₦airaland Forum

In 2013, a true merger occurred, driven by political heavyweights who controlled their respective parties and had a history of winning elections, including defeating incumbent governors. This group included serving and former National Assembly members involved in the merger process. Most importantly, they had a skilled political strategist from Lagos State, who consistently kept the powerful ruling PDP at bay in Lagos and orchestrated their defeat in other southwest states during the previous election. This group became the envy of many, including elected governors of the then-ruling party, some of whom joined their camp. That was the APC.

In 2025, there is now another group that calls itself a coalition. Its leaders are a collection of candidates with a history of electoral losses in their constituencies. They control no political structures, as most were effectively forced out of their parties. They lack influence among governors, and their ranks include individuals frustrated by their inability to secure appointments in the current administration. More importantly, they lack strategists and do not trust each other. This 'coalition' believes it can replicate the APC’s historic 2015 feat.

My prediction remains unchanged. The so-called coalition will not come close to winning in 2027 presidential and other elections.

'Tonye Barcanista

This paid sold out, washed out political cashtivist go n rest,

How much did the strange bed fellows of ,2015 trust themselves.

You are sold out, lost and confused political wannabe.

If God does will otherwise, Tinubu is Gone for 2027

I will believe everything written here if it were to be God Himself that wrote it because power belongs only to Him.

Again, AA and PO none heavyweights?Combine their 2023 votes to that of Tinubu (with Buhari's support then), you will then what awaits APC in 2027, more especially now that Buhari is no more. So this your prediction is dead on arrival.

TonyeBarcanista:
In 2013, a true merger occurred, driven by political heavyweights who controlled their respective parties and had a history of winning elections, including defeating incumbent governors. This group included serving and former National Assembly members involved in the merger process. Most importantly, they had a skilled political strategist from Lagos State, who consistently kept the powerful ruling PDP at bay in Lagos and orchestrated their defeat in other southwest states during the previous election. This group became the envy of many, including elected governors of the then-ruling party, some of whom joined their camp. That was the APC.

In 2025, there is now another group that calls itself a coalition. Its leaders are a collection of candidates with a history of electoral losses in their constituencies. They control no political structures, as most were effectively forced out of their parties. They lack influence among governors, and their ranks include individuals frustrated by their inability to secure appointments in the current administration. More importantly, they lack strategists and do not trust each other. This 'coalition' believes it can replicate the APC’s historic 2015 feat.

My prediction remains unchanged. The so-called coalition will not come close to winning in 2027 presidential and other elections.

'Tonye Barcanista

Sometimes when we write we should interrogate the times, trend and data. So Atiku is a failed politician without structure, strategy and base? So PO is lacking in strategy, structure and base? Understand that 2023 election performance of the LP candidate is what is encouraging ADC not the merger of 2014.
LP's surprise performance shows the people can do it. LP had no deep pocket but the people, LP had no structure but the people, LP had elected officials but the people. The people is what ADC is hoping on not the name of the party. AA and PO can't go it separately and if they stay together it's goodnight for APC and PDP

Except anyone is being disingenuous or lying to themselves, they can see that the momentum is currently with the coalition. APC failed to get any momentum despite the flurry of defections to the party and this has since reduced since the announcement of the coalition. This shows that the people are hungry for change, no matter the nomenclature or platform. Even Kwankwaso is now dragging his feet because he can see the handwriting on the wall. Write-off the coalition at your own peril.

So in short, Pdp might likely collapse their party structure for president Tinubu's reelection.

LP can as well tow that lane. They both have nothing to loose

SadiqBabaSani:
This paid sold out, washed out political cashtivist go n rest,

How much did the strange bed fellows of ,2015 trust themselves.

You are sold out, lost and confused political wannabe.

If God does will otherwise, Tinubu is Gone for 2027

Respond to the message and stop attacking personality.

If those who are the coalition left their previous party as they were not in charge, how can such people be trusted with complicated Nigeria.

In 2013 President Tinubu merged ADC with CPC Buhari to form Apc. The people in the coalition are political refugees

Perhaps, you fail to realise that 2023 momentum actually did not favor BAT.

There were controversies about his heritage, single religion ticket, fuel and naira scarcity, anger against APC/Buhari down south and obviously lack of support from then President Buhari and his men.

The LP candidate had support of some PDP Governors (Enugu, Benue, Abia, Edo) as well as PDP structures in selected states (Cross river, Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau and FCT). The LP candidate also enjoyed support of the "Church" in addition.

The PDP candidate had support of a couple of PDP Governors and Buhari's men.

In 2027, at least 35 Governors are for Asiwaju, while the remaining one is yet to be ascertained. In addition to this, he enjoys incumbency advantage and his structure is even stronger. Nobody cares about single faith ticket, while the "Church" is tactically supporting him.

Atiku and Obi were kicked out of their former parties. The Governors who openly and stylishly supported them in 2023, now support the incumbent. Even their former allies are pledging for the incumbent. I see no momentum for ADC irrespective of who the field or pair. The defeat will be clearer than sunlight.

slivertongue:
Sometimes when we write we should interrogate the times, trend and data. So Atiku is a failed politician without structure, strategy and base? So PO is lacking in strategy, structure and base? Understand that 2023 election performance of the LP candidate is what is encouraging ADC not the merger of 2014.
LP's surprise performance shows the people can do it. LP had no deep pocket but the people, LP had no structure but the people, LP had elected officials but the people. The people is what ADC is hoping on not the name of the party. AA and PO can't go it separately and if they stay together it's goodnight for APC and PDP

helinues:
Respond to the message and stop attacking personality.

If those who are the coalition left their previous party as they were not in charge, how can such people be trusted with complicated Nigeria.

In 2013 President Tinubu merged ADC with CPC Buhari to form Apc. The people in the coalition are political refugees

Imagine Atiku defecting to ADC without his own Ward Executives following him. 2027 will clear many doubts

TonyeBarcanista:
Imagine Atiku defecting to ADC without his own Ward Executives following him. 2027 will clear many doubts

No way Atiku would have gotten the Pdp ticket in 2027, as he Atiku is just too ambitious, he didn't think leaving Pdp through

ADC only have 2 house of reps members who are from Bauchi state. Atiku without being in charge of Pdp structure, where would he start from in ADC?

helinues:
No way Atiku would have gotten the Pdp ticket in 2027, as he Atiku is just too ambitious, he didn't think leaving Pdp through

His problem is obsession with the seat of the President and a desperation to be president. He lacks tactics and Strategy. He depends on money and marabout.

TonyeBarcanista:
His problem is obsession with the seat of the President and a desperation to be president. He lacks tactics and Strategy. He depends on money and marabout.

Northerners who are nursing 2031 presidential ambition would rather support president Tinubu's reelection than allowing Atiku to scatter their plans for them. Even the potential political godfathers can't wait

Don't also forget former Yoruba Obidients in your calculations.

Obi did well in Southwest especially Lagos in 2023 because of these set of people. He has lost majority of them because of the insults they receive daily from his followers.

In 2027, he and Atiku would be lucky to have 500k combined in the entire southwest. If Obi runs alone now, he wouldn't go past 3M votes.

Also, Atiku 2027 favours only him in the North. Which Northern Politician that knows his onions would forfeit his own aspirations for his candidacy?

TonyeBarcanista:
Perhaps, you fail to realise that 2023 momentum actually did not favor BAT.

There were controversies about his heritage, single religion ticket, fuel and naira scarcity, anger against APC/Buhari down south and obviously lack of support from then President Buhari and his men.

The LP candidate had support of some PDP Governors (Enugu, Benue, Abia, Edo) as well as PDP structures in selected states (Cross river, Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau and FCT). The LP candidate also enjoyed support of the "Church" in addition.

The PDP candidate had support of a couple of PDP Governors and Buhari's men.

In 2027, at least 35 Governors are for Asiwaju, while the remaining one is yet to be ascertained. In addition to this, he enjoys incumbency advantage and his structure is even stronger. Nobody cares about single faith ticket, while the "Church" is tactically supporting him.

Atiku and Obi were kicked out of their former parties. The Governors who openly and stylishly supported them in 2023, now support the incumbent. Even their former allies are pledging for the incumbent. I see no momentum for ADC irrespective of who the field or pair. The defeat will be clearer than sunlight.

Atiku left PDP not kicked out Obi still in LP I guess for local elections and after that he bow out, not kicked out. I love your assumptions but near wrong on most calls. For example in Plateau State the people not APC structures sold Obi, ordinary but very influential people took obi's campaigns to the people. The Obi wave actually started on the Plateau but a handiwork of some Northerners. So when you write do write with proper information. Tinubu isn't as confident as you. Notice I didn't bother to name, names because some of the write-ups are for agenda setting and information gathering. Why don't you write to market PDP and leave ADC alone. Me sef do PDP from 1998 - 1999 for Alabo Graham Douglas so I ain't happy with the fate of pdp but siasa ba adini ba!

Tjra:
Don't also forget former Yoruba Obidients in your calculations.

Obi did well in Southwest especially Lagos in 2023 because of these set of people. He has lost majority of them because of the insults they receive daily from his followers.

In 2027, he and Atiku would be lucky to have 500k combined in the entire southwest. If Obi runs alone now, he wouldn't go past 3M votes.

Also, Atiku 2027 favours only him in the North. Which Northern Politician that knows his onions would forfeit his own aspirations for his candidacy?

Majority of Nigerians did not know why Peter Obi won in Lagos state in 2023 election.

You see, in every state there is a measure to check and balance the number of non indigenes during voters registration. SanwoOlu neglected that hence being blamed, but it wasn't deliberate

TonyeBarcanista:
In 2013, a true merger occurred, driven by political heavyweights who controlled their respective parties and had a history of winning elections, including defeating incumbent governors. This group included serving and former National Assembly members involved in the merger process. Most importantly, they had a skilled political strategist from Lagos State, who consistently kept the powerful ruling PDP at bay in Lagos and orchestrated their defeat in other southwest states during the previous election. This group became the envy of many, including elected governors of the then-ruling party, some of whom joined their camp. That was the APC.

In 2025, there is now another group that calls itself a coalition. Its leaders are a collection of candidates with a history of electoral losses in their constituencies. They control no political structures, as most were effectively forced out of their parties. They lack influence among governors, and their ranks include individuals frustrated by their inability to secure appointments in the current administration. More importantly, they lack strategists and do not trust each other. This 'coalition' believes it can replicate the APC’s historic 2015 feat.

My prediction remains unchanged. The so-called coalition will not come close to winning in 2027 presidential and other elections.

'Tonye Barcanista

Atiku has left PDP to wike
Ihedioha has left PDP of Sam Daddy

So what exactly is your issue... Should u not be focusing on how to present a good southern candidate that can win Tinubu?

Why are you attacking fellow opposition?

helinues:
Northerners who are nursing 2031 presidential ambition would rather support president Tinubu's reelection than allowing Atiku to scatter their plans for them. Even the potential political godfathers can't wait

No northern politician can shout APC in the rural North without police protection. The North will have to choose between AA and Tinubu..We ain't gonna wait till 2031

slivertongue:
No northern politician can shout APC in the rural North without police protection. The North will have to choose between AA and Tinubu..We ain't gonna wait till 2031

That's your opinion which I can't do anything about

TonyeBarcanista:
In 2013, a true merger occurred, driven by political heavyweights who controlled their respective parties and had a history of winning elections, including defeating incumbent governors. This group included serving and former National Assembly members involved in the merger process. Most importantly, they had a skilled political strategist from Lagos State, who consistently kept the powerful ruling PDP at bay in Lagos and orchestrated their defeat in other southwest states during the previous election. This group became the envy of many, including elected governors of the then-ruling party, some of whom joined their camp. That was the APC.

In 2025, there is now another group that calls itself a coalition. Its leaders are a collection of candidates with a history of electoral losses in their constituencies. They control no political structures, as most were effectively forced out of their parties. They lack influence among governors, and their ranks include individuals frustrated by their inability to secure appointments in the current administration. More importantly, they lack strategists and do not trust each other. This 'coalition' believes it can replicate the APC’s historic 2015 feat.

My prediction remains unchanged. The so-called coalition will not come close to winning in 2027 presidential and other elections.

'Tonye Barcanista

Post without conclusion. Who go win? Tinubu of APC or Wike of PDP?

helinues:
Majority of Nigerians did not know why Peter Obi won in Lagos state in 2023 election.

You see, in every state there is a measure to check and balance the number of non indigenes during voters registration. SanwoOlu neglected that hence being blamed, but it wasn't deliberate

How did PO win Rivers State? How did PO KO Tinubu in FCT? You don't know the dynamics and PO is silent of his strategy and connects thus the conjectures. Why don't you folks focus on Tinubu and sell him

You have done your job, but you forgot to mention at the end “Post Sponsored by Wike”

Unless they choose Peter Obi as the concensus presidential candidate

TonyeBarcanista:
In 2013, a true merger occurred, driven by political heavyweights who controlled their respective parties and had a history of winning elections, including defeating incumbent governors. This group included serving and former National Assembly members involved in the merger process. Most importantly, they had a skilled political strategist from Lagos State, who consistently kept the powerful ruling PDP at bay in Lagos and orchestrated their defeat in other southwest states during the previous election. This group became the envy of many, including elected governors of the then-ruling party, some of whom joined their camp. That was the APC.

In 2025, there is now another group that calls itself a coalition. Its leaders are a collection of candidates with a history of electoral losses in their constituencies. They control no political structures, as most were effectively forced out of their parties. They lack influence among governors, and their ranks include individuals frustrated by their inability to secure appointments in the current administration. More importantly, they lack strategists and do not trust each other. This 'coalition' believes it can replicate the APC’s historic 2015 feat.

My prediction remains unchanged. The so-called coalition will not come close to winning in 2027 presidential and other elections.

'Tonye Barcanista