₦airaland Forum

The 2023 elections were a political awakening that exposed the fragility of Nigeria’s opposition and, more specifically, the Southeast’s negotiating power. The euphoric push for Peter Obi’s presidency, though emotionally charged, mistook passion for strategy. Power, in politics, is not dashed or gifted; it is taken through structured alliances and hard negotiations.

To understand where things went wrong, one must look back at 2015. Atiku Abubakar’s defection from the PDP was not a mistake but a strategic recalibration. The political pendulum had swung North after President Yar’Adua’s death, and the North was determined to reclaim power. Buhari became the vessel of that northern consensus, backed by a broad coalition that united strange bedfellows under the APC. That coalition made victory inevitable.

In 2023, however, ambition trumped strategy. Rather than building a united front, the opposition fragmented itself. The Labour Party’s rise under Peter Obi, though inspiring, became a parallel movement detached from the realities of coalition politics. The insistence that power must be “dashed” to a perceived messiah blinded many to the necessity of merger politics, the same tool that unseated PDP in 2015.

As 2027 approaches, the ruling APC is consolidating its grip, absorbing defectors and widening its political base. Meanwhile, opposition parties remain divided by ego, regional sentiment, and wishful thinking. If the Obidient movement truly seeks power, it must evolve from online fervor to realpolitik, building bridges, negotiating interests, and forming alliances.

Nigeria’s power game rewards strategy, not sentiment. Until opposition leaders bury pride and converge under one national coalition, history will repeat itself and 2027 will be a rerun of 2023.

shrinkchido:
The 2023 elections were a political awakening that exposed the fragility of Nigeria’s opposition and, more specifically, the Southeast’s negotiating power. The euphoric push for Peter Obi’s presidency, though emotionally charged, mistook passion for strategy. Power, in politics, is not dashed or gifted; it is taken through structured alliances and hard negotiations.

To understand where things went wrong, one must look back at 2015. Atiku Abubakar’s defection from the PDP was not a mistake but a strategic recalibration. The political pendulum had swung North after President Yar’Adua’s death, and the North was determined to reclaim power. Buhari became the vessel of that northern consensus, backed by a broad coalition that united strange bedfellows under the APC. That coalition made victory inevitable.

In 2023, however, ambition trumped strategy. Rather than building a united front, the opposition fragmented itself. The Labour Party’s rise under Peter Obi, though inspiring, became a parallel movement detached from the realities of coalition politics. The insistence that power must be “dashed” to a perceived messiah blinded many to the necessity of merger politics, the same tool that unseated PDP in 2015.

As 2027 approaches, the ruling APC is consolidating its grip, absorbing defectors and widening its political base. Meanwhile, opposition parties remain divided by ego, regional sentiment, and wishful thinking. If the Obidient movement truly seeks power, it must evolve from online fervor to realpolitik, building bridges, negotiating interests, and forming alliances.

Nigeria’s power game rewards strategy, not sentiment. Until opposition leaders bury pride and converge under one national coalition, history will repeat itself and 2027 will be a rerun of 2023.

Some of you talk like ...... Swear that if Obi didn't contest he would be in the question for any political calculations today?

Obi needed to prove a point that he and the people backing him matters and must be considered for any equation

The reason they are begging obi to take VICE now is because he contested

Like i said Tinubu is not very smart he just willing to do anything

Jonathan contesting would render everything he has done useless because Jonathan would sweep South South and South East and win him in the North

Atiku/Obi ticket would defeat Tinubu before 2pm

2023 proves on things if the people really want a candidate the governors and political office holders are over hyped

Obi has nothing to prove. Mbadinuju gave him the relevance and Atiku gave him the climax which no Igbo governor supported his choice as vice. Stoop to conquer is what ndi Igbo needs.

mrvitalis:
Some of you talk like ...... Swear that if Obi didn't contest he would be in the question for any political calculations today?

Obi needed to prove a point that he and the people backing him matters and must be considered for any equation

The reason they are begging obi to take VICE now is because he contested

Like i said Tinubu is not very smart he just willing to do anything

Jonathan contesting would render everything he has done useless because Jonathan would sweep South South and South East and win him in the North

Atiku/Obi ticket would defeat Tinubu before 2pm

2023 proves on things if the people really want a candidate the governors and political office holders are over hyped

Spotlight001:
Obi has nothing to prove. Mbadinuju gave him the relevance and Atiku gave him the climax which no Igbo governor supported his choice as vice. Stoop to conquer is what ndi Igbo needs.

You have been stooping since 1999 who gave you audience?

Instead of all South East politicians to rally round Obi to use him to negotiate for better standing for south East they are tearing him down

No body, no body would negotiate with you when they know you don't have the backing of your people

Tinubu himself knows obi control South East

I know Obi is smart let's await his game come 2027

Spotlight001:
Obi has nothing to prove. Mbadinuju gave him the relevance and Atiku gave him the climax which no Igbo governor supported his choice as vice. Stoop to conquer is what ndi Igbo needs.

You are obviously writing plenty senseless rubbish to promote this senseless thread you dropped.

Gather all Atiku s vote minus Pdapc rigging power, gather all Tpain's Acn etc presidential vote minus Pdapc rigging power it will not level up half of what Obi pulled with rubbish structureless powerless level less LP.

If you like make all your senseless propaganda in your Apc group,2023 has already shown what reality entails, which on average the common Nigerian stands with Obi. How can LP rig anything outside SE in the presence of big bogus Pdapc?? Yet Obi crushed them in Lag,Abj, Calabar all States with FCT titles where on a normal day you get to meet Nigerians from various Tribe,religion and set.

Come 2027 Obi or Atiku or anybody who picks the ADC ticket will be President. The COALITION stood firmly even into the ballots in 2015 against all odds,they will stand together again. Guess what,this time they have a bigger advantage bcus it's already 12m votes for ADC.

Emotional Mob. You will learn. Your village will learn.

Tochi360:
You are obviously writing plenty senseless rubbish to promote this senseless thread you dropped.

Gather all Atiku s vote minus Pdapc rigging power, gather all Tpain's Acn etc presidential vote minus Pdapc rigging power it will not level up half of what Obi pulled with rubbish structureless powerless level less LP.

If you like make all your senseless propaganda in your Apc group,2023 has already shown what reality entails, which on average the common Nigerian stands with Obi. How can LP rig anything outside SE in the presence of big bogus Pdapc?? Yet Obi crushed them in Lag,Abj, Calabar all States with FCT titles where on a normal day you get to meet Nigerians from various Tribe,religion and set.

Come 2027 Obi or Atiku or anybody who picks the ADC ticket will be President. The COALITION stood firmly even into the ballots in 2015 against all odds,they will stand together again. Guess what,this time they have a bigger advantage bcus it's already 12m votes for ADC.