₦airaland Forum

The planned defection of Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has thrown the Kwankwasiyya Movement, led by his political godfather, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, into confusion.

Multiple sources told Daily Trust that the governor’s decision is “irreversible”, even if it leads to a complete rupture with Kwankwaso, the movement’s founder who played a central role in Yusuf’s emergence as governor in 2023.

The looming defection has reopened old rivalries in Kano politics, raised questions about the future of the Kwankwasiyya Movement and reshaped calculations ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Insiders said Governor Yusuf reached his decision after extensive consultations with key stakeholders, including members of the Kano State House of Assembly, local government chairmen and federal lawmakers from the state.

A senior aide to the governor, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the decision was driven largely by internal crises within the NNPP, which, according to him, could jeopardise Yusuf’s chances of securing a second term.

“The major reason is that the NNPP is no longer a viable platform because of the numerous litigations against it,” the source said.

“Even if the governor stays, Kwankwaso’s inner circle has decided he will not get the ticket. Their plan is to give the deputy governor the chance.”

The source further alleged that resistance to Yusuf’s re-election stems from fears that his growing profile and visible projects across the state could eclipse Kwankwaso’s legacy.

“They don’t want him to outshine Kwankwaso. His work is visible, and they don’t want him to continue,” he said.

On the state of relations between the governor and his political benefactor, the aide said the battle lines had already been drawn.

“Kwankwaso does not want this governor back. He wants a new one. If APC gives him the opportunity to replace the current governor, he will accept,” he claimed.

Contrary to speculations, the source said no specific date had been fixed for the defection, stressing that it could happen at any time.

“No date has been set. Any date you hear is speculation. But generally, it will happen,” he said.

Asked whether reconciliation was still possible, the source replied, “Who will facilitate it? Those who should mediate have taken sides. Everyone has decided.”


Movement splits into factions

The unfolding development has reportedly split the Kwankwasiyya Movement into two camps. The faction loyal to Kwankwaso is said to have the deputy governor, the party’s lone senator, two commissioners (commerce and science and technology), the political adviser to the governor and the NNPP state chairman.

On the other side are Governor Yusuf, 13 members of the House of Representatives, 23 commissioners, the Speaker of the House of Assembly, 19 state lawmakers and all 44 local government chairmen. This bloc is reportedly coordinated by the Speaker, the ALGON chairman and the governor’s director-general of protocol.

A former Speaker of the Kano State House of Assembly, Rt Hon. Kabiru Alhassan Rurum, confirmed meeting with the governor on Sunday and said discussions were centred on Yusuf’s planned defection.

Rurum, now a member of the House of Representatives representing the Rano/Bunkure/Kibiya Federal Constituency and who recently defected from NNPP to APC, said Kwankwaso did not feature in their discussions.

“Throughout our discussion, we never talked about Kwankwaso,” he said. “We discussed strategic issues around the governor’s defection, but nothing about Kwankwaso’s movement.”

While Kwankwaso reportedly held a closed-door meeting with the Speaker on Monday in a last-ditch effort to halt the defection, state lawmakers loyal to the governor were also scheduled to meet Yusuf to formally declare their support.

A source close to Kwankwaso said the former governor was deeply disappointed and initially struggled to believe Yusuf would openly defy him.

“That press conference by the NNPP chairman was Kwankwaso’s immediate response,” the source said.

“He still believes caution is needed so the movement is not destroyed. But from all the meetings Jagora (Kwankwaso) has had, it is obvious the defection is concluded. They are only hoping the governor reconsiders.”


How Kwankwaso, Yusuf fell apart

Sources said tensions between the two men predated Yusuf’s defection plan. Even before President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office, Kwankwaso was reportedly open to negotiating an alliance with the APC that would secure him a role in the federal government.

However, the talks collapsed after the presidency allegedly concluded that Kwankwaso’s demands were excessive and could position him too strongly among northern power brokers eyeing succession in 2031.

Following the breakdown, APC leaders reportedly shifted focus to Governor Yusuf through the Progressive Governors’ Forum, a move said to have angered Kwankwaso.

“He felt slighted that negotiations continued without him,” a source said. “He wanted all discussions to go through him as leader, not the governor.”

This rift, another source said, also contributed to the expulsion of Abdulmumin Jibrin Kofa from the NNPP.

“Kwankwaso felt Kofa overstepped by engaging the president on his behalf. He believes his relationship with Tinubu is peer-to-peer and not something Kofa should manage,” the source said.
Another insider said the APC found Yusuf easier to deal with.

“What does the governor want? A guaranteed second term,” the source said. “But Kwankwaso wanted control of party structures, national appointments and influence over Kano and the North-West. That was too much.”


NNPP pleads for unity; Senator Hanga warns against betrayal

Meanwhile, the NNPP leadership in Kano has rejected the planned defection. State chairman Hashim Suleiman Dungurawa described the move as unacceptable, saying efforts were ongoing to persuade Yusuf and his allies to remain.

Appealing “for the sake of Allah and the Prophet”, Dungurawa urged members not to abandon the NNPP for the APC, which he said Kano voters had previously rejected.

He denied claims that party leaders were deliberately pitching the governor against Kwankwaso, insisting loyalty to the movement’s national leader remained intact.

Political observers, however, say Dungurawa’s resistance may be driven by fears of losing relevance should the governor defect with his cabinet.

NNPP’s only senator, Rufa’i Sani Hanga, also dismissed the defection reports as fabricated, warning that Kano voters “do not support betrayers.”

“Any true supporter of Abba will not support betraying Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,” he said, questioning what APC could offer that justified abandoning NNPP.


Mixed reactions trail move Prominent

Kwankwasiyya activist Comrade Sule Ya’u Tariwa warned that signs of disunity could destabilise the movement. He urged both Kwankwaso and Yusuf to act with restraint and avoid advice that could prove costly.

Journalist Jaafar Jaafar also recalled Kwankwaso’s sacrifices for Yusuf, including financial support, stressing the depth of their past relationship.
Others argued that Kwankwaso risked political irrelevance if he returned to the APC but could preserve his legacy by keeping the NNPP intact.

While NNPP leaders plead for restraint, others have welcomed the development. Former Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development Abdullahi Tijjani Gwarzo described the move as “timely”, arguing that aligning Kano with Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda would attract federal support.

But APC chieftain Abdulmajid Dan Bilki Kwamanda dismissed the defection as a political plot by former APC national chairman Abdullahi Umar Ganduje to block the governorship ambition of Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin.
“We know Ganduje will do everything to stop DSP Barau,” Kwamanda said, vowing resistance.

Analysts weigh implications

Kano-based analyst Dr Kabiru Sa’idu Sufi said Yusuf’s defection would dramatically alter political calculations.

“The governor’s incumbency carries weight, but it will also generate discontent,” he said, warning that the NNPP would be significantly weakened and the Kwankwasiyya Movement split.
He added that while APC is banking on governors ahead of 2027, incumbency alone does not guarantee victory.

This is not the first time Yusuf has been linked to APC. Since the Supreme Court ruling affirming his victory, he has reportedly encouraged Kwankwaso to join the ruling party.

Last year’s slogan, “Abba Tsaya da Kafarka” (Abba, stand on your feet), reflected growing calls for independence, though Yusuf publicly reaffirmed loyalty to Kwankwaso at the time.

As Nigeria’s most populous state, Kano remains central to national politics. Yusuf’s defection could strengthen APC’s electoral calculus but deepen internal rivalries.

For NNPP, losing its only governor could reduce the party to a personal platform. For Kwankwasiyya, the move tests whether the movement can endure without power.

AMINDA:
What Batists fail to realise in all of these is that, Abba Gida's defection to APC to take over the structure will see Ganduje and Barau pitching their tents elsewhere, even if covertly. If Kwankwaso fails to defect with his godson, it would lead to even less votes for the APC, than in 2023, especially in the presidential elections. Tinubu's desperation and prioritisation of self will be his waterloo. He already showed how selfish he was when he threw Ganduje under the bus without a single thought, as demanded by Kwankwaso.

AMINDA:
What Batists fail to realise in all of these is that, Abba Gida's defection to APC to take over the structure will see Ganduje and Barau pitching their tents elsewhere, even if covertly. If Kwankwaso fails to defect with his godson, it would lead to even less votes for the APC, than in 2023, especially in the presidential elections. Tinubu's desperation and prioritisation of self will be his waterloo. He already showed how selfish he was when he threw Ganduje under the bus without a single thought, as demanded by Kwankwaso.

Putindbutt:
So Kwankwaso wanted to give Fubara treatment to Gov Yusuf - the " no second term" treatment. Watch how Bitter Obidients give Kwankwaso a pass because he doesn't have a running battle with Gbajue. They forget that godfatherism is everywhere. Even PitaObi wanted to exert his influence over Obiano, but he rejected it, leading to a friction between the two of them.

seunmsg:
Don’t bother yourself about Tinubu’s decision. He has been in politics long before your parents gave birth to you so stop wasting your time bothering about his political moves.

As an Atiku lackey, you should worry more about the failure of the ADC to gain traction and attract prominent political figures.

AMINDA:
Lol. Sometimes go out into the streets and touch grass. Is your idea of traction paying humongous sums to politicians in order to "attract" them? When is Tinubu paying up the remaining 20 billion naira out of the 50 billion naira and ministerial slot he allegedly promised Seyi Makinde in order to "attract" him?

seunmsg:
None of your business. Focus on Atiku’s failing coalition of desperadoes.

AMINDA:
H.E Peter Obi, a founding member of the coalition, will be formally declaring his ambition under the ADC on the 31st of December in Enugu, the capital of the Southeast. Will the ADC still fail to secure 25% in any Southern state as you predicted? Festus Keyamo is already jittery and jumping the gun. Your worst nightmare is becoming a reality. Meanwhile, Tinubu is still chasing after Kwankwaso and promising him the V.P slot in what will be a repetition of the muslim-muslim ticket because despite his so-called Southern consolidation, he still can't win without the hausa/fulanis. Lessons will be learnt!

seunmsg:
If Peter Obi eat his vomit and accept to run as Atiku’s spare tyre, ADC will surely get 25% in all the five south eastern states and no more. If Peter is not Atiku’s running mate, ADC will not get 25% in any southern states.

AMINDA:
What Batists fail to realise in all of these is that, Abba Gida's defection to APC to take over the structure will see Ganduje and Barau pitching their tents elsewhere, even if covertly. If Kwankwaso fails to defect with his godson, it would lead to even less votes for the APC, than in 2023, especially in the presidential elections. Tinubu's desperation and prioritisation of self will be his waterloo. He already showed how selfish he was when he threw Ganduje under the bus without a single thought, as demanded by Kwankwaso.

AMINDA:
What Batists fail to realise in all of these is that, Abba Gida's defection to APC to take over the structure will see Ganduje and Barau pitching their tents elsewhere, even if covertly. If Kwankwaso fails to defect with his godson, it would lead to even less votes for the APC, than in 2023, especially in the presidential elections. Tinubu's desperation and prioritisation of self will be his waterloo. He already showed how selfish he was when he threw Ganduje under the bus without a single thought, as demanded by Kwankwaso.

Akpan107:
The Tinubu and co don't even care about your analysis...

They believed with Abba of Kano joining them, they have somebody that will backup their of rigging in the Kano's elections without much noise.

If they succeed without Kwankwaso in 2027, his 2031 presidential ambition will now be killed forever, and he will eventually be political prostitute like El-Rufai

AMINDA:
I like how all of you in Tinubu’s camp can't paint a realistic picture of his re-election without affirming that it would be via rigging. Akpan, ask around. Unlike Akwa Ibom, elections don't get rigged in the North if the people don't want you. That's the fastest way to get counted. Tinubu's rigging margins will be coming from your conquered local government in Nsit Atai but he can't rig more than your voting population. There is no equivalent of a Wike in the North who gets his way against the people's will. Every popular politician in the North is only popular with the people's permission.

AMINDA:
I like how all of you in Tinubu’s camp can't paint a realistic picture of his re-election without affirming that it would be via rigging. Akpan, ask around. Unlike Akwa Ibom, elections don't get rigged in the North if the people don't want you. That's the fastest way to get counted. Tinubu's rigging margins will be coming from your conquered local government in Nsit Atai but he can't rig more than your voting population. There is no equivalent of a Wike in the North who gets his way against the people's will. Every popular politician in the North is only popular with the people's permission.