₦airaland Forum

Was there or was there not a coup attempt to dislodge Tinubu from power? What would it have meant for Nigeria? Today's Saturday Tribune column explores these questions:

I was initially disinclined to write about the alleged attempted coup to dislodge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from power because the Defence Headquarters (DHQ) has publicly denied it and characterized news reports suggesting that it did happen as “false and misleading.”

News of the coup attempt was first exclusively reported by Sahara Reporters. The report came two weeks after the Director of Defense Information, Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, signed an October 4 news release that said 16 officers had been arrested and would face “military justice” over “issues of indiscipline and breach of service regulations.”

The military’s investigations, Gusau said, found that the 16 officers’ grouse “stemmed largely from perceived career stagnation cause by repeated failure in promotion examination, among other issues.”

That, at first glance, appeared to be an ordinary disciplinary matter. Armies, like all bureaucracies, struggle with ambition, thwarted aspirations, and internal politics.

Sahara Reporters took that explanation and detonated it. The platform reported that the detained officers were not disgruntled mid-career soldiers sulking over promotion bottlenecks. They were alleged coup plotters. Then things escalated.

Then things escalated. Premium Times, which is famous for exercising editorial restraint and avoiding sensational political speculation, confirmed the thrust of the report. “The report is true,” Premium Times quoted a “military source familiar with the matter” to have told them.

Daily Trust independently corroborated the same details. Both could not have lightly risked their reputational capital by echoing Sahara Reporters without high-confidence sourcing.

Premium Times even repeatedly amplified its story across social platforms in a manner that signaled editorial certainty rather than sensational opportunism.

But beyond throwing around lazy, sterile, stereotyped, ready-made adjectives to dismiss the report of the coup, the Defense Headquarters hasn’t said anything of substance to dispute the facticity of the reports about the coup. No counter-facts. No evidence contradicting the reporting. Denial, in institutional crises, loses persuasive power when it fails to offer credible, granular alternative explanations.

The implausibility of the denials reached comedic levels when authorities attempted to explain President Tinubu’s abrupt cancellation of Nigeria’s Independence Day parade. They claimed the president needed to attend a sudden, unspecified bilateral meeting abroad and that the parade would distract the Armed Forces of Nigeria from fighting terrorism and banditry.

That justification collapsed under the most cursory scrutiny. Independence celebrations do not jeopardize counter-insurgency operations. Moreover, no emergency diplomatic engagement materialized that week. Institutions do not peddle obvious falsehoods to hide nothing. The more laughable the cover story, the more likely the secret is real.

Matters intensified when Sahara Reporters released the names of the alleged plotters. Premium Times and Daily Trust again verified key elements of the revelation. The Defence Headquarters, usually swift to debunk anything unflattering, stayed mute. Silence, in this context, was not golden. It was incriminating.

Then came the political earthquake: President Tinubu dismissed and reshuffled top military leadership. The timing was too convenient to be coincidence. Reshuffling service chiefs in the immediate aftermath of coordinated reporting on a coup attempt looks less like routine personnel management and more like crisis containment. These clocks do not run independently. They strike in synchrony.

One additional ripple deepened the intrigue. Sahara Reporters disclosed that security forces raided the home of a former governor, Timipre Sylva, on suspicion of involvement in the alleged plot. His spokesperson confirmed the raid.

Nothing further illuminates the seriousness of a situation than the government’s decision to search the home of a former senior federal official who is close to the northern political establishment.

The logical inference, supported by mounting circumstantial evidence, is that Nigeria experienced a coup attempt that did not reach critical mass. The authorities are managing information not to reassure the public, but to avoid panic, prevent copy-cat adventurism, and preserve a veneer of stability for investors and international partners. Political communication by the state has been characterized by opacity rather than candor.

But the surface drama pales beside the subterranean danger. The ethnic and religious composition of the alleged conspirators raises existential questions about Nigeria’s fragile national fabric. Media reports indicate that the detained officers are overwhelmingly northern Muslims from Niger, Nasarawa, Katsina, Gombe, Bauchi, and Jigawa, with only two officers from Plateau and Delta States breaking the pattern.

Whether this distribution emerged by coincidence or design hardly matters. Perception often outweighs empirical truth in moments of national strain.

Had the coup succeeded, Nigeria would have sleepwalked into catastrophe. The South would have interpreted it as a northern Muslim repudiation of a southern presidency. Old suspicions, suppressed but never extinguished, would have surged back into public consciousness.

It would have felt like June 12, 1993 revisited, only with uniforms and guns instead of decrees and judicial machinations. The last time Nigeria faced a crisis of southern electoral legitimacy invalidated by military fiat, the nation nearly splintered.

Peace was restored only when northern elites agreed that a Yoruba president was necessary to stabilize the federation in 1999. That moment, painful and imperfect, was a rare episode of elite consensus for national survival.

A northern-led coup against a Yoruba president today would have ignited resentments more combustible than those of the 1990s. The wounds of June 12 have not fully healed because symbolic injustices linger long after material conditions improve.

Nigerians may be suffering intolerable hardship and spiraling insecurity today, yet economic distress does not erase group memory or neutralize grievance politics. People seldom tolerate perceived humiliation of their collective identity, even when their pockets are empty. In crises framed as existential, identity routinely overwhelms material interests.

This is the cardinal danger that the authorities appear eager to downplay. Nigeria is not merely a geographical expression, to borrow Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s once-controversial phrase. Nigeria is a precarious compact among ethnicities, religions, histories, and anxieties.

Military adventurism, when layered upon identity fault lines, becomes political arson. It is not an assault on one administration. It is an assault on the delicate architecture that keeps the republic intact.

This moment demands two sober reflections.

First, the military must confront its internal contradictions, promotion culture, and factional tensions transparently and responsibly. Armed forces that cannot discipline discontent ethically and lawfully inadvertently invite disloyalty and adventurism. The aborted plot is only a symptom.

Second, the government must resist the reflex to smother inconvenient truths. Secrecy accelerates suspicion. Nigeria’s citizens have matured politically; they can process national challenges without descending into chaos. Shielding the public from reality infantilizes the electorate and breeds cynicism.

Federal cohesion today rests on credibility rather than coercion. The Nigerian constitution is only as strong as the public trust that undergirds it. Democratic legitimacy cannot be defended with half-truths and clumsy denials. It must be upheld with transparency and accountability.

Something serious happened in those barracks. Nigerians can feel it in the tone of the denials, the choreography of the shake-ups, the eerie quiet of usually voluble institutions. The government’s instinct to suffocate the story is understandable, yet it is also counterproductive. The more the truth is suppressed, the more combustible it becomes.

The great paradox of power is that strength grows from candor, not concealment. Nigeria has survived crises more convulsive than this one. It can survive this, too. Survival requires confronting the truth head-on, acknowledging the fissures, and recommitting to democratic stability as a non-negotiable national imperative.

A nation that tiptoes around its dangers invites its downfall. A nation that stares them in the face earns its future. Let Nigeria choose the latter.

https://www.farooqkperogi.com/2025/11/the-coup-that-dare-not-speak-its-name.html nlfpmod

"Federal cohesion today rests on credibility rather than coercion. The Nigerian constitution is only as strong as the public trust that undergirds it.
Democratic legitimacy cannot be defended with half-truths and clumsy denials. It must be upheld with transparency and accountability... "
A nation that tiptoes around its dangers invites its downfall. A nation that stares them in the face earns its future. Let Nigeria choose the latter."

Fake arse coup that was scripted by the propaganda machine - Hay Pee Sea!

A coup happened, but in the quest to downplayed it on the alter of see no evil and say no evil, the government choose to lie senselessly. Perhaps based on the names of those involved given the geographical background of those involved.

Now the chips are down and reality is clearer. A government ran based on lies and propaganda is doomed of fail.

Tinubu and his cabals should sit down and ask themselves tactical questions like--"Where have they done or gone wrong for these men to start planning coup". Something we've never heard of since Nigeria returned to democracy

^^^^^^
Madness to think only tinubu has survived a largely northern coup since 1999 return to demo-crazy. All these ND elements secretly cowardly covertly supporting the unjustifiable, have you forgotten how on same army parade in 2014 one crazy northern goat went bunkers and was struggling with his rifle when GEJ was suppose to be seated just few metre away?
You must think every poster here is motivated by election pain or national cake to peddle such daft lies.

When they implement that Toxic Tax policy next year, they will have their hands full from the youths of this country.

Racoon:
A coup happened, but in the quest to downplayed it on the alter of see no evil and say no evil, the government choose to lie senselessly. Perhaps based on the names of those involved given the geographical background of those involved.

Now the chips are down and reality is clearer. A government ran based on lies and propaganda is doomed of fail.

while the govt is guilty of haevy doses of lies n propaganda, where were these coup plotting goats under a buhari the north touted as perfect in character and performance?
The reason Nigeria can never move ahead is that region. Whatever favours them is what is permissible. Orderliness is secondary to their self-interest. In their eyes, they are the supreme ethnic group and religion.

PlasmaTV:
Fake arse coup that was scripted by the propaganda machine - Hay Pee Sea!

Simply because it was not successful ?

WizardOfNG:
I have noticed it is you, OP and your ethnic co-travellers supporting the so-called coup with all manner of excuses. You even ignorantly cite a "toxic tax policy", trying to make the crime fit the man (Tinubu) by force, to describe beneficial tax reforms you know nothing about expert globally have endorsed .

If I recall correctly one poster, Maxymilliano, even praised those locked up for planning the said coup as "heroes".

Even long before now, you have begged for a coup desperately to remove Tinubu. Your pastor advised Remi Tinubu to poison her husband so he would not sworn in.

You guys never learn. The Igbo coup, and the inital revenge coup it precipitated, plus the many that happened afterwards once your fathers and grandfather had set the precedence, is the cause of virtually every negative thing Nigeria has become today.

You should take note of what Kperogi wrote, repeated below, which is the reason many wise, responsible and critical-thinking folks , including Kperogi himself, have not been saying much about this coup because they understand the grave consequences it portered for Nigeria if indeed such an incendiarily ethnocentric coup had been planned and succeeded.

Unlike you immature lot who, like toddlers, don't think of long term consequences of actions once you want a certain outcome badly.

Personally, I have not said anything about the alleged coup and won't say much beyond this post. We make our beds and lay in it, as men, after the consequences arrive.

Although that is never the case with you 'cut your nose to spite your face' lot who, for example, followed Kanu and co blindly, thinking you were taking the battle to Fulanis, yet you have now destroyed your own region and done damage that will take decades to repair.

You want Tinubu out so your Igbo Presidency dream can materialise? Embrace democracy and achieve your objective that way. Lies, propaganda and support for what will potentially destroy countless lives, so you get your way, won't lead to your Igbo Presidency ever.

You can say whatever you like. You APC elements did worse than any group of people.

Hot coals on your heads. Insha Allah.

Softmirror:
Another funny thread. Tinubu have beaten them even in military tactics in bid to over throw him. Na Almighty God dey behind Tinubu o.

I just dey laugh you. You forget say Tinubu na Yoruba man

Dalohad:
You can say whatever you like. You APC elements did worse than any group of people.

Hot coals on your heads. Insha Allah.

Lol. Expected response. You may be 50 or even 60 but you, like most of your kinsmen, lack emotional intelligence plus the capacity to think critically and pragmatically.

You will always fail and come up short per societally important considerations like political leadership and public administration of ethno-religiously diverse geographical spaces .

This is because, beyond what matters to you and yours most i.e making money by any means possible, you will always lack the desirable quality man needs to understand what is most important about life and humanity that enables him do the right things so that different people lumbered together in a geographical space naturally seek and achieve compromises that aids the greater good of all.

Racoon:
A coup happened, but in the quest to downplayed it on the alter of see no evil and say no evil, the government choose to lie senselessly. Perhaps based on the names of those involved given the geographical background of those involved.

Now the chips are down and reality is clearer. A government ran based on lies and propaganda is doomed of fail.

The irony dripping in that last paragraph of yours is A grade. A deveroper complaining about lying and propaganda? Just like a shrew complaining about body odor.

Typing:
I just dey laugh you. You forget say Tinubu na Yoruba man

Tinubu being a Yoruba man is what is securing him there. You think your agulu fraud wouldn't have been yanked off that seat in he same situation? Lilz. Yorubas are not igbos that make noise and chestbeat while hiding under their beds. As Kperogi pointed out, the coup would've been the end of Nigeria if it had been carried out. Yorubas would've been pissed, and Yorubas being pissed always hit Nigeria hard (check "wet I e", 1983 riots that led to Buhari coup, June 12).

Just imagine if the cuu planners were from the east!!!!!!

Mouth would've been foaming for days!!!

Brenbentondiaz:
Tinubu being a Yoruba man is what is securing him there. You think your agulu fraud wouldn't have been yanked off that seat in he same situation? Lilz. Yorubas are not igbos that make noise and chestbeat while hiding under their beds. As Kperogi pointed out, the coup would've been the end of Nigeria if it had been carried out. Yorubas would've been pissed, and Yorubas being pissed always hit Nigeria hard (check "wet I e", 1983 riots that led to Buhari coup, June 12).

Check the post history of the he person you quoted and see he was a staunch tinubu supporter and is a pure northerner who is now against the bulaba and free yourself from obsession about the south easterners....smh

WizardOfNG:
Lol. Expected response. You may be 50 or even 60 but you, like most of your kinsmen, lack emotional intelligence plus the capacity to think critically and pragmatically.

You will always fail and come up short per societally important considerations like political leadership and public administration of ethno-religiously diverse geographical spaces .

This is because, beyond what matters to you and yours most i.e making money by any means possible, you will always lack the desirable quality man needs to understand what is most important about life and humanity that enables him do the right things so that different people lumbered together in a geographical space naturally seek and achieve compromises that aids the greater good of all.

Please go find food chop
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Softmirror:
Another funny thread. Tinubu have beaten them even in military tactics in bid to over throw him. Na Almighty God dey behind Tinubu o.

If surviving every rumor is “military tactics,” then we should call him General of Excuses. The real battle is against bad governance, not imaginary coups.

WizardOfNG:
I have noticed it is you, OP and your ethnic co-travellers supporting the so-called coup with all manner of excuses. You even ignorantly cite a "toxic tax policy", trying to make the crime fit the man (Tinubu) by force, to describe beneficial tax reforms you know nothing about expert globally have endorsed .

If I recall correctly one poster, Maxymilliano, even praised those locked up for planning the said coup as "heroes".

Even long before now, you have begged for a coup desperately to remove Tinubu. Your pastor advised Remi Tinubu to poison her husband so he would not sworn in.

You guys never learn. The Igbo coup, and the inital revenge coup it precipitated, plus the many that happened afterwards once your fathers and grandfather had set the precedence, is the cause of virtually every negative thing Nigeria has become today.

You should take note of what Kperogi wrote, repeated below, which is the reason many wise, responsible and critical-thinking folks , including Kperogi himself, have not been saying much about this coup because they understand the grave consequences it portered for Nigeria if indeed such an incendiarily ethnocentric coup had been planned and succeeded.

Unlike you immature lot who, like toddlers, don't think of long term consequences of actions once you want a certain outcome badly.

Personally, I have not said anything about the alleged coup and won't say much beyond this post. We make our beds and lay in it, as men, after the consequences arrive.

Although that is never the case with you 'cut your nose to spite your face' lot who, for example, followed Kanu and co blindly, thinking you were taking the battle to Fulanis, yet you have now destroyed your own region and done damage that will take decades to repair.

You want Tinubu out so your Igbo Presidency dream can materialise? Embrace democracy and achieve your objective that way. Lies, propaganda and support for what will potentially destroy countless lives, so you get your way, won't lead to your Igbo Presidency ever.

It's amazing how you waste your time typing this long rubbish. Who do you think has time to read this bumkum

My take on this coup is that it might be a ruse orchestrated by Tinubu himself, with the help to Ribadu, maybe he did it to expose moles in his government.

How can a slave accuse his master of plotting coup against him?


Slave can never accuse his master no matter what, a slave must remain loyal to the master

There was no coup attempt. Tinubu and his cohorts just wanted to rouse the sympathy of the people and then have an excuse to further sideline some parts of this country.

Nobody can say except the planners and arrestors.

sweerychick:
My take on this coup is that it might be orchestrated by Tinubu himself, with the help to Ribadu, maybe he did it to expose moles in his government.

Too much american movies.

Greenback:
Just imagine if the cuu planners were from the east!!!!!!

Mouth would've been foaming for days!!!

They would have rolled out all their bombs, artillery and war machines online, on newspapers firing from all angles and bulldozers, pay loaders and cranes will be at all the Igbo dominated markets and estates in Lagos demolishing Igbo people's houses and properties claiming they are illegal buildings blocking the air that comes into Lagos state

Had the coup succeeded, Nigeria would have sleepwalked into catastrophe. The South would have interpreted it as a northern Muslim repudiation of a southern presidency.

This Yoruba Muslim and his usual bullocks.
Nothing irritates me more than this nonsensical, hypocritical talk of 'Southern' presidency.

NOTHING would have happened if the coup had succeeded, other than a few suppressed rantings in the South West. The South East and South South would look on with utmost indifference, or relief, even.

All a huge hoax. Why?? A coup if really intended, would have been successful.

Softmirror:
Another funny thread. Tinubu have beaten them even in military tactics in bid to over throw him. Na Almighty God dey behind Tinubu o.

Is there any coup attempt?

Hmmmm

I like your comment @WizardOfNG

Toddlers don't think of the consequences of their actions, mature men lay their beds and lie on it...

Idiots don't think of consequences. I do not know why some people think because your foolish insensitive candidate lost an election you should set the country on fire.

I am not supporting anybody but I can read the room and smell the coffee

Those who have the most to loose in a firefight are the ones going around with torches. One wonders if they didnt learn from their ancestors.

So is that why Wale Edun fainted when he saw his name on number 4 on the kill list?.