₦airaland Forum

My team and I have been working on research for a few months now, which involves calls, on-ground surveys, and discussions with locals from all 36 states and the FCT. The research includes questions on ethnicity, religion, economic status, and political preference. While it is commonly believed in Nigeria that there are more Muslims, the results of the survey suggest otherwise.

Here are the figures we used the latest 2023 population estimates by states to come up with the figures by state.
Here is the list of states by Muslim population, including state populations, broken down by geopolitical zone, with totals and percentages:

### **Northwest Zone**
1. **Kano**:
- Muslim Population: 14,952,261
- State Population: 16,253,549
- Percentage: 92%
2. **Katsina**:
- Muslim Population: 9,207,378
- State Population: 9,300,382
- Percentage: 99%
3. **Jigawa**:
- Muslim Population: 6,839,498
- State Population: 6,979,080
- Percentage: 98%
4. **Sokoto**:
- Muslim Population: 6,132,371
- State Population: 6,163,187
- Percentage: 99.5%
5. **Zamfara**:
- Muslim Population: 5,297,081
- State Population: 5,517,793
- Percentage: 96%
6. **Kaduna**:
- Muslim Population: 4,578,357
- State Population: 8,324,285
- Percentage: 55%
7. **Kebbi**:
- Muslim Population: 4,681,256
- State Population: 6,001,610
- Percentage: 78%
8. **Sokoto**:
- Muslim Population: 6,132,371
- State Population: 6,163,187
- Percentage: 99.5%

**Total Northwest Population**: 58,539,886
**Total Muslim Population**: 51,688,201
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 88.3%

### **Northeast Zone**
1. **Borno**:
- Muslim Population: 4,656,113
- State Population: 6,651,590
- Percentage: 70%
2. **Adamawa**:
- Muslim Population: 2,094,779
- State Population: 5,236,948
- Percentage: 40%
3. **Yobe**:
- Muslim Population: 3,175,793
- State Population: 4,350,401
- Percentage: 73%
4. **Gombe**:
- Muslim Population: 2,496,671
- State Population: 4,623,462
- Percentage: 54%
5. **Taraba**:
- Muslim Population: 952,455
- State Population: 4,331,885
- Percentage: 22%

**Total Northeast Population**: 25,194,286
**Total Muslim Population**: 13,375,811
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 53.1%

### **Northcentral Zone**
1. **Niger**:
- Muslim Population: 4,032,370
- State Population: 6,720,617
- Percentage: 60%
2. **Kwara**:
- Muslim Population: 2,640,955
- State Population: 4,259,613
- Percentage: 62%
3. **FCT**:
- Muslim Population: 1,920,977
- State Population: 4,802,443
- Percentage: 40%
4. **Nasarawa**:
- Muslim Population: 1,634,507
- State Population: 3,632,239
- Percentage: 45%
5. **Plateau**:
- Muslim Population: 1,620,292
- State Population: 5,400,974
- Percentage: 30%
6. **Benue**:
- Muslim Population: 468,139
- State Population: 6,687,706
- Percentage: 7%

**Total Northcentral Population**: 36,557,326
**Total Muslim Population**: 14,995,718
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 41.0%

### **Southwest Zone**
1. **Lagos**:
- Muslim Population: 5,362,780
- State Population: 15,772,884
- Percentage: 34%
2. **Ogun**:
- Muslim Population: 2,384,752
- State Population: 6,445,275
- Percentage: 37%
3. **Osun**:
- Muslim Population: 1,780,506
- State Population: 4,237,396
- Percentage: 42%
4. **Oyo**:
- Muslim Population: 3,456,134
- State Population: 7,512,855
- Percentage: 46%
5. **Ondo**:
- Muslim Population: 765,759
- State Population: 5,469,707
- Percentage: 14%
6. **Ekiti**:
- Muslim Population: 509,726
- State Population: 3,398,177
- Percentage: 15%

**Total Southwest Population**: 42,836,294
**Total Muslim Population**: 14,259,657
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 33.3%

### **Southsouth Zone**
1. **Edo**:
- Muslim Population: 1,445,718
- State Population: 5,161,137
- Percentage: 28%
2. **Delta**:
- Muslim Population: 274,839
- State Population: 6,107,543
- Percentage: 4.5%
3. **Rivers**:
- Muslim Population: 347,278
- State Population: 7,234,973
- Percentage: 4.8%
4. **Cross River**:
- Muslim Population: 16,700
- State Population: 4,175,020
- Percentage: 0.4%
5. **Akwa Ibom**:
- Muslim Population: 46,245
- State Population: 5,780,581
- Percentage: 0.8%
6. **Bayelsa**:
- Muslim Population: 23,947
- State Population: 2,394,725
- Percentage: 1%

**Total Southsouth Population**: 30,853,979
**Total Muslim Population**: 2,154,727
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 7.0%

### **Southeast Zone**
1. **Enugu**:
- Muslim Population: 296,285
- State Population: 5,396,098
- Percentage: 5.5%
2. **Abia**:
- Muslim Population: 145,258
- State Population: 4,841,943
- Percentage: 3%
3. **Anambra**:
- Muslim Population: 132,498
- State Population: 5,299,910
- Percentage: 2.5%
4. **Ebonyi**:
- Muslim Population: 60,107
- State Population: 4,007,155
- Percentage: 1.5%
5. **Imo**:
- Muslim Population: 54,610
- State Population: 6,067,722
- Percentage: 0.9%

**Total Southeast Population**: 25,612,828
**Total Muslim Population**: 688,758
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 2.7%

### **Summary of Total Figures**
- **Total Muslim Population in North**: 97,162,872
- **Total Muslim Population in South**: 16,402,142

These are the figures.
The total percentage is 44.3%

Nice to hear!

Your stat didnt account for traditionalists and Atheists

its gonna be hard to believe u also cause you are not NPC or an affiliate of any UN-group on population census

And now that you arrived at this phantom numbers, why do u try to make it a declaration as if out knowledge of Muslim population is gonna spur us to do anything at all?

Lol,
Consolation,
Why then did two Muslims came first and second in the last presidential elections despite that Christian candidate called the election a religion war.

I came across Christians that were not allowed to come to church until they got their voters card.


Kano Population alone is enough to eclipse all the Christians in our dear SE alone


If the idea that Christians outnumber Muslims gives you a dopamine hit, go ahead and keep believing. The country’s tough enough, and I’d hate to rain on your parade.

Now that you have removed kogi state from Nigeria now, how will i believe this your numbers

What type of trash is this?

Codepain:
Lol,
Consolation,
Why then did two Muslims came first and second in the last presidential elections despite that Christian candidate called the election a religion war.

I came across Christians that were not allowed to come to church until they got their voters card.


Kano Population alone is enough to eclipse all the Christians in our dear SE alone


If the idea that Christians outnumber Muslims gives you a dopamine hit, go ahead and keep believing. The country’s tough enough, and I’d hate to rain on your parade.

Allow free and fair election una no gree.
Do census that include tribe and religion una no gree.What you are afraid of?

Good

Now share the stat on ethnicity

Ojiofor:
Allow free and fair election una no gree.
Do census that include tribe and religion una no gree.What you are afraid of?

No mind them, see where mu-mu ticket don carry us reach, Country have scattered.

Your research will need to be seen.
I would be interested in reviewing your research. I want to see the type of study, how you carried out the survey and how you sampled the population. And many things.
Why are there not other religious or non religious groups? Many questions to be asked.
The population of Anambra state in relation to other states is a surprise, but I would like to be open minded if actually it is a genuine research you did. I am definitely interested in the research

Nigeria isn't a Muslim dominated country according to worlddata.com but Yakubu Gowon fake Christian convert head of state then did took Nigeria to join OIC ( Organisation of Islamic Cooperation). We are on a long thing in this country . Ahmadu Bello statement in October 12,1960, just 11 days after the fake October 1st independence comes to mind.

Codepain:
Lol,
Consolation,
Why then did two Muslims came first and second in the last presidential elections despite that Christian candidate called the election a religion war.

I came across Christians that were not allowed to come to church until they got their voters card.


Kano Population alone is enough to eclipse all the Christians in our dear SE alone


If the idea that Christians outnumber Muslims gives you a dopamine hit, go ahead and keep believing. The country’s tough enough, and I’d hate to rain on your parade.

Is it only Muslims that voted for Tinubu? Ekiti and Ondo that are prediominantly Christians, did Tinubu not win? Did he not win in porthacourt and some south south where they are mostly Christians? It was not a religion based voting system, it was rather of popularity and some element of ethinicity based voting pattern. Ordinary Lagos and Abuja that some wanted to vote based on religion, did Muslim win? If vote is based on religion alone, Muslims can't win

Just because the northerners don't want balablue again you launch a campaign against them.
I have never seen a tribe like these afonjassdd before filled with hat.e.

DevilsEqual:
Your stat didnt account for traditionalists and Atheists

its gonna be hard to believe u also cause you are not NPC or an affiliate of any UN-group on population census

And now that you arrived at this phantom numbers, why do u try to make it a declaration as if out knowledge of Muslim population is gonna spur us to do anything at all?

Even out of substantial amount of people he counted as Muslims,some of them might still be traditionalists especially in South west bearing Muslim names. The research seems close to reality as Christianity is penetrating north than Islam is penetrating south. Some fullanis are also becoming Christians than Igbos are becoming muslims

The percentage is measured by indigenous people or residence?

If it's by indegenous people, Abia, Anambra and Enugu can't have more muslims than Ebonyi

Is it by residence or indigenous people ?

Peterlandil:
My team and I have been working on research for a few months now, which involves calls, on-ground surveys, and discussions with locals from all 36 states and the FCT. The research includes questions on ethnicity, religion, economic status, and political preference. While it is commonly believed in Nigeria that there are more Muslims, the results of the survey suggest otherwise.

Here are the figures we used the latest 2023 population estimates by states to come up with the figures by state.
Here is the list of states by Muslim population, including state populations, broken down by geopolitical zone, with totals and percentages:

### **Northwest Zone**
1. **Kano**:
- Muslim Population: 14,952,261
- State Population: 16,253,549
- Percentage: 92%
2. **Katsina**:
- Muslim Population: 9,207,378
- State Population: 9,300,382
- Percentage: 99%
3. **Jigawa**:
- Muslim Population: 6,839,498
- State Population: 6,979,080
- Percentage: 98%
4. **Sokoto**:
- Muslim Population: 6,132,371
- State Population: 6,163,187
- Percentage: 99.5%
5. **Zamfara**:
- Muslim Population: 5,297,081
- State Population: 5,517,793
- Percentage: 96%
6. **Kaduna**:
- Muslim Population: 4,578,357
- State Population: 8,324,285
- Percentage: 55%
7. **Kebbi**:
- Muslim Population: 4,681,256
- State Population: 6,001,610
- Percentage: 78%
8. **Sokoto**:
- Muslim Population: 6,132,371
- State Population: 6,163,187
- Percentage: 99.5%

**Total Northwest Population**: 58,539,886
**Total Muslim Population**: 51,688,201
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 88.3%

### **Northeast Zone**
1. **Borno**:
- Muslim Population: 4,656,113
- State Population: 6,651,590
- Percentage: 70%
2. **Adamawa**:
- Muslim Population: 2,094,779
- State Population: 5,236,948
- Percentage: 40%
3. **Yobe**:
- Muslim Population: 3,175,793
- State Population: 4,350,401
- Percentage: 73%
4. **Gombe**:
- Muslim Population: 2,496,671
- State Population: 4,623,462
- Percentage: 54%
5. **Taraba**:
- Muslim Population: 952,455
- State Population: 4,331,885
- Percentage: 22%

**Total Northeast Population**: 25,194,286
**Total Muslim Population**: 13,375,811
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 53.1%

### **Northcentral Zone**
1. **Niger**:
- Muslim Population: 4,032,370
- State Population: 6,720,617
- Percentage: 60%
2. **Kwara**:
- Muslim Population: 2,640,955
- State Population: 4,259,613
- Percentage: 62%
3. **FCT**:
- Muslim Population: 1,920,977
- State Population: 4,802,443
- Percentage: 40%
4. **Nasarawa**:
- Muslim Population: 1,634,507
- State Population: 3,632,239
- Percentage: 45%
5. **Plateau**:
- Muslim Population: 1,620,292
- State Population: 5,400,974
- Percentage: 30%
6. **Benue**:
- Muslim Population: 468,139
- State Population: 6,687,706
- Percentage: 7%

**Total Northcentral Population**: 36,557,326
**Total Muslim Population**: 14,995,718
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 41.0%

### **Southwest Zone**
1. **Lagos**:
- Muslim Population: 5,362,780
- State Population: 15,772,884
- Percentage: 34%
2. **Ogun**:
- Muslim Population: 2,384,752
- State Population: 6,445,275
- Percentage: 37%
3. **Osun**:
- Muslim Population: 1,780,506
- State Population: 4,237,396
- Percentage: 42%
4. **Oyo**:
- Muslim Population: 3,456,134
- State Population: 7,512,855
- Percentage: 46%
5. **Ondo**:
- Muslim Population: 765,759
- State Population: 5,469,707
- Percentage: 14%
6. **Ekiti**:
- Muslim Population: 509,726
- State Population: 3,398,177
- Percentage: 15%

**Total Southwest Population**: 42,836,294
**Total Muslim Population**: 14,259,657
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 33.3%

### **Southsouth Zone**
1. **Edo**:
- Muslim Population: 1,445,718
- State Population: 5,161,137
- Percentage: 28%
2. **Delta**:
- Muslim Population: 274,839
- State Population: 6,107,543
- Percentage: 4.5%
3. **Rivers**:
- Muslim Population: 347,278
- State Population: 7,234,973
- Percentage: 4.8%
4. **Cross River**:
- Muslim Population: 16,700
- State Population: 4,175,020
- Percentage: 0.4%
5. **Akwa Ibom**:
- Muslim Population: 46,245
- State Population: 5,780,581
- Percentage: 0.8%
6. **Bayelsa**:
- Muslim Population: 23,947
- State Population: 2,394,725
- Percentage: 1%

**Total Southsouth Population**: 30,853,979
**Total Muslim Population**: 2,154,727
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 7.0%

### **Southeast Zone**
1. **Enugu**:
- Muslim Population: 296,285
- State Population: 5,396,098
- Percentage: 5.5%
2. **Abia**:
- Muslim Population: 145,258
- State Population: 4,841,943
- Percentage: 3%
3. **Anambra**:
- Muslim Population: 132,498
- State Population: 5,299,910
- Percentage: 2.5%
4. **Ebonyi**:
- Muslim Population: 60,107
- State Population: 4,007,155
- Percentage: 1.5%
5. **Imo**:
- Muslim Population: 54,610
- State Population: 6,067,722
- Percentage: 0.9%

**Total Southeast Population**: 25,612,828
**Total Muslim Population**: 688,758
**Percentage of Muslim Population**: 2.7%

### **Summary of Total Figures**
- **Total Muslim Population in North**: 97,162,872
- **Total Muslim Population in South**: 16,402,142

These are the figures.
The total percentage is 44.3%

ggood:
Is it by residence or indigenous people ?

It's by residence questions weren't asked on cultural background.

I presume your research question was if anyone was Christian or Muslim. Yes there and are traditionalists but a lot of them would probably also identify with either of these religions.

Provisioning equally for traditionalists from both religions then we can hold that static and assume the correctness of your research. Depending on your sampling distribution this looks close to reality.

Where there could be problem is the population estimates for each state as metropolitan Lagos will be well beyond 15m, I believe its either Lagos is underestimated or adjoining state of Ogun is grossly under estimated. I think metropolitan Lagos cannot be less that 25million so if you are counting it has to be counted for Lagos and Ogun.

I also believe the metropolitan population of the FCT is higher which may have impact on Nasarawa and Niger. However, relatively this your research should be published.

mandarin:
I presume your research question was if anyone was Christian or Muslim. Yes there and are traditionalists but a lot of them would probably also identify with either of these religions.

Provisioning equally for traditionalists from both religions then we can hold that static and assume the correctness of your research. Depending on your sampling distribution this looks close to reality.

Where there could be problem is the population estimates for each state as metropolitan Lagos will be well beyond 15m, I believe its either Lagos is underestimated or adjoining state of Ogun is grossly under estimated. I think metropolitan Lagos cannot be less that 25million so if you are counting it has to be counted for Lagos and Ogun.

I also believe the metropolitan population of the FCT is higher which may have impact on Nasarawa and Niger. However, relatively this your research should be published.

You may also be over estimating Lagos and Ogun based on your assertion since your opinion is not based on official census data yet. During census, many people resident in Lagos now, will surely migrate back to Ogun, Oyo and others while some will also come to Lagos. Best thing is what he did by working with 2023 that is close to official census data instead of being based on assumptions like you are suggesting. To me, he did the right thing in that regard to stick to official census data at percentage increase for 2023/24

I do not have any source data but most global organizations estimated metropolitan Lagos to be that much. What I said was those people will either be resident in Lagos or in adjacent state of Ogun. The same with FCT.

Did you conduct a census ?