₦airaland Forum

Linzo:
You're right, because I'm not an influencer, and I never claimed to have the ability to sway voters. However, as a citizen deeply rooted in the community, I can confidently report with 95% certainty the mood in the South-South region, given my roots and upbringing here.

Secondly, referring to me as a "boy" might be inaccurate, considering I'm a 33-year-old graduate from one of Nigeria's top federal universities, with excellent grades. I'm not a schoolboy; I've earned my credentials.

Let's see how your PBAT will perform outside the South-West, even with potential rigging - of course we're not expecting a fair election, but even with manipulation, I doubt he'll make significant gains beyond his stronghold SW.

Get ready for a significant blow, akin to a hammer strike from the state of Israel to IRAN
!

A 33 year old boy talking like a teenager n u want someone to take u serious

So u don't understand that politicians also have their fan base too?

So u are saying people like kwankwanso n co just have one vote right?

I believe a 33 year old man should already know s meaning of political influence by now, me n u na d same age n I can tell u without emotions that many politicians are grounded in their base n once they give directive to their people they will follow.

No need arguing with u but the question I will like u to ask yourself is that if tinubu can win as an ordinary citizen with Muslim Muslim ticket again Buhari, atiku, Peter obi, Ibo propaganda of hand dey shake, amaechi, osinbajo, aregbesola, internal sabotage within APC, introduction of cashless Policy n fuel scarcity and even a strong PDP n a strong labour party


Tell me if he won't win them as an incumbent with enough powers, divided labour party, divided PDP, divided opposition?


Just face reality n remove emotions


If Tinubu can win as an ordinary citizen with all opposition in d last election, oga he will win come 2027

Linzo:
"No magic can make the APC and Tinubu win any state in the South-South region. I strongly agree that while he may secure the 25% required by law in some states, winning outright is highly unlikely, especially in Delta State where I'm based. If you doubt me, try engaging with your contacts in the region and see what they have to say."

Yes, the governors have defected, but the people on the ground, including their strongest followers, will tell you the same: APC and Tinubu can't even win any local government, especially here in Delta State.

Before you call me names, let me clarify - I'm a Deltan based here in Effurun, by Ogbe Street, behind Hotel de Mark, and I shuttle around the South region on a regular basis.

If you like, believe it or not, APC will lose in 2027 because it has already lost the North, except for Kwara. Please don't mention Benue, because that's a no for PBAT in 2027.

dey play. Only Southeast and Northeast pose problem to Tinubu's reelection. He will do fantastically well in other 4 regions.

favor914:
some people just imagine fallacies, & start running their mouths, which candidate will the south south vote for?

Opposition is already shouting that INEC has openly taken sides, yet some children in disillusion are shouting about things that they are oblivious to.

INEC should just give this jokers the Tanzanian treatment & disqualify Pdp & other vagabond political parties until 2031.

You're banking on INEC to bail you out by disqualifying other parties or frustrating them out. Well, you're mistaken. INEC will likely do its best for APC, no doubt, but times have changed."

So, can you tell which candidate the people of the South-South will vote for? PBAT ? Lol

You'd have to ask your friends here or, at best, come down to conduct a survey.

Don't worry, you people will learn, and you'll learn the hard way.

AMINDA:
Prior to now, Atiku has been largely contesting with Buhari and in 2023, Atiku put up a strong showing in the Northwest but for party sentiments, muslim-muslim ticket and efforts of people like Elrufai that saw Tinubu getting a huge chunk of the votes. Those variables are no longer existing. Mind you, Atiku got 6.9m votes inspite of the clamour for Southern presidency.

In 2027, Atiku will win the Northwest with a large margin and will do a clean sweep of the Northeast, especially if Tinubu goes ahead to drop Shettima. Unlike in 2023, Obi contesting will be a huge disadvantage to Tinubu than Atiku because he would balkanize Southern votes, and neutralize the protest votes of those who believe it's still the turn of the South. Meanwhile, Tinubu is fast losing the North and every vote lost is a net gain for his opposition. Politics is a zero sum game.

Hehehehehe

All of you doing all these permutations, calculations and projections based on polling are yet to understand exactly who it is you’re dealing with here! When his minions brag that he knows how to play Nigerian politics, you think they’re referring to him getting the highest number of actual votes cast!? If the opposition don’t coalesce into one formidable unit and have plans in place to counter all his rigging and vote buying schemes, then just forget it! And don’t bank on the cowed courts coming to the rescue after the deed is done….they’re firmly in his pocket!

Linzo:
You're banking on INEC to bail you out by disqualifying other parties or frustrating them out. Well, you're mistaken. INEC will likely do its best for APC, no doubt, but times have changed."

So, can you tell which candidate the people of the South-South will vote for? PBAT ? Lol

You'd have to ask your friends here or, at best, come down to conduct a survey.

Don't worry, you people will learn, and you'll learn the hard way.

please go into the real world, & stop deceiving yourself on social media, people like yourself that talk all this naivety have never voted, & have no plans of voting.

Just typical empty barrels oblivious to reality.

ukukaegbu:
You are talking about Southsouth, In the SE he will not even get up to 10%

If the 2023 political tension, fragmented voting, 3-horse race (Atiku, Obi, Tinubu), and regional loyalty trends continue into 2027 — and the process is free of manipulation — a hung election leading to a run-off is highly likely.

Tinubu is asking for 25% only in 11 SE/SS Sates!

Coming from someone who wont vote

Linzo:
"No magic can make the APC and Tinubu win any state in the South-South region. I strongly agree that while he may secure the 25% required by law in some states, winning outright is highly unlikely, especially in Delta State where I'm based. If you doubt me, try engaging with your contacts in the region and see what they have to say."

Yes, the governors have defected, but the people on the ground, including their strongest followers, will tell you the same: APC and Tinubu can't even win any local government, especially here in Delta State.

Before you call me names, let me clarify - I'm a Deltan based here in Effurun, by Ogbe Street, behind Hotel de Mark, and I shuttle around the South region on a regular basis.

If you like, believe it or not, APC will lose in 2027 because it has already lost the North, except for Kwara. Please don't mention Benue, because that's a no for PBAT in 2027.

keep decieving yourself. You look like someone who is feverish. Please take your drugs. I don't need to ask where you are from cos it is written over your statement. Knows that the governors and political gladiators are working for vice presidential slot in 2031. You don't know politics.

kedeojo:
keep decieving yourself. You look like someone who is feverish. Please take your drugs. I don't need to ask where you are from cos it is written over your statement. Knows that the governors and political gladiators are working for vice presidential slot in 2031. You don't know politics.

Lol. What are the electorates working for? Their survival. Where were those governors and political gladiators in 2023? Atiku won Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa States and Obi won swept the rest of the Southsouth and Southeast. You better wake up and smell the coffee.

ukukaegbu:
You are talking about Southsouth, In the SE he will not even get up to 10%

south east is inconsequential to apc and they proved it with three consecutive elections. So keep your 3% vote and give it to obi as usual. The loser will be Atiku who as pdp candidate, naturally had won south east until you people decided to vote labour. APC knows we're to get the votes and with political alliance with south south who will produce the next vice president in 2031 and possibly 2039 presidency, many of us will queue behind Tinubu to position ourselves. Bitterness and hatred won't take you people from your region to anywhere.

Putindbutt:
Ok, we don hear you, just like you said in 2023. Brace up for more tears in 2027.

don't mind this small igbo boy. What did they not said even up to supreme court. Let Atiku becomes the so coalition and see how even northerners influential politicians deserted him. Why are they talking about Ameachi. Obi is not in their agenda in the north becos of trust. They will never support him cos they view him as a religious bigot. Southerners except south east will prefer to vote for Tinubu than Atiku. South south is already positioning for vice president in 2031 and president in 2039. South west did it and south knows the game too. All this alliance is not because they love Tinubu as much but positioning with the right caucus to get what we want. Make them continue thier nzogbu nzogbu politics, na dem sabi.

Mynd44:
He doesn't need to win any state in the South South. If he gets nunbers like 41% and cuts the gaps in this state, it is enough

some of them dont understand the mathematics of elections. In a 3 horse race you can lose all 36 states +FCT and win overall.

kedeojo:
don't mind this small igbo boy. What did they not said even up to supreme court. Let Atiku becomes the so coalition and see how even northerners influential politicians deserted him. Why are they talking about Ameachi. Obi is not in their agenda in the north becos of trust. They will never support him cos they view him as a religious bigot. Southerners except south east will prefer to vote for Tinubu than Atiku. South south is already positioning for vice president in 2031 and president in 2039. South west did it and south knows the game too. All this alliance is not because they love Tinubu as much but positioning with the right caucus to get what we want. Make them continue thier nzogbu nzogbu politics, na dem sabi.

I can see how you people can not tell or constructively tell us how you can win SS. You you indirectly claim to come from the SS. Pls can you tell me any state Tinubu can get up to 20% in the region with facts, apart from thinking the govs will help him get 25%

I'm on the ground here and I'm talking from the source and I'm not speculating. For your clarity i am a full blooded Deltan from Kwale, the headquarters of Ndokwa west lga of delta state, and a prominent son of delta north along with prominent personalities like Jim ovia, Elumelu's, Ngozi Okonjo, Jay Jay, Uti Nwachukwu, etc.So don't call me names

You must be an outsider to think that SS will vote for Tinubu to get VP in 2031, you people keep deceiving yourselves with such narrative, there is nothing as such here. What everyone is waiting for here in the region is for 2027 to come so that they can chase the Apc and Tinubu out.

Another fake narrative is Amaechi as president, hmmm you people cannot stop amazing me. Do you think the north will trust Tinubu in 2027 and will not trust Obi? Wonder shall never end.

casualobserver:
some of them dont understand the mathematics of elections. In a 3 horse race you can lose all 36 states +FCT and win overall.

Keep on consoling yourselves, after all, PDP and it's members had same fake confidence in 2015 but what was the end game.

When the masses, the people, the oppressed are against you, there is absolutely nothing you can do about it. Like they say PBAT is a OTP

Linzo:
Keep on consoling yourselves, after all, PDP and it's members had same fake confidence in 2015 but what was the end game.

When the masses, the people, the oppressed are against you, there is absolutely nothing you can do about it. Like they say PBAT is a OTP

oga you are making emotional statements or at best expressing an opinion which is your right. I am stating a fact...you can lose all states and win the presidential elections. Elections are a numbers game not an emotional game of who won which state! A presidential election is not a stste election but a national election!

you win a presidential election by getting 30% here 40% there, not by getting 95% in states with small numbers and getting 3% in states with large populations..

For example: Obi won Enugu state with 93% and 428,0000 votes but despite losing Kano and lagos Tinubu got more votes (570,000 & 523,000) in those states than Obi got for his 93% victory in Enugu. Tinubu's loss in Kano cancelled Obi's landslide in Enugu.

Plus it is not about just winning a a state it is about margin of victory. For example Atiku won taraba with 186K votes but Tinubu came 3rd with 135k votes, so despite Tinubu coming 3rd and Atiku winning, out of 500,000 total votes, all the victory in Taraba contributed to Atiku was 51,000 votes. what matters is not winning or losing a state but the difference between your votes and your opponent.

learn to understand elections, its not about who wins which state it is not a gubernatorial election. Only small minded simpletons think like that. When a party is looking to make inroads into a state, sometimes they dont need or expect to win. The intent is to reduce your margin of victory. Like I said in a 3 horse race, you can lose all states and win the national election so long as you are picking up enough votes in many states.

favor914:
please go into the real world, & stop deceiving yourself on social media, people like yourself that talk all this naivety have never voted, & have no plans of voting.

Just typical empty barrels oblivious to reality.

But Tinubu is losing even in the real world. Do a personal survey around your area and be honest with yourself. And yes, even if you live in the Southwest, the current voter sentiment does not favour Tinubu.

Mynd44:
He doesn't need to win any state in the South South. If he gets nunbers like 41% and cuts the gaps in this state, it is enough

40-gini% in Edo or Delta? Forget the abracadabra in Edo Elections. With PO on the ballot, SE & SS will ditch Tinubu and his co-travelers. I know you guys are hoping on Okowa. Hmm ... we no go tell una. Okowa just saw what the FG is doing to Emefiele his cousin and decided to "defect", on the night of Elections APC will know who is who in Delta.

Mynd44:
He doesn't need to win any state in the South South. If he gets nunbers like 41% and cuts the gaps in this state, it is enough

I doubt Tinubu won't to contest 2027 presidential election. I sincerely doubt

Linzo:
I can see how you people can not tell or constructively tell us how you can win SS. You you indirectly claim to come from the SS. Pls can you tell me any state Tinubu can get up to 20% in the region with facts, apart from thinking the govs will help him get 25%

I'm on the ground here and I'm talking from the source and I'm not speculating. For your clarity i am a full blooded Deltan from Kwale, the headquarters of Ndokwa west lga of delta state, and a prominent son of delta north along with prominent personalities like Jim ovia, Elumelu's, Ngozi Okonjo, Jay Jay, Uti Nwachukwu, etc.So don't call me names

You must be an outsider to think that SS will vote for Tinubu to get VP in 2031, you people keep deceiving yourselves with such narrative, there is nothing as such here. What everyone is waiting for here in the region is for 2027 to come so that they can chase the Apc and Tinubu out.

Another fake narrative is Amaechi as president, hmmm you people cannot stop amazing me. Do you think the north will trust Tinubu in 2027 and will not trust Obi? Wonder shall never end.

The issue is the masses of the North. They blindly trusted Tinubu thinking he will do better than buhari. Religion wasn't the major concern for them but the economy sadly the people are poorer than never before and believe me Tinubu won't waste his resources to contest 2027

Linzo:
You're right, because I'm not an influencer, and I never claimed to have the ability to sway voters. However, as a citizen deeply rooted in the community, I can confidently report with 95% certainty the mood in the South-South region, given my roots and upbringing here.

Secondly, referring to me as a "boy" might be inaccurate, considering I'm a 33-year-old graduate from one of Nigeria's top federal universities, with excellent grades. I'm not a schoolboy; I've earned my credentials.

Let's see how your PBAT will perform outside the South-West, even with potential rigging - of course we're not expecting a fair election, but even with manipulation, I doubt he'll make significant gains beyond his stronghold SW.

Get ready for a significant blow, akin to a hammer strike from the state of Israel to IRAN
!

If truly you earned your certificate you won't be talking like a kindergarten dropout.

How on earth will you wave away the power of incumbency of the governor. Do you know the number of people directly benefiting from the governor and those that made the political structure of PDP that eventually moved to APC?

Though you claimed Delta, but I can smell akpu sense in what you said. Continue to have opinion on Nairaland

You know you are supposed to be sued for giving away state secrets like this?

casualobserver:
oga you are making emotional statements or at best expressing an opinion which is your right. I am stating a fact...you can lose all states and win the presidential elections. Elections are a numbers game not an emotional game of who won which state! A presidential election is not a stste election but a national election!

9jatriot:
You know you are supposed to be sued for giving away state secrets like this?

we are dealing with people that if you gave them the answers to an exam, they will still fail. If you check my post history before the elections, i said the day Obi left PDP that he has just handed victory to Tinubu....they insulted me. Now they are scrambling for coalition but they dont know how coalitions are done!

give them the answers to an exam, their brains will argue with you and write the wrong answer!

9jatriot:
You know you are supposed to be sued for giving away state secrets like this?

casualobserver:
People should try to comment with a bit of intelligence. Peter Obi candidacy was always a long shot, PDP overcoming APC (whoever the candidate may have been) was always going to be an uphill task. What he has done if he intends to contest on another platform is to split PDP votes, peter Obi is very popular (whether he ever had enough votes to win even in PDP is debatable but what is certain now is that he will take away votes from people who would have voted PDP but will not have enough votes in another party to win. Common sense should tell anyone that!!! The net result will be his paew party wont get enough votes and PDP will have less votes thus aiding an APC victory....unless they themselves self implode

Above is the "state secret" i gave them the day Obi left PDP on May 25 2022. it didnt stop them from writing the wrong answer! its only after the fact they always realise the error of their ways!

Linzo:
"No magic can make the APC and Tinubu win any state in the South-South region. I strongly agree that while he may secure the 25% required by law in some states, winning outright is highly unlikely, especially in Delta State where I'm based. If you doubt me, try engaging with your contacts in the region and see what they have to say."

Yes, the governors have defected, but the people on the ground, including their strongest followers, will tell you the same: APC and Tinubu can't even win any local government, especially here in Delta State.

Before you call me names, let me clarify - I'm a Deltan based here in Effurun, by Ogbe Street, behind Hotel de Mark, and I shuttle around the South region on a regular basis.

If you like, believe it or not, APC will lose in 2027 because it has already lost the North, except for Kwara. Please don't mention Benue, because that's a no for PBAT in 2027.

Do not generalise! Speak for yourself. you have just one vote.

Linzo:
You're right, because I'm not an influencer, and I never claimed to have the ability to sway voters. However, as a citizen deeply rooted in the community, I can confidently report with 95% certainty the mood in the South-South region, given my roots and upbringing here.

Secondly, referring to me as a "boy" might be inaccurate, considering I'm a 33-year-old graduate from one of Nigeria's top federal universities, with excellent grades. I'm not a schoolboy; I've earned my credentials.

Let's see how your PBAT will perform outside the South-West, even with potential rigging - of course we're not expecting a fair election, but even with manipulation, I doubt he'll make significant gains beyond his stronghold SW.

Get ready for a significant blow, akin to a hammer strike from the state of Israel to IRAN
!

Why can't you just wait till 2027.
Why are you sweating when the game has not even started?

Mynd44:
He doesn't need to win any state in the South South. If he gets nunbers like 41% and cuts the gaps in this state, it is enough

Let's be clear, Tinubu cannot legally win in 2027 without gaming the system, just as he did in 2023.

We are back to all these again?

People made all kinds of predictions before the 2015 elections. What happened to them?

People made all kinds of predictions before the 2019 elections. What happened to them?

People made all kinds of predictions before the 2023 elections. What happened to them?

I remember a guy that was confidently telling me that GEJ would be the APC candidate in 2023 and that GEJ's own spokesman did not know what he was talking about.

As for me, I wait for election results. The only time I have predicted a Nigerian election was in 1993 and that was because it was too obvious.

Mynd44:
He doesn't need to win any state in the South South. If he gets nunbers like 41% and cuts the gaps in this state, it is enough

I thought mods are supposed to be neutral on issues like this? Could this be the reason why opposition topics and minds are quickly banned or their posts hidden on this forum?

Just asking some harmless questions.

Ttalk:
If truly you earned your certificate you won't be talking like a kindergarten dropout.

How on earth will you wave away the power of incumbency of the governor. Do you know the number of people directly benefiting from the governor and those that made the political structure of PDP that eventually moved to APC?

Though you claimed Delta, but I can smell akpu sense in what you said. Continue to have opinion on Nairaland

I have theory that no member of the house of assembly has anything less 10,000 loyalists who will always do their bidding on election day thats 4.6M million people of which about 65%+ will vote for the president thats 3M vote in the bag before election starts---its an important and influential part of the politics.