₦airaland Forum

As a strong Obidient who also believes in Peter Obi, I strongly agree with Kenneth Okonkwo.


To defeat Tinubu, Northwest, Northeast and Southeast votes must be completely locked no matter the rigging.

We must factor in INEC and the security. Tinubu's only confidence and assurance to win a reelection is in massive rigging of the 2027 Presidential election.


To counter his plans and make it come to nothing, the coalition must work together to lock the overwhelming votes that will come from:

Northwest
Northeast
Southeast


and the only way to lock those votes is by using a strong Northerner like Atiku or El Rufai as the Presidential flagbearer with a strong Southeasterner like Peter Obi as the Vice or Running mate.


With Atiku/Obi ticket, Tinubu may not even contest because he knows he is gone already.


With Atiku/Obi ticket, nobody born of a woman can rig:


Northwest
Northeast
Southeast


and live to tell the story. Any attempt to change the result like 2023 will lead to national chaos which may turn to full national revolution.



The coalition should not make the mistake of allowing a Southerner get the ticket if not Tinubu will win.


We must be realistic in our calculations.


The whole North are angry with Tinubu, they are the ones to lead the voting out of Tinubu alongside Igbos whom Tinubu ignored/sidelined. And the North don't have the level of enlightenment we Southerners have, they have a voting pattern. Despite what Tinubu did for Buhari and picking a Muslim as Vice, plus constant donations to the North in the past, Northerners were still reluctant to vote for Tinubu in 2023 such that Tinubu had to open Lagos state treasury vault to buy INEC to help him out which is why Tinubu has been angry with the North, now think about it, is it Peter Obi, an Igbo man that the North will troop out en masse to vote for in 2027?


Northerners usually prefer their own, so if we are sure we want to unseat Tinubu in 2027, the coalition party must field Atiku and Obi in one ticket. Tambuwal cannot do it, El Rufai and Obi can also do it but Atiku is the best man to fly the coalition ticket.



Anybody telling Obi and Obedients otherwise is trying to gaslight them so that Tinubu will win

K. Okonkwo has some personal issues against Obi and he's ready to lose everything just to get at Obi

princeade86:
That's a big lie. Let coalition pick obi and el rufia as running mate and let see how tinubu will win the election.

You guys sef
After what happened in Kd you want Elrufai as VP

I agree with him, Obi shud look at the long term strategy, let Atiku go now and emilokan him 4 years later

Atiku will perform poorly in the south even if he pick Obi. It’s a fact. Atiku can’t pull northern votes.

It's not about Obi's popularity
Everyone knows Obi is popular at least even by the last election results
But the big issue is how to counter the obvious plan by Tinubu to harvest northern votes in large numbers. This can only be achieved by having a Northerner run even if it's for a single term.
Any other thing and the prevailing sentiment in the north will be to let Tinubu finish his term and go. No Northerner will willingly vote for the possibility of a 12 year southern rule no matter the flowery language you cover it

Let’s speak the hard truth. No southern candidate, not even His Excellency Peter Obi can defeat Bola Tinubu in 2027. If Peter Obi genuinely loves this country and is not driven by ego or personal ambition, he must make the necessary sacrifice and support a northern candidate for the presidency.

That said, no southern figure would make a stronger running mate than Peter Obi. If the opposition presents this kind of united North-South ticket, just watch how the APC will go into panic mode. The ripple effect will be instant: the naira could stabilize, the dollar could drop to ₦500, fuel to ₦300, and a bag of rice to ₦30,000.

But if Nigerians repeat the same mistake of a divided opposition, brace yourself. The dollar may hit ₦2,000, fuel ₦1,500, and a bag of rice ₦150,000. The consequences of disunity are too dire to ignore.

Shameless yeye failed actor. Ran away from apc because nobody look him side.
Not different from reno and bwala

givedemwotowoto:
Wrong. Both Peter Obi and/or Atiku will defeat Tinubu at the polls, but Peter Obi has a higher chance of defeating Tinubu than Atiku.

Peter Obi defeated Tinubu in a 3-horse race in 2023 and will defeat him again in 2027.

Stop being naive
Just stop it

Hhjjjkllllllllllll

drstranged:
You've forgotten the power of incumbency. I believe Okonkwo on this

Not true... And you think that SS and SE will vote Atiku instead of Tinubu? Remove Obi from the polls and see Tinubu win before 12pm on that day.

From a tribe of betrayals, even if you support them they will not recognise you, as long as you an Igbo man they still dump you.

CryptoPornster:
https://thesun.ng/2027-presidency-tinubu-will-win-if-coalition-picks-southerner-kenneth-okonkwo/

so u expect buhari to finish 8years as a northener then someone from d south will do 4 years. Den do take it back to the north for 8 years.?

We aren't ready for development in Nigeria. Politics is that y'all think about not actual governance.

SmartEnergyng:
https://www.nairaland.com/8470237/kenneth-okonkwo-fiction-northern-voting
Kenneth Okonkwo and the Fiction of a Northern Voting Monolith
When Nollywood meets political naivety, the result is national comedy.

Kenneth Okonkwo’s latest appearance on Channels TV is the kind of political performance best left on a movie set. His claim—that only a northern heavyweight like Atiku can defeat President Tinubu in 2027—isn’t analysis; it’s lazy fiction, penned by an armchair Nollywood analyst mistaking regional myths for political science.

To start, there is no such thing as a single northern voting bloc. That fantasy belongs in a poorly written script, not on a national stage. The so-called “12 million Buharist vote bank” was not transferrable, and certainly not to Atiku. Buhari earned that number through decades of grassroots hustle, not borrowed glory.

Even with that mythical northern clout, Buhari lost in 2003 and 2011 to Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan, both from the South. If a man who actually had the North couldn’t unseat a southern incumbent, how then does Kenneth believe Atiku—perpetually rejected by even his hometown—can do what Buhari could not?

Kenneth, once Peter Obi’s spokesman, now dances clumsily in Atiku’s corner like a man who changes loyalty the way a confused actor changes costumes—hoping one will finally land him the lead role. His political compass swings wildly, not with principle, but with the desperation of relevance.

He speaks of strategy, yet thinks in stereotypes. He analyses elections the way a child reads fables—believing that geography trumps character, and that recycled candidates inspire revolutions.

Nigeria deserves better than this tired, tribalist tale.

Your points aren’t valid and I doubt you actually read the article in full. It seems you based your comment solely on the headline. Did you notice where he mentioned “northern political heavyweights”?

Let me ask you this:

Do you know how many of those same northern heavyweights backed Obasanjo in 1999 and 2003 before he could win?

How many supported Jonathan in 2011 before he defeated Buhari?

And how many of these same so-called political giants threw their weight behind Tinubu in 2023 to help him overcome Atiku?

The real question is: How many of those northern political heavyweights are still willing to support Tinubu in 2027?

If you truly understand Nigerian politics, you’d realize it’s not about titles, it’s about alliances, timing, and perception.

MYKELDAYO:
so u expect buhari to finish 8years as a northener then someone from d south will do 4 years. Den do take it back to the north for 8 years.?

Oga, pls stop this sentiment. Who told you the southerners have been fair to the north in this current dispensation?

mathematically the north should produce the next President. This is my analysis: South: OBJ: 8yrs + Jonathan 6yrs + Tinubu 4yrs - that’s a total of 18yrs for south. North: Yaradua 2yrs + Buhari 8yrs - that’s a total of 10yrs. Giving Tinubu another 4yrs means south would have done a total of 22yrs and north: 10yrs.

Our mumu never do?
What have we gained so far from regional politics?
PMB showed everybody shege.
BAT is showing us shege banza.

Peter Obi might show us damburuba shege.

If that former afdb pres- Akinwumi Adesina or Dapo Abiodun comes, or even Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, or Pat Utomi....we will put them at par with Peter Obi.

We want progress, not regionalisation.

Wrong analysis Kenneth, to defeat Tinubu the coalition needs a strong Christian candidate from south with a voice from north that will share southern votes with Tinubu and with the suffering in the country the north will not vote Tinubu because they feel betrayed. But if a northern Fulani candidate is fielded, Tinubu will take majority of southern votes, North Central would prefer to vote Tinubu than vote a Fulani man as president while NW & NE christians would still prefer to vote Tinubu for being fair to the Christians in the north than another Fulani that will come and give power to only muslims and completely marginalize Christians again

Kenneth Okonkwo don chop tuwo shinkafa with anu jaki...He has thrown Peter Obi under the bus.

“It must be a northerner that the whole north is willing to support.

“If the whole north is willing to support an Atiku, why not?

It's Atiku/Obi O'clock

Ibman:
Wrong analysis Kenneth, to defeat Tinubu the coalition needs a strong Christian candidate from south with a voice from north that will share southern votes with Tinubu and with the suffering in the country the north will not vote Tinubu because they feel betrayed. But if a northern Fulani candidate is fielded, Tinubu will take majority of southern votes, North Central would prefer to vote Tinubu than vote a Fulani man as president while NW & NE christians would still prefer to vote Tinubu for being fair to the Christians in the north than another Fulani that will come and give power to only muslims and completely marginalize Christians again

The Northern Christians will vote for the coalition. No tribe holy pass. Your take is an assumption that has no basis

And you will be happy if they pick northerner and sacrifice ur southerners because you hate him

givedemwotowoto:
Wrong. Both Peter Obi and/or Atiku will defeat Tinubu at the polls, but Peter Obi has a higher chance of defeating Tinubu than Atiku.

Peter Obi defeated Tinubu in a 3-horse race in 2023 and will defeat him again in 2027.

I am a strong Obidient from Anambra state but I am not delusional.

If Obi defeated Tinubu in 2023 how come Tinubu is in Aso Rock running the Afairs of the country?

Peter Obi is the most qualified candidate from 2023 and till date but if the coalition field him, he will still be defeated by Tinubu either by hook or crook. Nigerian factor will still play against him. You don't expect Northerner to troop out and threaten fire if the election is rigged against Obi. You don't expect them to burn Tinubu posters and send a strong message of resentment to Tinubu just because of Obi.

Northerners have the highest voting strength and I don't know how their politicians speak to them and they all align.

Tinubu supporter are pushing the narratives that it is the south turn so that Obi will be fielded so as to make ther win easier.

If Obi won 2023 election and Tinubu is ruling why do you think that same thing won't repeat itself come 2027?

To get power from Tinubu, a Northerner is not just needed but Atiku Abubbakar must be the coalitions candidate. Anything outside that is another political mistake. If Obi and Atiku had contested together in 2023, they would have been in Aso Rock today.

Keep sentiment and face reality Sir. An Igbo man can't win a presidential election from opposition. It will even be hard for any southerner to achieve this because of the heavy division down here, unlike up there.

Do with this fact whatever you wish.

CryptoPornster:
https://thesun.ng/2027-presidency-tinubu-will-win-if-coalition-picks-southerner-kenneth-okonkwo/

Obidients

Will drag u

I'm deeply sorry about that

No southern candidate can defeat Tinubu,I agree with him….politics is not done with emotions or feelings but tactics

Atiku is a strong northern candidate In 2023 election why didn't he win with Northern vote? OBI without any support from any political bigweight and even contest under a very unpopular party could secure 6million vote plus even with all the magomago against this man nor tell u say na obi go fit win this election, make Atiku try am na under unknown party make we see how many vote him go get, obi is the biggest political figure right now in Nigeria

mikeapollo:
Tinubu was not the president in 2023, so all of them were on equal footing.. Now as president, Peter Obi cannot defeat Tinubu because Tinubu will use all the money and powers of the presidency to get some good votes in the north, unless there is a strong northerner to counter him, especially Atiku
An Atiku/Obi ticket will defeat Tinubu hands down in 2027.

Arostar2023:
Not true... And you think that SS and SE will vote Atiku instead of Tinubu? Remove Obi from the polls and see Tinubu win before 12pm on that day.

Funny enough you can't remove Obi from the polls. He'd either contest as VP to Atiku in which case Atiku gets a substantial vote from SE/SS or he leaves the coalition to become presidential candidate in another party in which case he'd massively split Tinubu's votes from SS/SE

Arostar2023:
Not true... And you think that SS and SE will vote Atiku instead of Tinubu? Remove Obi from the polls and see Tinubu win before 12pm on that day.

Funny enough you can't remove Obi from the polls. He'd either contest as VP to Atiku in which case Atiku gets a substantial vote from SE/SS or he leaves the coalition to become presidential candidate in another party in which case he'd massively split Tinubu's votes from SS/SE. This will give Atiku a free ride up north

Kenneth Okonkwo is confused and just trying to be relevant …..It’s Obi we want

I love Kenneth Okonkwo. He is not being sentimental one bit. Nigerian presidential elections is rotational since 1999. Never has a southerner handed over to a southerner. And Northerners with their dominating mentality will use that as an excuse of better Tinubu completes his 8 years than to handover to a southerner who will do another 8 years and leave them out of Aso Rock for a longer period

Iamsane:
Kenneth know Peter Obi more than any 0bi-ediot will ever know him. Now he is telling you guys the truth but you guys are choosing delusion and nonsense. Ire o.

The discussion here isn't about who knows Peter Obi better. It's about using intuition to analyse political trends and predict the possible outcomes when certain variables/candidates are considered.