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Key opposition leaders yesterday formally announced a coalition aimed at unseating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027, but several unanswered questions linger. Observers are asking how leaders with differing ideologies, ambitions, and party affiliations can work together to fulfil their promise to Nigerians.

Historically, Nigerian electoral victories have often resulted from marriages of convenience rather than ideological unity. Political alliances and coalitions are typically formed out of necessity, driven by the need to secure power. While some have succeeded, many have collapsed due to internal disagreements and power struggles.

What do past coalitions look like?
In the First Republic, the United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) was formed in 1964 as a coalition of opposition parties, including the Action Group (AG) and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC), to challenge the ruling Northern People’s Congress (NPC). The alliance ultimately failed to achieve its goal.
However, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and the Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) formed a strategic alliance in 1979, allowing the NPN to secure a parliamentary majority and form a government.
In 2003, opposition parties such as the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) attempted alliances against the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) but failed to consolidate power.
The most successful coalition in Nigeria’s political history emerged in 2013 when the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and the new PDP (nPDP) merged to form the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This coalition defeated the PDP in the 2015 presidential election, marking the first time an opposition party unseated an incumbent government.
Since then, several efforts have been made to replicate that feat, but all have fallen short.

Opposition announces alliance to sack Tinubu
Thus, when former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on Thursday announced the formation of a coalition of opposition political parties aimed at removing President Tinubu in 2027, the move was met with scepticism.
Atiku made the declaration during a press conference in Abuja, attended by several opposition politicians, including former APC members who had since defected.

Among those present were Peter Obi’s representative, Dr Yunusa Tanko; Babachir David Lawal; Nasir El-Rufai; Segun Sowunmi; Soni Monidafe; Dr Salihu Lukman; Chief Peter Ameh; and Adamu Maina Waziri.
The event was initially convened to address President Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State over the political crisis there. However, when asked whether the emerging coalition would serve as the main opposition against the APC in the 2027 elections, Atiku confirmed: “Yes, this is the birth of the coalition of opposition ahead of 2027.”
His statement signalled a significant political realignment, with opposition forces preparing to challenge the APC’s dominance.

President can’t be distracted by sore losers – Onanuga
Reacting, presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga said the president cannot be distracted by “the so-called coalition of politicians” he described as “sore losers”.
In a chat with Daily Trust, Onanuga said “President Tinubu is focused on governance to build a prosperous country. He is on the way to achieving this. Two months to his midterm, he has many solid achievements to showcase. Intractable problems are being tackled headlong.
“He cannot be distracted by the so-called coalition of politicians. They are not politicians after the public Good. It’s all about their self-interest.”
“They are disgruntled. They are a frustrated lot. The leaders are sore losers. The coalition is an amalgam of Tinubu haters. Their agenda is to stop Tinubu,” he added.

On his part, APC spokesman Felix Morka could not be reached for comment. However, sources within the party indicated that an official response would be issued today (Friday).

But in an earlier reaction to Atiku’s call for opposition leaders to unite in order to “save” Nigeria’s democracy, Morka had dismissed Atiku’s assertions as “laughable” and questioned his credibility.
Morka also criticised Atiku, alongside other opposition figures like Obi and El-Rufai, for suggesting that the ruling party was responsible for the internal challenges facing opposition groups.

Atiku, El-Rufai or Obi: Who leads the coalition?
Since losing the 2023 presidential election to Tinubu by about two million votes, Atiku has been at the forefront of calls for an opposition coalition, even alleging that the ruling party aims to establish a one-party state.

An analysis of the 2023 election results suggests that if Atiku and Obi had combined their votes, they could have defeated Tinubu. Tinubu won with 8,794,726 votes (36.61%), while Atiku secured 6,984,520 (29.07%) and Obi got 6,101,533 (25.40%).
In 2019, when Atiku and Obi were on the PDP ticket together, they secured 11,262,978 votes against then incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari’s 15,191,847.

While Atiku has pushed for a coalition since 2023, it was the recent defection of former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) that reignited discussions. After his defection, El-Rufai called on opposition leaders, including Atiku, Obi, and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), to unite. Kwankwaso finished a distant fourth in the 2023 elections with 1,496,671 votes.

However, Atiku’s ally, former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido, dismissed the idea, raising questions about Atiku’s stance.
Obi, meanwhile, had repeatedly stated that he was uninterested in a coalition solely focused on defeating the ruling party. However, his recent visit to Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed, where they pledged to collaborate ahead of 2027, altered the political landscape.

With Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai now in the coalition, observers are asking: Who will take the lead?
“With the three of them seen as leaders in their own rights, the question is who the leader is. The main reason they are forming a coalition is that they recognise the need to unite to effectively challenge the APC,” said political analyst, Dr Aminu Hayatu.
However, he noted that while the coalition may not necessarily change government policies, “the opposition’s presence might deter certain government actions due to fear of criticism.”

How this coalition differs
Unlike past mergers, where political parties dissolved into a single entity, Atiku and his allies currently favour a coalition model. This approach allows them to remain in their respective parties while working towards a shared objective; unseating Tinubu in 2027.
Professor Kamilu Sani Fage, a renowned political analyst, explained that mergers require parties to collapse into one, whereas coalitions allow individuals or parties to collaborate without dismantling their structures.
He noted that the key players likely recognised the challenges of a merger, given the current state of their parties. For Atiku and Obi, their parties (PDP and LP) seem to be at odds with their ambitions. Meanwhile, El-Rufai’s new party, the SDP, has ruled out any merger, insisting it will remain a third force in the 2027 elections.

Approach different from how we defeated Jonathan
A prominent member of the 8th Senate, who was part of the coalition that ousted former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, said that the recent realignments in the political space might not work.
The source, who does not want to be quoted, said: “The first problem is that they are talking about forming a coalition and not a merger to form a strong political party. This is not what happened ahead of 2015 general election and based on my understanding, this will not work.
“Secondly, for you to remove a sitting president like Tinubu, you need to have a strong leadership, just like what happened in 2013 ahead of the merger when despite our differences we all agreed from the onset that Muhammadu Buhari will be the leader and our potential presidential candidate.
“We all worked along that direction and in the movement, we have strong people including serving governors, technocrats and other people with serious influence in the society,” the source said.
He said after projecting themselves as a single force with firm control over their political parties, they approached the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the registration of APC.
“We achieved all these ahead of the 2015 election and during the primaries, Buhari emerged as the candidate of the APC and we collectively mobilised resources and confronted Jonathan and we defeated him with the massive support from Nigerians.
“Unfortunately, the people that are working to have a coalition now are racing against time, they mostly have personal ambitions. They are also coming on the back of their various political parties. I wonder how this will work in their favour. It is very unlikely to defeat Tinubu with this arrangement.
“Look at how he worked his way ahead of 2023 to get the APC ticket. Now that he has access to enormous resources and the instrument of authority, it will take more than a coalition to defeat him,” he said.

Can the coalition succeed?
But Dr Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, believes opposition leaders do not necessarily need to control a political party to succeed.
He, however, admitted that the coalition is “faced with great odds because they are dealing with a president who is in full control of the major opposition parties.
“But the secret for success is two-fold. First, they need to respond to the aspirations of needs in choosing a presidential candidate, not to impose themselves. Two, they need to begin to quickly respond and mobilise Nigerians in a showdown with the ruling party and its supporting opposition parties,” he said.
Professor Fage added that the coalition must address a fundamental question; who will be the presidential candidate, and how will that decision be made? He warned that if key figures fail to set aside personal ambitions for the collective goal, the coalition could collapse before 2027.
Dr Hayatu further pointed out that power-sharing within the coalition could be a major hurdle.
“If they remain in their respective parties while working together for elections, how will they decide on candidacy? Each of these leaders has presidential ambitions. Who will step aside for the other? Will they distribute positions in advance, or will they repeat the 2023 scenario where none was willing to step down?” he asked.

The APC’s likely countermeasures
Both Fage and Hayatu believe the ruling APC will intensify efforts to undermine the opposition including further penetration of the opposition parties.
“The party in power has historically used government resources to maintain electoral dominance. We are already seeing this with strategic political appointments. Kano, for example, has seen a wave of federal appointments aimed at strengthening the APC’s grip on the state,” Hayatu noted.
The analysts concluded that with the 2027 elections still years away, the success of the Atiku-led coalition will depend on whether opposition leaders can overcome their internal differences and present a united front. Otherwise, history may repeat itself, with the ruling party capitalising on their divisions.

mrvitalis:
If the election in 2027 have any resemblance of being free and fair Tinubu dont stand a single chance not a single chance he would lose before 12 noon

No body on earth can rig election in the North East and North West if you are unpopular

Tinubu rigged because he was popular somehow not now again

South East... Them no born him papa well to come rig here

3 zone gone... The rest 3 zones he is not sure of winning 2 south South and middle belt rigging can give him victory here but net votes would be so small it would be meaningless

casualobserver:
People need to be a bit more discerning.

ElRufai wanted to be a minister. Therefore he is clearly still politically ambitious. For someone who has been a governor and a minister what else is there to aim for but the presidency or possibly the VP as a stepping a stone. Park that for now.

Northern ambitious politicians especially some governors want to be president. An opening is coming up for the North either in 2027 or 2031. If you as an ambitious northern politician don’t seize that opportunity, that’s your chance of being the president gone. A Northern president in 2027 cannot hand over to another northerner in 2031 or 2035 especially after denying the South its 2 terms.

The idea that ElRufai, Atiku, Kwankwanso, Bala Mohammed or the likes of Sule Lamido or Tambuwal will work for each other to make one the president in 2027 is to me a fallacy! And to me this is where the alliance unravels. Atiku will run, constitutionally he can’t be a VP again meaning any northern heavy weight supporting him is basically kissing goodbye to any presidential ambition.

My prediction: they will fail to form an alliance or will engage in anti-alliance activities and split the votes again. Be under no illusion, there are ambitious Northern opposition heavyweights who want to be president and would rather wait for 2031 by which time 1) Atiku their main threat would be too old to run thus giving them a smoother path and 2) they would be able to count on undiluted southern votes. Nobody is doing this out of the interests of the people. Where you stand is based on how the permutations serve you politically. It is politically suicidal for any ambitious northern heavy weight to back any northern candidate other than himself. For the same reason the likes of Fayemi, Osinbajo, Tunde Bakare etc contested against Tinubu….they knew it is then or never. After Tinubu the SW will not be president for 40 years….a generation!

For an ambitious northern politician, he knows it is better to back a southern candidate in 2027. Furthermore, he also knows backing Tinububserves his interests better because he can’t contest again in 2031. If he backs a fresh southern candidate like Amaechi or Obi, they could break any agreement to serve one term like Jonathan at which point they would also have the power of incumbency. If Atiku wins he can’t handover to another Northerner so It does not serve the interest of ANY northern governor whether PDP or APC to back another Northerner in 2027 other than himself.

I say this not because I support Tinubu. For me the logical, smart move for an ambitious Northern governor or politician is to back, be seen to back and deliver for Tinubu in 2027. A Sule lamido, Tambuwal, Kwakwanso, Bala Mohammed, even Saraki have nothing to gain politically by backing Atiku or aligning with ElRufai if they nurse ambitions to be president themselves. With Atiku out of the picture in 2031, the SW vote and Tinubu’s backing will play a big role if not determine which Northerner becomes president in 2031.

Politicians make deals all the time, In 2011 despite ACN having a presidential candidate Tinubu made a deal with Jonathan and delivered SW votes. In 2023, Wike and Makinde made a deal with Tinubu. Again I repeat your relevance in politics is predicated on your ability to deliver votes. ElRufai has no votes backing him. The only Northerners I can see as part of any coalition especially are those who are either political lightweights or have no presidential ambition. When the time comes those who have votes and have ambitions will make the right deals for them. Leave ElRufai and his social media content. We know the fate of all social media politicians like Sowore and Fela Durotoye.

So you see, personal ambition will trump any alliance and all that is happening now is just noise.

The difference between this proposed alliance/merger and the Tinubu/Buhari alliance is that the APC merger was a win win for everybody involved in the merger. Tinubu did not want to be president in 2015, so he was happy just to have his party at the center…..win, Buhari became president….win, Amaechi became minister….win, Saraki became senate president….win…..none of the leaders of the blocks that merged were interested in the presidency. The eastern flank represented by Rochas and Ngige were not interested in becoming president. This merger will only produce a win for one and career extinction for the others and that’s why it won’t work. A good deal is a deal where everyone gets what he wants.

Eleph:
We are watching and waiting to see how far it goes.

mrvitalis:
If the election in 2027 have any resemblance of being free and fair Tinubu dont stand a single chance not a single chance he would lose before 12 noon

No body on earth can rig election in the North East and North West if you are unpopular

Tinubu rigged because he was popular somehow not now again

South East... Them no born him papa well to come rig here

3 zone gone... The rest 3 zones he is not sure of winning 2 south South and middle belt rigging can give him victory here but net votes would be so small it would be meaningless

Kingpele:
Whatever happens tinubu must vacate Asorock 2027 ..that man is a huge calamity that happened to Nigeria

Gandollar:
The proponents of the coalition are all seasoned politicians. When the time comes, the game plan would unfold.

Until then, APC can continue chasing shadows.