₦airaland Forum

malali:
Tinubu’s grandstanding infrastructure obsession has all the markings of another debt-fueled disaster in the making. With oil crashing into the low $60s per barrel ( far below Nigeria’s budget breakeven) the only logical question is: who funds his dreams? His answer appears dangerously obvious ,more loans, higher interests, and a financial dependence on creditors who will eventually dictate Nigeria’s policies.

What Tinubu is building are not assets that generate future revenue or foreign exchange, they are legacy projects for ribbon-cutting ceremonies. Railways that cannot pay for themselves, roads without tolling strategy, power projects without market reforms. This is not visionary economics , it’s political optics borrowed at premium rates.

Nigeria is staring down a future of ballooning debt servicing costs, currency devaluation pressures, and even more taxes squeezed from an already battered population. Without structural reforms, productivity expansion, or genuine export capacity,

Tinubu’s current path feels like a fast-track to fiscal captivity.

malali:
While the media distracts with Natasha vs Akpabio drama, Nigeria is on the verge of economic self-destruction.

🔹 2025 Budget: $36.6 billion
🔹 Oil Production Cost: $45/barrel
🔹 Budget Based On: $80/barrel
🔹 Current Oil Price: ~$60/barrel
🔹 Net Profit: Only $15/barrel → ~$8.2 billion/year

Nigeria needs $28 billion more to balance the budget.
But with falling oil prices and zero viable exports, who will lend Tinubu more money?
No lender wants to throw cash at a country that’s bleeding revenue.

To stay afloat, Tinubu is mortgaging Nigeria’s future oil—essentially collateralizing national assets.

This isn’t leadership.
This is liquidation.

Reference:
I doubt that. Projections are rife of a looming global economic recession even if the wars end just as suddenly as they started.

The reason being that the tariff wars are about the fundamental structure of the global economy today which essentially rides on American consumerism, the American economy and more precisely the phantom of the elastic appetite for American debt.

And as long as China refuses to take on that role of an equal partner in liberal consumption and debt then table agreements will not return the global economy to the status quo.

The truth is that the Trump government has opened the eyes of the world and of Americans to what it feels are unfair trade practices and many will not return to the party in the long term, simple, even if a new government is elected tomorrow.

Every global economic gear shift comes with a temporary loss of power. The big unknown around the coming recession will be for how long.

The trade war may be Trump initiated and led but the issues are real and fundamental and few have been able to answer the simple question. Where is America getting all the money to buy from the rest of the world when it is earning less and less due to unfair trade.

Vision101:
Was the budget balanced abi nitio?

malali:
Tinubu’s grandstanding infrastructure obsession has all the markings of another debt-fueled disaster in the making. With oil crashing into the low $60s per barrel ( far below Nigeria’s budget breakeven) the only logical question is: who funds his dreams? His answer appears dangerously obvious ,more loans, higher interests, and a financial dependence on creditors who will eventually dictate Nigeria’s policies. It's only in Nigeria that the cost of raw materials will be falling yet the price of the finished product will keep rising.

What Tinubu is building are not assets that generate future revenue or foreign exchange, they are legacy projects for ribbon-cutting ceremonies. Railways that cannot pay for themselves, roads without tolling strategy, power projects without market reforms. This is not visionary economics , it’s political optics borrowed at premium rates.

Nigeria is staring down a future of ballooning debt servicing costs, currency devaluation pressures, and even more taxes squeezed from an already battered population. Without structural reforms, productivity expansion, or genuine export capacity,

Tinubu’s current path feels like a fast-track to fiscal captivity.

malali:

You tell us. Are you one of those who only asks questions ?
Educate us. Tell us what you might know that we dont.
Abi you get boil for mouth ?

Vision101:
When people talk so much about things that they don't know in faceless forums the best way to make fun of them is to sarcastically ask questions.

malali:
Most ignorant people hide behind sarcasm.....till you call them out, then the ignorance is made obvious
Nothing new.

Vision101:
Certainly for a long time Nigerian national budget has not been a balanced budget. I will like to be corrected with proofs. No further reply without proof.

malali:
No budget is 100% balanced, there is either a deficit or a surplus, in most cases.
There is usually an uproar when this becomes more than expected as we are now anticipating a crippling deficit
Thats why its not safe to assume people you interact with online have "basic" understanding.

Thank God i asked you to talk. You would have hidden all that ignorance behind "sarcasm"

malali:
I am not even opposition. If you understand tax reforms, you will know that taxes can only be produced as a result of sales and circulating money in the economy. If oil prices fall it will depress the whole economy and then there will be less tax to collect. Tax reform doesnt happen in isolation its very much dependent on a robust economy.

You are telling me Tinubu has inflated the tires of the car. I am telling you there is no petrol fro the car to move. Does it matter if the car's tire has air ? How long can you push the car ? you want to push from Abuja to Lagos ? You still need petrol for us to know that you did a good job inflating the tires !!!