₦airaland Forum

senatordave1:
Gej pulled a huge crowd in Kano in 2015,what was the end result? Atiku pulled a huge crowd in Kano in 2019 and most core northern states so what was the end? Most of these crowds are rented.but sometimes they also speak to a party or candidate's popularity or strength. For me,I am not using crowd to measure the indices in Edo.

Obiedun:
fear dey catch you small small.

rolams:
We are saying the same thing.

Josilver:
How on earth do people come out to support APC in the open despite all the hardship they are going through in the past 9yrs and the pro max in the past 1hr.

Bobloco:
I fear the monumental calamity that will befall them if APC snatch the state.

Obiedun:
You dey too much but APC go still win

Bobloco:
The worst thing that can happen to the good people of Edo state is for them to allow APC to get close of the osadebey government house. It will be a catastrophe. A tragedy of unimaginable proportion

senatordave1:
The APC deputy guber candidate Hon Denco is from here...pdp has no foothold here and Asue will be humiliated

Killermamba:
denco might be from there, but APC has been rejected in that LG, my village in that LG has the highest voters believe me, the people you see there came to collect their cut

senatordave1:
Pdp has never won Ovia apart from 2020 so I wonder how they will do it now that Omosede has left..You should have said Akpata not Asue

brunxy:
Very correct. I am telling you that the top APC members that made denco win in Ovia are currently in PDP. They moved with Obaseki. Denco was nothing in Ovia until Oshoimhole gave him the Ovia APC structure after he donated huge money to his second term election bid. Many couldn't do anything then because they didn't have the power to fight a sitting governor. So following obaseki to PDP was their way of getting their relevance and power back. Bros I know this people very closely. Infact I have been to denco's house at ugbor on several occasions and celebrations during the era. Take it to the bank that the people that matters in Ovia politics are now in PDP. Denco winning re-election to the house of rep was a no-brainer because nobody in Ovia would have wanted omosede after her abysmal performance the first time.

senatordave1:
But Denco still won again in 2023 na despite stiff opposition from even LP without those guys you mentioned. In ovia south,the only strong pdp guys there is Hon destiny Enabulele and Ethan Uzamere while in Ovia north East only senator Uzamere is left.. Enabulele even won the assembly via rigging. Akpata is also from Ovia so I think many of those pdp guys will vote him reducing pdp guys. Denco is working round the clock to deliver Ovia,he has donated several transformers,sunk boreholes,renovated schools and hospitals etc. I think he will deliver narrowly

brunxy:
Destiny is not as strong as you think. Infact denco handpicked him to become Ovia South West Local Government chairman when he was controlling the APC structure in Ovia. Infact i think they are cousins or so. Ethan the commissioner of road and bridges is riding on his father's political goodwill and power in Ovia. Yes, denco won the 2023 election, but he smartly rigged it against the LP candidate. The political powers that by in Ovia supported it because he is believed to be better than the next close candidate i.e omosede. Ovia people thinks alike because of the close relationship and ties between the various communities in the area, so the Obidient movement didn't hold sway there like it did in the more metropolitan LGA like Oredo, Egor and ikpoba okha where you have people from different ethnic groups in Nigeria living and voting. Ask yourself why did Monday okpebholo win in Edo central? Because like Ovia the people there are very closely related and they were all against senator odia third term ambition. Just as oshoimhole won in Edo north because the people there respect his opinion irrespective of the very powerful Obidient movement. Politics is local, so don't use results in one locality to compare another, instead evaluate the thought process of the locals.

brunxy:
Destiny is not as strong as you think. Infact denco handpicked him to become Ovia South West Local Government chairman when he was controlling the APC structure in Ovia. Infact, I think they are cousins or so. Governor obaseki gave him the house of assembly ticket to compensate him for his loyalty, not that he had a choice though. Because as a sitting LGA chairman the governor controls him completely. Maybe things will change a little bit with the Local Government Autonomy now passed into law by the supreme court. Ethan the commissioner of road and bridges is riding on his father's political goodwill and power in Ovia and Edo state at large. Yes, denco won the 2023 election, but he smartly rigged it against the LP candidate. The political powers that by in Ovia supported it because he is believed to be better than the next close candidate i.e omosede. Ovia people thinks alike because of the close relationship and ties between the various communities in the area, so the Obidient movement didn't hold sway there like it did in the more metropolitan LGA like Oredo, Egor and ikpoba okha where you have people from different ethnic groups in Nigeria living and voting. Ask yourself why did Monday okpebholo win in Edo central? Because like Ovia the people there are very closely related and they were all against senator odia third term ambition. Just as oshoimhole won in Edo north because the people there respect his opinion irrespective of the very powerful Obidient movement. Politics is local, so don't use results in one locality to compare another, instead evaluate the thought process of the locals.

senatordave1:
Guy, you have proven to me that you know local politics well. You really know your onions unlike other pdp or anti APC people. your analysis and explanations are top notch, I am convinced though I have some questions...
Tbh, even though I give Ovia to APC because of denco,I still feel uncomfortable because of the way denco struggles to win there. In 2020, I was surprised when obaseki won there and also surprised that in last year polls,APC couldn't produce one assembly seat out of the three..my questions are these;
If denco isn't popular, why did he defeat Omosede who was an incumbent in 2019? Where did he rig because even in his Iguobazuwa,results where tight and pdp came 2nd not LP ? Why would Ovia abandon your kids Denco and Omosede to vote Asue who you don't know ? If pdp are to win, by what margin? Why not just vote Akpata your other son? Where exactly is Akpata from in Ovia? Why is Ethan uzamere representing ovia south when his dad is from Ovia north?

I just discovered Lucky Imasuen is from Ovia north which means he will be a strong factor there..the whole ovia except for the three Ijaws wards are still Bini,why make it look like they are different. Even Samson osagie sometimes plays ovia politics...How strong is Sunny Aghedo? Can you predict the voting pattern of the Other parts of Edo south..

Note: I don't think Monday was voted because of the resistance to the third term of Ordia,they could have voted LP which was the dominant party last year.i believe they voted him because of his works

brunxy:
I am enjoying this conversation with you that is while I keep replying every of your response. You are also very sound politically and with an open mind to learn and understand politics from other people's perspective. That's a rare trait only leaders posseses. The voting pattern in Ovia will favour the PDP in this upcoming gubernatorial election, and these are my reasons; Denco will win in iguobazuwa which happens to be the administrative headquarters of Ovia South West, the reason being that he is from there. But like iguobazuwa, there are other big town in Ovia e.g Usen; which to me has the highest voting population because of the polytechnic there, Udo, Iguoriakhi etc. Usen currently is a strong hold of PDP. All the top political bigwigs that call the shots in Usen decamped to the PDP with Obaseki, because they were aggrieved of how Oshoimhole empowered denco so much in the LGA, that he became the sole kingmaker. In Udo, the current secretary of the LGA is a prince of the community and he has a lot of followers and commands respect in the community. Also the iyase of Udo's body language has shown he somehow supports the PDP candidate. The recent rejuvenation of the college of education Iguoriakhi has won the heart and affection of the people towards the PDP. The current vice chairman (lady) of the LGA is an ijaw lady, and that has tilted the voting pattern of the riverine areas towards PDP. The Yoruba speaking part of Ovia that borders Ondo have a soft spot for the PDP candidate because of that fact that his mother is Yoruba. I have been there and I was surprised by how much they know and understand what is going on in Edo politics. They even gave me fresh oily river fish 😁. So, with this few points I think the PDP will win Ovia even though denco will win iguobazuwa. The reason why obaseki win is simple, he has given the political power back to the leaders that call the shots in Ovia, unlike when denco was the sole godfather then in APC. I remember his house in ugbor used to be crowded everyday because nothing happens in Ovia without his permission.

Prior to denco's victory in 2019, omosede was the worse performing rep member in the history of Ovia. The people were already tired of her but there was no one in Ovia that was powerful enough to fight her due to her father's influence there. Denco came in as a messiah, he had the backing of the governor and oshoimhole his political godfather. He also resonate's positively amongst the youth, because he was also a youth.(Very young). The fact that a son of a nobody has grown strong enough to challenge the daughter of a giant made him win the heart and sympathy of the people. I remember also working with him as an online canvasser. We painted beautiful story about him online. Met and interacted with him on various occasion. Infact he told us how he started his life, traveled to Canada and how he made is money. The entire Ovia was behind him. Omosede didn't campaign. She believed being a sitting rep member and her family's influence would win her the seat, and she lost woefully.

Why will the Ovia people abandon their children and vote Asue? firstly, the APC performance in the federal government and inflation in the country has made that party synonymous with plague. Secondly, they made a grievous mistake of the person they selected as the gubernatorial candidate. Now I understand why oshoimhole initially revolted and fought against Okpebholo being the APC gubernatorial candidate. A state as politically enlightened as Edo state, you are supposed to put your best leg forward, instead they allowed greed and personal interest to override the greater good of the party. Put party affiliation and personal interest aside, if you are asked to choose between Asue and Okpebholo in terms of who you think is more competent to govern the state who will you choose?

Akpata has no political pedigree and he is relatively unknown in Ovia until this election. The love and acceptance Peter Obi had in the 2023 general election was as a result of his pedigree and the fact that the people wanted an alternative to the buhari led APC as at then. The dynamics is completely different now. Moreover majority of edolite shares the sentiment that it's the turn of Edo central, so him being from Edo south as made him lost a huge chunk of voters that shares that sentiment. He has never shown any kind of affiliation to Ovia South West local government until this election. I guess that is why the Oba of Benin publicly told him to stop calling himself a son of the palace. Because such forced affiliation to gain political sentiment is wrong. He claims he his partly from Usen.

Well your opinion about how Monday was voted to the Senate is valid based on your perspective, and I will respect that. Between Clifford ordia, okpebholo and the LP candidate, Monday resonated more with the people being that he has been a grassroot person in the senatorial district right from the time of anenih. So it was easy to choose him as the next alternative, based on my opinion.

senatordave1:
When you mentioned Udo and Iyase,I remembered the Ihaza N'Udo chief Emma Iyase APC chair of Egor and the Iyasele of Uselu... I have learnt to be open minded and listen to several opposing views because I see arguments and debates as a way to learn and gain more knowledge except it goes sideways... From your analysis, I can't argue with you about ovia SE because your reasons are convincing. You are on ground and Ovia axis is that part of Edo south that I know the least but I feel it will be tight. If APC loses,Denco will want to make it as narrow as possible... The dynamics and challenges Denco is facing in Ovia is what Asue is facing in Esan SE his LGA where APC might win.

What you said about Okpebholo's limited intellectual is true. Edo is an enlightened state and a serious party must put its best forward it's best product but Oshiomhole who opposed okpebholo was fronting Denco who isn't from Esan and Denco is not even the best. APC best products in the race were from outside Edo central like Dr Umakhai,Clem Agba,Lucky Imasuen.. Prof Osunbor though from Esan is politically dead,he can't even deliver his polling unit and he is old. Rtd col Imuse is a no no. Good products like Hon prince Okojie and Gen Esakhaigbe refused to contest. The only option was Okpebholo and the party united behind him to challenge Oshiomhole candidate... It was either him or Denco...

Asue might on face value appear educated,polish,exposed and sound but that's all.tbh,he does not rate Edo,he sees himself more as a Lagos man than an Edolite.upoj all his money,he can't boast of any reasonable project in Edo. The man is elitist even worse than obaseki...I learnt he's a chronic alcoholic.. his antecedents at sterling and Nigerian breweries is abysmal but let's not go into that... governance is beyond fancy CV and nice grammar but determination to succeed...

APC is failing at the national level but you will agree that Obaseki too has failed...if you check Edo polls,it is hardly affected by national policies but by local factors...the politicians,performance,campaign style,candidates record,local dynamics will mostly determine the winner. If you insist that the failings of Tinubu will affect polling heavily,then you can as well say that APC will lose all lgas in Edo but you know it is untrue. Even if they lose,they will still retain Edo north. Why ? Because some popular APC politicians are from there who keep on empowering their people and these has extended to the central and south something obaseki and Asue largely failed to do.

You haven't given your analysis about the voting pattern of the other 5 lgas but from what I am seeing, APC will surely take Orhiomnwon.. the APC coordinator Hon Aisowieren is doing so much not to talk of Pastor,Odubu and Ikhariale.pdp men like Nehikare and Bright Iyamu are quiet... Uhumnwonde is another place APC will likely take because of the defection of Charlie Tapper.. lately, Hon Osaze imasogie,Hon billy osawaru,Prof David Osifoh and Hon Washington Osifoh revved up campaigns and i haven't seen anything from pdp. This is Obaseki's ancestral LGA yet he neglects them only to remember them during elections.this should ordinarily be a straight loss. Egor looks open but pdp has the advantage. Pdp should easily take Oredo and Ikpoba...

Generally the plan of APC is to keep it tight in Edo south esp Benin,Get a win or narrow lose in central and end the battle in the north while pdp plan is to get bloc votes in Benin like 2020 and draw out APC in the other areas..But from Obaseki tone and language,he has conceded Edo north esp Etsako which is dangerous because Benin is cosmopolitan and Lp has changed the dynamics. It can swing anywhere while the north is rigid. I might be wrong but it looks like the elites prefer pdp and partially Lp while the masses or commoners prefer Apc

brunxy:
I totally agree with your points on the voting dynamics in the other Local Government. Your last sentence is what I don't agree with, I think the reverse is the case. You can start by carrying out an independent survey in your area because I do that almost everyday. When I am in a public transport, bars and gatherings, I try to sample the opinions of the common edolite I come across on a daily basis. What I can say is the elites favours the APC, for reasons best known to them. Like you just listed above, all the top political "elites" in Edo supports APC. From my observations the commoners are in support of PDP.

Obaseki is not all bad as people see it. When you want to rate a government there are indices you use. Like road Infrastructure, human capital development, civil service reforms, schools infrastructure, attracting businesses to the state there by increasing IGR etc.

So, I am often time confused to hear people people say obaseki performed poorly. Most time I like to ask in what area of governance?

I will like to do a comparative analysis between Obaseki and Oshoimhole on these few indices stated above;

Road Infrastructure --- Oshoimhole wins this any day. In terms of quality and kilometers of road constructed. I can talk about this with my full chest. Because as a civil engineer who still works as a consultant to the government, I know more about this.

Human capital development ----- Obaseki wins this by a large margin. I am so happy when I see friends and relatives who works in Edo public and civil service now. The kind of training and retraining they get from time to time, sponsored by the government is impressive. The ease of work and improved ways of service delivery in Edo state government is second to known. Some civil service workers who were still operating in the analogue ways they have been used to are now embracing new IT driven ways of service delivery. I met an old friend from university who works with the IT department involved in the laying of fibre cables around Benin and the report I got from him was more than impressive.

Civil service reforms ---- Obaseki wins by a large margin here. Edo state public and civil service is to me among the wonders of our new Edo. I remember working with the state ministry of works in 2010 as an IT student compare to what I see now when I go there for visiting or work related matters. The pay is excellent compare to other states and previous government in Edo. Salaries comes in as at when due, pensioners get all their gratuities and benefits up to date unlike the many months that previous government used to owe them, promotion is regular and comes as at when due etc. Visit perm house in sapele road to see for yourself. It's not just about the buildings, renovated and new, but about the efficiency of the system. Going to receipt monthly vouchers for work done used to be the most difficult thing to do. I just smile these days when I visit treasury house at the secretariat to transact my business.

School infrastructure ---- I will rate this 50/50. In terms of primary and secondary school infrastructural development, Oshoimhole did marvelously well. He brought the "Red Roof" mantra to Edo lexicon. He renovated and built new blocks of classroom across the 3 senatorial district. For post secondary and tertiary institution I will give it to Obaseki. College of education Iguoriakhi that used to look like a poultry can now rival similar institution anywhere in the world in terms of infrastructures. Edo state school of nursing that used to be a relics is now up to the standard needed for such important institution. College of Education abudu and Igueben,etc.

Attracting businesses to Edo state and improved IGR--- Obaseki is mile ahead of oshoimhole, that's even if Oshoimhole did anything in that area. Edo is gradually becoming an industrial hub, with big industrial that we used to only see in Lagos gradually finding their abode in Edo state. In terms of IGR, I won't say much about this because top APC leader have gone on national television to commend the state government for the improved IGR. Funnily, they didn't achieve this by increasing taxation, because my mum is a trader at the Oba market and she has told me they don't pay multiple taxes as they used to. They achieved this by blocking loopholes through which the taxes used to go to private individuals pockets. A state where someone like kabaka with no known business address was celebrating 1billion which was almost 50 percent of the state monthly IGR. I am not surprised with the numbers of career politicians with no known business address hovering around the APC candidate, they see it as business like it used to be if he wins. I have friends who also have businesses in and around the state and their report is impressive though there are areas that needs improvement. Government is continuum and no one man can fix everything in 8yrs. But having a solid foundation and blueprint for every successive government to follow is the way forward. And this is why Lagos is getting it right.

I can go on for days on this comparative analysis of both government. If I am to rate each government 10pts for performance on each indices, then obaseki is a far better governor in my opinion.

senatordave1:
You are correct that Obaseki has done well in human development and civil reforms like digitalizing the state, training and retraining. He has also done well in workers welfare and salary increase and IGR increase but these achievements are most times overlooked and written off because they are not flamboyant,shouty or grand.people prefer physical achievements in infrastructure,regular payment of salary,massive recruitment like Wike did... No matter what reforms he did,when you see so many bad roads, that is a negative mark.
I heard AAU staffs are owed arrears. He also reduced the subventions of tertiary institutions and Increased school fees at this hard period which will always count against him... I have seen several dilapidated schools, it is an eyesore... I have seen protests and murmurings from business people and market women about multiple taxation. Shuaibu used to head one of those tax forces.
Insecurity esp cultism and youth restive ness is another serious issue. This is caused by unemployment. Obaseki didn't employ much and the companies he attracted employ only few Edolites. Oshiomhole found a way to engage all these bad eggs into Agberoism,Nurtw,Rtean like in Lagos while Obaseki discarded them without rehabilitation thereby increasing the insecurity situation. What is the use of appointing SSAs in all the wards for political patronage for just 4-8 years? Why not empower them permanently with govt jobs,contracts,skill acquisition or even grants. as a governor,you need to manage both the good and bad eggs. You don't always discard things you don't like Imagine someone like Kabaka being idle na.I see Asue as another divisive fellow while Okpebholo is a good manager of people which is a leadership quality.

Obaseki did well in sports also but failed to build on tourism. He neglected the Okpekpe race that Oshiomhole started. Oshiomhole did well in tackling flooding but obaseki regressed. edolites dread heavy rainfall.
Obaseki has no regards for the traditional institutions.imagine trying to whittle down the powers of the Oba. This is another reason why some people prefer a leader that is grounded in traditional affairs..
Charity starts from home.what has Obaseki done for his native Uhumnwonde? Oshiomhole singlehandedly urbanized his Iyamho and most parts of Etsako.Anenih did so much for Esan..obaseki neglected his area like Gej.
Abroad, Obaseki might rank as a good leader but not here...in Nigeria,our problems are peculiar. We are interested in infrastructure, salary, palliatives and when you fail here,you fail.


About the elites and masses comparison, I think you are limiting yourself to Benin axis. I have toured the rural areas of the north and central and the uneducated masses prefer Okpebholo... What APC are doing is that they are campaigning,consulting and empowering more people in the rural areas than pdp. Some areas might prefer pdp but because pdp are unable to come and campaign there,consult them or even attend to their needs like APC,they reluctantly switch sides. For instance, Okhoro axis of Egor has a faulty transformer and the APC candidate sent someone to provide one transformer and repair the other,they now pledged their votes. Same thing Okhokhuo, Ovia NE..the most touching is that kidney failure patient in AAU that Okpebholo and Akpata donated to while Asue refused to