₦airaland Forum

Tinubu’s Masterplan in Motion: The Ganduje Exit, Shettima’s Gamble & Kwankwaso’s Quiet Insertion

By Prince Festus Oyom

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, known for his long game and silent political maneuvering, appears to be orchestrating a complex realignment within the northern political establishment. As 2027 looms on the horizon, subtle but seismic shifts in alliances, personnel, and political influence are pointing toward a larger strategic goal: consolidating northern support under a redefined coalition that transcends party orthodoxy. The recent developments involving Abdullahi Ganduje, Kashim Shettima, and Rabiu Kwankwaso provide clear indicators of this evolving strategy.

1. The Ganduje Exit: Strategic Sacrifice or Internal Cleansing?

The beginning of Tinubu’s recalibration became evident with the political weakening of Abdullahi Ganduje, the former Kano State governor and current (but beleaguered) national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Ganduje, once a strong northern ally of Tinubu, became a liability as his image was tarnished by corruption allegations and growing dissatisfaction within party ranks.

His tenure as APC chairman drew increasing scrutiny, especially from factions within the party that saw him as an obstacle to reform and broader inclusivity. For Tinubu, who is intent on positioning the APC as a modern, nationally acceptable vehicle for 2027, Ganduje’s continued presence became untenable.

Allowing Ganduje to be eased out serves dual purposes:

It projects Tinubu as a reform-minded leader willing to jettison compromised allies.

It opens the door for more pragmatic or regionally strategic figures to emerge in northern leadership.

Moreover, Ganduje’s decline in Kano weakens his grip on the state, creating a political vacuum ripe for new alliances.

2. Shettima’s Gamble: Rebalancing the Northern Bloc

Vice President Kashim Shettima has quietly emerged as the northern coordinator of Tinubu’s political survival strategy. As a Kanuri from Borno State in the North-East, Shettima does not hail from the politically dominant Hausa-Fulani Northwest bloc. This gives him a degree of neutrality in brokering new northern alliances.

Shettima’s gamble lies in stretching his influence beyond his geopolitical base to integrate key figures across the northern belt. He is reportedly central to efforts to recalibrate northern leadership away from divisive figures like Ganduje and toward more palatable, reform-minded personalities who could command loyalty across party lines.

This strategy carries political risks:

Aligning too closely with certain northern figures could alienate others.

It could create friction with entrenched APC stakeholders who fear the dilution of their influence.

Nonetheless, Shettima’s maneuvering positions him as a future northern power broker, with the potential to inherit a broader regional mandate.

3. Kwankwaso’s Quiet Insertion: A Calculated Realignment

Perhaps the most intriguing part of Tinubu’s northern strategy is the subtle insertion of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and arguably the most influential politician in Kano State.

After his performance in the 2023 elections and his enduring grassroots appeal, Kwankwaso represents a threat and an opportunity. Reports of backchannel communications and quiet meetings between Tinubu’s camp and Kwankwaso’s allies suggest a calculated softening of opposition lines. Whether this leads to a formal alliance, a cabinet position, or quiet electoral coordination remains to be seen.

The logic behind this insertion is clear:

Kwankwaso neutralized could secure Kano for Tinubu in 2027.

A Tinubu-Kwankwaso understanding splits northern opposition, especially if Atiku Abubakar or a similar figure remains PDP’s northern face.

It brings technocratic credibility to Tinubu’s northern team without triggering alarm within the APC’s rank and file.

Kwankwaso, for his part, gains renewed relevance at the center without sacrificing his outsider status—a politically potent formula.

4. The Northern Chessboard: From Partisan Strongholds to Fluid Coalitions

What is unfolding is a quiet transformation of northern politics from a rigid partisan battlefield into a more fluid coalition terrain. Tinubu appears to be deconstructing old regional power structures (such as the Ganduje-APC axis) and replacing them with hybrid alliances that include non-APC figures (Kwankwaso) and pan-northern brokers (Shettima).

This approach mimics Tinubu’s own political rise: leverage loyalty, build bridges across ideological divides, and reward loyalty with power.

Key Objectives:

Secure the northern vote without overreliance on APC machinery.

Reinvent APC's image in the North as cleaner, younger, and more effective.

Outmaneuver Atiku and the PDP by undercutting their traditional bases.

5. Conclusion: Tinubu the Tactician

The maneuvers involving Ganduje, Shettima, and Kwankwaso are not isolated incidents; they are coordinated components of a larger masterplan. Tinubu, who has long demonstrated an ability to play the long political game, is laying the groundwork for a 2027 reelection bid that will be built not just on performance, but on coalitional dominance.

If this strategy succeeds, Tinubu will have neutralized the internal APC tensions, co-opted major opposition figures, and restructured northern politics to his benefit—all without open confrontation.

The masterplan is in motion. The chessboard is rearranged. And the endgame is already taking shape.

For the 2027 Presidential elections, Tinubu can remove Kashim Shettima and replace him with Ambassador Babagana Kingibe, who commands larger followership and is more respected in the entire north than any of Atiku, Shettima, or Rabiu Kwankwaso.
He is not only from the North East, but he is also a Kanuri like Shettima. It would also heal some of the old wounds inflicted by the annulment of the June 12th 1993 presidential elections. Kingibe is a long-time household name.
This would be a massive masterstroke and a reenactment of Abiola/ Kingibe ticket. Tinubu/Kingibe ticket can be taken to the bank.
O sure ju. O ti lo far.

Adblg0610:
For the 2027 Presidential elections, Tinubu can remove Kashim Shetima and replace him with Ambassador Babagana Kingibe, who commands larger followership and is more respected in the entire north than any of Atiku, Shetima, or Rabiu Kwankwaso.
He is not only from the North East, but he is also a Kanuri like Shetima. It would also heal some of the old wounds inflicted by the annulment of the June 12th 1993 presidential elections. Kingibe is a long-time household name.
This would be a massive masterstroke and a reenactment of Abiola/ Kingibe ticket. Tinubu/Kingibe ticket can be taken to the bank.
O sure ju. O ti lo far.

Kingibe will be 82 by 2027, there are younger and better options

KillahPriest:
Kingibe will be 82 by 2027, there are younger and better options

But he was a 3rd Republic political contemporary of Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso and still possesses more electoral value than the last two northerners, nationwide. Atiku too would be 81 by 2027, they are age mates.
He is also a Kanuri from the North East and a seamless replacement for Shettima.