₦airaland Forum

Long before Nigeria heads into another election cycle, the battle for power is already being fought and won through defections. Across party lines, governors elected on the platforms of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and, in isolated cases, smaller opposition parties, have abandoned their mandates to pitch camp with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Political analysts believe that the timing is striking as these crossovers are happening not in the aftermath of electoral defeat, but well ahead of the next governorship contests.

LEADERSHIP Weekend reports that this pre-election migration has quietly altered the political equation. By drawing sitting governors into its fold, the APC is consolidating influence without testing its popularity at the upcoming 2027 polls, while the opposition bleeds power from within. Beyond the numbers, the trend reflects a political culture where access to federal power, protection, and relevance often outweigh party loyalty or ideological commitment, setting the stage for a deeper examination of what these defections mean for Nigeria’s democracy and opposition politics.

For the APC, the defections translate into expanded territorial control, greater leverage over federal-state relations, and a reinforced dominance ahead of future electoral contests, while for the PDP and other opposition parties, however, the losses expose internal fragilities, weak party cohesion, ineffective conflict management, and the absence of ideological anchors strong enough to retain power holders under pressure. This further raises uncomfortable questions about the health of opposition politics and the true cost of political stability achieved without voter participation.

One of the earliest signals of this political realignment emerged from the South -South with the defection of Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, effectively ending the PDP’s long-standing control of the oil-rich state. Explaining his decision, Oborevwori said the move was taken “in the overall interest of Delta State,” arguing that alignment with the ruling party would enhance development and strengthen cooperation with the federal government. He added that the decision followed extensive consultations and was driven primarily by governance considerations.

Another major blow to the opposition followed when Governor Umo Eno , of Akwa Ibom State later announced his defection, citing what he described as the PDP’s declining fortunes at the national level. In a public address, Eno said he could no longer “guarantee electoral victory under the PDP,” adding that the party’s internal challenges had made effective governance increasingly difficult. According to him, joining the APC was necessary to ensure political stability and sustain development in the state.

Next , was the South-East, where the Governor of Enugu State , Peter Mbah, officially defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Mbah announced his decision during a state-wide broadcast, describing it as a strategic move intended to more directly link the South-East with the centre of power.

He commended President Bola Tinubu’s policies, noting that Enugu State had benefited from significant federal support under the current administration. The governor defected alongside members of the State House of Assembly, council chairmen, councillors, and other political actors, effectively transferring the PDP’s governing structure in the state into the fold of the ruling party.

Bayelsa State Governor, Douye Diri, followed after months of political calculation. Justifying his move, Diri said he did not want Bayelsa State to be “buried with the PDP,” a remark that resonated widely and reflected growing anxiety among opposition governors over political isolation outside the orbit of the ruling party.

In Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s defection came after prolonged political instability and internal party crises. Speaking on his decision, Fubara said alignment with the federal government was essential for stability, noting that without such support he “would have been a former governor by now.” His statement underscored how federal influence and internal party conflicts can combine to push elected officials toward defection as a strategy for political survival.

The most recent confirmation before the Plateau development came from Taraba State. After weeks of speculation, Governor Agbu Kefas formally defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Kefas officially registered as an APC member at his ward, Hospital Ward, in Wukari Local Government Area, where he received his membership card from the ward chairman.

He said a date would be announced for the official defection ceremony, noting that the move was taken in the overall interest of Taraba State. Addressing party executives after his registration, Kefas assured them of his commitment to transforming the state and promoting inclusive governance aimed at delivering greater dividends of democracy.

He disclosed that an earlier plan to formally defect on November 19 was postponed following the abduction of schoolchildren in Kebbi State. “This movement is about the destiny of the people of Taraba, and we are expecting many visitors for the ceremony,” he said.

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Long before Nigeria heads into another election cycle, the battle for power is already being fought and won through defections. Across party lines, governors elected on the platforms of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and, in isolated cases, smaller opposition parties, have abandoned their mandates to pitch camp with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Political analysts believe that the timing is striking as these crossovers are happening not in the aftermath of electoral defeat, but well ahead of the next governorship contests.

LEADERSHIP Weekend reports that this pre-election migration has quietly altered the political equation. By drawing sitting governors into its fold, the APC is consolidating influence without testing its popularity at the upcoming 2027 polls, while the opposition bleeds power from within. Beyond the numbers, the trend reflects a political culture where access to federal power, protection, and relevance often outweigh party loyalty or ideological commitment, setting the stage for a deeper examination of what these defections mean for Nigeria’s democracy and opposition politics.

For the APC, the defections translate into expanded territorial control, greater leverage over federal-state relations, and a reinforced dominance ahead of future electoral contests, while for the PDP and other opposition parties, however, the losses expose internal fragilities, weak party cohesion, ineffective conflict management, and the absence of ideological anchors strong enough to retain power holders under pressure. This further raises uncomfortable questions about the health of opposition politics and the true cost of political stability achieved without voter participation.

One of the earliest signals of this political realignment emerged from the South -South with the defection of Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, effectively ending the PDP’s long-standing control of the oil-rich state. Explaining his decision, Oborevwori said the move was taken “in the overall interest of Delta State,” arguing that alignment with the ruling party would enhance development and strengthen cooperation with the federal government. He added that the decision followed extensive consultations and was driven primarily by governance considerations.

Another major blow to the opposition followed when Governor Umo Eno , of Akwa Ibom State later announced his defection, citing what he described as the PDP’s declining fortunes at the national level. In a public address, Eno said he could no longer “guarantee electoral victory under the PDP,” adding that the party’s internal challenges had made effective governance increasingly difficult. According to him, joining the APC was necessary to ensure political stability and sustain development in the state.

Next , was the South-East, where the Governor of Enugu State , Peter Mbah, officially defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Mbah announced his decision during a state-wide broadcast, describing it as a strategic move intended to more directly link the South-East with the centre of power.

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He commended President Bola Tinubu’s policies, noting that Enugu State had benefited from significant federal support under the current administration. The governor defected alongside members of the State House of Assembly, council chairmen, councillors, and other political actors, effectively transferring the PDP’s governing structure in the state into the fold of the ruling party.

Bayelsa State Governor, Douye Diri, followed after months of political calculation. Justifying his move, Diri said he did not want Bayelsa State to be “buried with the PDP,” a remark that resonated widely and reflected growing anxiety among opposition governors over political isolation outside the orbit of the ruling party.

In Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s defection came after prolonged political instability and internal party crises. Speaking on his decision, Fubara said alignment with the federal government was essential for stability, noting that without such support he “would have been a former governor by now.” His statement underscored how federal influence and internal party conflicts can combine to push elected officials toward defection as a strategy for political survival.

The most recent confirmation before the Plateau development came from Taraba State. After weeks of speculation, Governor Agbu Kefas formally defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Kefas officially registered as an APC member at his ward, Hospital Ward, in Wukari Local Government Area, where he received his membership card from the ward chairman.

He said a date would be announced for the official defection ceremony, noting that the move was taken in the overall interest of Taraba State. Addressing party executives after his registration, Kefas assured them of his commitment to transforming the state and promoting inclusive governance aimed at delivering greater dividends of democracy.

He disclosed that an earlier plan to formally defect on November 19 was postponed following the abduction of schoolchildren in Kebbi State. “This movement is about the destiny of the people of Taraba, and we are expecting many visitors for the ceremony,” he said.

The wave of defections widened further with the announcement of Plateau State Governor, Caleb Mutfwang’s defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC. The declaration was made by APC national chairman, Nentawe Yelwata, during the party’s 14th national caucus meeting held at the State House Conference Centre, Abuja. Yelwata said that with Mutfwang’s defection, the entire North Central zone was now governed by the APC.

Mutfwang, who was elected on the PDP platform in the 2023 general elections, thus became the seventh opposition governor to defect to the ruling party within two years. The caucus meeting, attended by President Bola Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima, principal officers of the National Assembly, APC governors, former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and other party stakeholders, also featured the rollout of the party’s electronic membership registration ahead of future congresses.

Collectively, these defections have delivered both numerical and psychological advantages to the APC. Each movement further weakened the PDP’s claim to internal cohesion while reinforcing the perception of the ruling party as the unavoidable centre of political power. For the opposition, the losses deepened concerns about its ability to retain elected officials and present a credible alternative to voters.

The APC’s response was swift and consistent. Party leaders at both national and state levels publicly welcomed the defecting governors, organised formal receptions and emphasised unity and inclusiveness. However, beneath this outward display, quiet unease persists among some long-standing APC members who fear displacement and internal imbalance ahead of future party primaries.

Reacting to the defections, PDP national publicity secretary, Ini Ememobong, said that while the exit of any member could be regarded as a loss, it revealed more about the character of those involved than about the party itself.

“Like every normal human being, it is a loss, but it shows the character of the people involved. It is the nature of people without principle,” Ememobong said.He dismissed claims that internal crises forced the governors out of the party, arguing that governors, as leaders of their states, had the responsibility to resolve party disputes.

“If they are talking about a crisis, it is the failure of their capacity as leaders of the states to resolve the issues. Governors are the leaders because the party has no president. What stopped them from taking that responsibility?” he asked.

Drawing a comparison with the ruling party, Ememobong cited Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodinma, as an example of effective party leadership.

“Look at the APC; Governor Hope Uzodinma is criss-crossing, bringing everyone together to ensure the party remains viable. Is he not a governor like them?” he queried.

He added that the PDP had learnt lessons from the defections and would be more deliberate in leadership recruitment going forward.

Civil society organisations and political analysts have warned that frequent defections weaken democratic accountability, arguing that when governors elected on one platform change allegiance mid-term without returning to the electorate, the moral authority of elections is eroded.

Reacting to the development, former national chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), Chief Peter Ameh, condemned the defections, describing them as “political nomadism” that has done significant harm to Nigeria’s democratic structure.

“This defection is killing democracy because without opposition, there is no democracy. Democracy thrives when there is strong opposition, but it will be dangerous if the opposition structure collapses completely into the ruling party,” Ameh said.

He argued that the defections would not guarantee electoral victory for the APC in 2027, insisting that power ultimately resides with the masses, not governors.

“As demonstrated in the 2023 elections, governors do not determine election outcomes. Parties and candidates will be judged by the people based on their performance, not on defections,” he said.

He called for a review of the Electoral Act to impose stricter sanctions against defections by governors and legislators, warning that frequent cross-carpeting undermines policy consistency.

“Defection has led to erratic policymaking and legislation, which has affected the quality of governance,” Ameh added.

Convener of the Bring Back Our Girls movement, Aisha Yesufu, noted that the PDP itself institutionalised defections during its years in power, yet still lost the 2015 election.

Speaking in an interview with LEADERSHIP Weekend, Yesufu said, “I am not saying the APC is right, but the PDP was the architect of this practice and is now suffering its consequences. Despite the mass movement of governors then, the PDP lost the election and was voted out of office.”

She added that similar dynamics could play out in 2027. “Governors have only one vote each. It is the people who will decide, and there is nothing the present administration can do to change that,” she said.

Responding to the criticisms, APC national publicity secretary, Felix Morka, defended the defections as constitutionally protected choices.

“The freedom to join or exit a political association is an internationally recognised and constitutionally enshrined civil liberty,” Morka said.

He argued that the PDP governors defected because the platform on which they were elected had collapsed irredeemably, rendering it ineffective as a political vehicle. He insisted that their move was driven by pragmatism rather than opportunism.

The wave of defections underscores a profound shift in Nigeria’s political landscape, signaling not just the erosion of the PDP’s dominance but also the consolidation of power within the ruling APC. Beyond individual ambitions, these moves reflect a strategic realignment driven by the pursuit of effective governance, access to federal support, and the desire to secure the developmental future of their states. As the political map of the country is redrawn, one thing is clear: the balance of power has shifted, and the consequences will shape Nigeria’s political trajectory for years to come.

AMINDA:
Defecting with the people's mandate who saw the APC candidate on the ballot before voting for them is neither here nor there. The Nigerian people will still interrogate their performance before choosing to vote for them. Their votes are also not transferable to Tinubu. If it were, Umahi and Uzodinma would have delivered their states while Okowa would have delivered himself as an incumbent governor and a Vice presidential candidate on the ballot. The defections would also not have happened had the ruling party not engineered crisis in all other opposition parties. It's not borne out of love, it's coerced.

ManirBK:
The problem with your analysis is that the opposition is in a splinter. No matter how bad Nigerians want to remove the APC, it can never be realized with a divided opposition

AMINDA:
Is it? Due to desperation, Tinubu has succeeded in making 2027 a two-horse race. It will prove to be his archilles heel. He only won in 2023 because the votes were split three ways. Thinking he will force the electorates to vote for him after having outmuscled their preferred candidates from the race is a miscalculation. Time is a gentleman.

ManirBK:
The Reforms effects is now good.

And multipyer effects is now feasible in drastic reductions in prices of commodity across Nigeria. Fuel pump price is already dropped as at today.

Kudos to APC led Government

AMINDA:
Defecting with the people's mandate who saw the APC candidate on the ballot before voting for them is neither here nor there. The Nigerian people will still interrogate their performance before choosing to vote for them. Their votes are also not transferable to Tinubu. If it were, Umahi and Uzodinma would have delivered their states while Okowa would have delivered himself as an incumbent governor and a Vice presidential candidate on the ballot. The defections would also not have happened had the ruling party not engineered crisis in all other opposition parties. It's not borne out of love, it's coerced.

benardtotti:
Tinubu doesn't need to win all the states he just needs 25% ,the south east is not his stronghold but he will do better this time than in last election you can argue all you want but reality is staring you in the face, no incumbent party has lost elections by a wide margin not even gej against the famed buhari in 2014 .

Tjra:
It would be pointless for INEC to conduct elections in 2027.

ManirBK:
The problem with your analysis is that the opposition is in a splinter. No matter how bad Nigerians want to remove the APC, it can never be realized with a divided opposition

AMINDA:

Okay, but has any incumbent ever surpassed their previous electoral margins? If yes, when and by who? In your view, is Tinubu more popular now than in 2023 amongst the electorates? I'm not talking about defecting politicians. Time is a gentleman.