How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust - Politics (3)

How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust - Politics (3) - Nairaland

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Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Codes151(m): 1:52pm On Mar 21, 2025

Obi will be a fool is he stupidly join forces with these Islamic bigots

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by searchlight: 1:52pm On Mar 21, 2025

SeeWahala:
Hahaha 🤣 we all know Peter Obi alone can't get the votes needed for CHANGE and will need a strong and niche coalition of very like-minded individuals to succeed.

And he will get it by now it's clear that the next elections strategy that will be adopted by APC and agbadoid urchinus would be outright rigging and voter intimidation

Propaganda can't sell anymore obidients full ground

You can only rig election where you are popular. Imagine rigging for APC in Upper Iweka onitsha. How is that possible. Tinubu is only popular in south west now. He will certainly win 90 percent of lagos votes this time because because will be bullied but you can't say that anywhere else outside south west

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by ECIDSGO: 1:53pm On Mar 21, 2025

Guy review you information

"However, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and the Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) formed a strategic alliance in 1979, allowing the NPN to secure a parliamentary majority and form a government".

There was no parliamentary system in 1979, it was presidential, NPN did not need to form and alliance with NPP to form a government.

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Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by searchlight: 1:53pm On Mar 21, 2025

hustler2828:
Forget that talk, I don't see any opposition defeating Jagaban in 2027. That guy knows what he is doing. He has moles in those opposition parties. Wike is a good example.

When the collapse the opposition in a new party let's see how Wike will infiltrate the party

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Tonnyray: 2:04pm On Mar 21, 2025

Justnation:
This coalition will work perfectly
Tinubu must go

Those strange bedfellows? grin

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by searchlight: 2:04pm On Mar 21, 2025

Jonjam269:
You are politically naive, and your analysis shows a lack of political depth. This is why your political predictions and analysis always fail. You had the same failed political predictions in the 2023 elections, and the same thing will likely happen in 2027.

I am an Obidient from south east but I want Obi to be a deputy to Atiku. That is the only ticket that will give tinubu and APC sleepless night. Anything outside that will play to the hands of APC. You self know

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Jayhome24: 2:05pm On Mar 21, 2025

Play out where?

Time wasters, bloody jokers.

I just dey laugh...

Una eyes go turn una.

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by gmo10(m): 2:05pm On Mar 21, 2025

mrvitalis:
If the election in 2027 have any resemblance of being free and fair Tinubu dont stand a single chance not a single chance he would lose before 12 noon

No body on earth can rig election in the North East and North West if you are unpopular

Tinubu rigged because he was popular somehow not now again
Dey play

South East... Them no born him papa well to come rig here

3 zone gone... The rest 3 zones he is not sure of winning 2 south South and middle belt rigging can give him victory here but net votes would be so small it would be meaningless

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Augustenite(m): 2:07pm On Mar 21, 2025

mrvitalis:
If the election in 2027 have any resemblance of being free and fair Tinubu dont stand a single chance not a single chance he would lose before 12 noon

No body on earth can rig election in the North East and North West if you are unpopular

Tinubu rigged because he was popular somehow not now again

South East... Them no born him papa well to come rig here

3 zone gone... The rest 3 zones he is not sure of winning 2 south South and middle belt rigging can give him victory here but net votes would be so small it would be meaningless

Always ranting. And preparing for excuse for there coming looses. What a shame.

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Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Mrexcell(m): 2:08pm On Mar 21, 2025

mrvitalis:
If the election in 2027 have any resemblance of being free and fair Tinubu dont stand a single chance not a single chance he would lose before 12 noon

No body on earth can rig election in the North East and North West if you are unpopular

Tinubu rigged because he was popular somehow not now again

South East... Them no born him papa well to come rig here

3 zone gone... The rest 3 zones he is not sure of winning 2 south South and middle belt rigging can give him victory here but net votes would be so small it would be meaningless

U are very correct it's not easy to rig presidential elections in the east the last one in 2023 a very popular apc politician in my community in imo state used his influence to make his mansion a polling unit but yet apc was massively defeated after counting the votes despite all the millions he spent to bribe voters.

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by hotseat: 2:10pm On Mar 21, 2025

This association of sore losers is more likely to fail even before it started.

The reasons are not far-fetched!

Personal ambition, pride and ego would be a huge barrier for them to overcome.

However, one would suggest that they give the leadership to Obi, being a Southerner.

An Atiku or a Hell-Ruffian leadership would be catastrophic because , PO appears a better choice among the "devils".

Tinubu is not Jonathan that was bear-baited into submission.

Tinubu would still trounce them all.

The daily defections to the ruling APC is a pointer that the APC is in full control.

How a disunited, chaotic and drifting opposition hopes to wrest power from the master of the political chess game (Tinubu ) is left to be seen.

@hotseat

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Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by DCmonster: 2:26pm On Mar 21, 2025

casualobserver:
A lot of numbskulls trying to be political analysts.

Oga if he rigged he would have won in those states.

Like you yourself said, you cannot rig where you are not popular. What is the purpose of rigging where you are popular if you don’t rig yourself to a win?

Go and check the results Tinubu did not win most of the states in the North. The secret to winning a national election is to get enough votes n the states across the country and get 25% in 25. You can become president without winning a single state.

Your failure to understand this is why you lose elections. Obi won 99% of the SE and then what? Atiku won most of the north…and then what?

I have already given you a proper analysis of what will play out in 2027, I will reproduce it below. It is shallow for anyone to say an election was won due to rigging. Rigging happens but no rigging can occur without evidence. If the riflfging was enough to alter the results the evidence will exist either in BVAS (over voting) or forms EC8 )altered results). You cannot successfully rig in Nigeria anymore. I know many of you don’t understand English so I will expand: it does not mean you can’t rig. But if your rigging was such that it changed the outcome, you will leave the evidence for your opponent. It is intellectually shallow people that blame rigging. People who do not u derstand how the election system works. There is a reason states like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Borno that used to declare 1-2m votes before struggle to get 600k total votes now. For the same reason Obi and Atiku instead of providing evidence of any claimed rigging instead challenged the eligibility of the winner.

You are the proper numbskull.
You ended up saying thrash. All you did was trying to gaslight fools like you.

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by JASONjnr(m): 2:31pm On Mar 21, 2025

tundegan:
Atiku is a political leper that nobody wants to associate with.

His party (PDP) is already in shambles. How will he lead a coalition?

Same with El-rufai.... A traitor.... Being a part of the coalition and even spearheading the coalition makes the entire coalition a dead-on-arrival mission.

It will never work

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by kedeojo(m): 2:37pm On Mar 21, 2025

mrvitalis:
If the election in 2027 have any resemblance of being free and fair Tinubu dont stand a single chance not a single chance he would lose before 12 noon

No body on earth can rig election in the North East and North West if you are unpopular

Tinubu rigged because he was popular somehow not now again

South East... Them no born him papa well to come rig here

3 zone gone... The rest 3 zones he is not sure of winning 2 south South and middle belt rigging can give him victory here but net votes would be so small it would be meaningless

Tinubu will still win. South east vote is inconsequential. Tinubu has already gotten Northern Christians major votes. South west will give him so much votes now cos Obi propaganda as died. Most of south south will vote for Tinubu. He will still get many votes in north west and north east. The Northern Apc leaders know is their turn. What does south east holding on to, abi na the normal nzogbu nzogbu.

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Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by mrvitalis(m): 2:41pm On Mar 21, 2025

kedeojo:
Tinubu will still win. South east vote is inconsequential. Tinubu has already gotten Northern Christians major votes. South west will give him so much votes now cos Obi propaganda as died. Most of south south will vote for Tinubu. He will still get many votes in north west and north east. The Northern Apc leaders know is their turn. What does south east holding on to, abi na the normal nzogbu nzogbu.

Northern Christian votes? Did they tell u this in their meeting?

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by OnyeObowo1: 2:41pm On Mar 21, 2025

tundegan:
Atiku is a political leper that nobody wants to associate with.

His party (PDP) is already in shambles. How will he lead a coalition?

Anything to remove this disaster is welcomed

Tinibu is a Terrible president

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Menclothing1: 2:43pm On Mar 21, 2025

Obi and el Rufai not possible if light and darkeness can come together then it’s not about better Nigeria

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by OnyeObowo1: 2:43pm On Mar 21, 2025

mrvitalis:
If the election in 2027 have any resemblance of being free and fair Tinubu dont stand a single chance not a single chance he would lose before 12 noon

No body on earth can rig election in the North East and North West if you are unpopular

Tinubu rigged because he was popular somehow not now again

South East... Them no born him papa well to come rig here

3 zone gone... The rest 3 zones he is not sure of winning 2 south South and middle belt rigging can give him victory here but net votes would be so small it would be meaningless

And what if shetima takes over b4 2027?

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by OnyeObowo1: 2:44pm On Mar 21, 2025

adioolayi:
While it is true Peter Obi can pose a significant threat, especially as he performed well in the last election... something fundamental will work against his emergence ...and that's the Northern factor.

Anyone thinking the North will back another Southerner , who will start a possible 2 terms of 8 years .. against a Tinubu who have used a term and after 4 years power goes back to the North does not know Nigeria's politics.

If the North want to gamble in 2027, they would rather gamble with a Northerner...if he loses, they wait for their turn in 2031...if he wins..that's a luck well played....rather than support a new Southerner which will have a possible 8 years tenure.

The only viable option will be for a Peter Obi to sing an agreement to use just one term of 4 years, so that power can to back to the North....But, will he agree Even if he agrees, can the North trust him These are the issues.

Well, I still see no alliance that will unseat Tinubu.

If North no gree support Obi,
Let Tpain kwantinue

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by OnyeObowo1: 2:45pm On Mar 21, 2025

hustler2828:
Forget that talk, I don't see any opposition defeating Jagaban in 2027. That guy knows what he is doing. He has moles in those opposition parties. Wike is a good example.

What if shetima takes over b4 2027?

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by mrvitalis(m): 2:47pm On Mar 21, 2025

OnyeObowo1:
And what if shetima takes over b4 2027?

That changes everything

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by kedeojo(m): 2:50pm On Mar 21, 2025

casualobserver:
A lot of numbskulls trying to be political analysts.

Oga if he rigged he would have won in those states.

Like you yourself said, you cannot rig where you are not popular. What is the purpose of rigging where you are popular if you don’t rig yourself to a win?

Go and check the results Tinubu did not win most of the states in the North. The secret to winning a national election is to get enough votes n the states across the country and get 25% in 25. You can become president without winning a single state.

Your failure to understand this is why you lose elections. Obi won 99% of the SE and then what? Atiku won most of the north…and then what?

I have already given you a proper analysis of what will play out in 2027, I will reproduce it below. It is shallow for anyone to say an election was won due to rigging. Rigging happens but no rigging can occur without evidence. If the riflfging was enough to alter the results the evidence will exist either in BVAS (over voting) or forms EC8 )altered results). You cannot successfully rig in Nigeria anymore. I know many of you don’t understand English so I will expand: it does not mean you can’t rig. But if your rigging was such that it changed the outcome, you will leave the evidence for your opponent. It is intellectually shallow people that blame rigging. People who do not u derstand how the election system works. There is a reason states like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Borno that used to declare 1-2m votes before struggle to get 600k total votes now. For the same reason Obi and Atiku instead of providing evidence of any claimed rigging instead challenged the eligibility of the winner.

you are politically inclined. Leave nzogbu nzogbu people who think the Northerners will support Obi. Jonathan showed them that trust is not real. Jonathan promised never to recontest in 2015 after Obasanjo intervention in 2011 . They will be divided cos some will support themselves why others will support Tinubu's reelection. The best bet for igbos is vice presidency under APC in 2031 but hatred and bitterness will not allow them to see the big picture but when they lost totally by south south producing the vice president comes 2031, they will cry marginalization and Biafra republic.

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Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by lekonso: 3:06pm On Mar 21, 2025

Antichristian2:
May we live beyond 2027 in good wealth, health and with peace of mind to see it all!

AMEEEN. It will be very interesting. This is Atiku's last chance, and the chance is even very slim.

1 Like

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by lekonso: 3:13pm On Mar 21, 2025

TempleHouse:
It's obvious Tinubu is jittery and knows the end is near by 2027.

Either Atiku or Obi will send him packing.

Thus the reason his son Seyi- the drunkard was being sent on an errand across geopolitical spectrum now.

You better know now, that Obi can't win any election in this country.

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Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Coronavirus1: 3:15pm On Mar 21, 2025

adioolayi:
While it is true Peter Obi can pose a significant threat, especially as he performed well in the last election... something fundamental will work against his emergence ...and that's the Northern factor.

Anyone thinking the North will back another Southerner , who will start a possible 2 terms of 8 years .. against a Tinubu who have used a term and after 4 years power goes back to the North does not know Nigeria's politics.

If the North want to gamble in 2027, they would rather gamble with a Northerner...if he loses, they wait for their turn in 2031...if he wins..that's a luck well played....rather than support a new Southerner which will have a possible 8 years tenure.

The only viable option will be for a Peter Obi to sing an agreement to use just one term of 4 years, so that power can to back to the North....But, will he agree Even if he agrees, can the North trust him These are the issues.

Well, I still see no alliance that will unseat Tinubu.

You are wrong it's all about power sharing obi might just be giving chance of 4 years he will step down and continue to work with the next government

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by adioolayi(m): 3:18pm On Mar 21, 2025

Coronavirus1:
You are wrong it's all about power sharing obi might just be giving chance of 4 years he will step down and continue to work with the next government

Why did you say I was wrong? What you wrote is actually an option in my submission....and the big question....can the North believe an agreement with Obi to use 4 years huh

This is politics... Nigeria's politics

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Amumaigwe: 3:30pm On Mar 21, 2025

SeeWahala:
Hahaha 🤣 we all know Peter Obi alone can't get the votes needed for CHANGE and will need a strong and niche coalition of very like-minded individuals to succeed.

And he will get it by now it's clear that the next elections strategy that will be adopted by APC and agbadoid urchinus would be outright rigging and voter intimidation

Propaganda can't sell anymore obidients full ground

What is driving the coalition is not necessarily power shift back to the north but rather the untold hardship Tinubu has brought upon Nigerians. What was the advantage of Buhari's government to the North? They have realized that good governance from a competent individual Trump's sectional interests.

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Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by Honestey: 3:37pm On Mar 21, 2025

I no get time to read long epistle but me I know how it will play out.
1) They will form a new party called Power Hunter Party (PHP) to hunt down power from the president
2) They'll conduct primary and as usual Atiku will win after sharing dollars
3) Hell Rufai will be in limbo as Atiku can't run Hausa-Hausa ticket so Obi from a Presidential Flagbearer will become hopeful VP candidate.
4) Then as usual Hell Rufai will be angry that after he also shared plenty money at the primary and he's the one who brought them together how will be just looking then he will angrily decamp to LP to give Obi and Atiku upper cut.
5) All the obidients will be angry that Obi should be the presidential candidate and not VP and 60% of them will follow Sowore.

As a result;
The original PDP will fill another candidate in the 2027 general election and the election results will be as follows:

APC 1st
PDP 2nd
LP. 3rd (As usual)
PWP 4th
NNPC 5th

This is just my assumption and does not intended to make anyone stop supporting Obi Atiku or Hell Rufai[/b]

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by osayuwamwen(m): 3:38pm On Mar 21, 2025

Stop all this northern nonsense this is the reason why this country is Fucking mess up is it the north that own Nigeria ? Abeg Peter obi is the only chance they have and his chance aagin tinubu is 4/10 now that tinubu is a sitting president he's not Jonathan tinubu rugged

adioolayi:
While it is true Peter Obi can pose a significant threat, especially as he performed well in the last election... something fundamental will work against his emergence ...and that's the Northern factor.

Anyone thinking the North will back another Southerner , who will start a possible 2 terms of 8 years .. against a Tinubu who have used a term and after 4 years power goes back to the North does not know Nigeria's politics.

If the North want to gamble in 2027, they would rather gamble with a Northerner...if he loses, they wait for their turn in 2031...if he wins..that's a luck well played....rather than support a new Southerner which will have a possible 8 years tenure.

The only viable option will be for a Peter Obi to sing an agreement to use just one term of 4 years, so that power can to back to the North....But, will he agree Even if he agrees, can the North trust him These are the issues.

Well, I still see no alliance that will unseat Tinubu.

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by hustler2828: 3:42pm On Mar 21, 2025

OnyeObowo1:
What if shetima takes over b4 2027?

No Jagaban the master strategist, no APC.

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by CorrectionFLuid: 3:42pm On Mar 21, 2025

mrvitalis:
If the election in 2027 have any resemblance of being free and fair Tinubu dont stand a single chance not a single chance he would lose before 12 noon

No body on earth can rig election in the North East and North West if you are unpopular

Tinubu rigged because he was popular somehow not now again

South East... Them no born him papa well to come rig here

3 zone gone... The rest 3 zones he is not sure of winning 2 south South and middle belt rigging can give him victory here but net votes would be so small it would be meaningless

Oga he will write results and nothing will happen.

A bully doesn't just come and do the most to you. He starts small, and increases it to test your tolerance level. Tinubu has tested our tolerance and he's sure he will get away with whatever he throws at us in the future.

Re: How Atiku, Obi, El-rufai’s Coalition May Play Out - Daily Trust by ottersberger(m): 3:43pm On Mar 21, 2025

It is no secret that the 2027 presidential election will be a contest between two candidates from the South, assuming political coalitions hold and there are no last-minute betrayals—both of which remain possibilities. Given the results of the 2023 election, one must ask: where does Ahmed Tinubu expect to gain new voters?

Peter Obi has made it clear that he will not participate in a merger, which strongly suggests his intent to be on the ballot in 2027. If Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, and others form a coalition with Obi, who already has a solid, eight-million-strong supporter base known as the “Obidients”, it would be a clear indication that they accept him as the coalition’s flag bearer.

Regardless of circumstances, Obi is expected to secure an overwhelming victory in the Southeast, likely with margins exceeding 90%. Additionally, he will attract the majority of votes in Christian-dominated areas of the Northeast, as he did in the previous election. In the South-South, Obi is projected to win at least three states, Edo, Delta, and Cross River. Rivers State could also swing in his favor, as it did in the last election, despite allegations of electoral malpractice. Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom, historically PDP strongholds, would likely go to the coalition as well.

In the Southwest, Tinubu has already started targeting Osun State, and the political landscape there will become clearer in the coming months. He is expected to win Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, and Ondo, while Osun remains a battleground, potentially decided by how much ethnic politics influences the electorate. However, Tinubu is unlikely to secure Lagos in 2027.

In North Central, Tinubu is expected to follow the previous election pattern, though it is widely recognized that he did not actually win Benue in 2023. With the APC now in control of the state, he may secure a legitimate majority there, particularly as the Tiv population is expected to align with Governor Hyacinth Alia. Nasarawa, Plateau, and the FCT will likely go to the Obi-led coalition, while Kwara could become competitive if Bukola Saraki joins the coalition, as speculated. This would leave Niger and Kogi as potential APC strongholds, giving Tinubu just three states in the region. Notably, Nyesom Wike’s presence in the FCT is unlikely to significantly alter voting patterns, as votes in the capital, much like in Lagos, are not primarily determined by indigenous populations.

Meanwhile, Tinubu has fallen out of favor with much of the North and is unlikely to win Kaduna State, especially with Nasir El-Rufai actively working against the APC. El-Rufai commands significant influence in Kaduna North, and Governor Uba Sani is unlikely to neutralize his impact. Additionally, Southern Kaduna remains strongly in Obi’s camp.

The Northwest and Northeast will likely be divided between Tinubu and Obi if he becomes the coalition’s flag bearer based on the regional influence of coalition partners such as Atiku Abubakar, El-Rufai, and potentially Musa Kwankwaso and Bala Mohammed, among others. Unlike in 2023, Tinubu cannot expect overwhelming support from this region.

That said, Musa Kwankwaso must be closely watched, as his past political maneuvers, particularly his covert alignment with Tinubu during the 2023 campaign, suggest he could play the role of a “vote vulture.”

Ultimately, assuming a level playing field and the absence of blatant electoral malpractice, it is difficult to see a clear path for Ahmed Tinubu’s victory in 2027 if we discount his penchant for electoral criminality. However, one cannot discount the possibility of electoral manipulation, with Mahmood Yakubu’s infamous 4 a.m. announcements perhaps being replaced by a 2 a.m. version this time.

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