₦airaland Forum

Tinubu's historic miscalculation

The weakness Nigeria has displayed under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the quiet humiliation that has followed as a result of a disoriented foreign policy, will haunt the country for a long time.

Even at the height of the Boko Haram insurgency, President Goodluck Jonathan refused to allow the United States or the collective West to step directly into Nigeria under the guise of security partnership.

He understood the historic tragedy that follows foreign military intervention in Africa.

He also understood that once a country cedes that line, it rarely regains full control of its security narrative.

Instead, Jonathan acted decisively when it mattered most, neutralising clear and present threats within Nigeria’s own sovereign framework, even if belatedly and under immense political pressure.

President Tinubu, however, has now eaten the forbidden fruit in paradise.

Yes, there will be explanations. There will be arguments about short-term tactical gains and international cooperation. But history is unkind to such justifications. The precedent being set today will linger far longer than the momentary relief it claims to offer.

The most painful irony is that this foreign intervention is unlikely to achieve any substantial or lasting security outcome.

Rather, it risks transforming Nigeria into a theatre of proxy interests and anti-US sentiment, drawing the country deeper into geopolitical contests it neither initiated nor controls.

The United States may claim a rhetorical victory and move on. Nigeria, however, will be left to manage the long-term consequences, consequences that may ultimately prove more destabilising than the insecurity we were originally confronting.

This is not partnership. It is a historic miscalculation. The first, since Nigeria's independence and one that reverses Africa's sovereign momentum.

By Abdulrazaq Hamzat

In fact it was the costly mistake Jonathan made. That sane northern nonsense cannot repeat itself.

So how can you supporting all killing and evil report coming out from the north? Killing is unacceptable.

The writer, Abdulrazaq Hamzat must be suffering from low self of reasoning.

During Jonathan, we only have Boko Haram and mainly in the North East. But today we have ISIS, BOKO HARAM with three or more factions, ISWAP, BANDIT, LAKURAWA, IPOB and others. So Jagaban did nothing requesting for external support.

We can only hope that the consequences of this miscalculation wont be too grave for the country.

experts:
Tinubu's historic miscalculation

The weakness Nigeria has displayed under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the quiet humiliation that has followed as a result of a disoriented foreign policy, will haunt the country for a long time.

Even at the height of the Boko Haram insurgency, President Goodluck Jonathan refused to allow the United States or the collective West to step directly into Nigeria under the guise of security partnership.

He understood the historic tragedy that follows foreign military intervention in Africa.

He also understood that once a country cedes that line, it rarely regains full control of its security narrative.

Instead, Jonathan acted decisively when it mattered most, neutralising clear and present threats within Nigeria’s own sovereign framework, even if belatedly and under immense political pressure.

President Tinubu, however, has now eaten the forbidden fruit in paradise.

Yes, there will be explanations. There will be arguments about short-term tactical gains and international cooperation. But history is unkind to such justifications. The precedent being set today will linger far longer than the momentary relief it claims to offer.

The most painful irony is that this foreign intervention is unlikely to achieve any substantial or lasting security outcome.

Rather, it risks transforming Nigeria into a theatre of proxy interests and anti-US sentiment, drawing the country deeper into geopolitical contests it neither initiated nor controls.

The United States may claim a rhetorical victory and move on. Nigeria, however, will be left to manage the long-term consequences, consequences that may ultimately prove more destabilising than the insecurity we were originally confronting.

This is not partnership. It is a historic miscalculation. The first, since Nigeria's independence and one that reverses Africa's sovereign momentum.

By Abdulrazaq Hamzat

Does the writer know that Gej brought in mercenaries from Israel and SA that did a good job until buhari cancelled the contract and the insurgency got prolonged ?

This is why I don't take the north seriously they are not ready to tackle the problem ,they see it as a weapon to be used any time a southerner is president
Well that format ends now , tinubu is too smart for them .

This is an over-exaggeration of the situation.

US troops in Nigeria does not equate to a loss of sovereignty. Are you saying if Nigeria collaborates with the US, we will lose our sovereignty? That is a dangerous narrative to push.

I am sure the FG is aware of what they are doing.

I like as these people are crying, I don't support US interfering in our affair before,but I think it's the best thing,it will make more sense if natanyahu could join.

THE NORTH AND THEIR SENSE OF ENTITLEMENT

The writer should stop being dramatic.

The US troops are not in Nigeria to fight for us. We are capable of fighting our own battles.

The presence of the US troops is just a precautionary measure.

The writer should stop being over emotional about this issue

Salewa97:
The writer should stop being dramatic.

The US troops are not in Nigeria to fight for us. We are capable of fighting our own battles.

The presence of the US troops is just a precautionary measure.

The writer should stop being over emotional about this issue

Just to correct you albeit on technicality, there are no US troops in Nigeria, the US (thankfully) conducted Airstrikes in Nigeria having taken off from Ghana I believe.

Them actually being in Nigeria is of a lot more consequence than them conducting Airstrikes having bring given a window of tíme to do so by the government of Nigeria.

experts:
Even at the height of the Boko Haram insurgency, President Goodluck Jonathan refused to allow the United States or the collective West to step directly into Nigeria under the guise of security partnership.


By Abdulrazaq Hamzat

Oga Hamzat, if Goodluck had allowed Airstrikes, we wouldn't be in a situation where militant groups are frationalising and commuting mayhem in various parts of the country.

Goodluck's kow towing to Fulani politicians, who I believe done are in bed with the militants, ensured Boko Haram people were found relaxing in government house in one of the Northern States.

These militants have become way too comfortable knowing their excesses were not going to be checked by Goodluck, President Buhari and if Atiku gets in .

Now they must be on the defensive, not knowing when next US are going to send them to Hades, which is the right thing.

My hope is that when a few more Airstrikes happen, they will break ranks and start naming their (Fulani) political backers who can no longer guarantee their safety as usual. This will happen as we all know there is no honour amongst thieves.

US can also take all the minerals they are mining up there sef, after all they don't want to share it with the rest of the country.

The US intervention is a welcome development.

madridguy:
The writer, Abdulrazaq Hamzat must be suffering from low self of reasoning.

During Jonathan, we only have Boko Haram and mainly in the North East. But today we have ISIS, BOKO HARAM with three or more factions, ISWAP, BANDIT, LAKURAWA, IPOB and others. So Jagaban did nothing requesting for external support.

Are you referring to the same external support suggested by some people, especially Peter Obi, that warranted a verbal attack from Bayo Onanuga, in which he described Peter Obi’s comment as unbecoming of a political leader and as showing a disregard for Nigeria’s sovereignty?

Honestly, the hypocrisy and bigotry of this Tinubu regime are legendary

Good to see that some folks are finally waking up to the reality of the world we live in. Its been a long sleep.

Trump was never a factor that they considered in their 2027 calculations. He will play a major role in our elections, watch this space.

I don't agree with this view. There is no foreign military intervention in Nigeria. The US troops are here to help us with intelligence and logistics support. This is partnership and not the same as the foreign military intervention that GEJ prevented.
May God bless Nigeria for ever!