BTC CYCLE EXPLAINED IN DETAIL FOR A 7 YEAR OLD TO UNDERSTAND
0. 2009 - 2012 introduction cycle
1. 2012 - 2016 cycle 1, but ends in 2013
2. 2016 - 2020 cycle 2, but ends in 2017
3. 2020 - 2024 cycle 3, but ends in 2021
4. 2024 - 2028 cycle 4, but ends in 2025
5. 2028 - 2032 cycle 5, but ends in 2029
6. 2032 - 2036 cycle 5, but ends in 2033
7. 2036 - 2040 cycle 5, but ends in 2037
And so on.
Twelve months from the top of the previous season to the bottom, the new season begins and it's segmented into 3 stages.
Example: 2020 to 2024 cycle hit the top in Nov/Dec. 2021 and started going down to hit the bottom in Nov/Dec. 2022. Ended so early?
Yes, so early, because it started so early too without people realizing it because they were still going through the joy of their wins or the pains of their losses in the previous cycle.
So, they didn't remember the moment BTC bottomed, a new cycle had begun inside the previous cycle and BTC dom has started all over again.
Putting the 4-year cycle into 3 stages or seasons, even though most people like putting it into two phases of bull market (up) and bear market (down), we have...
BTC DOMINANCE SEASON
Stage One: 1 year and 6 months after the bottom of the previous cycle. (BTC dominance takes over while alts pump a little, but bleed like Sallah ram. It keeps happening - pump and dump - until they have lost 70-90% of blood a couple of times, not just once or twice. They bleed silently.
In BTC dominance season, an alt that lost 90% in the last bear market will still lose 50-90% more as long as it's not among the top 10-15 coins or top 3 meme coins with a huge community to pump and sustain it early).
PUMP AND BLEED SEASON
Stage Two: 1 year and 0 months more. (BTC dominance continues, but ETH tries to take power with some top 10-50 altcoin gang members, especially the newly listed ones owned by big institutions or communities, but they couldn't. This is the period to use the 3 Magical Boxes technique to trade the pump and bleed of alts.
The pump and dump of stage 1 continues even though the newly listed coins are pumping 100%, 300% to 6000% per day, they'll still dump weeks or months later and succumb to BTC dominance.
This is like a recovery phase for these old altcoins, but it's not easy. They are getting tired, but they can't do anything other than pump and bleed to a new low.
BTC went parabolic for a pre-halving rally and did more than 50% pump within a week to get the whole world excited again that the bull reason is back, but all the people who shorted it got liquidated. Sadly, his children, the altcoins, didn't move much, except for 5 stubborn newly (born) listed ones.
After some consolidations with a couple of bad news that didn't favour the crypto market, BTC lost 5-7% in price, not in dominance, but weak alts dumped so hard in price and in dominance for the 20th time since the season started.
All those who refused to take profit whenever alts pump, have lost their gains and even some of their capital. Their DCA approach has failed. Why? Wrong timing.
You're only allowed to DCA into the top 10-15 altcoins the day BTC bottomed and ignore the other alts (or day-trade them only) because they'll keep bleeding whenever BTC sneezes even if the price of BTC didn't dump, at least, the dominance pumped behind the scene — after a small pump, comes a big dump on alts as BTC takes over market dominance in price and in percentage.
A lot of people started shorting BTC because of bad rumours circulating social media and it made another unexpected parabolic move again against popular opinion to liquidate them and it's now closer to the previous all-time-high, but didn't break it (in most cases) or maybe, it did (in rare cases).
So far, so sad, two years and six months of frustrating newbies who started DCAing into below top 10-15 alts is gone and we're left with 1 year and 6 months of regret by too-early DCA'ers and those who were still waiting for BTC to come down 1k, 12k, etc.
They've been left behind by BTC and their below top 10-15 alts bag is also bleeding to death. Double loss, hence they start revenge-trading to meet up with shorts and longs.
They make profit today, it bleeds tomorrow and they lose a huge percentage, if not all. It has always been like that.
ALTCOIN SEASON
Stage Three: 1 year and 6 months final stage. (Halving just happened, but everywhere is so calm. No pump, no dump. The market is silent and boring in most cases.
Newbies were thinking halving will make the market pump, but no, it doesn't; instead, it makes it dump after a period of boring consolidations and that is the lowest price BTC will ever go in that season except a black swan event happens as it did in 2020 when COVID19 became a pandemic.
BTC has still refused ETH, his first son, to take over the leadership mantle, but at least, ETH is not doing badly anymore, unlike months ago, even though they're both stagnant right now.
Three weeks to one month later, after halving, BTC lost 5-10% after a brief fake rally that alts didn't participate in, yet alts profusely bled 30-50%, but recovered immediately a little bit and some people who bought the dip are in profit, but it's a trap because it will soon go down again. It's a 5-green-day party, which happens 3 times within 1-7 or more days (extended version).
Two to seven days later, BTC acted as if he wanted to go downstairs to take food, but alts bled again out of fear because they thought Big Daddy is going there to take cane to whip them, but they had already peed in their diapers.
Luckily, ETH got upset and made some moves after some good news that favoured its ecosystem and alts followed, but BTC sneezed again and they dumped further, losing all the gains they made a few days ago.
As all these things were happening, different chains, companies, communities, etc. were pushing their updates, upgrade, mainnet, launch this, launch that, migration, etc. the industry is getting busy while pumping and bleeding.
BTC went back up to a range and was within that range for months while making sure alts don't pump too much, but newly launched stubborn alts refused to listen to him. A good time to use the 3 Magical Boxes approach to trade just as you did in stage 2.
He's beginning to lose his respect after 3-5 months of keeping the market stagnant while its dominance keeps increasing, but not the price as alts bleed at every sneeze from their dominant father, BTC.
FOMC meeting that was supposed to announce rate cut in June-July finally did it in September and the market was shaken, and everywhere was temporarily bloody, but BTC still kept its dominance at 52-58%).
Pump and dump of meme coins and other categories kept happening since the coast is almost clear. Also, the US election in November and Christmas in December added their spices.
Some funny news almost brought us back to square 1 and BTC dumped, but not up to the level of halving dump. Maybe, almost, and maybe, lower because sometimes, new things happen.
Everyone thought the bullrun had ended prematurely. Dissatisfaction here and there and thousands of crypto influencers and analysts started posting videos every 30 minutes on YouTube to air their views.
Some lucky newbies made money, but most lost and gave up as they tag crypto a scam.
JANUARY NEXT YEAR came and everyone was hearing news of the market pumping as a happy new year gift.
When they checked their dashboards, but it had already started crashing again, then consolidated. The market ranged for months as new coins kept coming up, pump so hard, then dump.
Finally, from June-July-August, BTC hits its highest dominance and decided step down in dominance, but not much in price, and hands over the mantle to ETH and his siblings from different mothers (ecosystem) memes, RWA, AI, Gaming, etc. These siblings will have a meeting and agree on the ecosystem to go first.
The long awaited ALT SEASON took over, long leverages get flushed as some BTC holders and weak miners sold and bought alts, based on the ecosystem that'll go first, then rotate to the second one and so on and the whole world will be swimming in parabolic green candles for months with minor and sometimes, heavy corrections to liquidate over-leveraged traders.
Greed is at 85%, but no one cares. The euphoria got to every corners of the world and everyone wanted to invest in crypto.
November came and some OGs left the market at 80-91% greed, thinking it's the end because their different indicators said so. Not bad, anyway. I would too.
Some moderately experienced rich traders started shorting with high leverage, thinking we're about to slump, only to realize there is a final blow-off-top with a God candle — the longest upside candle of the season and they got rekt.
Some got tempted to come back and join the pump, but realized what happened to them in previous season(s) and decided to place short positions only with small leverage.
At this time, BTC price went up further, but the dominance has reduced to just 40-20% while alts' dominance is at 70-80%.
The newbies never wanted this flow of free money to end. They have convinced even their dogs, cats, grandma, and enemies to invest in it.
Binance and Coinbáse apps are now the most downloaded on Playstore and Appstore. Every 5 social media short clips you watch, crypto is at least one of them. Even kidnappers will start telling their victims to pay via BTC.
Girls who only cared about eyelashes, BBL, BBC, CNN, NTA and Brazilian hairs are now talking about crypto.
Pastors and imams who spoke against it are now praising it because their son made 7+ million and bought them brand new chairs, phones, foodstuff, paid rent, etc.
Greed is now at 96% but these people have no idea of these indicators. YouTube and Google searches of Bitcoin, meme coin, Doge coin and crypto are blowing up.
They kept FOMOing to any coin that launches and pumps without realizing it's all a trap. There is money and chaos in the air. As the elders would say, big money doesn't like noise.
After some days of this final euphoria, in November or December or any of the "-ember" months, the bad men in black suits dropped a terrible news and the bad boys that do their dirty work pulled the trigger and everywhere became bloody. No single coin in green.
Instantly, BTC dominance begins to rise even though the price is dropping while alts are bleeding.
Suicide and tears here and there from newbies who borrowed millions or used important money budgeted for something urgent to invest at the top. It's quite lonely up there, isn't it?
Two weeks later, the market tried to pump and FOMOers got excited again, but there was neither volume nor strength to carry on, so it dumped again and they lost.
Those that shorted at the top are praying and begging God for the market not to bounce and turn to extended altseason.
They're praying for more dumps, while the newbies and FOMOers who couldn't control their emotions are bleeding, panicking and praying for pump, so they could at least break even.
Some of them cut their losses and vowed never to come back to crypto again. 🤣
This pump and dump took a year and we finally hit the bottom in November or December or January, the following year.
From here, stage one starts again and BTC dominance begins (oh, it had already begun when alts and BTC started dumping from the top), as the process repeats itself with a slight change of event, but the same theme and template.
At this point, the current top 10-15 altcoins are a little different compared to last season.
In summary, the bear market for BTC and the top 10-15 altcoins is only 1 year while the bear market for every other altcoins from sixteen down to thousand of alts out there is 3 years and a combination of 1+3 gives us the 4 year cycle.
This is a secret 99% of gurus on YouTube will never reveal to you because if everyone knows it, the market will be like Real Madrid VS Bayern Leverkusen.
It will be boring until the 70th minute (7 months to the top of the market), and you'll start seeing goals from left, right and center. The end for now. |
