₦airaland Forum

Yeye Eloni Muskule condemning the Trump's decision to impose trade tariffs because EU will reduce patronage on Tesla to look for alternative from China. Already China are threatening competitors

RodgersAkpafu:
Zero for Zero is not bad

But in such an arrangement
America go still lose
So I wonder if trump will take it

Good thinking if America should take it, they should set a supply and demand equilibrium

fuckJones:
you mean the same Obi that was arrested and detained?

my brother
If my post dey pain you you’re free to cry🤣🤣🤣

Chonchin:
It would be zero to zero on industrial good with trade balance. If EU exports $10billion worth of industrial goods, the US would export the same amount. Any surplus between the two countries over the other would not be allowed

No, it means if they import goods from USA, the goods will not be tasked and vice versa. The only thing that will differentiate the price from what is been sold in both places is the shipping fee.

Hohaiiiode:
not every people are as dumb as you guys! A lot of this countries and blocks know there are unfair to USA in terms of this tariffs and payment of their part of funding of nato and many more!
Zero for zero is a better option for them! If it is agreed upon !

Dumb as which guys?
If you don't understand my post, ask question, don't jump into conclusion.

All the EU knows how to do best is rant and rant instead of react

Thunderfayamods:
All countries are not dumb and undiplomatic like Trump. Diplomacy first if that didn't work they will retaliate.

So Donald Trump is dumb and undiplomatic?
Any way, that's a suggestion from your end, the real G knows better.

Xisnin:
I suppose EU just said this to fulfill all righteousness.

Trump may likely push back at first.
Apart from electric vehicles and weapons, US have no other advantage over the EU.
A zero tariff on industrial goods will mostly "benefit" the EU.

Waiting for the pro-tariff Trump-supporter to make a U-turn immediately dear leader
changes his mind and tell us that tariffs are no longer good.

What about drugs?
45% of the world pharmaceutical companies are in the US

not true, the EU need access to the US market. Let me give you a practical example.

Mercedes which is one of Germany's biggest exporters sold about 2.4 million vehicles last year and their biggest markets are China with 683k cars and the US with 324k cars.

If you look at the link below you will see that the number of cars sold to China fell 7% because foreign car makers like Mercedes are being squeezed out as the Chinese prioritize local car brands especially EV cars. I have a friend who was in China recently and he said it was Chinese EV cars everywhere. Demand falling 7% in one tear is a MASSIVE loss and I can assure you that this is the beginning. The Chinese are pushing aggressively for access to the EU market and if they get in the likes of Mercedes will suffer even more. There is no way they can compete with the Chinese on price, no way at all.

My point, carmakers like Mercedes are already being squeezed out of China, I can assure you they will be hurt bad if they are also squeezed out of the US market. The tariffs will make their cars 25% more expensive than other cars produced in the US so unless you really really really want a Mercedes the average person will be driven by price. In this case Mercedes needs to protect that access to the US market, they cannot afford to be squeezed out at all and the EU and Germany know this. Mercedes does not have a ready market to mop up the demand fall from the US and China.

And you can see in some responses from various carmakers that they are wither committing to or considering expanding their production or moving production to the US to escape the tariffs. This will help keep the cost of their cars lower, improve technology know how for the American workforce and create jobs in the US.

The tariffs coupled with the proposed tiered corporate tax rates for products manufactured in the US v imported and things like tax credits for buying cars made in the US will all have an impact.

While I am not a fan of the erratic approach here I can tell you that the buyer has the upper hand here and the US is the biggest consumer market at the moment. As a buyer the choice I face is "damn I can't buy the Mercedes I really want so I have to buy a Ford". The choice facing the car manufacturers outside is to cut jobs and shut factories as demand fall. Most of the carmakers in Mexico and Canada are there primarily for access to the US market through NAFTA not for Canada or Mexico.

I would rather have to choose a car I don't want than lose my job.

https://group.mercedes-benz.com/company/news/sales-2024.html

And this can be replicated across many other companies and sectors. And frankly many of these countries have protectionist policies eg Canadian banks make nearly 50% of their revenue in the US, BMO, TD etc. but US banks are restricted in Canada to protect the market for Canadian banks. France is one of the most protectionist countries on earth lol

Xisnin:
I suppose EU just said this to fulfill all righteousness.

Trump may likely push back at first.
Apart from electric vehicles and weapons, US have no other advantage over the EU.
A zero tariff on industrial goods will mostly "benefit" the EU.

Waiting for the pro-tariff Trump-supporter to make a U-turn immediately dear leader
changes his mind and tell us that tariffs are no longer good.

Hahaha ok you're a troll

Well done.

Kaiser20:
For information EU can do more than the US IS doing today
Europe will Not Miss the USA If they poll out NATO.
Only Africa will Miss the USA

ttmacoy:
not true, the EU need access to the US market. Let me give you a practical example.

Where in my post did I talk about access to market?
Do you guys even read the topic before responding?
I said, the US industrial sector will lose badly in zero tariff regime apart from electric vehicles
and weapons, you ignored that and you brought up a strawman on who import or export what.
How is that relevant?

If you think I am wrong, talk specifically about the tariff and the EU counter deal and how
you think a zero tariff will benefit the US more in the industrial sector in relation to the EU.

Share your proof here. You've taken a random post on X from an unknown as gospel yet you claim Trump supporters are stupid

Goke7:
Someone wey don fold by suggesting a 90-day pause on the tariffs 😂 Dey play

Lol please stop. The aim of the tariffs coupled with other policies such as tax policies etc. is to encourage companies both US and foreign companies to increase production in the US.

Your statement that the EU industrial sector is stronger than the US aside EV and weapons makes absolutely no sense, nd my point remains the buyer has the upper hand here not the seller. If as you say the EU has better industrials, they need to sell their products right? So unless they have a ready market to soak up falling demand from the US they have to work with the US to retain access and sell. The tariffs puts their access at risk because it will make their products more expensive, so unless they have lots of products with no competition or alternatives the average person will be driven by prices and their sales will fall.

Many EU companies and also American companies are already dealing with falling demand from China as the Chinese prioritize and push local brands, I can assure you that they cannot withstand falling demand in the US as well without significant impact.

Xisnin:
Where in my post did I talk about access to market?
Do you guys even read the topic before responding?
I said, the US industrial sector will lose badly in zero tariff regime apart from electric vehicles
and weapons, you ignored that and you brought up a strawman on who import or export what.
How is that relevant?

If you think I am wrong, talk specifically about the tariff and the EU counter deal and how
you think a zero tariff will benefit the US more in the industrial sector in relation to the EU.

maasoap:
Good for Zimbabweans. I hope Nigerian government follows the same step, make the prices of all imports from USA crash in our market. Never!! Tinubu will never do that even if Trump raise the tariffs on the imports from Nigeria to 50% as retaliation or reduce it to 0% as a good gesture

Are we leaning something here, guys?
Nigeria's 26% import tariff on imports from USA only benefits our government, we the citizens are the ones bearing the burden and we don't even know what they're doing with the revenues.
kolexy Germi9: FutureFocus: grandstar(m): Tareq1105:

JuanDeDios:
You think caution means weakness. Go and attack them and see naa.

It's not caution, EU dropped the ball massively in terms of their military output and that was because America was doing the heavy lifting until recently. Most of them are struggling to meet their military quota, can't even achieve a 5 percent earmark on defense budget. Apart from Turkey and France ( which is all talks and no show) the rest are wimps.

IyfeNamikaze:
It's not caution, EU dropped the ball massively in terms of their military output and that was because America was doing the heavy lifting until recently. Most of them are struggling to meet their military quota, can't even achieve a 5 percent earmark on defense budget. Apart from Turkey and France ( which is all talks and no show) the rest are wimps.

This is largely true. But you're wrong that they can't achieve something substantial in five years–especially Germany, which I'm sure has every blueprint - from nukes to everything else - hidden away somewhere. Or that what they currently have is not up to scratch. While they are not armed like the Russians and the Americans, if they pull their resources, it can still come up to something, especially against a war-weakened Russia. In the time it will take Russia to recover, they too can re-arm. Remember they have MONEY. Which also means they can BUY from the Americans if it comes down to it.

Dandsome:
Until Trump withdraws their forces from NATO then you'll understand

And who is using NATO to serve her own agenda other than US?

Built2last:
ok. They are ready to shift grounds?

I have not seen a useless, toothless organisation like EU. Led Ukraine to war they can't fund nor have what it takes to defend Europe.

Remove U.S, Remove China. The current European standing military can't win Russia in an all out war

All you people think of is war. Always think of good things.

JuanDeDios:
This is largely true. But you're wrong that they can't achieve something substantial in five years–especially Germany, which I'm sure has every blueprint - from nukes to everything else - hidden away somewhere. Or that what they currently have is not up to scratch. While they are not armed like the Russians and the Americans, if they pull their resources, it can still come up to something, especially against a war-weakened Russia. In the time it will take Russia to recover, they too can re-arm. Remember they have MONEY. Which also means they can BUY from the Americans if it comes down to it.

Germany may be able to achieve something but it won't be enough to threaten Russia. They never achieved nuclear armament , all their nuclear power plants are for civilian uses like for generating electricity. Besides, they're signatory to the NPT(Non prolific Treaty) which prevents them from going beyond that. It takes time to achieve nuclear armament anyway. And Don't be fooled by the news coming from the West, Russia is not war weakened, in fact the opposite is the case. They have transitioned to a war economy since last year and are producing and ramping up their military above expectations. There's a reason Poland keep screaming that Putin would come for the rest of Europe once he's done with Ukraine. They're getting more stronger and more experienced and that's a problem for their neighbours.
You just don't buy nuclear armament, it's not really practical. You might be given the warhead but no one is selling their Launch codes to you. Even to get the warheads at the moment is tricky because everyone who has it is on alert, Canada and France don't have enough for them to be selling anything, neither does Turkyie, Israel is very concerned about Iran and they don't have much, America will not sell theirs because of Russia who has more warheads than they do. Maybe you can get US to bring their warheads to your territory like they wanted to do with Ukraine, maybe.

Canadian transfers not going thru their US correspondent bank.
Hampering a lot of transactions.
I was suprised.
First kind of message I've ever seen in international payment

IyfeNamikaze:
Germany may be able to achieve something but it won't be enough to threaten Russia. They never achieved nuclear armament , all their nuclear power plants are for civilian uses like for generating electricity. Besides, they're signatory to the NPT(Non prolific Treaty) which prevents them from going beyond that. It takes time to achieve nuclear armament anyway. And Don't be fooled by the news coming from the West, Russia is not war weakened, in fact the opposite is the case. They have transitioned to a war economy since last year and are producing and ramping up their military above expectations. There's a reason Poland keep screaming that Putin would come for the rest of Europe once he's done with Ukraine. They're getting more stronger and more experienced and that's a problem for their neighbours.
You just don't buy nuclear armament, it's not really practical. You might be given the warhead but no one is selling their Launch codes to you. Even to get the warheads at the moment is tricky because everyone who has it is on alert, Canada and France don't have enough for them to be selling anything, neither does Turkyie, Israel is very concerned about Iran and they don't have much, America will not sell theirs because of Russia who has more warheads than they do. Maybe you can get US to bring their warheads to your territory like they wanted to do with Ukraine, maybe.

I can’t prove it, but I’m completely sure Germany and Japan have the blueprint for nukes hidden away somewhere – and can have nukes in months, not years, if comes down to it. NPT? Hehehe. No, I wasn’t talking about buying nukes. I was talking about buying conventional weapons. (If it comes to a nuclear war, France and the UK have them too. And I doubt even Putin would start a war that’d cost him his life and country. Corrupt dictators always have the trait of not being suicidal. So I’m still talking about a conventional war). You think Russia is not war-weakened because they’re in war economy? Well, it won’t be first time everyone thought Russa is stronger than they are. And note they’re not the only ones that switched to a war economy – most of the small countries around them did. Including Ukraine itself.

JuanDeDios:
I can’t prove it, but I’m completely sure Germany and Japan have the blueprint for nukes hidden away somewhere – and can have nukes in months, not years, if comes down to it. NPT? Hehehe. No, I wasn’t talking about buying nukes. I was talking about buying conventional weapons. (If it comes to a nuclear war, France and the UK have them too. And I doubt even Putin would start a war that’d cost him his life and country. Corrupt dictators always have the trait of not being suicidal. So I’m still talking about a conventional war). You think Russia is not war-weakened because they’re in war economy? Well, it won’t be first time everyone thought Russa is stronger than they are. And note they’re not the only ones that switched to a war economy – most of the small countries around them did. Including Ukraine itself.

Germany and Japan don't have it I'm sorry. That thing is not someone you can hide. There's a reason why every country that has it is known to the public along with their estimated capacity, and why any country that approaches that capacity is immediately publicised like in the case of Iran. For years Israel claimed that they don't have it but everyone knew that they were lying, it was not until mid last year that they finally own up to the fact that they had it and no one acted surprised.
Besides Japan is the last country that would ever move towards nuclear armament and you should know why that is so, and it's related to Why Germany never moved towards that direction. UK is no longer in the EU remember? Brexit means Brexit .
Putin just might actually start such a war, Russia have more nuclear warheads than the entire EU combined and they have MAD capability ( Mutual Assured Destruction) which means that whatever you do, there's a 100 percent assurance that their nukes will hit anywhere in the world even if it's the USA. That's why EU are being very very cautious with how much help they give to Ukraine because Putin have threatened to use those nukes if they get too comfortable. That's also why Trump told Zelensky that he's risking starting WW3 with Russia. All these countries are aware of each others estimated capacity and they're all being very careful as not to Push Putin to the wall and make him feel cornered.
Buying conventional weapons is all well and good but that doesn't help you that much and it also puts a huge strain on the economy and budgets, Europeans don't want their grocery prices to triple, they will protest and vote out any government who's policy threatens their comfort. That's just how they are.
Only Russia is in war economy, Ukraine have no choice but to do same but "carve me the same hair wey you carve Obi-- But Obi head and your own no be the same thing" is What's happened to Ukraine. Their economy can't stand it and most aids they're getting from EU and US were to keep their economy from totally collapsing. They have ramped up their production of drones, kudos to them on that though but that's still not enough as they're losing ground every month. Poland are gearing up to enter a war economy in the eventuality that Ukraine losses, the rest of European countries close to Russia only announced to follow suit but they haven't done anything towards that yet, their economy is not that strong for that yet.
Besides, Russia can just off Nord stream and everyone would be on their best behaviour.

Russia is a threat because EU countries messed up for too long and are now just playing catch up.

Americans are lucky to have Trump while some zombies are parroting left wing's talking points against Trump, his reciprocal tariffs are already leveling the play ground for Americans.
Now why will Ford or GM make cars in Mexico or Canada in order to pay lesser tax?

American Auto Workers were right to have voted for Trump.
Gas prices are down in USA.

Trump 2028. . MAGA FOREVER

Xisnin:
No.
You are the shameless one who belief tariff are great for the economy because Trump
said so and would instantly declare that tariff is bad immediately Trump makes a U-turn.

EU hasn't bowed, it offered Zero-tariff proposition on industrial goods where it has the
largest advantage. The only beneficiary of such a deal is Musk Tesla, every other US
major industrial manufacturing sector will eventually be destroyed by EU counterparts.
This is more of a ridicule rather than a win for Trump, though he is too dull to understand.

If he accept, he pose major risk to American industrial sector outside of electric vehicles,
if he refused, the EU tariffs are coming. Yes, don't celebrate yet.


So, I ask you, since tariffs are great at bring back manufacturing and jobs and boosting
the economy, does it make sense for Trump to even try to negotiate with anybody?

Why would he deny Americans such great benefit from tariff by negotiating?

You are contradicting yourself

maasoap:
Are we leaning something here, guys?
Nigeria's 26% import tariff on imports from USA only benefits our government, we the citizens are the ones bearing the burden and we don't even know what they're doing with the revenues.
kolexy Germi9: FutureFocus: grandstar(m): Tareq1105:

Sharp

ttmacoy:
Lol please stop. The aim of the tariffs coupled with other policies such as tax policies etc. is to encourage companies both US and foreign companies to increase production in the US.

This is about tariff and its effect, nothing to do with how Trump chose to tax or not tax its citizens.

Your statement that the EU industrial sector is stronger than the US aside EV and weapons makes absolutely no sense,

Because you say so?
This isn't some super secret information. It is not hard to compare both countries industrial outputs.

nd my point remains the buyer has the upper hand here not the seller.

The buyer having the upper hand only make sense when it has options or can produce
all the goods itself and more importantly it is willing to commit economic suicide for a small chance of
winning in a future scenario.
Trump may be a fool but the wealthy elites aren't. They know that any advantage given up for the war is lost forever.

You probably think the EU is some poor African country like Zimbabwe with no economic
leverage.

If as you say the EU has better industrials, they need to sell their products right? So unless they have a ready market to soak up falling demand from the US they have to work with the US to retain access and sell.

US also need access for its service industry which dwarfs every other market in the globe.
And also its electric vehicles and weapons.
This isn't a one-way street as Trump and his supporters wish it was.

The tariffs puts their access at risk because it will make their products more expensive, so unless they have lots of products with no competition or alternatives the average person will be driven by prices and their sales will fall.

[quote]Many EU companies and also American companies are already dealing with falling demand from China as the Chinese prioritize and push local brands, I can assure you that they cannot withstand falling demand in the US as well without significant impact.

You said many EU and American countries are dealing with falling demand.
Then went ahead to claim that they cannot withstand falling US demand.
At this point, your argument is based on nothing but extreme fetishization of super-nation American
that can do anything it likes but will never be affected. This isn't Hollyhood!
There is a reason it is called a trade war and not trade beatings.

EU tariffs is coming BTW. This was made to placate the placate the moderate members who wants to try negotiation first.
You and Trump will learn that it doesn't how big of a gun you think you carry, if your opponent can also shoot accurately,
then "winning" becomes more complicated with serious and even fatal injuries.

NybenSBF101:
You are contradicting yourself

I know comprehension is very hard for some people, especially Trump supporter.
But I won't break it down to a seven year old level similar to Trump's vocabulary.

ncoolsome:
Can Russia fight a war in 10 or more fronts ?u guys don't know what war is...take away Russia's nuclear power,what do they have dilapidated and archaic weapons.

That Nuclear power is the real deal sir. So dont take it away. Its a weapon that can obliterate central Europe in 1 hour. What was Europe doing when Russia was building

Built2last:
That Nuclear power is the real deal sir. So dont take it away. Its a weapon that can obliterate central Europe in 1 hour. What was Europe doing when Russia was building

Again I ask can Russia fight in 10 or more fronts..

IyfeNamikaze:
Germany and Japan don't have it I'm sorry. That thing is not someone you can hide. There's a reason why every country that has it is known to the public along with their estimated capacity, and why any country that approaches that capacity is immediately publicised like in the case of Iran. For years Israel claimed that they don't have it but everyone knew that they were lying, it was not until mid last year that they finally own up to the fact that they had it and no one acted surprised.
Besides Japan is the last country that would ever move towards nuclear armament and you should know why that is so, and it's related to Why Germany never moved towards that direction. UK is no longer in the EU remember? Brexit means Brexit .
Putin just might actually start such a war, Russia have more nuclear warheads than the entire EU combined and they have MAD capability ( Mutual Assured Destruction) which means that whatever you do, there's a 100 percent assurance that their nukes will hit anywhere in the world even if it's the USA. That's why EU are being very very cautious with how much help they give to Ukraine because Putin have threatened to use those nukes if they get too comfortable. That's also why Trump told Zelensky that he's risking starting WW3 with Russia. All these countries are aware of each others estimated capacity and they're all being very careful as not to Push Putin to the wall and make him feel cornered.
Buying conventional weapons is all well and good but that doesn't help you that much and it also puts a huge strain on the economy and budgets, Europeans don't want their grocery prices to triple, they will protest and vote out any government who's policy threatens their comfort. That's just how they are.
Only Russia is in war economy, Ukraine have no choice but to do same but "carve me the same hair wey you carve Obi-- But Obi head and your own no be the same thing" is What's happened to Ukraine. Their economy can't stand it and most aids they're getting from EU and US were to keep their economy from totally collapsing. They have ramped up their production of drones, kudos to them on that though but that's still not enough as they're losing ground every month. Poland are gearing up to enter a war economy in the eventuality that Ukraine losses, the rest of European countries close to Russia only announced to follow suit but they haven't done anything towards that yet, their economy is not that strong for that yet.
Besides, Russia can just off Nord stream and everyone would be on their best behaviour.

Russia is a threat because EU countries messed up for too long and are now just playing catch up.

I didn’t say Germany and Japan have nukes. You can read what I’ve said twice up there. Oh yes, you can hide the blueprints and raw materials. You can even hide a nuclear program – ask Israel and Pakistan. You say people knew Israel had it, but there was no proof until Mordecai Vanunu granted that interview. Even at that, till today, nobody even knows where Israel tested its nukes. So, yes, they did successfully hide a nuclear program. Germany isn’t North Korea and Japan isn’t Iran – the West won’t bully them. We've come a long way from 1945, when restrictions were placed on them. And they have MONEY.

What you said about Japan and Germany is why they’ve done everything secretly so far, even though experts believe they do have the shadow of a program in place. No, not nukes. Yet. Britain is a European country, so I'm not sure what you’re on about talking about the EU, an economic bloc. Britain has been attending, even hosting, security meetings with Europe. The new security block that is emerging includes Britain 100% and Canada 80%.

Putin supporters always remind us that Putin has more nukes than anyone. They ignore the fact that that number of nukes does not confer any strategic advantage. Israel is believed to have just 50 warheads. Trust me, that’s more than enough to send Russia to the stone age. I’m really SMHing that you think it’d matter that Russia has more nukes. What would matter is the ability to deploy just ENOUGH to do the intended damage – France and Britain have nuclear subs and the like. Many experts are doubting how many of Putin’s systems even work. But let’s not even go there. Let’s say they have over 1000 heads. (If you ask me, building all those warheads when people are hungry was dumb since you don’t need that much, which is why Russia’s enemies have less corruption and better-fighting military forces, but hey, over a thousand warheads, off to war we go!). 100% assurance? Oh, well. But we’ll see. Well, I hope we don’t. Trust me, even Putin won’t start such a war. Again, corrupt dictators love life. They want to enjoy their loot. Yes, he’s threatened nukes, but he has also been told in clear terms what would be the consequences if he uses one nuke. Some of his red lines have been crossed, haven’t they?

Wait, you really believe Europeans are going to put grocery prices first under the present circumstances and in the face of any war? Have you been following the news and seen the moves Germany and the UK have already made? Trust me, if you as much as sniff towards London tomorrow, the queue to sign up for service will be the longest thing you’ve ever seen. How much time did Chamberlain manage to buy for them (hint: it’s not 10 years), yet they gave a good account of themselves in WW1. The thing the Europeans will have going for them is the fact (1) they have MONEY, (2) they’re very well organized and can switch things around very quickly, (3) they have very low levels of corruption in their security services. Russia lacks these. Not sure why you say conventional weapon doesn’t help. Russia failed to capture Kiev and had their asses handed to them by a small country and had to open their prisons and beg N Korea for troops and N Korea and Iran for weapons. That's the result of conventional weapons Ukraine received from the West. Yea, doesn’t help.

“Europeans don't want their grocery prices to triple, they will protest and vote out any government who's policy threatens their comfort. That's just how they are.”

You, sir, are not a student of history. Because this was the mistake Japan made in WW2. In fact, the captain that led the attack on Pearl Harbor used similar words. Europeans soft? You think they conquered the entire planet by being sissies (at a time Russians were only plundering smaller neighbours and co-opting them into an empire)? Oh, you think modern comforts have affected them. Well, that’s what the Japanese thought of the Americans. No, the Finns are in a war economy too. Actually, they always are. Because of Russia.

Well, it’s been good getting inside the head of Putin fan. Summary: You see this as the beginning of a nuclear war, which Russia will win hands down since they have more nukes. It’s an interesting viewpoint. A kid of 6 knows nobody will win a nuclear war (which is why Putin won’t do it), but it’s an interesting view all the same. OkBye.

[quote author=IyfeNamikaze post=134891642][/quote]Putin putting a distance between himself and Covid. That is the man you think is suicidal. The Europeans you call soft, we saw many of their leaders photographed with people during the pandemic and none like this. There's noise. Then there's substance.

JuanDeDios:
Putin putting a distance between himself and Covid. That is the man you think is suicidal. The Europeans you call soft, we saw many of their leaders photographed with people during the pandemic and none like this. There's noise. Then there's substance.

This picture means nothing, isolating yourself from COVID is a smart thing to do. No one is saying that Putin is suicidal but he will not go down without a fight, and a cornered mouse is the most dangerous, espresso a cornered mouse with access to nuclear launch codes. Why do you think Biden restricted Ukraine from firing their US made missiles deep into Russia? Why have they not put a boot in Ukraine all these while like they did in Iraq and Afghanistan? That's because cornering Putin might lead to a nuclear fallout