₦airaland Forum

Do you remember these threads last year?

https://www.nairaland.com/8175124/northern-apc-cpc-anpp-pull

https://www.nairaland.com/8177366/re-northern-apc-pulling-out

It's happening in phases.
Phase 1: Some disgruntled Northern has-beens pull out

Phase 2: Some lawmakers forment trouble or fall out with Akpabio

Phase 3: Northern lawmakers allege discrimination & pullout close to 2027 elections leaving APC as minority

Phase 4: Northern APC governors back an opposition Presidential candidate just before elections

Phase 5: Checkmate

Gameplan:
Disrupt Tinubu's incumbent votes in the North with the likes of Atiku, Kwankwaso, El Rufai.

If Tinubu can bleed votes in the North then he cannot win 2027 because Peter Obi will blitz him in the South even as incumbent. We all know it was rigging Rivers that secured Tinubu's 2023 win. Tinubu lost his Lagos and he will lose it again in 2027 thanks to Sanwo-Olu and the many disgruntled politicians & cheated indigenes in Lagos.

*Tinubu already lost SE since yesterday.
*SS will be majority Peter Obi again
*SW may be Tinubu overall but margins will be negligible
*Middle Belt might be same as SW or Peter Obi nicks it again
*Core North will be 25% apiece between Tinubu, Atiku, Kwankwaso & El Rufai. Nothing for Obi here.

Probable result:
*Tinubu will win few states, maybe SW. 25-30% total.
*Obi will win SE, SS & maybe SW. 30% total.
*Atiku will win few states, no clear region. 25% total.
*Kwankwaso & El Rufai. No clear wins. Maybe 10% apiece.


With these, expect Tinubu to betray Wike for Fubara by 2026. Wike will get aggressive with his impeachment threat but it won't be a done deal. Fubara will strike a Wike-type deal with Tinubu's main opposition to secure his 2nd term and ensure his future protection against FG might if re-elected.

Tinubu will have no choice but to betray Wike for fear of losing Rivers. Wike will break the law in his desperation to stay relevant. Fubara will end up doing what Wike did - sell Rivers to Tinubu or whoever has the highest chance of winning presidential elections at the last minute.

A similar situation for Kogi. If Tinubu allows Bello to enjoy his loot, he will sell Kogi votes to Tinubu but if EFCC deprives him of his bounty then Bello together with Dino & Natasha will ensure Kogi goes to Tinubu's opposition to ensure a sweet 2nd term for all.

This means that Osun state guber elections will be war. If Oyetola wins, Tinubu secures the edge in SW otherwise Adeleke & Aregbesola will sell out SW to his opposition. Osun is vital for Tinubu's 2027. Blood will flow.

Blood will flow in Kaduna in 2027.
Rivers & Edo too.

The ex-heads of state like Buhari, IBB (if alive), OBJ will offer background support to whoever they have decided to pitch against Tinubu up North.

I don't have energy for arguments.
Just quote me when this happens.
Good day.

i don't know why people always say that Rivers vote gave Tinubu the presidency, are you guys living in the bubble or what? how much was Rivers vote to Tinubu's victory, just negligible. Even if Tinubu never got a single vote from Rivers, he would have still won hands down. Rivers Vote that is not up to 300k vote made Tinubu President right? una dey dream. Tinubu won with a margin of over 2million votes. so how does a vote less than 300k made him president? una too like joke

Pierocash:
i don't know why people always say that Rivers vote gave Tinubu the presidency, are you guys living in the bubble or what? how much was Rivers vote to Tinubu's victory, just negligible. Even if Tinubu never got a single vote from Rivers, he would have still won has down. Rivers Vote that is not up to 300k vote made Tinubu President right? una dey dream. Tinubu won with a margin of over 2million votes. so how does a vote less than 300k made president? una too like joke

just leave them to keep doing useless analysis till they lose out finally

Nice read

My own be say make Tinubu finish his 8yrs... Same way we endured a Northerner for 8yrs.. now is the turn of Northerners to endure

TinubuCriminal:
Do you remember these threads last year?

https://www.nairaland.com/8175124/northern-apc-cpc-anpp-pull

https://www.nairaland.com/8177366/re-northern-apc-pulling-out








I don't have energy for arguments.
Just quote me when this happens.
Good day.

You're very smart. I like your analysis and they are very practical and mostly reflect what would happen, save for a few tweaks. Elrufai would not contest for the Presidency in 2027. If Tinubu loses the North as it's bound to happen, Atiku will have the upper hand. Contrary to what most people think, Obi contesting separately on his own will do more damage to Tinubu than if he joins the "coalition". It will kill any talks of "it's the turn of the South" because an alternative will exist in Obi.

Kudos!

Tilumbu is holding the balls of inec and judiciary in his hand

Know that voters do not determine elections wins, the people that count votes do.

Tilumbu would rather loss his life than sit and watch presidency taken from him

Bump
It's happening

Buhari will officially reject Tinubu today

This one na pure wishful thinking.

Akpabio and Tinubu are 2 of the most formidable political gladiators in the game.