₦airaland Forum

Penguin2:
This was how you lots overestimated him in 2023 until INEC had to shutdown IREV to conjure numbers for him.

It’s the politicians that are defecting. Ask yourself if the people are defecting with them.

Or the people no longer matter because you are confident INEC will write results for Tinubu?

franchasofficia:
1.) Peter Obi/El Rufai
2.) Goodluck Jonathan/Tambuwal
3.) Atiku/Obi


Any of the aforementioned tickets will defeat Tinubu.


But as someone with 3rd eye, Bola Tinubu is using high level voodooism to disorganize the opposition and lure many into defecting to APC. He might end up winning, sadly.


The aftermath?

The high level of voodooism Tinubu has been involved in to hold on to power will backfire on

Penguin2:
This was how you lots overestimated him in 2023 until INEC had to shutdown IREV to conjure numbers for him.

It’s the politicians that are defecting. Ask yourself if the people are defecting with them.

Or the people no longer matter because you are confident INEC will write results for Tinubu?

Penguin2:
I’m not going to write long tales. Yeah, I will just go straight to the point.

With the wave of defections going on, very soon all Southern Governors might be in APC.

And if we check very well, almost all Southern governors who are yet to join APC seem amenable to Tinubu’s re-election.

Name them, Gov Adeleke of Osun is not in APC today because of the pushback of APC stalwarts in Osun.

Gov Otti of Abia has never hidden his friendship with Tinubu.

Gov Diri is touted to have resigned from PDP en route APC.

Gov Fubara is only a governor on paper that even if he doesn’t defect cannot do much to harm Tinubu’s gameplan for Rivers.

Only Makinde seems to be on his own and that’s because he wants to answer Presidential candidate in 2027.

My point is, with what is currently happening in the south, the ADC or any opposition coalition giving their ticket to a northerner will just make 2027 Presidential Election an easy ride for Tinubu as it will become a north vs south affair. And with vast of the Middle Belt amenable to Southern sentiments, and with whatever Tinubu would be able to muscle from the rest of the North, he’s sure to win in 2027.

So, if the opposition is truly interested in challenging Tinubu in 2027, their ONLY option is to willingly hand the ticket to Peter Obi.

Why? Because with Obi, the south will be broken; with Obi taking Southeast and Southsouth again.

Again, the Middle Belt and northern Christians are still sold out to Obi.

Then you add whatever influence Atiku and his men can bring for Obi from the core North and you will see Tinubu struggling, if not beaten silly.

This is the only practical, logical and realistic option left for the opposition.

If you think they have a better option, convince us otherwise.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Penguin2:
I’m not going to write long tales. Yeah, I will just go straight to the point.

With the wave of defections going on, very soon all Southern Governors might be in APC.

And if we check very well, almost all Southern governors who are yet to join APC seem amenable to Tinubu’s re-election.

Name them, Gov Adeleke of Osun is not in APC today because of the pushback of APC stalwarts in Osun.

Gov Otti of Abia has never hidden his friendship with Tinubu.

Gov Diri is touted to have resigned from PDP en route APC.

Gov Fubara is only a governor on paper that even if he doesn’t defect cannot do much to harm Tinubu’s gameplan for Rivers.

Only Makinde seems to be on his own and that’s because he wants to answer Presidential candidate in 2027.

My point is, with what is currently happening in the south, the ADC or any opposition coalition giving their ticket to a northerner will just make 2027 Presidential Election an easy ride for Tinubu as it will become a north vs south affair. And with vast of the Middle Belt amenable to Southern sentiments, and with whatever Tinubu would be able to muscle from the rest of the North, he’s sure to win in 2027.

So, if the opposition is truly interested in challenging Tinubu in 2027, their ONLY option is to willingly hand the ticket to Peter Obi.

Why? Because with Obi, the south will be broken; with Obi taking Southeast and Southsouth again.

Again, the Middle Belt and northern Christians are still sold out to Obi.

Then you add whatever influence Atiku and his men can bring for Obi from the core North and you will see Tinubu struggling, if not beaten silly.

This is the only practical, logical and realistic option left for the opposition.

If you think they have a better option, convince us otherwise.

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Penguin2:
Give the ticket to Atiku and you will unite the south behind Tinubu.

Give it to Peter Obi and you will divide the south into two and take the larger share.

The Middle Belt is an easy home for Obi especially if you put agents on ground to prevent change of results.

Then Atiku, Tambuwal and co will deliver larger chunk of the core North, and the election is won.

Now, tell me the calculation you plan to make with Atiku.

franklytru:
I have never seen a people more deluded than the so called Obidients. If you guys real want to help Obi, ask him first the party he wants to be. Join the party enmass and influence the primaries from within.

Spending all your days on social media and hoping that Obi would be offered Presidential ticket on platter of gold is just a mere fantasy.

Nobody gives you power, you earn it.

Moreover, I find it very amusing that you guys still don't realize that the circumstances under which Obi got 6m votes in 2023 have changed drastically.
Obi would even struggle to win SE in 2027.

swimmer:
Emotional and flawed argument.

The only thing that can stop tinububis northern votes.

Only Atiku can get these votes. Obi can vice Atiku and bring in eastern votes.

It's the most practical solution bit obidients havnt learnt anything in 4 years. Always emotional rather than logical.

Johncarlo07:
U tink d guy ur quoting dnt knw all dis? Dey do.
But deyve been paid to sell propaganda nd sway d mind of d populace away from reality.

Soo it takes an informed mind to understand d reality of wats going on.

pasol4real:
You ppl should stop deceiving yourselves...
The only way to stop tinubu is an Atiku / obi ticket
Atiku will seal the north n obi most of the south..
Defections or no defections, with this ticket tinubu is gone by 12 noon election day....

chidiokay:
Your assertions would have made sense in an open minded society without some Factors

whether we like it or not we are till held bound by shackles " ethnicity and religion" along " zoning" informal arrangement
i have seen people combine oxford n harvard english to discredit " Zoning" doesnt exist, blah blah is not in our constitution its jus a coincidence south nd North are exchanging after every 8yrs ... whoever want to live in fuuls paradise can have the keys

Peter Obi best chance was 2023, and now that a southerner had done 4yrs Obi chances are thwarted cos its will disrupt North comeback 2031 via "zoning"

Obi suddenly promise of one term is him acknowledging " zoning" exist buh our harvard people say its concidences

Should Atiku contest, he cant win cos is still south turn, and Obi can't win cos North wont let him kill there 2031 comeback, even his platform LP sounds compromised

So the only candidate that can probably displace Tinubu is a southerner that fit one term and already has a wide popularity across Nigeria

Forget Grammar, Forget accent, we practice archaic politics

janeedema:
Nice analysis. Well done.

However, I don’t think your permutations are without flaws.😊😊

I’m an ardent supporter of Peter Obi anf I’ll say this:

If we had a system where our votes counted, your analysis could work. But the INEC chairman cannot counter his employer; else he’d be jobless.

The opposition ought tp have been pushing for electoral reforms if they believed the 2023 elections was rigged, but sadly, they are quiet.

This is why I won’t be voting come 2027, unless there are electoral reforms.

That said, fielding Atiku as the presidential candidate is the smartest way to have a shot at the North, as the North don’t trust Peter Obi to do a single term.

That is a very strong consideration which was why Goofluck Jonathan came into the picture in the first place— he is sure to do just 4 years.

So my take is simple:

Peter Obi should deputize Atiku Abubakar. That’s the surest and fastest way to get a South Eastern President. Atiku will want to leave that legacy.

Penguin2:
You are right.

But the choice for the north is simple.


From your analysis I can see that Jonathan is your perfect fit for 2027 but trust me, Jonathan cannot put Nigerians in the streets the way Peter Obi would.

I don’t know why you people are not seeing it. But with a Peter Obi, you don’t need to campaign. Nigerians are asking for Peter Obi but unfortunately, some powerbrokers think they can tell Nigerians what to want which will never work.

Penguin2:
You will give the ticket to Atiku and risk the south uniting behind Tinubu?

So, you believe the Easterners can be gotten to vote a northerner but northerners can’t be gotten to vote an Easterner? Una never ready!

In 1993, the north voted en masse for Abiola against their own in Bashir Tofa. If the north has now become so unintelligent to choose between Tinubu and Obi, then let Nigeria burn to ashes for all I care.

swimmer:
This is the sense that you people lack. So you don't realise that if it's a direct battle btw South and North, the North wins?

Why will you advocate for obi when atuku is his boss?

Obidients are emotional. No logic

chidiokay:
North dont have much of a choice when it comes to 2027, there top priority is 2031 as much as they are not enjoying Tinubu they wont embrace any candidate that will disrupt their 2031 come back

If opposition present GEJ for instance, North have an option cos they will have nothing to lose,
Yoruba adage says ì sé dedé ara aiye lo je ka rantin ara orun i.e the misdeed of the living is why we remember those dead

No be i say i like jonathan but we are cornered, penguin you are a thinker, check Jonathan total votes from two elections he participated ... he had more Nigerian votes than Tinubu not to talk of Peter obi

So your assertion Nigerians will turn out more for a peter obi is null nd false. infact peter obi inherited aggrieved supporters of jonathan and endsars to form obedients.

i dont learn when i am right, so i love superior arguments

Penguin2:
I understand your reference to northern sentiments which is merely represented by the oligarchs. Because I don’t really think the Talakawa in the street is as interested in power returning to the north in 2031 more than he is in feeling safe in his home and being able to afford basic commodities.

Now, to Jonathan, I’ve always been a GEJ apologist since he lost power in 2015. If you know me well here you can attest to that. But I things have changed.

Or can’t you feel the pulse of the people? Do you really think the young people of this country will go the extra mile for Jonathan like they are willing to go for Obi? That’s my point.

And if you don’t have a candidate who can ignite that fire in the hearts of the youth, then you might as well tell Tinubu to prepare his second tenure inauguration speech.

chidiokay:
I dont know if you've being to the North or lived among them but it is not a hidden knowledge those Talakawa are merely foot soldiers of the elite North/monarch/scholars, they dont have a mind of their own

i also believed in Asiwaju bola ahmed buh things as changed change is the only constant however we owe our loyalty to Nigeria

If atiku can gathered more votes as 2nd, my brother tell me why Nigerians wont get vote esp.. against a Tinubu, jonathan had over 12million votes in 2015 who gave it to him despite Pdp must go rage

With the premium shege Apc have shown Nigerians, you think people jump back at Jonathan evil days than to stay with Tinubu so called reform hour

you were a jonathan apologist because he lost, buh still in your voice you havent forgiven APC ... bro there are so many people still carrying that grieve

should jonathan contest it gonna be a revenge match ... however lets see who opposition will present, Obi should not count on LP that party is compromised already

Penguin2:
Don’t worry yourself about Obi’s party. Obi will unveil his party when time comes.

Again, on Jonathan, even though I’m a Jonathan apologist, if you give him ticket I will stay home on Election Day in 2027. And trust me, so many more people will do the same.

You know why? Because we do not believe Jonathan can bring the kind of generational reforms that will change the trajectory of this country the way Peter Obi would.

Penguin2:
Don’t worry yourself about Obi’s party. Obi will unveil his party when time comes.

Again, on Jonathan, even though I’m a Jonathan apologist, if you give him ticket I will stay home on Election Day in 2027. And trust me, so many more people will do the same.

You know why? Because we do not believe Jonathan can bring the kind of generational reforms that will change the trajectory of this country the way Peter Obi would.

chidiokay:
Mmm ! if i was naive in politics OBi finding a new party would have being a goodsnew But my Oga know this today ... ko sii party mor i.e party don finish yeah we have names but they are all compromised by Tinubu/apc,
should Peter obi start a new party ... time is not on his side to have structure across Nigeria, even with LP you saw what happened at the polls no party agents ... lessons

For what you will do, i am totally fine with that But their is no way you can convince me Nigerians will get a chance to replace Tinubu with Jonathan and people will state at home, jonathan time naa two bags of rice dey sit down for my house
when you are with a woman beater you will miss your Ex that only cheat

Do you know All this assertions you have about Obi is just " fantasies" he will do this, he will change that ... i had bigger faith in Buhari .. Mr integrity he will curb corruption .. how did it end

i didnt learn,Tinubu he is brilliant he is visionary, he built lagos, yorubas are sophisticated ... how market ??

Do we ever learn

Penguin2:
So that’s why you want us to go backwards to Jonathan instead of moving forward?

We are not speaking about Obi out of nowhere. He has done it before in Anambra.

Before Obi, Anambra was a mess. Armed robbers, kidnappers, name it, but Obi came in and restored order. That’s what he will do in Nigeria.

Penguin2:
Forget who is boss and who is boy boy, we are talking about winning election here.

Now I ask you one more time, are northern voters so unintelligent and undiscerning that they won’t be able to differentiate between Obi and Tinubu and vote against the man who caused them hunger and allowed banditry to ravage their region?

Is it that bad?

chidiokay:
I am yoruba G, our elders say If moving forward is looking impossible you go back
same elders say; if you dont know where you are going you return to where you are coming from

These adages are " wisdom" .. bro you drive there are times you enter some spot your tyres wont go forward except you reverse it as never happened to you drive more

With someone like Tinubu incharge going back to jonathan is not " Back" in real sense ... jonathan economic by facts/stats is better than Apc economic .. our kind of politics wont let the best of us emerge

TBH i dont know what to check for Peter obi ... my problem is i am a die realist, i dont know how people fantasize ... if you bring ambode, osibanjo i wiill drop GEJ fast cos dey have workings i can reckon

Penguin2:
But has moving forward become impossible? No.

chidiokay:
With the politics of On your mandate we shall stand as national anthem at upper, lower chambers and FEC meetings ... whats possible ??

we are almost fullly in to a one party state again ... where does " forward" come in

Sorry ! i am a realist

Penguin2:
Let me ask you something, are you working with INEC’s official figure as Peter Obi’s true electoral score in 2023?

So, you believe Peter Obi only scored 6.1million votes?

You believe Tinubu won Rivers?

And you believe that, sincerely, the margin of victory between Obi and Tinubu in Lagos was less than 10k votes?

Like, you agree that INEC’s figures incontrovertibly represents the way Nigerians voted in 2023?

Ttalk:
What do you think was the margin between Obi and Tinubu in Lagos.

You see, Nigerians intentionally allowed zObidient to wallow in the fantasy of their delusion, otherwise it would have been easy to prove Obi lost in Lagos.

If it is convenient to believe Obi won 95% in the SE and still think others should not win their base then there's something wrong with such mentality

Those who gave you the opportunity in 2023 are eagerly waiting for you to repeat the same.

You have messed up the benevolent of people who see you as a genuine neighbor, now they are ready to give you the wide berth that u deserve

Penguin2:
Ogbeni leave plenty talk.

Do you, with everything you hold dear, believe that Tinubu won Rivers in 2023?