₦airaland Forum

Supporters of Atiku Abubakar often argue that Southern presidents (Obasanjo and Jonathan) served 13 years, Northerners (Yaradua and Buhari) 10, and with incumbent Tinubu’s term ending in 2027, the South’s total would reach 17 years, justifying a northward power shift in 2027. Similarly, some supporters of Peter Obi claim that for equity, the presidency should be streamlined to the South, specifically, Southeast, as no Igbo has been president since 1999. Both arguments are flawed and misleading.

Political parties nominate candidates based on their internal agreements, and one party’s arrangement does not bind another, regardless of election outcomes.

In 1999, PDP fielded Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (Yoruba, South) and won, while APP chose Chief Olu Falae (Yoruba, South), who lost.

In 2003, PDP retained Obasanjo (Yoruba, South), while ANPP (formerly APP) fielded General Muhammadu Buhari (Fulani, North), and APGA selected Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu (Igbo, South).

In 2006, PDP, having fielded Southern candidates previously, agreed to rotate its presidential ticket between North and South, selecting Governor Umaru Musa Yaradua (Fulani, North) for 2007. ANPP retained Buhari (Fulani, North), AC chose Vice President Atiku Abubakar (Fulani, North), APGA kept Ojukwu (Igbo, South), DPP nominated Governor Atahiru Bafarawa (Hausa, North), and PPA fielded Governor Orji Uzor Kalu (Igbo, South). Clearly, PDP’s North-South rotation applied only to itself and never applied to other parties.

In 2011, PDP fielded incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan (Ijaw, South), who succeeded the late Yaradua, while ANPP chose Governor Ibrahim Shekarau (Hausa, North), ACN picked Mallam Nuhu Ribadu (Fulani, North), and CPC selected Buhari (Fulani, North).

Before 2015, PDP’s refusal to honor its 2006 rotation agreement by re-nominating Jonathan (Ijaw, South) sparked a crisis, leading to defections by former VP Atiku (Fulani, North), four Northern governors, one Southern governor, the House Speaker, and several legislators. The newly formed APC, a merger of ACN, CPC, and ANPP, chose Buhari (Fulani, North), who defeated the candidate of PDP.

In 2019, PDP corrected its course by fielding Atiku Abubakar (Fulani, North) per its 2006 agreement, while APC re-nominated Buhari (Fulani, North).

In 2022, APC adopted a North-South rotation agreement, ceding its 2023 ticket to the South and fielding Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (Yoruba, South). PDP opened its ticket, and Atiku (Fulani, North) emerged, sparking controversy as some argued it should have gone South. This led to a fallout, with five governors of the party (four Southern, one Northern) opposing PDP’s candidate. Meanwhile, LP fielded Peter Obi (Igbo, South), and NNPP chose Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso (Hausa, North).

This history shows that arguing for zoning or ethnic-based candidacy, like prioritizing the Southeast for an Igbo president, a Tiv president, or a North-South shift, based on another party’s arrangement or historical representation is baseless and flawed. After all, if other parties had won elections, the story of regional or ethnic representation would have been different.

Ahead of the next election, if PDP honors its 2006 agreement, its 2027 candidate must be Southern. If APC respects its 2022 deal, its candidate should also be Southern. Other parties, including newly formed ones, are not bound by zoning arrangements they did not agree to.

Presidential tickets are governed by party-specific agreements, not universal mandates or ethnic quotas. Had different parties won past elections, the regional and ethnic narrative would be entirely different, rendering tallies of past presidencies or ethnic representation irrelevant to future contests.

jmoore:
In all you have written, just know that southeast have decided they will never vote for PDP again until they present an Igbo man as the presidential candidate.

TonyeBarcanista:
That is not my problem. Every eligible voters, irrespective to ethnic or political affiliation, is entitled to his preference.

TonyeBarcanista:
'Tonye Barcanista

jmoore:
In all you have written, just know that southeast have decided they will never vote for PDP again until they present an Igbo man as the presidential candidate.

TonyeBarcanista:
That is not my problem. Every eligible voters, irrespective to ethnic or political affiliation, is entitled to his preference.

PresidObi:
PDP is dying Tonye, PDP is almost dead. I will advise you to stop romancing a dead body, rather start finding your way to APC like you once did. You would have made it a state house of Assembly member by now.

TonyeBarcanista:
Be more worried about your party and your political aspirations (if any). I can't remember complaining to you or anyone

PresidObi:
No Tonye, we are not desperate about the presidency. It is people like you who carry the issue on your head like gala. Without you opening threads like this to complain, who gives a damn what they are doing. Be more concerned about your own survival in the midst of the directionless maladministration.

This history shows that arguing for zoning or ethnic-based candidacy, like prioritizing the Southeast for an Igbo president, a Tiv president, or a North-South shift, based on another party’s arrangement or historical representation is baseless and flawed. After all, if other parties had won elections, the story of regional or ethnic representation would have been different.

TonyeBarcanista:
I wrote a piece and didn't mention your name. You commented because it interests you. Face the topic and stop dragging me to your trolling. Whoever is desperate for the presidency is not my concern. At the end of the day, the electorates will decide.

ClearFlair:
Peter Obi seems to be the only politician who cares about Nigerians

jmoore:
In all you have written, just know that southeast have decided they will never vote for PDP again until they present an Igbo man as the presidential candidate.

jmoore:
In all you have written, just know that southeast have decided they will never vote for PDP again until they present an Igbo man as the presidential candidate.

jmoore:
In all you have written, just know that southeast have decided they will never vote for PDP again until they present an Igbo man as the presidential candidate.

TonyeBarcanista:
'Tonye Barcanista

nairalanda1:
So, for the next election, it has to be a Southern candidate for both parties as you say..

But there is the risk that PDP with a southern candidate could win in 2027, and then the next issue is, he or she would wanna run in 2031....when it would be the north turn.

I hate to say this, but we mayhaps should have made rotational presidiency part of our laws.....with six year single terms.

TonyeBarcanista:
'Tonye Barcanista
Ahead of the next election, if PDP honors its 2006 agreement, its 2027 candidate must be Southern. If APC respects its 2022 deal, its candidate should also be Southern. Other parties, including newly formed ones, are not bound by zoning arrangements they did not agree to.

AK481:
In 1999 why were there only yoruba candidates?