₦airaland Forum

Some governors elected on the platforms of opposition parties and reported to be bound for the All Progressives Congress may have ditched the plan.

Sunday PUNCH gathered that this might not be unconnected to moves by parties to stop the defections of their chieftains to the ruling APC, including changing political dynamics.

The recent defection of Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, the state Deputy Governor, Monday Onyeme, and many elected state officials from the Peoples Democratic Party to the APC sent shockwaves through the political landscape.

Oborevwori’s predecessor and the PDP’s 2023 vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa, also joined the defection train.

The National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, had revealed that several opposition governors would soon join the party.

Ganduje, while receiving some leaders of the New Nigeria Peoples Party in Kano State into the APC, led by the senator representing Kano South, Kawu Ismailia, boasted that the defections of Oborevwori and Okowa were just the beginning, adding that more opposition leaders were on their way to the party.

Mbah, Lawal, Mutfwang, others not defecting

However, some of the governors said to be receiving overtures from the ruling party and considering joining the defection train may have changed their plans.

Governors Peter Mbah (Enugu), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), and Ademola Adeleke (Osun) are among those speculated to be on their way to the ruling APC.

Sunday PUNCH gathered that Mbah might have shelved his plan following the influx of erstwhile Labour Party members into the PDP in the state.

According to close sources, Mbah had initially planned to defect to the APC to secure a second term, especially if Chief Chijioke Edeoga, the LP candidate many residents believed won the 2023 governorship election, decided to contest again.

However, recent developments may have altered the political landscape.

With Edeoga, who is considered a key political force in Enugu in his party, and wide support from the Enugu North Senatorial District within the PDP, Mbah’s second term is now seen as assured.

Sources close to the governor revealed that the LP’s gains in the 2023 general elections were poorly managed due to internal crises, which led to the party’s current disarray.

“The governor has consolidated power, and the LP’s structure has virtually collapsed. The only thing that may threaten Mbah’s second term is if he fails to honour agreed promises and the sharing of political positions,” a source said.

Another source added that with the current influx of LP members into the PDP, Mbah’s second term was “certainly guaranteed.”

The source believed Mbah would not “make the mistake of failing to keep promises or properly allocate political positions” which could threaten his second-term bid.

Governor Lawal of Zamfara said he would remain in the PDP, where he was elected as the fifth civilian governor of his state.

Speaking to Sunday PUNCH, the Special Assistant to the Governor on Media and Communications, Mustafa Kaura, said Lawal had made it clear that he would not abandon the party that gave him the ticket to contest and win the 2023 governorship election.

Kaura maintained that the governor had also stated that he would not betray the electorate who voted him into power under the PDP.

He said, “Governor Dauda Lawal will remain in the PDP and has no intention of joining any other party. He is a true believer who trusts in God and believes that whatever is destined to happen will happen, regardless of the political party he belongs to.”

A PDP chieftain in Plateau State, Dachung Bagos, told Sunday PUNCH that the state governor, Mutfwang, would not defect to the APC.

Bagos, a close ally of the governor and former House of Representatives member, cited ideological differences between Mutfwang and the APC as the governor’s reason.

“The ideology of Governor Mutfwang does not align with that of the APC,” Bagos said.

Also, Abia State Governor, Otti, ruled out the possibility of defecting to the ruling APC from the Labour Party.

He is the only LP governor among the 36 states of the federation.

Speaking on Arise TV’s breakfast programme, The Morning Show, Otti said the situation in his state did not warrant such a move.

He insisted that he had no compelling reason to abandon the party under which he came to power in 2023.

“My party is not on shaky ground. Everybody must not be in the APC. This is democracy,” he said.

He noted that remaining in opposition based on conviction had its merits and could yield bold political dividends in the future.

To buttress his point, he cited President Bola Tinubu, who consistently played opposition politics in the Alliance for Democracy, Action Congress of Nigeria, and finally the APC, which eventually brought him to the presidency.

While stating that the current situation did not warrant dumping the LP “through blackmail,” Otti noted that “things can change tomorrow,” and he would be wherever “God wants me to be.”

Addressing the crisis in the party, Otti said, “Today, we have fought and reclaimed the Labour Party,” adding that the party, which brought him to power, remains strong and is backed by a functional National Working Committee.

Governor Adeleke of Osun State, while addressing members of the PDP during a strategic meeting, rejected claims of his potential defection to the APC.

The governor declared his loyalty to the PDP, describing reports of his defection as fake news.

“My people, party elders and chiefs, I declare before you today that I am not defecting to the APC or any other political party. I remain in the PDP. Ignore any fake news,” he said.

Opposition challenges Tinubu

Reacting to the defection of some major opposition members, the National Publicity Secretary of the NNPP, Ladipo Johnson, said the moves were driven by fear, self-preservation and political survival.

Johnson maintained that the defections would not guarantee victory for Tinubu in the 2027 general elections, especially if economic hardship and insecurity persisted across the country.

He said, “It is wishful thinking for the APC and Tinubu to think they can turn Nigeria into a one-party state. I don’t believe that can happen in Nigeria, even if they want to. If the economy does not improve, if insecurity does not reduce, then they (APC and Tinubu) will find that 2027 will be tougher than they can ever imagine. Even if they have 30 governors in their party, Nigerians are already pushed to the wall, and they will react and vote the APC out. There is no magic to it. They talk as if the man (Tinubu) is a magician. There’s no magic to it.”

The National Publicity Secretary of LP, Obiora Ifoh, said opposition parties would continue to remain relevant ahead of the 2027 general election.

Ifoh equally dismissed the fear that the country might be sliding into a one-party state, saying the defections only reflected the weakness of political institutions and the self-serving interests of some politicians.

He insisted that the defections would not guarantee victory for the APC in 2027.

The National Chairman of Because Of Our Tomorrow Party, Sonny Adenuga, however, criticised the leadership of the PDP, saying the party’s internal crisis and lack of direction were paving the way for Tinubu’s possible re-election.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, Adenuga said the defection trend reflected deep-rooted problems in the opposition.

He said, “President Tinubu appears politically strong today, not necessarily because of exceptional performance, but largely because the opposition, particularly the PDP, has failed to provide a credible alternative.

“There is no unity or clear purpose. Many of their (PDP) governors are even backing Tinubu secretly. If we continue like this, the APC will keep dominating.”

Adenuga, however, expressed hope that the defections could eventually lead to the emergence of a new political force.

He said, “Let everyone who is not serious move to the APC. That will clear the space for a fresh political movement with real ideology and focus before 2027.”

In the same vein, the National Secretary of the SDP, Dr Olu Agunloye, said the wave of defections showed that the PDP was gradually merging with the APC, stating that both parties had failed to deliver good governance.

“Nigeria is not sliding into a one-party state. It is fast becoming a two-party state of the APC and the SDP. We know that the APC and PDP have been indistinguishable in their resolve to provide bad governance and unsustainable development,” Agunloye said.

Agunloye called for a more united front of opposition parties, arguing that only a formidable coalition of opposition parties could defeat the APC.

helinues:
No one will see the clear road and enter bush now

AMINDA:
The governors are beginning to develop cold feet having gauged the mood of Nigerians. Nigerians could be many things but certainly not cowards. Tinubu cannot strong-arm Nigerians to vote him by merely trying to make the country a one-party state. The people will rather find any other alternative than to be cowered to vote Tinubu. Governors like Sheriff only decamped to neutralize Omo-Agege and provide soft-landing for Okowa, nothing more. Tinubu will struggle to build momentum for his re-election, especially in the North. His lacklustre reception in Katsina points to that. He has also lost vocal Northerners like Elrufai that rallied the North for him in 2023.

By 2027, Obi will best Tinubu in the South no matter the number of Southern governors that decamp to the APC. With a strong Northern Vice, Obi also has the potential to do well in the North. He will get the votes of Northerners who believe that 2027 is still the turn of the South. Tinubu isn't the face of the Southern candidacy, Obi is.

On the other hand, Atiku will contest with an equally popular Vice from the Southsouth and will sweep the Northeast and much of the Northwest votes. This will be even worse if Tinubu goes ahead to replace Shettima with Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso on the other hand, will lose the support of most of his supporters because Northerners are genuinely angry with the Tinubu hunger administration. At best, he can only contribute 1 million votes to Tinubu and only in Kano. Tinubu still has a deficit of 4.6 million potential Northern votes to make up for. Muslim-muslim ticket was his only saving grace in 2023 but it won't offer any advantage in 2027. Unlike previous elections that were largely driven by region and religion, 2027 will be driven by performance and Tinubu's maladministration puts him at a disadvantage.

WhizdomXX:
If Obi and Atiku contests separately, Tinubu wins again. QED.

ogododo:
https://punchng.com/opposition-govs-reconsider-move-to-apc/

ogododo:
https://punchng.com/opposition-govs-reconsider-move-to-apc/

WhizdomXX:
If Obi and Atiku contests separately, Tinubu wins again. QED.

AMINDA:
With which votes? Northern votes? Obi will definitely win the South and this time, a lot of Northerners that voted Tinubu in the North will now vote Atiku. In a 3-horse race, Tinubu will lose.

WhizdomXX:
If Obi and Atiku contests separately, Tinubu wins again. QED.

anonimi:
2023: PDP and politics of healing Wike’s self-inflicted injury

Then, the race began in earnest for three years now, reaching a frenzy with the works of the two PDP committees on zoning. The first was the Gov Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi committee on the zoning of the PDP party offices. The Ugwuanyi committee quickly told the world the committee’s assignment did not cover zoning the office of the president. Though this was true, the question is: why didn’t the Ugwuanyi committee zone the PDP chairmanship to the North without aligning it to the divide that would produce the PDP presidential flag-bearer? The second committee headed by Gov Samuel Ortom of Benue state was specifically on the zoning of the presidential ticket and, with the votes of the representatives of all the 17 Southern states without any exception, the Committee unanimously recommended throwing open the PDP presidential ticket, which the PDP NEC simply upheld.

One thing irrefutably stands out – Wike shot himself in the leg. Here was a man who had an overarching influence on both committees but could not insist that the ticket be zoned South. Many had wondered why? The reason is also relatively in plain sight: the Southeast factor. As the clamour for zoning of the presidential ticket of the PDP to South reached its crescendo, many had pointed out the fact that though the PDP Constitution had prescribed zoning of the office of the president to be between North and South since the South-west and South-south had taken their turns in producing the president and the vice in this current dispensation in the persons of Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, zoning this time around, should not just be to the South but the Southeast.

Atiku Abubakar went a step further by offering to step down from the race if it would be agreed that the touted zoning to the South would mean micro-zoning to the Southeast. Wike and the rest could not take the Atiku challenge maybe because Atiku would likely back Peter Obi, who was his vice-presidential running mate in 2019 and an ally. The prospects of Peter Obi picking the ticket if PDP zoned South was so real compelling Wike to go for an open contest, believing he could pick it up ahead of Atiku, Tambuwal and Bala Mohammed, given his large war chest.

https://www.thecable.ng/2023-pdp-and-politics-of-healing-wikes-self-inflicted-injury/amp

AMINDA:
The governors are beginning to develop cold feet having gauged the mood of Nigerians. Nigerians could be many things but certainly not cowards. Tinubu cannot strong-arm Nigerians to vote him by merely trying to make the country a one-party state. The people will rather find any other alternative than to be cowered to vote Tinubu. Governors like Sheriff only decamped to neutralize Omo-Agege and provide soft-landing for Okowa, nothing more. Tinubu will struggle to build momentum for his re-election, especially in the North. His lacklustre reception in Katsina points to that. He has also lost vocal Northerners like Elrufai that rallied the North for him in 2023.

By 2027, Obi will best Tinubu in the South no matter the number of Southern governors that decamp to the APC. With a strong Northern Vice, Obi also has the potential to do well in the North. He will get the votes of Northerners who believe that 2027 is still the turn of the South. Tinubu isn't the face of the Southern candidacy, Obi is.

On the other hand, Atiku will contest with an equally popular Vice from the Southsouth and will sweep the Northeast and much of the Northwest votes. This will be even worse if Tinubu goes ahead to replace Shettima with Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso on the other hand, will lose the support of most of his supporters because Northerners are genuinely angry with the Tinubu hunger administration. At best, he can only contribute 1 million votes to Tinubu and only in Kano. Tinubu still has a deficit of 4.6 million potential Northern votes to make up for. Muslim-muslim ticket was his only saving grace in 2023 but it won't offer any advantage in 2027. Unlike previous elections that were largely driven by region and religion, 2027 will be driven by performance and Tinubu's maladministration puts him at a disadvantage.