₦airaland Forum

Lol...

Op... before you roll out the drums in praise for bat, you need to understand a couple of basics...

1. GDPs, real or nominal, are always benchmarked against the dollar which is like the SI unit for currency evaluation.

2. The purchasing power, benchmarked against specific periods, is the real determinant of if the economic condition of the general populace of a country is improving or not...

Now, for the first basic, I believe the OP has been properly schooled. It is clearly evident that the GDP has drastically reduced in REAL terms when properly benchmarked against the dollar.

On the second basic, the question is, what is the purchasing power today, compared to say 2014, just before the APC took over?

As much as apc apologist hate to 'hear' it, prices of goods and services remains a measure of determining the increase or decrease in purchasing power.

For instance, in 2014, N18,000 would get:

2 bags of rice with change @ N8000 per bag

Or 90kg of cooking gas @ N200 per kg

Or 12 bags of cement @ N1500 per bag

Or 72 tubers of yam @ N250 per tuber

Or 30 crates of eggs @ N600 per crate

Or 3 bags (50kg) of NPK @ N6000 per bag...

Today, N70,000 gets you

0.7 bag of rice @ N90,000 per bag

Or 46.6kg of cooking gas @ N1500 per kg

Or 7.7 bags of cement @ N9000 per bag

Or 23.3 tubers of yam @ N3000 per tuber

Or 11 crates of eggs @ N6000 per crate

Or 1.5 bags (50kg) of NPK @ N45000 per bag...

So OP... can you honestly say the economy is improving for the benefit of the masses?

Na so una wan take rule with propaganda?,

LegendHero:
That is a factor of the population. It is dependent on the dollar conversion. You will be wasting your time focusing on that.

If I increase the Dollar figure of GDP today, per capital income increase if your population growth remain fairly static.

RenaissanceGuy:
Where did you ever see a country "up-value" their currency, aside when market forces prop up the currency against the dollar?? Your original post was without logic, so just accept it.

What do you mean up-value? I am using sattire to play the same doumbooo you played in your post.

LegendHero:
What do you mean up-value? I am using sattire to play the same doumbooo you played in your post.

Of course i knew you were satirical, but it still didn't make sense. How would you say that naira didn't really lose value, when prices of commodities have skyrocketed by as much as 400%?? Even countries such as UK and Kuwait whose currencies are more valuable than the US dollar, they still need to convert their GDP to dollar, for them to know the true state of their GDP in comparison to other countries' GDP. So why should Nigeria rely on paperweight naira to say its GDP has gone up??


Edited.

LegendHero:
Maybe you don’t know the meaning of “shrink”. The real GDP is growing at rate of averagely 2% per year in that chart up there. You can say the growth rate is slow, but the GDP is growing:

Mind you, Jonathan was only able to get that 2013 figure because he rebased the GDP. Jonathan rebased our GDP and increased it by over 89%. That was how we overtook South Africa.

Tinubu will rebased our GDP GDP soon too, if we give an 87% increase like Jonathan did, we will overtake the rest of the African countries as the highest in Africa.

That's not correct. A 2% growth rate will give over N80trn. This is 10 years were talking about. The growth rate is less than 2% and if you factor in the interest rate you'll realise there's almost no growth at all.
The nominal GDP shows a massive distortion compared to the real GDP as you can see. That alone tells you how the economy has fared inflation wise from 2014 to 2024. The inflation rate never exceeded 40% officially meanwhile that drop between real and nominal is over 100%
Learn to read beyond the numbers
But NBS promised to release the rebased figures by ending of January along with the rebased CPI. This is April ending and nothing has been released which is why IMF and WB have criticised this regime's handling of Statistics.
You make it sound like rebasing is a cheat mode. Rebasing has to be verified. Even the cpi they released in January was condemned and now they've upped it to 24%. You can't rebase in isolation dear lad. It still needs to be verified

ivandragon:
Lol...

Op... before you roll out the drums in praise for bat, you need to understand a couple of basics...

1. GDPs, real or nominal, are always benchmarked against the dollar which is like the SI unit for currency evaluation.

2. The purchasing power, benchmarked against specific periods, is the real determinant of if the economic condition of the general populace of a country is improving or not...

Now, for the first basic, I believe the OP has been properly schooled. It is clearly evident that the GDP has drastically reduced in REAL terms when properly benchmarked against the dollar.

On the second basic, the question is, what is the purchasing power today, compared to say 2014, just before the APC took over?

As much as apc apologist hate to 'hear' it, prices of goods and services remains a measure of determining the increase or decrease in purchasing power.

For instance, in 2014, N18,000 would get:

2 bags of rice with change @ N8000 per bag

Or 90kg of cooking gas @ N200 per kg

Or 12 bags of cement @ N1500 per bag

Or 72 tubers of yam @ N250 per tuber

Or 30 crates of eggs @ N600 per crate

Or 3 bags (50kg) of NPK @ N6000 per bag...

Today, N70,000 gets you

0.7 bag of rice @ N90,000 per bag

Or 46.6kg of cooking gas @ N1500 per kg

Or 7.7 bags of cement @ N9000 per bag

Or 23.3 tubers of yam @ N3000 per tuber

Or 11 crates of eggs @ N6000 per crate

Or 1.5 bags (50kg) of NPK @ N45000 per bag...

So OP... can you honestly say the economy is improving for the benefit of the masses?

No need to analyze too much economics here again. @LegendHero, @helinus and all.
I think the bolded part has summarize where we are in this country, so what is it that we are defending when the people are worse even with the so call minimum wage increase.

People purchasing power has been completely wiped off and you are still praising them for what exactly.

I feel like crying, how can someone survive earning 70k in this country.

jmoore:
1 dollar = 185 naira in 2014.

1 dollar = 1,600 naira in 2024.



Compare GDP in USD


- Nominal GDP (USD):
- 2014: 481.3 billion USD
- 2024: 168.3 billion USD
→ Decrease of ~65% in dollar terms due to naira depreciation.

- Real GDP (USD):
- 2014: 363.0 billion USD
- 2024: 49.6 billion USD
→ Decrease of ~86% in dollar terms.

Compare Real GDP in Naira (Inflation-Adjusted)
Since real GDP accounts for inflation, let's compare the naira value of real GDP:
- 2014:67.15 trillion NGN
- 2024:79.29 trillion NGN
→ Growth of ~18% over 10 years (~1.7% annual growth)

Did GDP Improve?
In USD terms:No, both nominal and real GDP declined sharply due to the naira's depreciation.

In Naira terms (real GDP):Yes, but only slightly (~18% over 10 years, indicating weak economic growth).

The naira's depreciation (from 185 to 1,600 per USD) wiped out GDP gains in dollar terms, reducing Nigeria's economic size internationally.


Nigeria's economy grew slightly in real terms (in naira), but the severe currency depreciation made the country much poorer in dollar terms. Thus, overall GDP did not improve meaningfully when considering purchasing power and international comparisons.


It's not about copying and pasting for propaganda. Can you interpret what you are copying?

This is absolute BS.

Stay with naira - in real terms, 67T in 2014 to 79T in 2024 is ~2% annual CAGR growth rate.

Conversion to USD introduces forex - and you decide - do you prop the naira with borrowed funds (which was, is and will always remain a bad idea) and achieve a "higher GDP"? Or do you, as an economic move float it and let it find its true equilibrium value?.

In the long run, floating the exchange rate will prove to be the absolute right move. If the true value is N1500, so be it. No need to sugarcoat it or prop it down to N500. What Naira needs is stability so investors can plan. Too much volatility is just risk investors are not willing to deal with (or will make you pay a high price for)

ivandragon:
Lol...

Op... before you roll out the drums in praise for bat, you need to understand a couple of basics...

1. GDPs, real or nominal, are always benchmarked against the dollar which is like the SI unit for currency evaluation.

2. The purchasing power, benchmarked against specific periods, is the real determinant of if the economic condition of the general populace of a country is improving or not...

Now, for the first basic, I believe the OP has been properly schooled. It is clearly evident that the GDP has drastically reduced in REAL terms when properly benchmarked against the dollar.

On the second basic, the question is, what is the purchasing power today, compared to say 2014, just before the APC took over?

As much as apc apologist hate to 'hear' it, prices of goods and services remains a measure of determining the increase or decrease in purchasing power.

For instance, in 2014, N18,000 would get:

2 bags of rice with change @ N8000 per bag

Or 90kg of cooking gas @ N200 per kg

Or 12 bags of cement @ N1500 per bag

Or 72 tubers of yam @ N250 per tuber

Or 30 crates of eggs @ N600 per crate

Or 3 bags (50kg) of NPK @ N6000 per bag...

Today, N70,000 gets you

0.7 bag of rice @ N90,000 per bag

Or 46.6kg of cooking gas @ N1500 per kg

Or 7.7 bags of cement @ N9000 per bag

Or 23.3 tubers of yam @ N3000 per tuber

Or 11 crates of eggs @ N6000 per crate

Or 1.5 bags (50kg) of NPK @ N45000 per bag...

So OP... can you honestly say the economy is improving for the benefit of the masses?

Why not take this back to 1994? When you could buy a used car with under N10k? Or 1984 when the annual minimum wage salary was under N6k?

First, N18k in 2014 is not N18k today. Needs to be adjusted for inflation.

Secondly, let market forces help nigeria truly find what works. All this artificial support left and right has done more damage. For instance, is the true value of a crate of eggs N6k? I don't know but let the market determine that.

We need constant (not necessarily cheap but constant) power supply. Then give me security (in the south east and north). Then maybe devolve more power to the states (or regions as most states today are not viable) and watch regional competition, true market forces drive true growth.

All these orishi orishi sentimental stuff won't cut it for nigeria

Nicklee:
Why not take this back to 1994? When you could buy a used car with under N10k? Or 1984 when the annual minimum wage salary was under N6k?

First, N18k in 2014 is not N18k today. Needs to be adjusted for inflation.

Secondly, let market forces help nigeria truly find what works. All this artificial support left and right has done more damage. For instance, is the true value of a crate of eggs N6k? I don't know but let the market determine that.

We need constant (not necessarily cheap but constant) power supply. Then give me security (in the south east and north). Then maybe devolve more power to the states (or regions as most states today are not viable) and watch regional competition, true market forces drive true growth.

All these orishi orishi sentimental stuff won't cut it for nigeria

Some of you are masquerading your slavish support for incompetence as objectivity.

Read the subject matter of the thread. It clearly compared 2014 to 2024, so what is out of place with my own use of 2014 for analysis?

Minimum wage in 1984 was under N200... and I had previously done an analysis showing that the purchasing power of Nigerians steadily improved from 2001 - 2014 and was better than the mid-80s to 1999. And the reverse has been the case since 2016.

No country let's market forces fully determine prices for essential goods and services, not even the US or China. There are always measures put in place to reduce the negative impacts of free market, something you and bat seem not to understand how to manage.

I agree fully with your fourth statement which is the only sense you made.

ivandragon:
Some of you are masquerading your slavish support for incompetence as objectivity.

Read the subject matter of the thread. It clearly compared 2014 to 2024, so what is out of place with my own use of 2014 for analysis?

Minimum wage in 1984 was under N200... and I had previously done an analysis showing that the purchasing power of Nigerians steadily improved from 2001 - 2014 and was better than the mid-80s to 1999. And the reverse has been the case since 2016.

No country let's market forces fully determine prices for essential goods and services, not even the US or China. There are always measures put in place to reduce the negative impacts of free market, something you and bat seem not to understand how to manage.

I agree fully with your fourth statement which is the only sense you made.

Lol @ slavish support for incompetence.

Your argument was that of deterioration in purchasing power. Go ahead and show 1984 through 2014 - let's see.

There were very bold moves that drove the economic expansions we saw with Obsanjo administration. The big ones being the telecoms revolution, banking revolution and large scale privatization. Those have pushed us as far as they can. And now what?

Sentiments aside (if you can), now what? Minimum wage is a contraption of the government. Tinubu could have raised it to N150k, still afford to pay that and immediately negate everything you posted up there.

Back to the Now what?
(1) float the naira - period. Not enough resources to continue to prop it plus stability is better.
(2) take out subsidies. Short term pains, long term gains
(3) fix power. Allowing states generate, distribute and regulate is a step in the right direction.
(4) fix insecurity - which may only be possible via the extremely tough decision of restructuring and devolving power to the regions

I'm not a Tinubu apologist. My preferred candidate didn't even make it past the primaries. But I will give it to Tinubu- he's been making these very tough calls that require grit. I'm only hoping he takes it a notch higher. But then, there are the primal concerns like the bs you posted up here about cost of eggs, etc. Distracts from what really needs to be done to fix the country. When the country finally starts to work, N6k eggs wouldn't matter much, cos people can work, generate N2m per month of economic value, get paid N1m and afford the darn eggs.

Nicklee:
This is absolute BS.

Stay with naira - in real terms, 67T in 2014 to 79T in 2024 is ~2% annual CAGR growth rate.

Conversion to USD introduces forex - and you decide - do you prop the naira with borrowed funds (which was, is and will always remain a bad idea) and achieve a "higher GDP"? Or do you, as an economic move float it and let it find its true equilibrium value?.

In the long run, floating the exchange rate will prove to be the absolute right move. If the true value is N1500, so be it. No need to sugarcoat it or prop it down to N500. What Naira needs is stability so investors can plan. Too much volatility is just risk investors are not willing to deal with (or will make you pay a high price for)

All these praisesingers. When did you guys come to the reality that propping the naira is a bad idea?

Every country adjusts its currency to ensure consumption is optimum and real income is able to drive demand. All this claim of floating is the right move is hogwash. The same govt propped the naira with almost $1bn in March and they are still doing so. In fact, they have been propping the parallel rate!

Floating the naira does not stop speculation or volatility. That's why the naira hit 1800 when it was first floated until common sense dictated that there's a need to regulate the largely opaque parallel market.

There's no crime in holding up the value of the naira of it works for the economy. Stop repeating jargon just to defend politicians

Have you checked the distortion between real and nominal GDP?

Nicklee:
Lol @ slavish support for incompetence.

Your argument was that of deterioration in purchasing power. Go ahead and show 1984 through 2014 - let's see.

There were very bold moves that drove the economic expansions we saw with Obsanjo administration. The big ones being the telecoms revolution, banking revolution and large scale privatization. Those have pushed us as far as they can. And now what?

Sentiments aside (if you can), now what? Minimum wage is a contraption of the government. Tinubu could have raised it to N150k, still afford to pay that and immediately negate everything you posted up there.

Back to the Now what?
(1) float the naira - period. Not enough resources to continue to prop it plus stability is better.
(2) take out subsidies. Short term pains, long term gains
(3) fix power. Allowing states generate, distribute and regulate is a step in the right direction.
(4) fix insecurity - which may only be possible via the extremely tough decision of restructuring and devolving power to the regions

I'm not a Tinubu apologist. My preferred candidate didn't even make it past the primaries. But I will give it to Tinubu- he's been making these very tough calls that require grit. I'm only hoping he takes it a notch higher. But then, there are the primal concerns like the bs you posted up here about cost of eggs, etc. Distracts from what really needs to be done to fix the country. When the country finally starts to work, N6k eggs wouldn't matter much, cos people can work, generate N2m per month of economic value, get paid N1m and afford the darn eggs.

You can do your own research and reach your own conclusions.

You talk about floating the naira and removing subsidies as if they are an end in themselves.

The question you should be asking is how do these policies affect the generality of the populace? Have these policies improved the lot of the masses?

Except you want to be 'funny', it is glaring that the socio-economic situation of the masses is deteriorating rapidly, so how can you praise reforms that cause more harm than good for the people?

Then you now ask, what sacrifices have those in power made? You support removal of subsidies, but those who make the policies are fully subsidising thier own lifestyle. Don't you see the contradiction?

The very policies you so support are not applicable to those who are making the policies and you somehow think it is a good thing?

Your 'hope' about the country working is good, but where is the evidence that it is beginning to turn around positively for the masses?

Regardless of whom is in power, such people should be held accountable, superficial rethorics won't cut it any more.

P.s.
Why do some of you get antsy when people complain of the incompetence of government? Let the masses speak up. If you have bettered your socio-economic condition, good for you. Those in power today spoke about bad governance, let others air thier views.