₦airaland Forum

ComeComing:
Is Kwankwaso More Popular Than Shettima In The North?

If obi agree to run with atiku no igbo will vote for him and that means political death

Same religious tickets has failed woefully, tribal votes has also failed woefully,Power, influence and godfatherism has also failed woefully let's see what they will come up with come 2027. Nigerians if una like make una continue to collect 2k polo and face cap.


I am not your enemy 🙂

guass:
Atiku should support Obi till 2031. Obi will then support Atiku come 2031, simple arithmetic

You are really wicked.Can you check the age difference between Atiku and Obi?Who should be the first to support each other?

Kwankwaso is far better,
Kwankwaso is from a larger state, Kano state
He is from NW
He is also far by tribe (Hausa Fulani)
His has a die hard and cultlike followers ( Kwankwasiyya)
Conclusion
Considering the above mentioned reasons, there is no any strong politician like Kwankwaso in the North currently

Penguin2:
Kwankwaso is more popular than Shettima by far!

And Kwankwaso’s state alone can almost cancel out what opposition candidate can muster in the entire Northeast (Shettima’s zone).

But the big question is, will Kano voters vote for a Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket just because Kwankwaso defected to APC? Are Kano voters that daft? I guess not.

It’s like expecting Ndi Anambra or Southeast to vote for Tinubu because Peter Obi defected to APC. Because as popular as Peter Obi is, one wrong step will kill all of his popularity in the entire Southeast in 24hrs.

But maybe it’s not like that in Kano. Maybe Kano people are easily led by their noses and told where to thumbprint.

But all this simply betrays one thing - that Tinubu is scared to his pampers. While his supporters litter here saying things to excite themselves, Tinubu knows that the reality on ground says something different.

In 2027, those defecting to APC won’t attract much votes to Tinubu; especially in the Southsouth. You would be daft to think Tinubu will win Delta because the governor defected.

Ibos will vote for Atiku if Peter Obi is his running mate.

ComeComing:
Is Kwankwaso More Popular Than Shettima In The North?

this op must really be delusional….obi welds more influence in the Sw than Atiku? I guess he is judging from last election but he seem to have forgotten that dynamics that played out in the last election won’t be there in 2027 which was the Muslim/Muslim propaganda and the fact that the presidency was the turn of the south which influenced the vote obi recorded.

Now with the yes daddy leaked tape unveiling his ethnic and religious agenda coupled with his uncultured ipobidient mob toxicity against opposing views, they should bury the idea of winning any state or becoming second in Sw region specifically Lagos, btw proudly Lagos

Penguin2:
Kwankwaso is more popular than Shettima by far!

And Kwankwaso’s state alone can almost cancel out what opposition candidate can muster in the entire Northeast (Shettima’s zone).

But the big question is, will Kano voters vote for a Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket just because Kwankwaso defected to APC? Are Kano voters that daft? I guess not.

It’s like expecting Ndi Anambra or Southeast to vote for Tinubu because Peter Obi defected to APC. Because as popular as Peter Obi is, one wrong step will kill all of his popularity in the entire Southeast in 24hrs.

But maybe it’s not like that in Kano. Maybe Kano people are easily led by their noses and told where to thumbprint.

But all this simply betrays one thing - that Tinubu is scared to his pampers. While his supporters litter here saying things to excite themselves, Tinubu knows that the reality on ground says something different.

In 2027, those defecting to APC won’t attract much votes to Tinubu; especially in the Southsouth. You would be daft to think Tinubu will win Delta because the governor defected.

So you think it's Tinubu that's the problem of Nigeria?
Hmmm, we are not really ready for true change.
Peter Obi is not in anyway different from the ruling class except you are gazing through tribal or religion lens, one of our undoing in this direction less nation

IYAKABIRU301:
ONLY GOD KNOWS


- Is Shettima and Kwankwaso from different region in the north?

- If yes, whose region has more voting strength to the other?


I ask because I'm thinking maybe Tinubu has sensed that 40 or 50 percent of his tribesmen votes can't win him election. Note: I said this because Obi welds great influence in Tinubu's tribe than Tinubu welds in Obi's land.

And Obi is more popular than Atiku in the west, so he(Tinubu) wants to bring in a candidate from a region with great voting strength (Kwankwaso) because maybe he fears an Atiku/Obi merger happening (which of course will lead to his defeat).

Without being bais, any body that knows deep about Nigerian politics will agree that an Atiku/Obi coalition will beat Tinubu/Shettima hands down. Anybody that says otherwise is either ignorant or a mole. (The former coalition did great job in 2019 and could have won save for Buhari's cult like followership in the North, which off course Tinubu doesn't have)

If you notice, Tinubu waited until Atiku picked his vice (super paperweight Okowa) before settling for Shettima (I think he decided to pick Shettima afterall because Atiku's vice(Okowa) had minus 99 percent influence for PDP, even Obi won in Okowa's region) not because Shettima had any significant influence in his zone.


To cut it short, I'd say; any coalition that is not Atiku/Obi is dead on arrival (this is the only merger than can bring the ruling party down)

Obi needs to mellow down and agree to deputize Atiku. And Atiku should not shoot himself in the foot again by picking a paperweight vice like Rotimi Amaechi, if not tinubu will win by a landslide.


Just my thoughts (I stand to be corrected). pardon my grammatical errors

I'm not trying to sound negative but an Atiku and any body can't win tinubu. People do not like Atiku again

guass:
Atiku should support Obi till 2031. Obi will then support Atiku come 2031, simple arithmetic

How does this make any sense to you?

Now that i need 12 more characters what do i do?

dalongjnr:
Muslim-Muslim ticket will not fly again.
Wait and see. If APC try that, that would be it's end.

It will sir. Tinubu will win NC and divide ne/ nw..he will take SS or lose narrowly

Penguin2:
Una no dey read.

He said Obi is more popular in Southwest than Tinubu is popular in Southeast.

This expression shouldn’t be difficult to understand naaa!

Is it that bad?

Tinubu will win SS or lose narrowly which is still a strategic win if you have foresight

See english abeg i wish i can make correct impact on a particular thread like this.i could have attempted almost all nairaland post...

Omicron007:
KWANKWASO IS MORE POPULAR.

THIS IS NOT EVEN UP FOR DEBATE.

ASIDES BUHARI, NO LIVING NORTHERNER HAS THE KIND OF CULT FOLLOWERSHIP THAT KWANKWASO HAS.

THE MAN SHOULD HAVE BEEN PRESIDENT OF NORTHERN NIGERIA WAS A COUNTRY ON ITS OWN.

AND FOR 2027, APC IS IN A BIG MESS ALREADY.
THE PARTY WILL IMPLODE INTERNALLY

oglalasioux:
Without an Atiku/Obi ticket in 2027, Tinubu will win the election even if he choose Bello Turji as running mate. A Peter Obi on the ballot as presidential candidate is Tinubu’s surest way to second tenure.

why are you revealing our secret….let the ipobidient mob continue to live in delusion of a weather weight like bitter obi beating Tinubu in a two man’s race

Penguin2:
Kwankwaso is more popular than Shettima by far!

And Kwankwaso’s state alone can almost cancel out what opposition candidate can muster in the entire Northeast (Shettima’s zone).

But the big question is, will Kano voters vote for a Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket just because Kwankwaso defected to APC? Are Kano voters that daft? I guess not.

It’s like expecting Ndi Anambra or Southeast to vote for Tinubu because Peter Obi defected to APC. Because as popular as Peter Obi is, one wrong step will kill all of his popularity in the entire Southeast in 24hrs.

But maybe it’s not like that in Kano. Maybe Kano people are easily led by their noses and told where to thumbprint.

But all this simply betrays one thing - that Tinubu is scared to his pampers. While his supporters litter here saying things to excite themselves, Tinubu knows that the reality on ground says something different.

In 2027, those defecting to APC won’t attract much votes to Tinubu; especially in the Southsouth. You would be daft to think Tinubu will win Delta because the governor defected.

God bless u.God will really really bless u.u are an in-depth analyst.i don talk tire them no Dey hear.im a deltan.if sherif open em moith tell me to vote tinubu I go slap am.im not in his pay roll so how can he sway me.amd guess what?sherrif has less than 5k Aides and less than 200 elected officials.How do people think when a gov moves the entire state has moved.i no understand.I like d way u said Obi can lose his love in less than 24hrs with one miscalculation.i really enjoyed ur words

Kwankwaso is by far more popular than Shettima more influential than Shettima in the NORTH. they are incomparable. infact he is like Bola Tinubu in the west.

Mabuggi88:
My own is, Anything Atiku/Obi ticket will defeat Tinubu/Jesus Christ let alone Tinubu/Kwankwaso. Peter Obi dusted Kwankwaso in the whole North(cumulative votes).
Only Saraki/NOI can defeat Atiku/Obi in 2027. If Obi and Atiku like let them separately and continue keeping us in this hardship

Otondo, you must be mistaking Tinubu for Jonathan…..the earlier you accept the fact that there is no pact way for obi or atiku presidency come 2027, the better for your sanity and health

thatigboman:
tinubu's Region is logos. And Obi is more popular than Tinubu in Lagos

hahaha 😂🤣😂with just 10,000 vote difference all thanks to Muslim/Muslim propaganda don’t worry the Yorubas are waiting for your agulu yes daddy packaged fraud to correct the mistake of the last election….Una go know who truly get Lagos, just reserve your tears till then

Akpakomiza2:
It will sir. Tinubu will win NC and divide ne/ nw..he will take SS or lose narrowly

Once he dropped shetima,his base in NE is gone.
In NC =only kogi is sure for him,that's if he reconcile with yahaya bello.
Nasarawa can tilt to pdp or adc.
Plateau can vote tinubu if he chose to work with the present governor,if not, he may not get 25%.
Kwara is a very difficult one him.
The governor is not his person and the former governors are still strong and influential and not with him.
Benue is hard to call 35% for him considering how he handle the banditry issues there. People are now having the perception that's jihad that's going on in the state.
Niger state use to be APC stronghold due to bubari's influence but that's no longer there.
Abuja can till to tinubu due to wike's infrastructure drive but if he doesn't handle the issues of civil servants and land allocation/demolition well, he may not get 50%.

Atiku leading the coalition instead of Obi is walkover election for PBAT.

I and my household will happily vote Tinubu and go home and suffer!

Tinubu is clueless but far better than Atiku. Even if it is English speaking accent alone which he learnt when he traveled to peddle drug in America I will make due with that!

Honoredeblazac:
Kwankwaso is significantley more powerful than Shetima as he can deliver Kano (which has more votes than the entire south east), Jigawa, and all north west states. He also influences the northeast, where Hausa-Fulani are the largest tribe when compared to Kanuri. He also has no Boko Haram suspicious baggage and no one has ever accused him of being a sponsor of terrorists or even an extremist, for that matter. I am not saying Shettima knows anything about Boko Haram, but many people think he does. But I believe Shettima as a person is a better candidate when it comes to knowledge, performance, and worldview, as he was a bank manager who lived in Lagos and is very close to so many Igbos and other southerners. Shettima is also a very very intelligent man, and way less prideful than him

Kwankwasos influence only extends to a few LGAs in jigawa and not the NW. He doesn't have the reach of Buhari. Shettimas problem is that the NE has less votes, but in terms of state by state influence, Shettima has no significanct opposition in Borno, unlike kwankwasos, who has been playing hide and seek with ganduje.

One thing I know is that the 2027 elections won't be influenced by big names, like we've had in the past.

Awoleesu:
First, on the question of who's more politically popular in the North. Generally speaking,
Kwankwaso outweighs Shettima in the general north.

Kwankwaso being from NW zone (the largest voting block in the Federation) has single-handedly pulled over 1million votes in the last Presidential election while delivering his home state (Kano) to his party (NNPP).
Shettima on the other hand hails from NE geopolitical zone (the least dense voting block in the North, though considered a strong politician in his home state (Borno) having served 2 terms as governor and successfully installing his own successor may have some voting influence but certainly not in the shade of Kwankwaso's.

Having affirmed all these, let's now put your permutations into perspective:

Would you honestly expect the general south to sacrifice their turn for a northern candidate given the scheme of things in Nigerian politics?
I very much doubt this, and this factor may even play a huge role in the larger picture of 2027....

Then, there's the idea of an Atiku/Obi vs A Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket in the race.
If the 2023 elections were anything to go by, it's only a question of a simple addition and subtraction to arrive at the answer that the odds appear to favour the former because Atiku/Obi = 6+6 (approx. 12m) to a Tinubu/Kwankwaso 8+1 (approx. 9m). So, you do the maths.

But it's like I said, the game may be different this time around given the North/South dichotomy that always influenced voting pattern in Nigeria.

You should acknowledge that there is no more Christian voting bloc for Atiku/obi plus southern sentiments. 2027 Will teach us all new lessons.

Penguin2:
Kwankwaso is more popular than Shettima by far!

And Kwankwaso’s state alone can almost cancel out what opposition candidate can muster in the entire Northeast (Shettima’s zone).

But the big question is, will Kano voters vote for a Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket just because Kwankwaso defected to APC? Are Kano voters that daft? I guess not.

It’s like expecting Ndi Anambra or Southeast to vote for Tinubu because Peter Obi defected to APC. Because as popular as Peter Obi is, one wrong step will kill all of his popularity in the entire Southeast in 24hrs.

But maybe it’s not like that in Kano. Maybe Kano people are easily led by their noses and told where to thumbprint.

But all this simply betrays one thing - that Tinubu is scared to his pampers. While his supporters litter here saying things to excite themselves, Tinubu knows that the reality on ground says something different.

In 2027, those defecting to APC won’t attract much votes to Tinubu; especially in the Southsouth. You would be daft to think Tinubu will win Delta because the governor defected.

You have political heavy weights in the north and kwakwanso can be at oar with atiku if he were in a party like pdp but he still did great with is small Nnpp...it's funny how obidients think obi would get more votes than he did in 2023.... What you guys always forget is that the dynamics would be different in 2027 and so many factors would come to bear.

Power of incumbency,money and ability to galvanise support across class and ethnic lines,religion and tribalism....tinubu would still have far more appeal to any northerner than obi anytime anyday just for being Muslim and he would have far more support in his region than he did in 2023.....the battle ground are the swing states like Parts of NC and SS and many of this places especially the SS many factors that worked against the APC in 2923 won't be there In 2027.....it's obvious 2027 won't be a 2 horse race and that would work greatly in Tinubu's favour, everyone would hold their regions tight and any where your opponent is winning just try to keep the margin as tight as possible,that was how tinubu was able to beat atiku because states atiku won,he came second with very narrow margin, Katsina was just about 5k difference and even 4k in other places

It's same way obi wou6also loose votes if he decides to work with atiku rather than going it alone.... The opposition have a bigger dilemma because tinubu already knows his weaknesses and is already doing everything to work on that

seunmsg:
At least, he can deliver Kano and influence things in the NW. As it stands, Shetima’s governor and Senator have declared war against the administration in which Shettima is the vice president.

Ooh. So Shetima declared war on Tinubu? I guess that’s why Tinubu wants to replace him

Satazaa:
brilliant insights, it's simply head scratching for me that any sane human living in Nigeria will willingly elect another Fulani man to rule this country not for even four years but potentially eight years, out of power the fulanis are already overrunning us and killing farmers, so how much more if they clinch power again after the disastrous rule of Buhari

If this country is a normal country, no one from NW or NE is supposed to be voted to become a president for the next 20 years, till they are able to overcome all their challenges from education, to development, to security plaguing them, cos no one can solve it except they themselves.

The British did us a country a very bad thing by handing over power to them.

seunmsg:
At least, he can deliver Kano and influence things in the NW. As it stands, Shetima’s governor and Senator have declared war against the administration in which Shettima is the vice president.

How far with Obasa is gone for good?
You have started your permutations again

shwrapppppp....tinubu is d worst to hapun to naija...a ghost ruling us is better

ajailer:
Kwankwaso has more influence, Kwankwaso is from NW, while Shetima is from NE. Your analysis seems right, but if PBAT is able to win a second term, then the guy is a confirmed demi god in politics. I am just looking at how PBAT will play the game to make Shetima step down for Kwankwaso without the north feeling that they are being used as an end to a means, cos those guys are egoistical.

For the coalition, forget the noise, the ticket will still be Atiku/Obi.

But no one should think they can solve Nigeria's problems in 8 years, what we need at this time is a leader who is bold enough to do his own little bit of taking away the influence of the cabals over this country, which the president is doing right now. PO does not have that kind of clout, he will be overwhelmed if he is lucky to be the president, I can't even imagine the state of things he will leave Nigeria. Atiku will only come to entrench the Fulani hold over Nigeria, so I see him as the worst of this three guys.

Lastly, we still need a southerner on that seat for another 4 years, so that they can do their bit before these Fula guys come again with their evil agenda.

seunmsg:
At least, he can deliver Kano and influence things in the NW. As it stands, Shetima’s governor and Senator have declared war against the administration in which Shettima is the vice president.

Oga we are still waiting for one thing - just one thing in which you disagree with the Tinubu administration on.

dalongjnr:
Once he dropped shetima,his base in NE is gone.
In NC =only kogi is sure for him,that's if he reconcile with yahaya bello.
Nasarawa can tilt to pdp or adc.
Plateau can vote tinubu if he chose to work with the present governor,if not, he may not get 25%.
Kwara is a very difficult one him.
The governor is not his person and the former governors are still strong and influential and not with him.
Benue is hard to call 35% for him considering how he handle the banditry issues there. People are now having the perception that's jihad that's going on in the state.
Niger state use to be APC stronghold due to bubari's influence but that's no longer there.
Abuja can till to tinubu due to wike's infrastructure drive but if he doesn't handle the issues of civil servants and land allocation/demolition well, he may not get 50%.

Shetima's influence is only im borno,he couldn't even win neighbouring yobe and ribadu can neutralise what ever influence he has in Adamawa...NE is atiku's base and he still has it...tinubu can only attempt to come as close as possible on the ballot but tinubu can hold his own in the NW with the support of the govs as they did in 2023,he will still get huge votes from NW,might not win all but would definitely get more than jigawa he got in the last election,if he can still get ganduje and kwakwanso to his side Kano is done and dusted,Sokoto is guaranteed,kebbi,zamfara,naduna and Katsina can go either way but the margin if he looses can't be more than 10-15%

No Yoruba would leave tinubu for atiku or obi when a Yoruba man is president and he has all the state govs with him.

SS is the battle ground and he will surely get more votes than he did in 2023 and only obi would be his head ache there if he decides to run and not atiku,amaechi is only a noise maker.....obi would not have it funny in his region if he decides to go with atiku as some realignment would be inevitable except he decides to run alone,he should only pray MNK isn't released to come continue is Biafra agitation and trust me that can easily be an ace tinubu would want to use to counter him and they both can't work together and he is equally has popular as obi over there all he needs do is call for election boycott and Obi's votes would be up in smoke.

Penguin2:
Kwankwaso is more popular than Shettima by far!

And Kwankwaso’s state alone can almost cancel out what opposition candidate can muster in the entire Northeast (Shettima’s zone).

But the big question is, will Kano voters vote for a Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket just because Kwankwaso defected to APC? Are Kano voters that daft? I guess not.

It’s like expecting Ndi Anambra or Southeast to vote for Tinubu because Peter Obi defected to APC. Because as popular as Peter Obi is, one wrong step will kill all of his popularity in the entire Southeast in 24hrs.

But maybe it’s not like that in Kano. Maybe Kano people are easily led by their noses and told where to thumbprint.

But all this simply betrays one thing - that Tinubu is scared to his pampers. While his supporters litter here saying things to excite themselves, Tinubu knows that the reality on ground says something different.

In 2027, those defecting to APC won’t attract much votes to Tinubu; especially in the Southsouth. You would be daft to think Tinubu will win Delta because the governor defected.

Nnamdi Kanu will be granted state pardon before 2027 election to wither down Obi's political influence in the South East.
Nnamdi Kanu will be assigned same role Ikemba Nnewi was assigned against Nnamdi Azikiwe, in 2003 Presidential election.

oglalasioux:
Without an Atiku/Obi ticket in 2027, Tinubu will win the election even if he choose Bello Turji as running mate. A Peter Obi on the ballot as presidential candidate is Tinubu’s surest way to second tenure.

Did Tinubu win before?
O I see, you are referring to rigging strategy... ?

I never wanted to put mouth in this question but then I will because I have done my permutations and all I can ask people commenting is that , so are we saying we will test run our future again in 2027 with the way we are analysing wicked and evil politicians that we currently have.
What did obi do?
What did Atiku do?
What did Tinubu do?
Are you saying all of them have never ruled us before and if they did what was their antecedents.
Are you saying we are walking in streets of gold during their administration or in their administration?

Well I have concluded that Nigeria is on a long ride to being good.
You want to repackage old wine inside new wine still.
Have you spoken with some of your mates in saner clines to know what it means to have a good working country.

Anyways like some popular quote "when we are tired we know what to do"
So for now let us enjoy what they are dishing to us.

Maybe a generation that has the critical thinking will come and change things sha.

That shows Tinubus tribes men are detribalized if Obi has more influence in Tinubus tribe n tinubu does have sane ...

Yes I agree.

Pinklada:
That shows Tinubus tribes men are detribalized if Obi has more influence in Tinubus tribe n tinubu does have sane