₦airaland Forum

In Nigerian politics, perception is power and strategy, everything. The 2023 general elections revealed not just a clash of manifestos or personalities, but the unfolding of a grand, well-executed political chess game. And sadly, it appears Peter Obi, the candidate many believed to be the face of a "new Nigeria," may have unknowingly been the perfect pawn on someone else's board.

Let’s break it down.

In the South, Peter Obi rode a wave of youth-driven momentum, winning over hearts with powerful rhetoric, clean image, and emotional resonance, especially after the trauma of the EndSARS protests. But while many voted for him with the hope of defeating the old political order, the outcome was quite the opposite: his emergence deeply fractured the PDP’s vote base, especially in the South where the party traditionally held sway.

Take a closer look at the 2023 results. These are core PDP states where Peter Obi won:

Delta State – PDP stronghold, yet Obi took it convincingly.

Edo State – Traditionally PDP, but swung in favor of Obi.

Enugu State – PDP-controlled, yet Obi secured a landslide.

Anambra State – A given for Obi, but also a historic PDP stronghold.

Abia, Imo, and Ebonyi States – All former PDP bastions that turned to Labour in 2023.

FCT Abuja – A critical PDP base, yet Obi clinched it too.

In these states alone, Atiku lost hundreds of thousands of potential votes; votes he would have needed to mount a strong national challenge. And these weren’t marginal losses. In places like Enugu and Anambra, Obi didn’t just win, he obliterated the competition, leaving PDP with crumbs.

Meanwhile, in the North, another figure, Rabiu Kwankwaso played a similar role. Though not as electorally successful, his presence chipped away at Atiku’s northern Muslim base, especially in Kano, a key northern power center.

So who benefited from all this division? Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Let’s not forget: after the EndSARS movement, Tinubu’s image was badly damaged, particularly in Lagos and across southern Nigeria. He understood something critical, he had lost the emotional vote of the South. In fact, he knew that if Nigerians had to choose between him and the devil, many southern youths would have gladly voted for the devil just to get back at him.

So he pivoted.

The strategy? If I can’t win their vote, I’ll make sure my biggest opponent, Atiku doesn’t get it either.

The solution? Promote an alternative. Fund a neutral force. Divide the enemy’s house from within.

Rumors still swirl, some credible, some speculative that parts of the Labour Party campaign and mobilization received discreet support from Tinubu-linked figures. Why? Because a strong Obi candidacy was the most effective way to neutralize the PDP in its own territory. And it worked.

In the end, Tinubu won with just over 36% of the vote, the lowest margin of victory in Nigerian presidential history. Imagine if even half of Obi’s 6 million votes had gone to Atiku. The story would have been very different.

The Dangerous Déjà Vu of 2027

Now, with another election cycle looming, there are troubling signs we may be heading toward a repeat of 2023.

Peter Obi’s recent posture, his solo outings, isolated commentaries, and rigid independence suggest not just ambition but a kind of desperation that may put personal pursuit above national strategy. His statements and body language give the impression of a man obsessed with proving he can win alone, no matter the cost.

But here’s the problem: Nigeria cannot afford another fragmented South.

If Obi runs again on a separate ticket in 2027, and another southern candidate, perhaps even Tinubu himself remains in the race, the South will split. The North, on the other hand, may finally unite behind a consensus candidate, most likely Atiku or someone else from the northern establishment. And in that case, the outcome will be predictable: a landslide win for the North.

In 2023, Obi was used wittingly or unwittingly as a tool to break PDP’s dominance in the South. In 2027, the same forces may retool that strategy, this time to weaken Tinubu or any other southern contender. And once again, the North may walk into Aso Rock unchallenged.

A Call for Strategic Patriotism

This is not a call to silence Peter Obi, nor to demonize his ambitions. He has every right to run, and his influence is undeniable. But the bigger question remains: Is he willing to be a patriot first before a president?

Nigeria’s problems are bigger than one man’s quest for office. The enemies of progress thrive when the opposition is divided. If Peter Obi truly wants to liberate the people, then he must realize that personal ambition must bow to collective strategy. Otherwise, history may repeat itself, and once again, he’ll be the pawn that cleared the path for someone else’s victory.

This I have seen.

Tinubu failed to unit the entire south,he completely sidelines the entire south east,now you people want us to support a president because he is from the south,it will never work,we are going into coalition.

edochie12:
Tinubu failed to unit the entire south,he completely sidelines the entire south east,now you people want us to support a president because he is from the south,it will never work,we are going into coalition.

Contrary to most people opinions, especially the camp of APC, it might be far more difficult for Tinubu to win the forthcoming election. Either Obi joins the coalition or decides to work independently, he might be another pawn but this time around to split APC votes. Tinubu’s banker’s strategy right now is the south. If Obi comes out from any party, that block votes will be divided evenly. However, with the Buhari’s demise, any opposition candidate stands a better chance to clear the majority of the northern vote.

ibabz:
Contrary to most people opinions, especially the camp of APC, it might be far more difficult for Tinubu to win the forthcoming election. Either Obi joins the coalition or decides to work independently, he might be another pawn but this time around to split APC votes. Tinubu’s banker’s strategy right now is the south. If Obi comes out from any party, that block votes will be divided evenly. However, with the Buhari’s demise, any opposition candidate stands a better chance to clear the majority of the northern vote.

Why bother yourself about Peter Obi? I thought that you guys said that he was working for Tinubu then.

Make una leave PO abeg.

Obi is a Pawn.

Elusive001:
Why bother yourself about Peter Obi? I thought that you guys said that he was working for Tinubu then.

Make una leave PO abeg.

Noted sir

Peter Obi is a pawn in the ADC chess game. Too glaring, too obvious .

What's Peter Obi's stake in ADC?

Elusive001:
Why bother yourself about Peter Obi? I thought that you guys said that he was working for Tinubu then.

Make una leave PO abeg.

Allow others to express themselves without being an opinion killer

Why didn't Atiku use those PDP support base to win Buhari in 2019 presidential election?