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This monograph describes how a failed state in 2030 may impact the United States and the global economy. It also identifies critical capabilities and technologies the US Air Force should have to respond to a failed state, especially one of vital interest to the United States and one on the cusp of a civil war. Nation-states can fail for a myriad of reasons: cultural or religious conflict, a broken social contract between the
government and the governed, a catastrophic natural disaster, financial collapse, war, and so forth.

Nigeria with its vast oil wealth, large population, and strategic position in Africa and the global economy can, if it fails disproportionately affect the United States and the global economy. Nigeria, like many nations in Africa, gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1960. It is the most populous country in Africa and will have nearly 250 million people by 2030. In its relatively short modern history, Nigeria has
survived five military coups as well as separatist and religious wars, is mired in an active armed insurgency, is suffering from disastrous ecological conditions in its Niger Delta region, and is fighting one of the modern world?s worst legacies of political and economic corruption. A nation with more than 350 ethnic groups, 250 languages, and three distinct religious affiliations? Christian, Islamic, and animist Nigeria?s

135 million people today are anything but homogenous. Of Nigeria's 36 states, 12 are Islamic and under the strong and growing influence of the Sokoto caliphate. While religious and ethnic violence is commonplace, the federal government has managed to strike a tenuous balance among the disparate religious and ethnic factions. With such demographics, Nigeria's failure would be akin to a piece of fine china dropped on a tile floor. it would simply shatter into potentially hundreds of pieces. Poor investment in the nation's critical infrastructure and underinvestment in health care, education, science, and technology are all leading to a brain drain. in which Nigeria's most talented and educated citizens are leaving the country. This will leave a future Nigeria even poorer. Nascent attempts to address electoral and governmental corruption are meeting with some success and hold promise for the future.

Recent meetings between the president and insurgent groups may, over time, help resolve some of Nigeria's most intractable and dangerous internal conflicts. The population's disappointment in its government has not appreciably shaken its faith in democracy. Elections are and will likely remain an important part of Nigerian life as they, despite the odds, provide the people hope that they can make a difference in Nigeria
struggles to succeed.

Nigeria becoming a failed state is not a foregone conclusion. However, should the oil-rich state of Nigeria, a nation likely to provide up to 25 or 25 percent of US light, sweet crude oil imports by 2030, fail, then the effect on the United States and the world economy would be too great to ignore. The threat that failure poses to a quarter billion Nigerians in terms of livelihood, security, and general way of life could quickly spread and cause a humanitarian disaster of previously unimagined proportions. Regardless of the extent of the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the wake of failure, the hard work to repair the damage could take two generations to make Nigeria viable again.

This failed-state scenario is one of four that comprised the Blue Horizons study in 2008. It explores the implications of what it would mean for the US Air Force to respond to a failed state in 2030, one with a large population that has resources vital to the Western world. The capabilities necessary to detect threats, characterize the environment, rapidly deploy and protect responders, and sustain operations long enough to create conditions for the indigenous people to resurrect their fallen nation are all issues that need to be explored. From these, this monograph helps the study team understand what types of technologies the US Air Force should pursue to enable it to lead and prevail against the challenges and surprises posed by future failed states.
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA543719

Well expreed

Its a goddamn 158 page report, lol.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA543719.pdf

budaatum:
Its a goddamn 158 page report, lol.
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA543719.pdf

Yes it is! But a good read for anyone planning on investing in Nigeria anytime soon. Given the state of the Nation, it might be a good idea to investigate and ensure one understands the direction in which the country may potentially be headed. Of course, even if Nigeria were to in fact collapse today, it won't be the first or last failed State in Africa that we have today. There are several others out there in Africa we can take examples from.

Mschew

Ask am last year who she been want make Nigerians vote as president she talk say na sowore.

Ask am the same question today she say nobody been dey good for the whole ballot 🗳

Yeye hypocritical op yen-yen-yen her own na to siddon for ground dey open mouth WAAAA dey yarn dust upandan

A classic narcissist imperial monologue. No be today. After all, CIA claimed Nigeria would have disintegrated by 2015, but God has shamed them, Nigeria is still standing despite all our challenges.
There is no Country in the world today that is not challenged.

Kobojunkie:
Yes it is! But a good read for anyone planning on investing in Nigeria anytime soon. Given the state of the Nation, it might be a good idea to investigate and ensure one understands the direction in which the country may potentially be headed. Of course, even if Nigeria were to in fact collapse today, it won't be the first or last failed State in Africa that we have today. There are several others out there in Africa we can take examples from.

You guys keep digging up bad reviews on Nigeria. I thought since you've Japa, you should leave those of us here in peace, yet the only oxygen that you guys have is bad wishes for this country in the desperation to justify why you Japa. Now you open a thread purposely to discourage investment in Nigeria, loading haters of Nigeria ammunition to continue to denigrate us and cast aspersions and venoms that you supplied towards us.
Since you have left, stay where you have gone and leave Nigeria alone.
I have found out, most of the people that speak ills about Nigeria and wish the country bad are wicked Nigerians in diaspora and I think you are among otherwise you won't gleefully open this evil thread on Nigeria.

America still believe that Nigeria can be redeemed

Rutherford2019:
America still believe that Nigeria can be redeemed

Well, it can and should be redeemed. The only problem is the only ones who can are Nigerians and not many of them are stepping up to say enough is enough.

Lifestone:
You guys keep digging up bad reviews on Nigeria. I thought since you've Japa, you should leave those of us here in peace, yet the only oxygen that you guys have is bad wishes for this country in the desperation to justify why you Japa. Now you open a thread purposely to discourage investment in Nigeria, loading haters of Nigeria ammunition to continue to denigrate us and cast aspersions and venoms that you supplied towards us.
Since you have left, stay where you have gone and leave Nigeria alone.
I have found out, most of the people that speak ills about Nigeria and wish the country bad are wicked Nigerians in diaspora and I think you are among otherwise you won't gleefully open this evil thread on Nigeria.

Well said....a lot of the negativity on Nigeria is from some diaspora. Kobojunkie is typical of a frustrated and failed individual whose only purpose is to denigrate nigeria.

Rutherford2019:
America still believe that Nigeria can be redeemed

Only Nigerians can redeem Nigeria. America can believe all it wants but if the Nigerian people do not believe in Nigeria and do not do what it takes to keep it together, it will fall apart and in a way as bad— many even more terrible— as is described in that report.

Kobojunkie:
Only Nigerians can redeem Nigeria. America can believe all it wants but if the Nigerian people do not believe in Nigeria and do not do what it takes to keep it together, it will fall apart and in a way as bad— many even more terrible— as is described in that report.

But YOU don’t believe in Nigeria.

You should look in the mirror before pontificating.

Madam Satan pretending to care about Nigeria.

Have you actually posted a single positive or inspirational topic about Nigeria in your entire existence?

Of course not.

Disgusting person.

When the law of nature eventually sets in, Nigeria will be divided and shared among nations of interest e.g US, UK, China, Russia e.t.c. Once a slave, always a slave!

Kobojunkie:
[/b]
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA543719

This write-up is a regurgitated blend of tired tropes, overgeneralizations, and shallow analysis that underscores a chronic lack of intellectual rigor. The author demonstrates an almost comical failure to engage with the complexity of Nigeria’s geopolitical, economic, and cultural realities, reducing them to a simplistic failed-state narrative designed to fuel alarmist fantasies rather than offer constructive solutions.

1. Recycled Doom-Mongering: The author dusts off the same cliché-laden scenarios of “failed states” without offering fresh insights or actionable strategies. Predicting Nigeria’s collapse based on dated stereotypes of corruption, ethnic strife, and brain drain is lazy at best and disingenuous at worst.
2. Absurd Simplifications: The portrayal of Nigeria as “shattering like fine china” is not only melodramatic but betrays a lack of understanding of the resilience within Nigeria’s socio-political framework. While challenges exist, such oversimplification erases the strides Nigeria has made in governance, democracy, and infrastructure.
3. Shallow Analysis of Oil Dependency: Claiming the U.S. would face unparalleled economic catastrophe due to Nigeria’s potential failure ignores the diversification of energy sources and the declining importance of oil imports in a post-carbon economy. This fixation reeks of 20th-century thinking.
4. Misguided Focus on Military Solutions: The emphasis on U.S. Air Force capabilities as a response to a hypothetical failed state is tone-deaf. Instead of exploring diplomatic, developmental, and multilateral strategies to strengthen Nigeria, the monograph fantasizes about interventionism—an approach proven time and again to exacerbate instability.
5. Hollow Prognostication: Suggesting that repairing Nigeria would take two generations shows a defeatist mindset. The author writes off the efforts of Nigerians themselves, whose resilience and innovation have historically overcome far greater challenges.

This write-up is an intellectual black hole: devoid of originality, fraught with outdated Cold War-esque interventionist fantasies, and blind to the dynamic realities of modern Nigeria. It’s not just unhelpful—it’s actively harmful, perpetuating stereotypes while offering no substantive pathways for collaboration or growth. The author would be better served sitting in a library for a few months before attempting such a monograph again.