doom.

Kenya
The forx are still flowing in and out.
We have 8B held in private accounts - 7B held by gov - so we have dollars.

We have market failure in forex market but we dont really care for short term - market will fix itself.

We are covered with fuel intil dec 31st (we signed 4.8B dollars credit supply). We are covered in food.

Subsaharan:
During that period, Nigeria achieved self-sufficiency in rice production, Nigeria also built the largest milling capacity on the continent

Energy security would be achieved very soon.

Those are real-time achievements, so I don't know what you are saying about corruption.

Continue importing toothpicks if it makes you feel any better.

Now you are struggling to find fx to pay for food are you here talking nonsense

rvp20182:
You cannot achieve self-sufficiency when rice is twice expensive than international market.
That is total absolute madness.
That is manufacturing poverty.

You come back when nigeria has open all borders for all rice - and Nigeria farmers are still able to sell their local rice - because it's of high quality or competitive prices - value. Dont force Nigerians poor deeper into poverty - every inflation send the poor deeeeeeeeper into povery - as mos to their expenditure is FOOD.

In kenya for example - we produce very little rice - but it's of highest quality - Kenya middle class buy kenya's pishori rice for it's quality - then we flood cheap pakistani rice for the poor.

Kenya has not retained 750M of airlines; soon you wont be able to fly;
Everyone has forex issues - even oil giant like Nigeria - at least kenya we do not have forex control;
Nigeria - you're blocking airlines, MTNS and foreign companies to repatriate their dollars
That sign of impending doom.

Kenya
The forx are still flowing in and out.
We have 8B held in private accounts - 7B held by gov - so we have dollars.

We have market failure in forex market but we dont really care for short term - market will fix itself.

We are covered with fuel intil dec 31st (we signed a 4.8B dollars credit supply). We are covered in food.

As I said before Nigeria is not barren ladden Kenya. Nigeria has 34 million hactares of arable land with a mean annual precipitation of
1, 165.0 nm per annum.

She also has a teeming population of >200m and has no business importing rice or any grain for that matter

rvp20182:
You cannot achieve self-sufficiency when rice is twice expensive than international market.
That is total absolute madness.
That is manufacturing poverty.

You come back when nigeria has open all borders for all rice - and Nigeria farmers are still able to sell their local rice - because it's of high quality or competitive prices - value. Dont force Nigerians poor deeper into poverty - every inflation send the poor deeeeeeeeper into povery - as mos to their expenditure is FOOD.

In kenya for example - we produce very little rice - but it's of highest quality - Kenya middle class buy kenya's pishori rice for it's quality - then we flood cheap pakistani rice for the poor.

Kenya has not retained 750M of airlines; soon you wont be able to fly;
Everyone has forex issues - even oil giant like Nigeria - at least kenya we do not have forex control;
Nigeria - you're blocking airlines, MTNS and foreign companies to repatriate their dollars
That sign of impending doom.

Kenya
The forx are still flowing in and out.
We have 8B held in private accounts - 7B held by gov - so we have dollars.

We have market failure in forex market but we dont really care for short term - market will fix itself.

We are covered with fuel intil dec 31st (we signed 4.8B dollars credit supply). We are covered in food.

an increasing number of people have been encouraged to cultivate even more hectares of land with an increasing demand for rice paddy from Mega rice mills, and millions of rural jobs created every farming season.

Not living in a price bubble that would crash any time (like now), caught sitting ducks.

Same story with cement;
Dangote is all over but Nigeria cement is twice expensive than Kenya.
Probably thrice than Egypt.

That is why cement consumption is stuck at 20m.
Kenya has risen from 2m - twenty years ago - to 10M metric tonnes now.

Nigeria was doing better when they were importing cheap cement - had even reached 40m metric tonnes

Now all local production has benefited Dangotes - but Nigerians are paying.

Import substitution is a very dangerous policy - unless you're discipline and no corrupt - and intelligent.

Outcome - Dangotes worth 20B - and Nigeria leading world in poverty (despite all gas and oil).

Wait for refinery - you will be buying Dangote fuel at twice the international price.

Dangote will bribe his way in Abuja by claiming he is saving forex and morons like you will buy it.

Subsaharan:
an increasing number of people have been encouraged to cultivate even more hectares of land with an increasing demand for rice paddy from Mega rice mills, and millions of rural jobs created every farming season.

Not living in a price bubble that would crash any time (like now), caught sitting ducks.

Nairobi Expressway

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFUMZ54t6Cw&t=134s

Accra N1


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-HCDqC-H34

Mkenya2019:
You're imbecille.
They did import substitution.
That mean they tried to manufacture things they were importing from US and EU.
How can they be subservient when for decades they were trying to protect their industries.
Africa - did the same in 1960s - 1990s - failed. Central Asia failed.
Countries that did opposite - export manufacturing escaped the failures.

What works is to create full value chain industries grows organically until they are internationally competitive.

Such level. Of stupidity

They gave up easily because of the US and EU using threats through WTO. Today what do they export, sugar and vegetables.

No Asian country failed .... The South Koreans imported US products and started doing copies of them. Immediately there were import substitution to cater for their market.
After doing it for so many years to feed their market, they became good at it and started meeting quality controls and ISO certifications to export.
You import substitute to cut down your import and meet a greater level of your demand before you export or else it will just be a waste of time

You think you can just get up and start exporting er? No one will buy your shit

Subsaharan:
Import substitution is the reason we didn't have a food crisis in Corona time.

India and Vietnam banned food exports.

Nigeria took a deliberate decision to grow grain production, not like Kenya looking for who would exchange tea for rice.

Nigeria's economic managers are trying to stabilize macroeconomic conditions. Nigerians have a very huge appetite for foreign goods.

It's only wise to ensure that basic things like food and fuel are covered by domestic production.

Nigeria cannot be industrialized without import substitution. Nigeria is not Kenya.

There are >200m Nigerians, that's is a readily available market to bank on.

You cannot have a 33% unemployment rate and be importing things as basic as eggs, if you don't want to do the hard work of guaranteeing food security like Kenya that's fine.

But when a global crisis happens significant enough to disrupt global value chains, you be the first on the line to suffer the consequences of your laziness and negligence like Kenya now.

Thumb up

Just30:
Such level. Of stupidity

They gave up easily because of the US and EU using threats through WTO. Today what do they export, sugar and vegetables.

No Asian country failed .... The South Koreans imported US products and started doing copies of them. Immediately there were import substitution to cater for their market.
After doing it for so many years to feed their market, they became good at it and started meeting quality controls and ISO certifications to export.
You import substitute to cut down your import and meet a greater level of your demand before you export or else it will just be a waste of time

You think you can just get up and start exporting er? No one will buy your shit

Kenyans re so poor when it comes to agro processing industries.
No wonder they keep producing tea with the little fertile land they have for export. Am sure the West were the one who told them to face tea production and ignore other important food product their citizens eat.
No wonder every year the West media will use Kenya stunted citizen as an advert of African poverty on their television and the Kenyans still don't have sense to retrace their steps.
The West bend them willingly as they like.
Thesame dunces will call themselves brave whenever we talking of african country with balls.

Lame excuses move from India to China now back to west - as you grapple to understand Kenyan economy.
Kenya is one of sub-sahara Africa success story despite being semi-arid and lacking minerals.
We couldn't have had the largest non-mineral economy in Africa if we didnt have sound economic footing..
Nairobi would not be rivalling south africa cities - if we were as dysfunctional as Nigeria.
We won't be enjoying 24hrs of electricity - with or without drought - plus great infrastracture - if we had Nigeria like cows leading us.

And slowpoke - people have economic freedom to decide what they grow - if they want to plant tea - they go for it - they earn money and use it to buy rice.

You dont have to plant rice - when you can go for high value foods like tea, coffee, horticulture, floriculture, potatoes, avacados, dairy. That is why import substitution fails - because you're busy planting things you can cheaply import from Asia.

QuietMynd:
Kenyans re so poor when it comes to agro processing industries.
No wonder they keep producing tea with the little fertile land they have for export. Am sure the West were the one who told them to face tea production and ignore other important food product their citizens eat.
No wonder every year the West media will use Kenya stunted citizen as an advert of African poverty on their television and the Kenyans still don't have sense to retrace their steps.
The West bend them willingly as they like.
Thesame dunces will call themselves brave whenever we talking of african country with balls.

West Africa zoos will get to Nairobi in year - actually they wont

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDY6s472ZFU

As west africa zoos grapples with failed import substitution - kenya - one of africa fastest growing economy -is building 100 huge water dams and irrigations


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu1DZw_j-TM


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKIACu3a_yM

Well that's better than usual interchanges I see in Accra - located in slums.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4jtNPIcx5U

Just30:
Accra N1


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-HCDqC-H34

QuietMynd:
Kenyans re so poor when it comes to agro processing industries.
No wonder they keep producing tea with the little fertile land they have for export. Am sure the West were the one who told them to face tea production and ignore other important food product their citizens eat.
No wonder every year the West media will use Kenya stunted citizen as an advert of African poverty on their television and the Kenyans still don't have sense to retrace their steps.
The West bend them willingly as they like.
Thesame dunces will call themselves brave whenever we talking of african country with balls.

They don't have sense

Mkenya2019:
Well that's better than usual interchanges I see in Accra - located in slums.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4jtNPIcx5U

Accra, slums, where?

The slum Capital of Africa really needs to up it infrastructure game

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeKqxazjK6g

Mkenya2019:
As west africa zoos grapples with failed import substitution - kenya - one of africa fastest growing economy -is building 100 huge water dams and irrigations


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu1DZw_j-TM


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKIACu3a_yM

Dams to go and water tea again?

When are you going to increase your rice production from the tiny 10,000 tonnage to the 1.3 million tons that you need?

How about beans, Soya and maize which are all important staples for your economy? Your economy is not going anywhere with such a huge trade deficit

Your hungry zoo need to learn common sense and I'm not surprised that the dollar shortage has gotten worse

@Mkenya2019

https://www.dw.com/en/kenya-dollar-shortage-hits-motorists-and-traders/a-65016764?maca=en-Twitter-sharing

Kenya

Boda Boda motorcycle taxi workers stand in line to fuel at a gas station in Nairobi, KenyaBoda Boda motorcycle taxi workers stand in line to fuel at a gas station in Nairobi, Kenya

BUSINESSAFRICA
Kenya: Dollar shortage hits motorists and traders
Cai Nebe | Andrew Wasike
16 hours ago16 hours ago

Kenya's economy is grappling with a shortage of foreign exchange reserves. As consumers feel the pain, bigger structural problems remain, and experts say relief might not come.

Kenya, the most dynamic economy in East Africa, has a shortage of dollars. Most fuel and oil importers claim they cannot import the commodities because of the dip in the supply of foreign currency.

This has led to fuel shortages in major places around the country especially the capital, Nairobi, where motorist Ibrahim Ngaumbua waits in a long line to fill up.

"This is the third petrol station that I have come to," he complains. "I am looking for fuel."

This Shell filling station has run out of regular petrol, but the more expensive V-Power fuel is still available.

"I just decided to fuel V-Power but I don't know where I can get the regular petroleum anymore," Ngaumbua told DW.

Domino effect
The dip in Kenya's foreign exchange (forex) reserves is being blamed for the current crunch hitting Kenyan consumers. The first to feel the pain are traders and motorists trying to fill up, with some filling stations running out of petrol and diesel, especially in Nairobi.

Because Kenya's oil and fuel importers use U.S dollars to buy fuel, the forex shortage has had a direct impact on the country's fuel supplies, and by extension, the country's supply chain.

But it has has also impacted essential imports such as medicine and food. With insufficient hard currency, both major and small-scale traders claim they cannot import goods.

Gov jobs end with providing water. If people want to grow apples or sisal with it - that is their business. They can use it to swim or whatever - as long as they pay their water bills.

Kenya gov will buy or import critical strategic food and oil reserves - and store them for the rainy day - every year.

For example

The goverment will use KNTC import large quantities of food stuff duty-free to stabilise prices.

KNTC is set to import rice amounting to 150,000 tons, cooking oil (125,000 tons), sugar (200,000 tons), wheat (25,000 tons) and beans (80,000 tons).

Just30:
Dams to go and water tea again?

When are you going to increase your rice production from the tiny 10,000 tonnage to the 1.3 million tons that you need?

How about beans, Soya and maize which are all important staples for your economy? Your economy is not going anywhere with such a huge trade deficit

Your hungry zoo need to learn common sense and I'm not surprised that the dollar shortage has gotten worse

Kenya has enough fuel to last upto dec 31st after we entered a 4.8B deal. Some oil marketers were trying to intimidate gov - but gov to gov deal has been concluded.

There is of course general dollar shortage everywhere - but kenya has 3.6 import cover - just slightly below 4 months recommended.

Nigeria the zoo has locked up 750M from airlines.


Patrick Heinisch
@PatrickHeinisc1
·
Mar 14
#Kenya’s gov. signs deal with Saudi Aramco to supply🇰🇪with diesel & super for the next 6 months, while Abu Dhabi Adnoc will deliver 3 cargoes of super petrol every month. 🇰🇪oil companies will pay for oil imported on credit through gov.-to-gov. deal in KSh.

GeneralDae:
@Mkenya2019

https://www.dw.com/en/kenya-dollar-shortage-hits-motorists-and-traders/a-65016764?maca=en-Twitter-sharing

Mkenya2019:
Gov jobs end with providing water. If people want to grow apples or sisal with it - that is their business. They can use it to swim or whatever - as long as they pay their water bills.

Kenya gov will buy or import critical strategic food and oil reserves - and store them for the rainy day - every year.

For example

The goverment will use KNTC import large quantities of food stuff duty-free to stabilise prices.

KNTC is set to import rice amounting to 150,000 tons, cooking oil (125,000 tons), sugar (200,000 tons), wheat (25,000 tons) and beans (80,000 tons).

So there's no benefit to the dam and it was just a waste of money. You import bill still remains the same.

You guys are not serious with transforming your economy

Mkenya2019:
Kenya has enough fuel to last upto dec 31st after we entered a 4.8B deal. Some oil marketers were trying to intimidate gov - but gov to gov deal has been concluded.

There is of course general dollar shortage everywhere - but kenya has 3.6 import cover - just slightly below 4 months recommended.

Nigeria the zoo has locked up 750M from airlines.


Patrick Heinisch
@PatrickHeinisc1
·
Mar 14
#Kenya’s gov. signs deal with Saudi Aramco to supply🇰🇪with diesel & super for the next 6 months, while Abu Dhabi Adnoc will deliver 3 cargoes of super petrol every month. 🇰🇪oil companies will pay for oil imported on credit through gov.-to-gov. deal in KSh.

Another lie, you only have fuel store for a months usage and even that, there no forex to pay for it

Dam is to provide enough water for domestic, commercial and farming activities.
Gov will also provide irrigation land - give it to private farmers - and they will decide what to plant.
Gov will not direct people on how to use water and what to plant.
Gov will provide incentive in priority areas - but will generally allow free trade to flourish.
We have east africa free trade - want to have africa free trade
Market economy decides - for example- it may be cheaper to import TZ rice - than kenya to plant them.

For now, gov has identifies areas it can assist build value chain - none is on maize - our staple - but we have dairy, tea, rice, cotton, leather etc.

Capitalism knows what is best. Markets demand and supply forces is the best policy maker.

Ghana being a communist backwater will never understand.

Just30:
So there's no benefit to the dam and it was just a waste of money. You import bill still remains the same.

You guys are not serious with transforming your economy

We have 9 months supply deal - that ensure fuel supply. There rest are beyond you. You're not Saudi or UAES. Kenyans will buy fuel - at petrol pump - money given to Saudis. Previously we had to buy before using. Now we get the oil on credit - and pay after use.

How is poor Ghana GOLD FOR OIL DEAL

Did you find any takers?

Just30:
Another lie, you only have fuel store for a months usage and even that, there no forex to pay for it

Mkenya2019:
Dam is to provide enough water for domestic, commercial and farming activities.
Gov will also provide irrigation land - give it to private farmers - and they will decide what to plant.
Gov will not direct people on how to use water and what to plant.
Gov will provide incentive in priority areas - but will generally allow free trade to flourish.
We have east africa free trade - want to have africa free trade
Market economy decides - for example- it may be cheaper to import TZ rice - than kenya to plant them.

For now, gov has identifies areas it can assist build value chain - none is on maize - our staple - but we have dairy, tea, rice, cotton, leather etc.

Capitalism knows what is best. Markets demand and supply forces is the best policy maker.

Ghana being a communist backwater will never understand.

It will never be cheaper to import any food than to plant it yourself.
One description of communism where countries who couldn't feed themselves.
Communist Kenya will keep being the North Korea of Africa

Mkenya2019:
We have 9 months supply deal - that ensure fuel supply. There rest are beyond you. You're not Saudi or UAES. Kenyans will buy fuel - at petrol pump - money given to Saudis. Previously we had to buy before using. Now we get the oil on credit - and pay after use.

How is poor Ghana GOLD FOR OIL DEAL

Did you find any takers?

You don't have dollars to pay for the fuel, so the one month stored fuel will stay in the tanks and the pines at fuel stations will keep getting longer and longer like Venezuela.

I cant believe Communist Kenya have to queue for everything including the very basic.
That's a broken country