₦airaland Forum

Osun: A willing suitor Vs unwilling bride

By Ismail Omipidan

These are indeed interesting times in Osun State. There is nothing happening today that did not happen in 2014 when Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola was seeking re-election. The key difference, however, is that unlike Governor Ademola Adeleke, Aregbesola never contemplated defecting to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the centre, let alone displayed the kind of desperation we now see from our governor, some of his supporters, and handlers.

Before I go further, let me make a few confessions. I know some people will curse and abuse me for this. That’s nothing new. If you have anything meaningful or constructive to discuss, I’ll gladly engage you. But if your response is limited to insults and curses, may they follow you, Bi'iznillah. Now, to the confessions: I have nothing personal against Governor Adeleke. My opposition to him dates back to 2018 even before I met immediate past Governor of the state, Adegboyega Oyetola.

I recalled that on July 5, 2019, after the Supreme Court's verdict that confirmed Oyetola as the winner of the 2018 election, I stated among other things that the absence of a strong leadership in the PDP in the South-West contributed to why candidate Ademola Adeleke emerged the party’s flag bearer. I argued that were there to be a strong and coordinated leadership in the zone, it would have ensured candidate Ademola Adeleke did not participate in the primaries, let alone emerged the party’s candidate.

I went further to assert that what played out in Osun in 2018 was not necessarily a show of love for the then “Dancing Senator,” but rather a protest vote, an outpouring of anger against the APC and its leadership in the state. I had supported him in 2017 when he ran for the Senate, largely because I felt the family was not fairly treated by Aregbesola. However, after his election, which, in my view, signalled the beginning of APC’s political decline in Osun, it became clear to me that beyond his dancing, there was little to show in terms of legislative performance.

So, when he declared his interest in the governorship seat in 2018 and I was approached by some top PDP figures outside Osun to lend my support, I made it clear, without mincing words, that he had nothing to offer the state. That position, I must add, has not changed, not then, not now.

It is on that premise that I am compelled to educate some commentators who have been canvassing strongly for our governor to be accorded a red carpet treatment into the APC.

Yes, by virtue of INEC's position and the Supreme Court verdict, he won the 2022 governorship election by about 27,000 votes, aided, no doubt, by several irregularities, including voting that continued until 11 p.m. in Ede, with the connivance of some security operatives. In the 2023 presidential election, despite Adeleke wielding the full weight of state power and all that comes with it and with the collective working of some top party bigwigs in the state, the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, managed to win Osun by a slim margin of just 10,000 votes.

For the sake of clarity, these are the results of two elections: 2022 Governorship: APC-375,027 (46.63%) PDP-403,371 (50.20%).

2023 Presidential: APC-343,945 (46.91%) PDP-354,366 (48.33%).

Today, however, many of the PDP bigwigs in Osun, including Omoba Dotun Babayemi, Hon. Wole Oke, Kayode Oduoye, and Baba Shuaibu Oyedokun, along with thousands of their supporters across Osun West, Central, and East, have all defected to the APC. These individuals were instrumental in mobilising the votes the PDP recorded in both the 2022 and 2023 elections. Their defection has further strengthened the APC in the state.

With the result of the 2023 presidential election in Osun, if anyone still thinks President Tinubu needs a Adeleke to win Osun in 2027, just know that you are so delusional in your thinking.

At this moment, aside from perhaps Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, there is no politician of note in Osun that is openly aligning with Governor Adeleke. Therefore, admitting the governor into the APC would be not only counterproductive but politically dangerous, especially because the marriage proposal for alliance resembles a case of a willing suitor pursuing an unwilling bride. Any political 'marriage' formed under such circumstances is bound to collapse sooner rather than later.

As I pen this down, I’m aware that some supporters and loyalists of Aregbesola are open and willing to return to the APC. However, Ademola Adeleke’s defection would certainly make them change their minds.

If those within the APC who often boast of being political savvy, yet have little to show in terms of results, succeed in bringing Governor Ademola Adeleke into the party for their own selfish interests, these scenarios are likely to unfold.

First, those who left the PDP for the APC because of the governor may be forced to dump the party and possibly team up with Rauf Aregbesola and work against APC's interests. Second, long-standing APC members who, out of principle, choose to stay may undermine the party from within, particularly during elections, by quietly working for the candidate of the Aregbesola-led ADC. Third, another group within the APC will simply adopt a “siddon look” posture, withdrawing from active participation altogether. None of these scenarios is good for the APC and the damage may be long-lasting.

Finally, I do not believe our governor ranks among our first eleven in Osun. Having given us his best so far, I make bold to say that another four years under his leadership would be nothing short of tragic for the state and its people. We have endured enough from our governor -- the gaffes, the embarrassing moments, and the less-than-ideal optics. Even in the entertainment sector, where many expected him to make a mark given his well-known dancing prowess, there’s been little to show after nearly three years in office. Eyi ti won se to. E je ki won mu omi si. For the sake of Osun's future, let's try another hand, please.

Omipidan, a journalist and an author writes from Abuja and can be reached. @OmipidanIsmail

I pity Adeleke re-election bid here. He will be consumed with his decamping to APC.

If Adeleke remain in PDP he will not only lose the election but he will be irrelevant in Nigerian politics so the best is to decamp.

Every good politician knows this.

DixseenMktPlace:
If Adeleke remain in PDP he will not only lose the election but he will be irrelevant in Nigerian politics so the best is to decamp.

Every good politician knows this.

it's a bad advice. Definitely he has no political values in Osun State politics. Osun State is different from other State in terms of playing politics. I pity Adeleke here.

Politicstoday:
it's a bad advice. Definitely he has no political values in Osun State politics. Osun State is different from other State in terms of playing politics. I pity Adeleke here.

You and I know the president will do everything to make sure PDP don't humiliate him in Osun , this is the best route for Adeleke as Tinubu cam be very ruthless politically

SalamRushdie:
You and I know the president will do everything to make sure PDP don't humiliate him in Osun , this is the best route for Adeleke as Tinubu cam be very ruthless politically

APC will succeed in Osun State without Adeleke. See Osun State politics is highly different. Tinubu miscalculated here. Adeleke will be defeated as the electorates will votes enmass against him .

With or without Adeleke APC is a history in Osun. People have had their enough rascality.

OK

just lead your people well



that is what matters


Princess Faith Chukwuamaka

The best place to port to is the ADC.
Everybody knows that the PDP is finished patspata.
APC has nothing good to offer.
Watch your back o!

Since the new coalition ,every politicians will calculate extensively before joining the APC...so maybe the governor is trying to see how the coalition will work out before choosing a party to consider but one thing is sure ...if he doesn't want to be humiliated in 2027 ,he should work for the citizens of osun state and make sure he stay far away from APC because APC will face great challenges if ADC coalition becomes united and come up with a credible candidate

Even though I prefer ADELEKE TO OYETOLA, HE IS NOT DOING ENOUGH...ASIDE PLAY POLICIES, ADELEKE needs to roll up his sleeves and work.

No joy for obedients ...Osun is bagged for JAGABAN😎😎

JAGABAN #2027

Politics in 2025 for elections in 2027…

Every other aspect of the economy automatically takes a back seat. And the cycle continues. Affirming the belief!!! They’re all about their interests. They give no fvcks about anyone!!!

It’s interest
Interest
Interest 😏😏😏😏😏

Eleph:
The best place to port to is the ADC.
Everybody knows that the PDP is finished patspata.
APC has nothing good to offer.
Watch your back o!

Neither does Adeleke have anything to offer. ADC is still a combination of losers & looters from APC, PDP / LP.
No rescue team yet for the Nigerian masses

All what journalist Omipidan said here is 100% facts. If Adeleke is popular, he should contest in PDP now.

As I pen this down, I’m aware that some supporters and loyalists of Aregbesola are open and willing to return to the APC. However, Ademola Adeleke’s defection would certainly make them change their minds.

So, all these years of neither being here nor there, Aregbe followers are now waiting for Ademola to decide before they head to ADC or return back to APC

Osun APC and propaganda are 5 and 6 ...see the Federal Roads going bad they have nothing to say about that or tell Uncle Bola to do something, it is to be throwing false narratives up and down. The fact that PDP at the National level is already shaky shaky doesn't mean each State that has a performing Governor can't hold itself. You are at the center, can you honestly tell us what you have brought to the table for Osun people, abi shouldn't you be Mr President favorite pikin. You are not even thinking of Mr President campaign and what you would say, it is Dancing Governor you are troubling up and down .

As of today in Osun State politics…

Adeleke as incumbent governor get 40%
APC get 35%
While ADC get 25%

If you’re familiar with politics, you won’t have issues contesting this.

So I believe Adeleke is in trouble and negotiating with APC is his best option.

Adeleke four years of dancing never tire you ?...even psquare retired from dancing after their 2nd album .


Leave governing for serious minded folks , you can opt to dance for AY live or Peller's childish tiktok live stream.

Politicstoday:
APC will succeed in Osun State without Adeleke. See Osun State politics is highly different. Tinubu miscalculated here. Adeleke will be defeated as the electorates will votes enmass against him .

He's that unpopular? Why?

___
27 more characters needed.

Eleph:
The best place to port to is the ADC.
Everybody knows that the PDP is finished patspata.
APC has nothing good to offer.
Watch your back o!

BEST WHERE?
ADC no go see broad DAYLIGHT of 2027.. its a waste of TIME, ko lo FAR RARA... Association of Dangerous/DEAD CONTESTANTS aka ADC

This is not trying to downgrade Governor Adeleke but how will Osun electorates preferred Governor Adeleke to formal Governor Oyetola in the first place is something that I found difficult to comprehend. If you rejected a qualify and competent doctor because you hate a certain relative of the doctor and go for a less qualify and competent doctor,then whatsoever you got accept it.

With the result of the 2023 presidential election in Osun, if anyone still thinks President Tinubu needs a Adeleke to win Osun in 2027, just know that you are so delusional in your thinking.

Who told you is about winning Osun state by Tinubu? We are talking about wide margins in the South...Tinubu wants above 1M votes in Osun State alone in 2027. This can only happen if we collapsed PDP into APC. Ogbeni so go and rest!

Blame the judiciary.
They are totally responsible for all these.
By keeping quiet and allowing the president to continuously truncate democracy through all sorts of methods like elections riggings and unlawful declarations of state of emergencies, the judiciary forced the political opponents of the president to drop their guns and be forced into an unholy embrace with a totally corrupt presidency..

Adeleke should better remain in PDP.All he just need to is to continue doing more project and endear himself to the masses except he is afraid that no matter his good performances he may be rigged out.

I remember when many off my APC friends boasted to me that Makinde will be flushed out from office 2 years ago even with all the massive construction work that Makinde was conducting all over Oyo state.

On Election day,the masses stood by Makinde large because of his visible performance just like lagosians voted for Sanwo Olu because of his performance in lagos state.

Omipidan is trying to make sure the Blue Economy pay him more... All lies.

You have showed you had no capacity.... Babayemi the PDP expelled since Sept 2022 worked for Atiku in 2023 , who are the supporters those you mentioned have?

Adeleke won all the NASS and won 25/26 House of Assembly seats excepting the one he mercifully gave Oyetola in his Constituency.

Adeleke must join APC. Thank you Bola.

In a sane world Adeleke don’t have to decamp before winning the election but the kind of politics and the electoral system we have everyone have to pleased the central power before you can be re-elected… Jagaban is not Jonathan that gives a freehand

Adeleke has lost the aura he came in with in 2022, and he would lose woefully in 2026—this is clear. Bringing him on board now will destroy the cohesion in the party. I am strongly against bringing him in. He played very dirty and bad politics in the last three years. Men were murdered in cold blood, Ilesha was on fire, Ife was mad—blood all around. And you expect APC guys to bring him in? Things don't work that way. Demola cannot be trusted; if allowed into Apc, the first thing he would do is seize the political structure. Someone that is already asking for a National Secretary position—you should know he knows what's up and may be a snitch for the prematured ADC. Whoever is trying to facilitate this move for him is a traitor and does not really understand the dynamics of what is on the ground. The crux of the matter is, APC will win without Demola.