₦airaland Forum

Top of the hour to you wherever you are reading this, just as the topic suggests this will be about the politics of 2027 and where each aspirant seems to draw their strength.

If you read this with an open mind devoid of emotions but pure logical calculations then you will enjoy it.


First and foremost, as we all can see the major reason for the coalition is to unseat Tinubu which that have never hidden since day 1 of the coalition.

Is this possible?

Follow me as I explain.

I will analyze the coalition candidate one after the other

Atiku Abubakar
If you want to be realistic with the coalition, you will realize it's Atiku brainchild and we all know this is virtually his last chance at giving presidency a shot because by 2027 he will already be 81 years by then and the reality is that if he fails now he can't come back because majority of his stalwarts are tired of his ambition.

His major strength is that if he's given the ticket of the coalition, he has the resources and nationwide spread to make things happen because he's been in the game for long and he has the financial war chest.

If not for Tinubu and Amaechi intervention in 2014 APC primary, Atiku will defeat Buhari in that primary.

His major weakness is that majority of the people will rather not vote than vote a Fulani again after Buhari just left coupled with his age.


Peter Obi
According to statistics on ground, he has his region on lockdown any day anytime and it's understandable because they felt they have been marginalized for a long time which many of them felt Tinubu took their turn in 2023.

They are ready to put everything on the line to get it, another major strength of obi is his social media presence and how he's heavily supported by social media influencers who felt sympathetic to his course.

He also pride himself as the candidate of the youth which could be cool but I don't think everyone agrees to that because of his age.

His major weakness is that he doesn't have the national appeal and he's seen more as a sectional and tribalistic leader because of some of his statements and antecedents coupled with the fact that majority of his supporters are extremists in their believe and they don't give room for the saying *live an let live*.......it's either their way or highway.


Now let's move to the strength and weaknesses of the coalition.

With combined resources of both Atiku and obi, they will definitely pull a great stunt and give Tinubu a run for his money and they will cover each others lapses in places they lag behind.

The major weakness I see to this is that Atiku will surely get the ticket which I am ready to bet anyday anytime, there have been opinions from obi camp that he should deputize Atiku.

Now let's analyze the possibility of both ticket either ways.

Peter obi / any northern........there are statements from obi himself talking about using a single term which we all know that's impossible because everyone becomes an Oliver twist with power and constitutionally nobody can stop a sitting president from vyeing for second term so the idea of obi using one term is impossible.

Coupled with the fact that his people are Nigerians like me and you so why stop them when they have the power when Buhari finished his 2 terms without disturbance.

On this 2 notes, obi will finish his 2 terms in peace.

The question is that will the power hungry north wait for 12 years out of power?

Do u think they are fighting Tinubu because they love Nigeria?

If they can wait for Buhari 8 years, tell me what Tinubu has done within 2 years to cause all these trouble?

Is it the love of Nigeria or power?

If el rufai was made minister will he be in the coalition today?

As for Atiku, I need not say much about that. If he emerges flagbearer the Fulani game will surely work against his ticket and even major northern bigwigs that can't wait to be president in 2031 will work against him because once Atiku becomes president their ambition is gone.

As regards regional politics and dynamics of last election,many things have changed.

South south have number 3 citizen now and once Tinubu wins in 2027, automatically a northerner will become president and a south south person will become VP so they stand to gain staying with Tinubu than the coalition.

The only Christian vote won't work again for obi in 2027 because Tinubu have shown the Muslim Muslim ticket is just mere political strategy and not for Islamisation

The " I am different"... Selling point of obi is gone so it's obvious all Politicians are the same now.

As regards the northern votes, Atiku have never been seen as the Messiah before in the north like Buhari that Is referred to as mai gaskiya ( the one who stands for truth and holiness), so he can't inherit any 12 million votes and Tinubu even beat him in the last election in the north despite Buhari neutrality.

On this note, I give it to you to decide how you thinks things can pan out in the next election.

Your views will b highly appreciated..... Thanks


Cc
Helinues
Jmoore
Gidgiddy
Curious345
Madridguy
LegendHero

While I agree with some of your assertions, I hold a slightly different perspective. In my view, the only ticket that stands a real chance of unseating Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu or at the very least, giving him a serious run for his money is a Peter Obi/El-Rufai presidential ticket, with Atiku Abubakar backing them as a political godfather.

Here’s the breakdown:
• Peter Obi brings massive influence and loyalty from the South East and parts of the South-South. His support base, especially among the youth and urban voters, remains strong.
• El-Rufai has deep reach within the northern elite and youth demographics. Despite controversies, he’s still respected among core Northern political and religious establishments.
• Atiku Abubakar, though aging politically, still commands loyalty at the grassroots level in the North, particularly in Adamawa, parts of the North East, and North Central. His endorsement would consolidate traditional northern voting blocs.

This combination would split Tinubu’s chances significantly:
• He would struggle in the North, which he relied on heavily in 2023.
• He would lose the South East outright, given Obi’s dominance.
• In the South West, while Tinubu might still win, the influence of both Obi and Atiku would eat into his margin, particularly in Lagos, Ondo, and parts of Ekiti and Osun.

Now, here’s the joker card:

If Kwankwaso were to join APC as Tinubu’s running mate, that changes everything.
Kwankwaso holds Kano firmly and has influence across Northern Nigeria, especially among talakawa (common people). With him as VP, APC would secure a massive chunk of the North both elite and grassroots votes. That alliance would likely render any opposition ticket powerless, especially if the opposition is fragmented or lacks nationwide grassroots coordination.

Conclusion:

Obi/El-Rufai backed by Atiku is the only possible anti-Tinubu coalition with the national appeal, demographic balance, and political clout to challenge the current status quo. But if Kwankwaso crosses over to Tinubu’s side, it might just be game over.

Just to correct a notion. PO doesn't have SE on lockdown as you claim. Bring out a competent candidate from any region and you will understand what I mean. People like Yemi Osinbajo, Akinwunmi Adesina, Donald Duke and numerous others will give PO a run for his money even in his Anambra state.

Nonexisting1:
Just to correct a notion. PO doesn't have SE on lockdown as you claim. Bring out a competent candidate from any region and you will understand what I mean. People like Yemi Osinbajo, Akinwunmi Adesina, Donald Duke and numerous others will give PO a run for his money even in his Anambra state.

same yemi osinbajo u people call fake pastor n mere commissioner

U people only wanted him cos he was a weak candidate m very easy to defeat for u.

It's just like psg picking team for Chelsea

harqinhola:
While I agree with some of your assertions, I hold a slightly different perspective. In my view, the only ticket that stands a real chance of unseating Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu or at the very least, giving him a serious run for his money is a Peter Obi/El-Rufai presidential ticket, with Atiku Abubakar backing them as a political godfather.

Here’s the breakdown:
• Peter Obi brings massive influence and loyalty from the South East and parts of the South-South. His support base, especially among the youth and urban voters, remains strong.
• El-Rufai has deep reach within the northern elite and youth demographics. Despite controversies, he’s still respected among core Northern political and religious establishments.
• Atiku Abubakar, though aging politically, still commands loyalty at the grassroots level in the North, particularly in Adamawa, parts of the North East, and North Central. His endorsement would consolidate traditional northern voting blocs.

This combination would split Tinubu’s chances significantly:
• He would struggle in the North, which he relied on heavily in 2023.
• He would lose the South East outright, given Obi’s dominance.
• In the South West, while Tinubu might still win, the influence of both Obi and Atiku would eat into his margin, particularly in Lagos, Ondo, and parts of Ekiti and Osun.

Now, here’s the joker card:

If Kwankwaso were to join APC as Tinubu’s running mate, that changes everything.
Kwankwaso holds Kano firmly and has influence across Northern Nigeria, especially among talakawa (common people). With him as VP, APC would secure a massive chunk of the North both elite and grassroots votes. That alliance would likely render any opposition ticket powerless, especially if the opposition is fragmented or lacks nationwide grassroots coordination.

Conclusion:

Obi/El-Rufai backed by Atiku is the only possible anti-Tinubu coalition with the national appeal, demographic balance, and political clout to challenge the current status quo. But if Kwankwaso crosses over to Tinubu’s side, it might just be game over.

how many terms will obi use as president?

Factcheck0001:
same yemi osinbajo u people call fake pastor n mere commissioner

U people only wanted him cos he was a weak candidate m very easy to defeat for u.

It's just like psg picking team for Chelsea

We all know which people circulated Osinbajo's pictures as an ice cream seller during 2023 election.

Factcheck0001:
same yemi osinbajo u people call fake pastor n mere commissioner

U people only wanted him cos he was a weak candidate m very easy to defeat for u.

It's just like psg picking team for Chelsea

ok so you prefer the CEO of bullion vans company.well the north thought they are the only side with backward leadership with buhari until the west lunches tinubu.am in support of Agbero chairman till 5080

Nonexisting1:
Just to correct a notion. PO doesn't have SE on lockdown as you claim. Bring out a competent candidate from any region and you will understand what I mean. People like Yemi Osinbajo, Akinwunmi Adesina, Donald Duke and numerous others will give PO a run for his money even in his Anambra state.

A core Tinubu supporter wrote this to gaslight you and get you to be on the defensive. He wants to paint the SE as tribalistic in their 2023 voting, don’t fall for it. The same SE voted OBJ, Yar’adua, GEJ and Atiku, but they will continue to try to gaslight you to even you up with themselves. Tinubu supporters always accuse people of what they’re doing so they can shift attention from themselves.

Their goal is to label everyone as being tribalistic and incompetent so that people can say “if they’re all the same, let the incumbent continue”. These people are very terrified of Peter Obi’s rising profile. They have realized that Tinubu has no path to 2027 so they have become emergency neutral Nigerians or emergency Atiku or even Obi supporters

givedemwotowoto:
A core Tinubu supporter wrote this to gaslight you and get you to be on the defensive. He wants to paint the SE as tribalistic in their 2023 voting, don’t fall for it. The same SE voted OBJ, Yar’adua, GEJ and Atiku, but they will continue to try to gaslight you to even you up with themselves. Tinubu supporters always accuse people of what they’re doing so they can shift attention from themselves.

Their goal is to label everyone as being tribalistic so that people can say “if they’re all the same, let the incumbent continue”. These people are very terrified of Peter Obi’s rising profile. They have realized that Tinubu has no path to 2027 so they have become emergency neutral Nigerians or emergency Atiku or even Obi supporters

of all the people u mentioned that ibos supported

Just mentioned one that is not a PDP candidate?

Ibos only voted PDP n not anyone else


Obj PDP
Yaradua PDP
Gej PDP
Atiku PDP

Oya name one presidential candidate aside PDP that ibos supported since 1999?

Factcheck0001:
of all the people u mentioned that ibos supported

Just mentioned one that is not a PDP candidate?

Ibos only voted PDP n not anyone else

If it was about tribalism, Igbos would’ve voted for Ojukwu and not Obasanjo.

If it was about tribalism, Igbos would’ve voted for Buhari twice because of his Igbo running mates and not OBJ and Yar’Adua.

If it was about PDP, Igbos would’ve voted for Atiku Abubakar in 2023 and not Peter Obi.

Factcheck0001:
of all the people u mentioned that ibos supported

Just mentioned one that is not a PDP candidate?

Ibos only voted PDP n not anyone else

Obj PDP
Yaradua PDP
Gej PDP
Atiku PDP

Oya name one presidential candidate aside PDP that ibos supported since 1999?

So you’re just going to jump past that the fact that these Presidents that Igbos overwhelmingly supported turned out to be the best Presidents Nigeria produced?

And when you people finally elected Buhari, he turned out to fail as President?

givedemwotowoto:
If it was about tribalism, Igbos would’ve voted for Ojukwu and not Obasanjo.

If it was about tribalism, Igbos would’ve voted for Buhari twice because of his Igbo running mates and not OBJ and Yar’Adua.

If it was about PDP, Igbos would’ve voted for Atiku Abubakar in 2023 and not Peter Obi.

oga leave story

Mention just one candidate outside of PDP that Ibos voted since 99?

I said u voted PDP n not tribe n u are writing story, oya tell me any candidate outside PDP that ibos voted from 99?

Factcheck0001:
oga leave story

Mention just one candidate outside of PDP that Ibos voted since 99?

I said u voted PDP n not tribe n u are writing story, oya tell me any candidate outside PDP that ibos voted from 99?

I say mention which of the Presidents that Igbos voted for that Buhari was better than. Oya

givedemwotowoto:
So you’re just going to jump past that the fact that these Presidents that Igbos overwhelmingly supported turned out to be the best Presidents Nigeria produced?

And when you people finally elected Buhari, he turned out to fail as President?

wait first

We ain't talking about performance yet but alliance.


Name just 1 president out of PDP that ibos voted since 99?

givedemwotowoto:
I say mention which of the Presidents that Igbos voted for that Buhari was better than. Oya

oga leave performance first

U were defeated in your argument but u want to deflect,no b me.

We will talk about performance,now we are talking about alliance.


Name just one candidate out of PDP that ibos voted since 99?

Factcheck0001:
wait first

We ain't talking about performance yet but alliance.

Name just 1 president out of PDP that ibos voted since 99?

PDP presented the best candidates and Igbos voted for them, even when Igbos were running in other parties.

Can you prove otherwise?

Factcheck0001:
oga leave performance first

U were defeated in your argument but u want to deflect,no b me.

We will talk about performance,now we are talking about alliance.


Name just one candidate out of PDP that ibos voted since 99?

People reading your comments will be struggling to understand what point you’re trying to make here.

So Igbos should leave OBJ, Yar’adua and GEJ, the better candidates presented by the PDP, and voted for Buhari? For what purpose, to please who?

So Igbos should leave Peter Obi, the best candidate presented in the 2023 election, and voted Tinubu, for what purpose? To please who?

Make this your argument make sense na

Obi (Presidential Candidate) +Any candidate will give BAT an easy win.
Any northerner (PC) + Obi will attempt to stress BAT but its a gamble that the core Nothern establishment will not take as the opportunity cost is huge.
Leading candidates going solo will give BAT an easy win.
Whichever way, coalition is screwed.
Coalition People will choose BTW retirement and supporting BAT.
Kperogi's write-up comes to mind.

givedemwotowoto:
People reading your comments will be struggling to understand what point you’re trying to make here.

So Igbos should leave OBJ, Yar’adua and GEJ, the better candidates presented by the PDP, and voted for Buhari? For what purpose, to please who?

So Igbos should leave Peter Obi, the best candidate presented in the 2023 election, and voted Tinubu, for what purpose? To please who?

Make this your argument make sense na

oga calm down.

U know what u are doing but I am wiser than u, we are talking about who ibos voted n when u realize u have been defeated in your arguement u want to deflect it.

It's two things on ground, let's finish one before we move to the other one


Alliance
Competence


U haven't agreed ibos voted PDP only but u quickly want to switch to competence, let's finish one before we move to the other....don't run from arguement or deflect cos u have been defeated.


U started with alliance that ibos voted every body, I told u Ibos only voted PDP n not any tribe.

Yes or no?

Buccalcavity2:
Obi (Presidential Candidate) +Any candidate will give BAT an easy win.
Any northerner (PC) + Obi will attempt to stress BAT but its a gamble that the core Nothern establishment will not take as the opportunity cost is huge.
Leading candidates going solo will give BAT an easy win.
Whichever way, coalition is screwed.
Coalition People will choose BTW retirement and supporting BAT.
Kperogi's write-up comes to mind.

Either way they go be it fronting atiku or obi, they will lose.

I never see how they wan win

Factcheck0001:
oga calm down.

U know what u are doing but I am wiser than u, we are talking about who ibos voted n when u realize u have been defeated in your arguement u want to deflect it.

It's two things on ground, let's finish one before we move to the other one


Alliance
Competence


U haven't agreed ibos voted PDP only but u quickly want to switch to competence, let's finish one before we move to the other....don't run from arguement or deflect cos u have been defeated.


U started with alliance that ibos voted every body, I told u Ibos only voted PDP n not any tribe.

Yes or no?

You’re the one defeating and also deluding yourself at the same time because you have zero proof for your own allegations.

The original argument here was that the SE voted Peter Obi due to tribalism. When asked to prove it, even after showing you proof that it was not tribalism, after destroying that silly argument, you quickly shifted gear to “alliance” because you can’t prove tribalism. Very typical of Tinubu supporters.

We still go to alliance, Oya prove that the SE was only voting based on alliance. One way to prove it is to show that a better opposition candidate was presented since 1999 to 2023 but the SE still voted their alliance. You still can’t prove anything, because when eventually you convinced Nigerians about Buhari, his government turned out to fail. In fact, in 2023, if the SE had voted for Atiku instead of Obi, then you would’ve had proof of alliance, but that argument doesn’t exist.

The only thing I see here is you projecting yourself on others. For example, when someone is filled with tribal hate and envy, they start projecting that on others without proof, or when someone is trying to dominate other minorities, they start accusing Igbos of what they’re actively doing, even when those minorities live and thrive well with Igbos, or when someone is voting along tribal lines (e.g Tinubu supporters), they start projecting that on Igbos without proof.