₦airaland Forum

• Analyst asks anti-Tinubu coalition to prepare to fight.

• Says ‘we are talking about people who monumentally de-marketed Jonathan, PDP’.

• WARNS OBIDIENTS: There are no polling booths on the internet.

•ON MBAH: If you don’t want Enugu gov to defect, give him reasons.

Who will step down for the other? That is the key question a political analyst, Prof Okey Ikechukwu, tries to answer in this interview as the anti-Tinubu coalition moved into the African Democratic Congress (ADC), last week, to confront the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 polls.

No fewer than three top members of the coalition have indicated interest in picking the presidential ticket of the alliance, and there could be more as we inch closer to 2027. Former VP Atiku Abubakar ranks high on the list.

Mr Peter Obi and Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi is also in the race, as they have said they will spend only one term if given the ticket and elected president in 2027.

Obi and Amaechi’s position aligns with the agitation that the South should remain in power until 2031, when it is expected to shift to the North. President Bola Tinubu, also a southerner like Obi and Amaechi, will finish his first term in 2027 and is warming up to contest for a second term.

Ikechukwu, who is the Executive Director of the Development Specs Academy, asks the coalition to prepare to fight as the people they will face in 2027 are tough, citing the monumental de-marketing of President Goodluck Jonathan and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ahead of the 2023 polls by them.

He warns that the Obidient Movement risks repeating the mistakes of 2023 if it continues to rely on online popularity rather than building real political structures on the ground. He describes the reinstatement of Senator Samuel Anyanwu as the PDP National Secretary as a decision that could further alienate members in the South-East.

The analyst also speaks on the rumoured defection of Governor Mbah of Enugu from the PDP. Excerpts:

The PDP said it reinstated Senator Samuel Anyanwu as the National Secretary to save the party from implosion. Do you think what the PDP declared on Monday was a pyrrhic victory?

Well, it might turn out to be at the end of the day, but the question of the party imploding, it already imploded long before now. The critical issue on the table is the choice of Anyanwu, and then the submission from the South-East Caucus that Anyanwu is not their candidate. Question number one, is this new in the PDP or in any of the political parties? The answer is no. If you think back to 2019, Atiku contested for the office of president under the PDP, with Peter Obi as his running mate.

The same reaction you’re getting now is the reaction you got from the South-East. If you recall, after Peter was chosen by Atiku, there was a press conference by those who called themselves South-East stakeholders within the PDP. That group was led by, I think, then-Governor Dave Umahi.

They addressed Nigerians that “this is not our choice”. But the candidacy or choice of Peter Obi stood despite that. That reaction was based, I think, on the assumption or the understanding behind the scenes that Ekweremadu was going to be the candidate.

And if you recall, the feelers from the PDP was that nobody knew this was coming, and that Atiku made the announcement and fled the premises. The other point to note is that you asked about whether it would be a pyrrhic victory. Remember that that 2019 election, Peter got majority votes in the South-East.

But those who voted for him made sure that Buhari also got 25 percent of the votes which he needed in order to win. So it is for them to ask themselves the question: What we are doing now, what will it deliver to us? But, more importantly, you may have a party caucus that’s also not on ground.

The challenge is for Anyanwu to prove that he’s the big boy those supporting him think he is. If he’s the big boy, if he has clout, but his brothers and sisters don’t want him, let him show that. Now, let’s place some facts on principle on the table and then come to the matter of general politics.

In principle, you cannot challenge a political party for taking a position on any issue. But from the matter of building party cohesion and synergy and giving everybody a sense of belonging, it would make sense to say, “Look, if you’re choosing somebody from my family, I should be the one to say this is the person I want to represent us in the village square”. So, I can understand the caucus concern.

But take that concern even further back to the time of Obasanjo. Most of the Senate presidents chosen when the South-East had the presidency, were they really the candidates of the South-East? Probably, except one. So, those are the things to consider. As for implosion, the PDP imploded long ago. And I’ll give you the reason for it. Think of the re-entry of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar into the PDP, and he got the ticket, and how many people got annoyed, and how very powerful politicians in the North said, “Okay, he has got the ticket, let us see how he’s going to win the presidency”. That party is trying to pretend that it still has an identity.

It’s trying to pretend that the NEC can actually take binding decisions. It’s trying to pretend that it can control its membership when nobody can control Nyesom Wike. So, this party will participate in the 2027 election, but I doubt that it will contest. And what that means is, if you’re contesting with me for a gunfight and you come with a catapult, you’re participating, you’re not contesting because the contest is to be prepared and equipped to win. The party is not poised to win that election at the level of strategy, at the level of cohesion, at the level of building internal democracy, and at the level of making all the regions feel they belong.

The issue in the South-East would mean that those who are angry will engage in anti-party activities These are the challenges and dangers the PDP should contemplate and navigate now that it’s taken the decision that it has to be Senator Anyanwu.

Considering the speculation that Mr Peter Mba of Enugu State might be the next governor to decamp to the APC, the emergence of the coalition and how they have adopted the ADC, bringing in disgruntled PDP members and the Peter Obi effect and the stronghold that he has in the South-East, where do you see the dice falling?

You cannot have a coalition of people who are not only disgruntled, but all of them have had very disturbing relationships with each other in the past, have ideological differences, and there are also nearly all of them angling for the position (presidency).

Who will step down for the other? Secondly, all this talk about coalition, apart from Abuja, Lagos, and maybe press releases, what efforts are being made at the levels below the national, even the periphery of the national, to create some kind of understanding, some kind of building, building backwards, and say “let’s go to our party members in the states and tell them it’s in our interest to do this?”.

They want to form a coalition at the top, and, with it, rule Nigeria. That is problem number one. Problem number two, look at the relationship between nearly all of them.

Remember that El-Rufai has the challenge of the Muslim-Muslim ticket. Then Babachir Lawal is a die-hard Christian. Many people think that Atiku Abubakar should step down.

Rotimi Amaechi is on the table, and some of us are not entirely sure what he’s bringing to that table. David Mark is there also, a two-time Senate president with a lot of clout. Picture a room where all of them are sitting together to form a government for Nigeria. How will the conversation go? What are the policy issues they will bring up? They are likely to discuss positions. Who will be vice president? It’s not about development, even though the intention on the table, on the pretext, is development. Their concern is to remove the APC government.

Supposing, for instance, in doing this, they are telling us this is what we want to put on the table once we get rid of the APC…

You see, there will be a basis for conversation. But to sound very angry, to tell us, “Nigeria, all of us are suffering”, we know that, including those who are telling us that we are suffering.

What do we intend to do about it? What are the alternative policies? What strategies are in place? The parties in which you are today, are they doing well? Is there internal democracy in those parties? The states where your party is governing today, are they doing well? Are the governors exceptional? When you consider all of these, I look at the whole coalition talk with a lot of pessimism for the simple reason that whereas it would be wonderful for them to replace APC by whatever name they choose to call the party, the question I ask myself is, are they really preparing to do that? There’s a difference between engagement and strategic engagement. You want to deal with the rain and a leaking roof, and you bring only buckets.

You’re not thinking of replacing the roof. They are not being strategic, and the profiles of the individuals involved present a double barrel negative challenge for all of them. They should prepare for a fight if they are serious, and I don’t see them being sufficiently strategic to do that.

Mba’s defection

Peter Mba’s defection is a possibility. Could that make people say, “Oh, this man is not reliable?” Yes. They can say that, but I will also ask, is ideological conversion possible? Yes. Do defections occur in political parties? Yes. Do some of us like it? No. Does it remove the fact that somebody can do it? It doesn’t.

If you don’t want him to defect, give him reasons not to defect. If somebody is going to defect from your party, why is he doing so? What’s the problem with your party? Why is he moving? If you can prevent him, first of all admit your own shortcomings that are making people vacate your own address.

Obi’s effect

The third point is the Peter Obi factor. Yes, Peter Obi is very popular not only in the South-East but all over the federation. The Obidient Movement is strong and powerful and even growing stronger. But as I keep telling the movement, there are no polling booths on the internet. There’s no polling booth on Facebook or Instagram. Polling booths are in specific local locations, and they have to be manned by party agents. That’s fact number one.

Fact number two is, are the Labour Party or the Obidients or both of them together building any kind of cohesion such that there’s a progressive development of ideological purity, group cohesion, meetings and encounters, leading to the development of structures at the ground level? I’m not seeing it. Finally, on the Peter Obi factor, Obidients have argued convincingly and correctly, that, “Look, we’ve proven a lot of people wrong. They say that without structures you cannot win elections in Nigeria but, without structures, see all the votes we got in Lagos, see all the votes we got all over the country”.

Fantastic! But there’s an Igbo saying that if the person who uses a mousetrap sets a mousetrap in order to catch a chimpanzee, the trap will actually catch the chimpanzee but you know the problem? The hunter will neither come home with his trap nor the meat of a chimpanzee. You got all the votes, no question about that. You won Lagos, I believe you. Did those votes come into your pocket? No. Why? If you know the answer to that question, are you doing anything about it? Look, they are just wasting the time they need to prepare for the next elections in speech making, in self-adulation, and in what you might call conversations that are not going further down. They are wasting the potential and possibilities of that movement.

Discretionary expenses

And if you recall, in the last elections, the Labour Party is correct in saying “we no dey give shishi” but I’ll ask that party to make a distinction between mandatory expenses and discretionary expenses. If you send me to go to the market and buy you groundnut, and give me the money for the groundnut, but no money for transport, you say, “Oh, I’m a volunteer”. But I may get tired on the way. And the danger is that your enemy may give me a ride.

They have to recalibrate the conception of “I no dey give shishi” to mean “we will not bribe or spend money to subvert the process, but we’ll deal with necessary costs for those who will work for us”. That’s number one. Number two, they must develop legs on the ground.

Number three, and most critically, they must structure their funding clearly and tie it to specific things that enable parties to develop. It’s not when there is anything to be done, you begin to find out, “Oh, we have to buy ticket for this person, so remove him from the list of those who are traveling”.

As long as they go on like this, they will also participate in 2027 but they will not contest. That’s in the element of the Obidient Movement, Peter himself, and the rest of it. They are not preparing to displace APC because you’re talking about a party that used fantastic strategy as opposition, de-marketed the PDP comprehensively, de-marketed Jonathan comprehensively, sometimes without data, claiming, “Oh, once we come in, we’ll have one naira to one dollar”. He came to the primaries contrary to everybody’s expectation, Tinubu got the ticket. He came to the election, “Oh, so it’s a walkover. How can he? He has lost”.

He won the election. No matter the means, people are still seething with anger about the method. But the truth of the matter is that if you’re going to displace or take on such a person, prepare for the fight. If you want to go into wrestling, prepare for wrestling. Don’t go and prepare with wrestling skills for boxing.

Then when they defeat you, you say, “Oh, the man was too violent”. Are you not the one who said you wanted to fight? So I think this delusional element of hoping that applause from the people will give you the presidency, it will not. That movement needs to super up, impressive as it is, it needs to develop more or less on the ground.

What strategy do you think the coalition should adopt and what can or should the APC be doing to reaffirm the strong position it currently has?

First of all, the coalition should define its ideological trajectory. “We are coming in to replace the APC because we want to do this and this”. That’s number one. Number two: “This is how we are going to do it, implementation of strategies.

The kind of candidate we want will be this type of candidate, a competent Nigerian, but in order to create balance, the president will come from this place, the vice president will come from this place. Then, in terms of spread, we are going to hold meetings. First, each of the coalition parties will meet at the ward level, council level, state and regional level”. Then come to the national to announce, “Yes, we’ve created an organic engagement”. They need to do a drill down. If they do these three things, people will become clear about their narrative and know whether to trust them or not.

But to keep coming on air and saying “we are doing coalition to remove Tinubu”, how do you assume that removing him will give us anything better? And this has nothing to do whether he’s there or not. If they like, let them remove him.

I’m suffering like everyone else. But the point I’m making is, there was a time in this country we said “anything but Jonathan, get rid of him, he’s incompetent”. Buhari came in and everybody said, “Good heavens, we’re in hell”. Buhari has left, Tinubu is here and we are screaming.

So the ability to complain is not the issue. Plan a strategic displacement template, apply it. For instance, people are asking, why will certain people be the ones who are standing to contest? And all the individuals mentioned have their challenges. Clear all of that, then you’re making sense. Otherwise, this is just entertainment with all due respect to the persons involved, it will peter out.

Regarding the APC, the party has no business celebrating the volume of people decamping because as they are coming, you must also be welcoming and warehousing them. This second element is critical. If you planned a party for 50 people, now 75 people have turned up, please make sure you don’t leave everybody coming in standing around. The place will become disrupted.

So the possibility of that problem is there. But more importantly, it’s for the APC to begin to articulate more clearly its policies. The engagement in 2027 is coming a little too early. I think the APC might need to ask some of those excitedly jumping up and down for that and clearly looking for money to spend on those who will sponsor them that it may all backfire. Focus on your programs. Tell us how you are reaching the grassroots.

Source: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/07/adc-big-question-who-steps-down-as-peter-obi-atiku-amaechi-eye-ticket/

No primaries to be conducted
They know the who will take it

Atiku should relax first so that sane people can contest. Atiku is always pulling parties down for his selfish agenda

The good thing is who will win will be the one to be chosen by majority of Nigerians.
APC has done so much damage that Nigerians will be actively involved in deciding the primaries that will throw up a populous presidential candidate.

Just those three? How are you sure there isn't more?

Atiku must be president by faya by force. Na wah for these men sha.

Peter Obi seff don try for the hustle. chasing presidency for 12 years.

Rotimi Amaechi said he will do just one term... clap for him

Obi is the candidate. That is on is glaring. No dulling

The Coalition is meant for Atiku, but El-Rufai and co wouldn't inform Obi because they knew he wouldn't join the Coalition if he knew the truth.

Obi, on the other hand, knows the truth, but he still went ahead thinking a miracle could happen that would make him emerge as the flag bearer.

Their case is not different from the usual Game of Politics, but unfortunately for them, they are playing TINUBU's game.

A transparent primaries without atiku unending dollars will see Obi emerge, he's their only bet against tinubu that is if atiku and the rest signed an agreement not to run to another platform...... And Obi should negotiate with kwankwaso to accept vp and bring on board his red cap movement with the promise that Obi will do one term and kwankwaso takes over..... Tinubu will poo in his pant

Make atiku go rest na.

Who will give me more character bayi

So many captains on a ship. ADC is proxily owned by Atiku

Amaechi and Peter Obi have back up plan I think. Aisha Yesufu just hijacked one new registered political party, El Rufai is rumored to be scouting for one. Amaechi and El Rufai are together

Atiku will stepdown for Obi. If he really wants to contest for 2027 presidency, he would remain in PDP.



Amaechi just wants to be 'settled'. Which influence does he have sef?

The coalition can't work for so many reasons. I will list some reasons why

Peter Obi can't get ADC presidential ticket as the party is proxily owned by Atiku. Atiku left Pdp to further is presidency ambition.

Atiku as the presidential candidate of the coalition, it won't sell in Southern region most especially in SW and SS. Atiku's presidency also can't sell in NC. Not to talk of the one term proposal which won't go anywhere

Peter Obi as Vice president of the coalition, how can the best candidate amongnst the rest be vicing others when the position of VP is like P in psychology. Such narration can't sell

Peter Obi as the presidential candidate of the coalition. The north would rather prefer president Tinubu to complete his second term as the narration of one term can't sell.

Peter Obi contesting on different party from ADC mean as like in 2023, Peter Obi and Atiku will share same votes together

Oriyomin25:
The Coalition is meant for Atiku, but El-Rufai and co wouldn't inform Obi because they knew he wouldn't join the Coalition if he knew the truth.

Obi, on the other hand, knows the truth, but he still went ahead thinking a miracle could happen that would make him emerge as the flag bearer.

Their case is not different from the usual Game of Politics, but unfortunately for them, they are playing TINUBU's game.

Everything is Tinubu's game.

Even when the coalition wins, it'll still be Tinubu's game.

Atiku needs to step down. The presidential seat is supposed to remain in the south for another four years. Atiku knows that rotation of the presidency between the north and the south keeps Nigeria.

Atiku should be the first to step down, he's the odd man out!

2027 presidential election is a southern affair, all northerners should wait for their turn in 2031!

AllBlack:
Atiku must be president by faya by force. Na wah for these men sha.

Peter Obi seff don try for the hustle. chasing presidency for 12 years.

Rotimi Amaechi said he will do just one term... clap for him

Yes I agree, Atiku will be president of your village!

My questions are:
1. Will the North vote Obi in case he emerges as ADC presidential candidate?
2. Will the South vote for Atiku if he emerges as ADC presidential candidate?
3. Does Rotimi Amaechi possess the clout and war chest to battle Tinubu in case the Rotimi emerges as ADC presidential candidate?
4. Will Peter Obi agrees to be Vice President under Atiku?

helinues:
The coalition can't work for so many reasons. I will list some reasons why

Peter Obi can't get ADC presidential ticket as the party is proxily owned by Atiku. Atiku left Pdp to further is presidency ambition.

Atiku as the presidential candidate of the coalition, it won't sell in Southern region most especially in SW and SS. Atiku's presidency also can't sell in NC. Not to talk of the one term proposal which won't go anywhere

Peter Obi as Vice president of the coalition, how can the best candidate amongnst the rest be vicing others when the position of VP is like P in psychology. Such narration can't sell.

Peter Obi as the presidential candidate of the coalition. The north would rather prefer president Tinubu to complete his second term as the narration of one term can't sell.

Peter Obi contesting on different party from ADC mean as like in 2023, Peter Obi and Atiku will share same votes together

You got it right in the bolded above.

How do you think the north will not go for the best? Ethnic or religious bigotry?

Mba cannot defect to Apc. No state in Nigeria hate Apc like Enugu. No state gave labour party their vote more than Enugu. If Mba defect to any other party apart from ADC he fails

Amechi should step aside. He don't have what it takes to win presidential election

Atiku will likely get it and contest with Obi

Amechi don't have a stronghold.

The only way is for Atiku/Obi to have the ticket

Amaechi does not have any vote to bring to the table. Peter Obi and Atiku combined brings over 13 million votes. The race will between Atiku and Obi but knowing Atiku he will shut down everywhere with dollars during the primaries unless he just wants to back Obi in preparation for 2031. Only Tinubu has ever defeated Atiku in a primary. Lagos money no be any body mate

He is Peter Obi but I'm Pitying Obi.
We are twins but from different countries.

Hope Atiku wont destroy this party with dollars as him and nweki did to pdp

Stop worrying about ADC, the party big shot have already decided internally and you APC wings won’t get idea. Focus on who will replace shettima as vp

In all this noise there is nothing to come our of it. PBAT will defeat all 3 of them before 12am after vote count even while vote are still counting. Who are the 3 Atiku Amechi 1vice president and obi 2nd vice president in adc PBAT will beat them hands down. Why Atiku contributed to Nigeria weos years back as vice president he was in charge of all privatisations when all Nigeria assets where sold for pennies. Amechi shouldn't even talk at all because , all his wealth he acquired through stealing of public funds as a governor and as a minister. He is a crook. Obi is a deceiver, a chameleon. Politically obi has nothing to offer in politics. He manipulated Anambra people to believe that he left lots of money while leaving office as a governor that is not true that was what Obiano used to pay him back fir making him a governor that he didn't deserved, all the people talking that obi left money can any of present any proof Obi invested Anambra money in a company he has interest which is against the constitution but then Anambra governor Obiano was still protecting Obi. Obi is an eye service man, he is only trying to manipulate the gullibles you heard said if he is elected president the Northern will enjoy, that was a clear indication of his ways of pointing out to his failures only if those listening can ask him deep questions. The popularity of obi is not because he is better man but because the South east people hated PMB with passion and the same to PBAT. However hating someone is not what gives you the winning base but the loosing base.

I answer with 3 factors....

- The 'sacrifice' factor a line in Peter Obi's press release tells what the outcome would be...

- Half bread is better than non factor

- Future factor

What is the business of the evil preying eyes of the people who need the information.

When they get to the bridge they will cross it.

They are experienced enough to have a consensus and assertive to know that infiltrators will be lurking for any potential opening to decimate the party and cause friction amongst them.

El-rufai, Amaechi, Atiku and Peter Obi have stated that their primary goal is to win the elections as such know the huge task ahead especially with a Machiavellian like PBAT.

Congratulations to Tinubu in Advance if any error. Expect obedients for Tinubu movement soon ..NO waste of votes . This time a united coalition for southern one term presidency support. First choice PO. Or a Never seen before massive active national unsolicited support and vote for Tinubu from obedients movement. The obedient movement is above PO. PO is just a member.

Obedients are active ordinarily people yearning for good governance and justice. In Kano, Enugu ,Oyo, Jos, Sokoto, Taraba, Lagos , 37 units states of Nigeria federation

No one would step down for anyone. All aspirants would subject themselves to primaries. As popular as Buhari was in 2015 with his 12m supporters, he subjected himself to APC primaries. If Obi can't face Atiku in a primary, how does he intend to face Tinubu in the general election?

Obidients should take it easy. It's always pragmatic to manage expectations in order not to be disappointed. We all know the Southeast deserves the presidency and no better candidate than Obi right now from the South but there are Nigerians in other parts of the country as well who may not think so. Obi may need to do more to introduce himself to the North and warm himself into their hearts, but outright demand won't cut it.

Contrary to Obidients thinking he has the largest bloc of votes, he doesn't. In 2023, the North gave Tinubu 5.6m votes, gave Atiku 6.9m votes and gave Kwankwaso 1.4m votes. These are all presumed to be Northern Muslim votes because the Christians in the North voted Obi. You can see that when it comes to sheer numbers, the North has the advantage but that doesn't mean Northerners alone can make someone a president.

Hence why the essence of this coalition is to bring two collusus from both regions together to have that much needed handshake across the Niger in order to remove the government in power. It won't be done via threats nor outright demand but by negotiations, mutual respect, and political horsetrading. Threatening the North to vote Tinubu, if otherwise, is not really the threat they think it is. There are already Northern politicians waiting patiently to succeed Tinubu in 2031, and they will try to work for his re-election. The North never puts all its political eggs in one basket. Can't say the same for the East.

Likely Permutation for 2027:

Atiku is likely to step down for Obi after a series of persuasion and negotiation. He would claim he is stepping down based on health reasons, age, and fairness to the South—especially the Southeast. He would want to retire from the political stage and create a legacy of a "selfless leader" that sacrificed his ambition to pave the way for the Southeast presidency. But behind the scenes he would handpick the vice-presidential candidate.

It's just going to be like how Biden stepped down for Kamala Harris in the last USA election.