₦airaland Forum

Nigeria would require a minimum annual growth rate of 21.9 percent at an exchange rate of N1,500/$ or stronger exchange rate at a slower growth rate to attain $1 trillion economy valuation by 2031, Afrinvest West Africa Limited has predicted.

Afrinvest projected this in in its 20th Nigeria Banking Sector Report 2025 entitled, ‘ACT-BOLD: Beyond a Trillion Dollar Economy’.

According to the report, “Based on the outcome of the rebased GDP, which put Nigeria’s nominal size in 2024 at N372.8 trillion (equivalent to $251.0 billion using average FX rate of N1,484.99/$) versus N277.5trillion under the old base year (implying a 34.4 percent jump), Nigeria would require a minimum annual growth rate of 21.9% at an exchange rate of N1,500/$ or a much stronger exchange rate at a slower growth rate to attain N1trillion economy valuation by 2031.

“To close these gaps and reposition Nigeria for a leap forward (notably, the $1tn economy size target), we propose that the administration adopt the philosophical mantra of “ACT-BOLD” – a framework for reengineering Nigeria’s economic fortunes through decisive, transparent, and reform-driven governance.”

The report indicated that despite the President Bola Tinubu administration’s confidence that the banking industry will support the $1tn economy target realisation, there was a need to address longstanding impediments that constrain broad-based growth potential.

The report unveiling which also marked Afrinvest’s 30 years of operations, attracted financial sector stakeholders and market leaders.

Speaking during the unveiling, Group Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa Limited, Dr Ike Chioke, described the company’s 30 years of operations as a journey of resilience, innovation, and leadership meant to shape Nigeria’s financial markets. He said the Banking Sector Report, first published in 2006, remained a trusted compass for policymakers, investors and financial institutions navigating the changes in Nigeria’s economy.

“Based on the outcome of the rebased GDP, which put Nigeria’s nominal size in 2024 at N372.8 trillion (equivalent to $251.0 billion using average FX rate of N1,484.99/$) versus N277.5trillion under the old base year (implying a 34.4 percent jump).

Nigeria would require a minimum annual growth rate of 21.9% at an exchange rate of N1,500/$ or a much stronger exchange rate at a slower growth rate to attain N1trillion economy valuation by 2031.

Racoon:
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/09/1trn-economy-nigeria-requires-21-9-annual-growth-n1-500-afrinvest/

The four factors that make up a nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the expenditure approach are Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government Spending (G), and Net Exports (X - M). These components represent the total value of goods and services purchased in an economy: personal spending by consumers, business investment in capital, government outlays, and the value of exports minus imports.

Racoon:
Hehehe! Guess it is the Tinubu's itchy, nervy trademark economy of chronic borrowing / neck-constricting taxation, policy somersaults, trial & error with resultant massive unemployment/emasculation of SMEs and macro-economic industries, economic stagnation, uselessness of the currency and then unprecedented hardship for the populace?

sulaak:
You can grow Nigeria's GDP to the tune of $1 trillion. By rebasing the economy in 2030, based on the four major factors of a GDP, developing countries usually rebase their GDP every 5 years instead of depending on the annual growth rate.

1. Increase investment (private and public)
2. Increase government spending on infrastructure, education, healthcare and welfare payments to the poor.

bazoodo:
This is absolutely ridiculous. Saying growth can be attained by 1500 to a USD is absolute wickedness. Nigeria's strongest growth was when a dollar traded below 200 naira. Goodluck to anyone expecting anything from this adminstration

Kukutente23:
Ghana is doing 6.3% growth presently
Benin is at 7.5%
Togo is at 5.3%
Senegal is at 6%
Even Mali is doing 5% under military rule

And we are at 3%. Very sad

thisweekng:
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Chief Olawale Edun has said the last time Nigeria’s economy looked stable was about a decade ago.

He made this statement during his maiden press conference as Minister of Finance where he outlined President Bola Tinubu’s vision, agenda and strategy for the economy.

He said, “I think as we all know, we are not where we should be. The economy is barely growing above the rate of population growth.

“But it was not always so, and I think in trying to look at the way forward, if we now have a situation of slow growth, double-digit inflation, weak/depreciating exchange rate, as well as security concerns that are resulting in an economy that is not growing and not taking Nigerians out of poverty.

“If we think back to the last time when the economy was stable- when it was growing, when inflation was low, and the interest rate was affordable, that period was about a decade ago. Growth was about 6% in 2013 and 2014.”
Private sector to drive the economy

https://nairametrics.com/2023/09/01/the-last-time-nigerias-economy-was-stable-was-about-a-decade-ago-wale-edun/

bazoodo:
This is absolutely ridiculous. Saying growth can be attained by 1500 to a USD is absolute wickedness. Nigeria's strongest growth was when a dollar traded below 200 naira. Goodluck to anyone expecting anything from this adminstration

Kukutente23:
Ghana is doing 6.3% growth presently
Benin is at 7.5%
Togo is at 5.3%
Senegal is at 6%
Even Mali is doing 5% under military rule

And we are at 3%. Very sad

casualobserver:
Common sense would dictate to anyone that possesses such that a growing economy goes hand in hand with a reduction in the naira rate v $. Already we have seen the naira go from N1800 to N1500 as a result oif our highest GDP in some time. It goes without saying that to acheive a $1trillion economy the $ rate would have to fall against the Naira. It also goes without saying that a growing Nigerian economy will result in a stronger Naira and a lower dollar rate. so you have a double whammy effect. you increase the Naira value of the GDP by growing the economy in Naira terms and as a consequence of a growing economy, the dollar falls v Naira.

Lets say for example today GDP is N405Trillion and NGN/USD is 1500, in dollar terms our GDP is $270B. If the GDP rises by 5% next year, our GDP becomes N425T, assuming the exchnge rate stays at 1500, in dollars terms that is $283.5. However in reality a growth of 5% in GDP will also result in a fall in the NGN/USD rate...this is what uninformed people commenting on areas outside their competence and understanding ignore. lets say it falls to N1300/$, this will result in a GDP of $326B in 1 year from $270B....this is actually a 20% annual GDP growth in dollar terms, wheras in Naira it only grew by 5%.

if Nigeria can acheive 7% growth for 6 years, its GDP will be N607Trillion. That kind of growth will result in a fall in NGN/USD to N800/$. that is $758B GDP. so talks of a $1T economy very plausible in maybe 10yrs. The question is what is the government doing to boost growth to 7% and above? we give them the benefit of doubt and I believe them when they say the last 2 years was about stability. Indeed we were coming from a very bad place and now we are stable, now we need aggresive growth drivers.

anyone who says it is impossible does not understand economics or finance or the relationship between growth in the Nigerian economy and exchange rate and how our GDP in USD is a function of exchange rate. Also it must be said it is an unbecoming article from Afriinvest who are supposedly knowledgeable on this matters to suggest that the economy will grow and the exchange rate remains at n1500...like I said even at 3.8% it has risen from N1800 to N1500. Articles like these and commentary on the matter by Rufai the are either borne out of lack of understanding or agenda

6-7% growth is very achievable, we did it without any work or any infrastructure investments during the Jonathan era simply because Oil prices went to $80-100. The second component required is for the Naira to fall below N1000 to somewhere around N700-800 again very acheivable. Going from a N400T to a N700T economy and a N700/$ rate is very achievable in 10 yrs.

This is why i always preach that people should stop getting worked up about measuring the nigerian economy in dollars. As we can see just a 5% growth in naira GDP is equal to 20% growth in dollar GDP. it can be inflated on the upside as well as the downside based on the exchange rate. what is important is the GDP growth rate in naira terms. if we are able to get 5% and above preferably 7% we will be OK. the dollar will fall as a consequence.

Finally dollar GDP is a crude comparison tool, it is not real so stop paying too much attention to it,

Gotocourt:
Well said, as a layman. Is investing in manufacturing sector worth it?

Racoon:
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/09/1trn-economy-nigeria-requires-21-9-annual-growth-n1-500-afrinvest/