₦airaland Forum

I have come to the realization that we obidients are delusional.

I believe that the way Nigeria is structured and how powerful the ruling party is today, it will be impossible for Peter Obi to win an election without the backing of powerful men in Nigerian politics.

As it is, the incumbent and his cronies are bent on using every resource and power to break the will of the opposition and the Nigerian people.

One man alone cannot wrestle back power from these kinds of people even with the backing of the Nigerian masses. The Nigerian masses are powerless!

The way Nigeria is today, the citizens CANNOT even elect their choice of candidate for the presidency. The citizens cannot influence the elections no matter how much noise they make. Even we the obidients cannot effect any meaningful change no matter how much we try.

You can only effect change in Nigerian politics as an insider, not from the outside.

Even with the proposed electoral reforms, if Peter Obi contests against Bola Tinubu 100 times, he won't win a single time.

He would effectively be rigged out 100% of the time, unless he partners with other savvy politicians who are aware of the devices and strategies of the incumbent.

Due to this, if Peter Obi decides to run for presidency in 2027 WITHOUT THE BACKING OF THE COALITION, I will NOT vote for him. It would be a waste of time.

Obi has only 2 choices to defeat Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election:

- Convince the coalition movement to back him unequivocally as the Presidential candidate of ADC

- Accept the Vice Presidential slot and run with Atiku Abubakar and then get his chance after 8 years.

If Peter Obi makes the mistake of running on a separate platform again in 2027, then the whole activities of the obidient movement would just be a waste of time.

I drop my pen.

We at our great party ADC commends you for stating your opinion without fear or favour, but we equally condemns you for using vulgar word to display a particular group of people. You could have expressed yourself without calling Obidients delusional.

Una too dey threaten people na why I no like una

Obi is just another regular Nigerian politician, nothing more


Saint Obi my axx

Op, we Obidients roundly REJECT you and your SINGLE vote

Carry it, fold it with giftwrap paper and dash it to tilumbu

You are a 'flea' on an elephant 🐘 . . . NO LEVEL

Hahahaha 🤣😂 all these PDP mikanolite boys masquerading as obidients 😏

Slimani:
I have come to the realization that we obidients are delusional.

I believe that the way Nigeria is structured and how powerful the ruling party is today, it will be impossible for Peter Obi to win an election without the backing of powerful men in Nigerian politics.

As it is, the incumbent and his cronies are bent on using every resource and power to break the will of the opposition and the Nigerian people.

One man alone cannot wrestle back power from these kinds of people even with the backing of the Nigerian masses. The Nigerian masses are powerless!

The way Nigeria is today, the citizens CANNOT even elect their choice of candidate for the presidency. The citizens cannot influence the elections no matter how much noise they make. Even we the obidients cannot effect any meaningful change no matter how much we try.

You can only effect change in Nigerian politics as an insider, not from the outside.

Even with the proposed electoral reforms, if Peter Obi contests against Bola Tinubu 100 times, he won't win a single time.

He would effectively be rigged out 100% of the time, unless he partners with other savvy politicians who are aware of the devices and strategies of the incumbent.

Due to this, if Peter Obi decides to run for presidency in 2027 WITHOUT THE BACKING OF THE COALITION, I will NOT vote for him. It would be a waste of time.

Obi has only 2 choices to defeat Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election:

- Convince the coalition movement to back him unequivocally as the Presidential candidate of ADC

- Accept the Vice Presidential slot and run with Atiku Abubakar and then get his chance after 8 years.

If Peter Obi makes the mistake of running on a separate platform again in 2027, then the whole activities of the obidient movement would just be a waste of time.

I drop my pen.

If Obi decides to run without the backing of the coalition, will you vote tinubu or will you vote Atiku??

Slimani:
I have come to the realization that we obidients are delusional.

I believe that the way Nigeria is structured and how powerful the ruling party is today, it will be impossible for Peter Obi to win an election without the backing of powerful men in Nigerian politics.

As it is, the incumbent and his cronies are bent on using every resource and power to break the will of the opposition and the Nigerian people.

One man alone cannot wrestle back power from these kinds of people even with the backing of the Nigerian masses. The Nigerian masses are powerless!

The way Nigeria is today, the citizens CANNOT even elect their choice of candidate for the presidency. The citizens cannot influence the elections no matter how much noise they make. Even we the obidients cannot effect any meaningful change no matter how much we try.

You can only effect change in Nigerian politics as an insider, not from the outside.

Even with the proposed electoral reforms, if Peter Obi contests against Bola Tinubu 100 times, he won't win a single time.

He would effectively be rigged out 100% of the time, unless he partners with other savvy politicians who are aware of the devices and strategies of the incumbent.

Due to this, if Peter Obi decides to run for presidency in 2027 WITHOUT THE BACKING OF THE COALITION, I will NOT vote for him. It would be a waste of time.

Obi has only 2 choices to defeat Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election:

- Convince the coalition movement to back him unequivocally as the Presidential candidate of ADC

- Accept the Vice Presidential slot and run with Atiku Abubakar and then get his chance after 8 years.

If Peter Obi makes the mistake of running on a separate platform again in 2027, then the whole activities of the obidient movement would just be a waste of time.

I drop my pen.

I like the fact that, you obidients are now accepting reality.

Peter 0bi will never become the president of Nigeria

In 2023, the North gave Tinubu 5.6m votes, gave Atiku 6.9m votes and gave Kwankwaso 1.4m votes. These are all presumed to be Northern Muslim votes because the Christians in the North voted Obi. You can see that when it comes to sheer numbers, the North has the advantage but that doesn't mean Northerners alone can make someone a president.

Tinubu has lost a huge chunk of his Northern votes to Atiku so Atiku is set to pull better numbers this time than all 3 candidates although without Obi, he may not get the constitutional spread. On the other hand, it is hard to tell if Obi's Northern Christian votes are still intact. It's also hard to tell whether Obi's Southsouth votes are still intact with the decamping of virtually all the Southsouthern governors.

Even if Obi decamps and contests as a stand-alone candidate, his Southeastern voting bloc may be splitted between realistic Obidients like this Op who would want to hedge on the VP slot and die-hard Obidients. Despite all their threats, Obidients won’t be voting Tinubu. They would rather boycott the election leading to voter apathy.

Ddeliverer007:
If Obi decides to run without the backing of the coalition, will you vote tinubu or will you vote Atiku??

I won't vote at all.

I will vote for Obi only if he is backed by the coalition either as President or V.P. That's the only time he stands a chance.

AMINDA:
In 2023, the North gave Tinubu 5.6m votes, gave Atiku 6.9m votes and gave Kwankwaso 1.4m votes. These are all presumed to be Northern Muslim votes because the Christians in the North voted Obi. You can see that when it comes to sheer numbers, the North has the advantage but that doesn't mean Northerners alone can make someone a president.

Tinubu has lost a huge chunk of his Northern votes to Atiku so Atiku is set to pull better numbers this time than all 3 candidates although without Obi, he may not get the constitutional spread. On the other hand, it is hard to tell if Obi's Northern Christian votes are still intact. It's also hard to tell whether Obi's Southsouth votes are still intact with the decamping of virtually all the Southsouthern governors.

Even if Obi decamps and contests as a stand-alone candidate, his Southeastern voting bloc may be splitted between realistic Obidients like this Op who would want to hedge on the VP slot and die-hard Obidients. Despite all their threats, Obidients won’t be voting Tinubu. They would rather boycott the election leading to voter apathy.

You are very correct.

The onus is now on Peter Obi to take a stand. Either way, he's going to disappoint a few. But he needs to make a decision that gives him the best chance of securing his political future.

Slimani:
I won't vote at all.

I will vote for Obi only if he is backed by the coalition either as President or V.P. That's the only time he stands a chance.

I understand you tho. And I think you are right. But Obi + Elrufia (backed by the coalition) will defeat tinubu.
Atiku should play an elder statesman and support Obi.
I believe that’s the plan tho. It’s the south’s turn. Let the south have their 8years.

Their greatest Achille's heel is their tendency to focus on nonsense and irrelevant things.
They are vulgar, abusive and totally disconnected from the people they actually need to win.
Not to mention their sup par candidate.

Ddeliverer007:
I understand you tho. And I think you are right. But Obi + Elrufia (backed by the coalition) will defeat tinubu.
Atiku should play an elder statesman and support Obi.
I believe that’s the plan tho. It’s the south’s turn. Let the south have their 8years.

So, why the threats by some Obidients and Atiku supporters. They should allow the coalition to thrive, allow the primaries to take place and support whoever emerges as the ADC presidential candidate.

Atiku + Obi is the best pathway

Obi + A Strong Northerner (with Atiku's structure) is a good alternative.

Slimani:
You are very correct.

The onus is now on Peter Obi to take a stand. Either way, he's going to disappoint a few. But he needs to make a decision that gives him the best chance of securing his political future.

And what decision could he make that would give him the best chance of securing his political future?

agentADC:
We at our great party ADC commends you for stating your opinion without fear or favour, but we equally condemns you for using vulgar word to display a particular group of people. You could have expressed yourself without calling Obidients delusional.

You are really working hard for your 20,000 naira only.

Op very spot on! I like when people think critically, not emotionally as most so-called "obidients" have been/still doing.

Politics isn't emotion, but strategy, horse-trading, winning people over.. Not throwing tantrums and issuing threat all over social media.

====
I doubt Atiku will pick Obi as running mate, should Atiku win primaries. He might go for Amaechi instead. That's my thinking. But let's see how events play out.

Slimani:
So, why the threats by some Obidients and Atiku supporters. They should allow the coalition to thrive, allow the primaries to take place and support whoever emerges as the ADC presidential candidate.

Atiku + Obi is the best pathway

Obi + A Strong Northerner (with Atiku's structure) is a good alternative.

The only issue is most obidients won’t vote for an Atiku. Myself included. Obidients know the coalition might not give Obi the ticket knowing how an Atiku does his primaries. Those are the issues.

Ddeliverer007:
The only issue is most obidients won’t vote for an Atiku. Myself included. Obidients know the coalition might not give Obi the ticket knowing how an Atiku does his primaries. Those are the issues.

A good number of obidients myself included, will vote for Atiku if he chooses Obi as his vice.

The coalition can further appease disgruntled obidients like you if Atiku makes a pact or proposal that gives Peter Obi a reasonable amount of power and control in the government.

All in all, both sides will have to make some sacrifices for the coalition plan to come to fruition.

Ofunaofu:
And what decision could he make that would give him the best chance of securing his political future?

Only Peter Obi knows, and can make that decision for himself.