₦airaland Forum

The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari has reignited speculations about the political future of his loyalists, particularly those from the now-defunct Congress for Progressive Change, the party he founded in 2009.

Since the emergence of President Bola Tinubu in 2023, the influence of CPC loyalists has waned, with some key figures such as ex-Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, openly opposing Tinubu’s potential second-term bid.

With Buhari’s passing, analysts believe the All Progressives Congress may face renewed challenges from the late leader’s formidable cult-like followership, long estimated at over 12 million.

Tensions have begun to surface between the APC and the African Democratic Congress, with both parties vying to attract Buhari’s political base. The development follows remarks by former military Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, who suggested that the former President’s death could reshape Nigeria’s political dynamics.

“That shows the magnitude of what has befallen Nigeria,” Abdulsalami said of the impact of Buhari’s death. “With the passing away of Buhari, politics in Nigeria will certainly change — I hope for the better.”

Meanwhile, ADC’s interim National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, claimed in an interview with The PUNCH that several of Buhari’s close allies had already joined their coalition.

“Most of the Buhari loyalists are already with us,” Abdullahi said. “The majority of them, the entire North is already with our party. We are very confident. The passing of the former President will only cement that for us because that was his wish when he was alive — that his members should join the coalition.”

He added, “As you can see, there is a strong representation of CPC and Buhari loyalists in the senior ranks of the coalition — the likes of Babachir Lawal, Abubakar Malami, Isah Pantami, Emeka Nwajuba, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Rauf Aregbesola and the rest of them. Those are Buhari people. And their presence in the leadership of the coalition indicates that that’s where Buhari stood.”

Abdullahi added that Buhari’s legacy would be preserved by the coalition, arguing that the APC had alienated and vilified the late president during his lifetime.

“Why would they remain part of the APC?” he asked. “Is it because they enjoy the humiliation and the exclusion they have suffered? Or is it because they’ve watched the government demonise the legacy of Buhari while he was alive?”

He also accused the Tinubu-led administration of scapegoating Buhari for Nigeria’s economic difficulties. “President Tinubu’s government has blamed Buhari for almost every economic woe. So, why would Buhari followers or loyalists remain with the APC?”

Key figures from the defunct CPC who remain within the APC include former Nasarawa State Governor, Senator Tanko Al-Makura; Babale Ila, Ibrahim Gobir; Senator Ibrahim Musa; Sanusi Aliyu; Mohammed Tukur; Senator Ahmed Sani; Ibrahim Chachangi; Yusuf Bala; and the party’s current North West National Vice Chairman, Garuba Datti.

Others still in the party are Katsina State Governor, Dikko Radda; Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission, M.B. Shehu; Chairman of the NDLEA, retired General Buba Marwa; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Bello Masari; Adamu Farouk; Okoi Obono-Obla; former DG of the Voice of Nigeria, Osita Okechukwu; Senator Ibrahim Musa; and Nasiru Argungu.

Also remaining are former Katsina State Governor Aminu Masari; Nasarawa State Governor Abdullahi Sule; Adamu Adamu; Senator Mustafa Salihu; Almajiri Geidam; Waziri Bulama; Dr. Nasiru Argungu; Dr. Dominic Alancha; Ayuba Balami; Lucy Ajayi; Captain Bala Jibrin; Uche Ufearoh; Yusuf Salih; and Alkali Ajikolo, among others.

However, party sources told The PUNCH that while many of these figures are actively working for the APC ahead of the 2027 elections, not all are expected to stay. Some aggrieved members, particularly those who feel sidelined since former President Buhari’s exit from power, may eventually defect from the party.

Another member of the ADC coalition and former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West) Salihu Lukman, said Buhari’s death marked the end of an era in which political endorsement from the late President practically guaranteed electoral success.

Speaking on Arise TV, Lukman said, “What we must learn, most especially in the coalition, is that we don’t have somebody with the kind of intimidating profile like that of the late Buhari. Our leaders must have a kind of team spirit.

“It is not about succeeding to defeat APC and Tinubu, but succeeding to produce a new, fresh political template that will begin to meet the expectations of Nigerians.”

He urged politicians to demonstrate humility, honour their promises, and reconnect with citizens.

“I know that many politicians look forward to him raising their hands and endorsing them. That translates almost into victory in many places in the North. Now we don’t have any figure like that. Politicians must relate to citizens with higher humility rather than the current arrogance,” he added.


APC pushes back

In response to growing defection speculations, APC’s Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, insisted that Buhari’s loyalists remained ideologically aligned with the ruling party.

“No, they will not support ADC, it’s not possible. They are people of different ideologies. They are more comfortable with and in APC,” he said.

Ibrahim admitted that Buhari’s passing created a vacuum but believe it would serve as an opportunity for party introspection.

“Yes, political atmosphere will change for our party. But it is not a vacuum that will deform the party. It is a vacuum that will push the party into sobriety… The party is doing something to reconcile, reassess the situation, and see to it that there is a very good sense of mending,” he added.


Shittu dismisses claim

Former Minister of Communications, Adebayo Shittu, another CPC veteran, dismissed rumours linking him with a move to the ADC.

“No way, I am not leaving the APC. In fact, I am even planning to run for Oyo governorship seat on the platform of the party in 2027. And I have no doubt I will defeat any opponent to clinch it if I am given the APC ticket,” he declared.

On the wider implications of Buhari’s death, Shittu said, “No, the exit of Buhari can’t break up or divide the APC. Although you can’t rule out the fact that some elements of CPC may go… there are more people moving into the APC.”


Arewa leaders react

Opinions among northern leaders remain divided, however.

Former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, Anthony Sani, said there was little to worry about.

“I do not think there will be any substantial change in direction by the APC after the death of former President Buhari. He said he would remain in the APC, which had made him President twice,” Sani said. “Given the attitude of his supporters, I do not see how they will betray Buhari, even in his grave.”

He also cast doubts on the viability of the coalition, citing lack of policy differentiation and unfavourable zoning dynamics.

“The politics of zoning does not favour the coalition. President Tinubu is about the only one who has only one term to go, and northerners cannot trust Peter Obi, they cannot support Atiku Abubakar to dismantle the zoning,” he added.

In contrast, Yerima Shettima, President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum, warned that Buhari’s death could create a power vacuum within the APC.

“Buhari’s leadership was characterised by a blend of loyalty and divisiveness. His death could trigger a power vacuum. The APC would face a critical juncture in its trajectory,” Shettima said.

He emphasised that managing Buhari’s legacy would determine whether the party rallies or unravels.

“If the party fails to address the grievances of the populace, it risks losing credibility and support,” he warned.

Shettima suggested that the CPC bloc could either assert itself as the guardian of Buhari’s ideals or evolve into a distinct political identity, depending on how it reacts to changing party dynamics

jmoore:
People are just making speculations up and down.

Nackzy:
Wahala for oga tinubu and his supporters, how them go do if atiku mistakenly take Peter Obi as vice it is finish