₦airaland Forum

As this year (2025) runs out and 2026 annouces its arrival,it is important to note that the Nigeria's general election in 2027 is drawing close.

One of the most important things to note is that the year before the election proper is perhaps the most important.

It most likely when primaries will be held and also when most of the election dramas will happen.

Nigerian Political drama can vary from state to state and I found myself lookikg at the drama that is happening in Ogun state. This drama will most likely spill into 2026 and go ahead to shape 2027. But to look at the future, a peak into the past is needed.

At the tail end of Gbenga Daniel's tenure as Ogun state governor, he grew disatisfied with his party, PDP especially what some people might call the over riding influence of former President Obasanjo who was not only an influential member of the PDP at all levels but was also a very domineering force. OGD (he was called) felt he could challenge this and he supported Gbgoyega Nasir Isiaka against Obasanjo's choice of Tunji Olurin. Long story short, Obasanjo's faction proved more powerful and OGD was force to backtrack with his loyalists including GNI decamping to PPN.

When the election came, both PDP And PPN lost to ACN's Ibikunle Amosun who won 51.9% of the votes with 514,962. A lot of people attributed this loss to the in fighting in PDP. (Thunder struck)

8 years later, as the general election approached, Amosun who is from (Ogun central senatorial district) was completing his second term as governor and he tried to instal a successor. He capitalized on the sentiments that Ogun west had never produced a governor and sponsored a rep member, Adekunle Abdulkabir Akinlade to become governor amd positioned him to win the APC ticket but like OGD, he didn't have the complete influence and power to push this dream as other politicians both within and outside the state had other ideas enter Dapo Abiodun.

Dapo Abiodun is from Ogun East and had previously contested for the senate seat and lost. A lot of watchers had assumed he will contest again but he was presented as candidate and after a lot of drama again, he won the ticket in the APC while Akinlade was forced out and contested under APM with Amosun's support. Elections came, Dapo Abiodun and APC won with 241,670 votes representing 35.49% of valid votes while APM got 32.62% with 222,153 votes (Thunder struck again)

Now the present.

As the 2027 elections approach, it is looking as though the same thing will happen. The Ogun west Senator, Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (also called Yayi) has not hidden his interest in becoming governor and has a lot of suport from even other zones as he represents the only senatorial district which has not produced a governor in Ogun state. As of this moment, spectators have put him in the forefront but the governor seems to be against his candidacy.

Yayi seems to be the party's nost popular individual right now (even with Dapo Abiodun being governor) and it seems like the governor might try to present another candidate just like his predecessors have done in 2011 and 2019.

If this will happen is only a matter of time. If it happens and the governor succeeds is also a matter of time as we all watch 2026 approach with facination.

One thing to also note is that a OGD, Amosun and Dapo Abiodun used to be very close friends and it seems they have all have similar traits.

Demetrix:
Anything that doesn't make tinubu president in 2027, I'm inward support.

Saturnalia:
We are in support of your delusions because it has always propelled your perceived enemies (like Wike & Reno Omokri) into the pinnacle of their successes.

Deepspirituals:
Yayi Olamilekan is the Next Governor of Ogun state .

I'm a SPIRITUALISTS

SpaceX:
I have a candidate that will blow your mind, just watch out soon

achorladey:
Ogun politics. If YAYI don't fall out of favor with Tinubu. You bet YAYI is nailed on to take over from the current governor.

The federal power used in installing Dapo Abiodun (Eleyi as stated by President Tinubu) as governor will be used to install YAYI.

Royalty83:
These politicians do not ever learn. At the moment Yayi is even more popular than the sitting governor. Popular in all corners of the state and especially among the non-yorubas which is a significant voting block. He has a solid structure and has been spending money long before now. Only God and TINUBU can stop him.

helinues:
President Tinubu will not intervene in the Ogun politics in 2027. It get why

LibertyRep:
The only thing working against Yayi is because he's perceived not to be originally from Ogun in some quarters.

The Gov isn't as strong and influential politically as OGD and Amosun to be able to unilaterally decide against Yayi

His best bet is to align with the Egba's to produce a candidate for the APC else, he'll lose at both ends.

Will GNI return to the mix? 2026 is pregnant.

achorladey:
Can you share the reasons why Tinubu won't get himself involved?

helinues:
If Yayi is the candidate the Ogun West people will be presenting in 2027, they should forget about it

Ogun West are minority in Ogun state politics. Infact, it's Ogun central people that command the politics of the area. Find better candidate apart from Yayi or loose out

achorladey:
From the above, why did Akinlade lost out to Dapo Abiodun?

Royalty83:
These politicians do not ever learn. At the moment Yayi is even more popular than the sitting governor. Popular in all corners of the state and especially among the non-yorubas which is a significant voting block. He has a solid structure and has been spending money long before now. Only God and TINUBU can stop him.

helinues:
Because Ogun state is the most respected states by president Tinubu amongst Al the states in Nigeria. The outburst before the election Al happened in the state

achorladey:
I agree based on that outburst and the appeal he had to make running up to the election in 2023 +.

Going by what happened in 2019, Dapo was almost of not a goner until Tinubu stepped in. You remember they almost embarrass Buhari that day.

helinues:
The spectators don't have a clue about Ogun. Politics. Let Yayi win Apc party ticket first

achorladey:
Interesting times ahead

helinues:
Because GNI was also on the ballot which divided the Ogun West votes

achorladey:
That's why I am saying that Ogun West get power too. Akinlade polled 222k votes, GNI 110k plus vote. That combined, Akinlade takes it 2019.