₦airaland Forum

Demola Olarewaju has been one of the biggest PDP media warriors of the past 20 years. He contested for the post of publicity secretary of the Lagos branch of the PDP a few years ago and although he had massive support online, he did not win the election.

He criticised people that were assistants to APC government officials and he declared that he could never be an assistant to anybody. However, sometime around 2023 he became the new media assistant to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.


'DemolaOlarewaju @DemolaRewaju

Peter Obi’s move to ADC is a historical pivot, repeatedly predicted by some of us - seeing the sun at midday is however not a sign of great eyesight, it is rather the ability to see the sun at midnight that proves our imagined reality as enlightened.

It is with that enlightened imagination that I here predict what may play out in ADC, firstly to prevent Obidients from getting too emotionally invested in their imagined reality, secondly to help Atikulates remain accommodating of certain excesses but thirdly, in the hope that a unique set of far-thinking young people will figure how to plug in and make things happen.

Disadvantage is that APC folks may read this and guess the future but the irresistible human natural tendency to exaggerate darkness at 3am and assume the sun will never rise again is always there, and any politically savvy APC person already knows know this is actually the right play.

These are “my thoughts” - not representative of anyone or anything affiliated to me.

The basis for the formation of ADC is directly from 2023: Atiku and Obi polled more votes combined than Tinubu, simple.

Albeit there are three power blocs in the ADC formation: the Atiku bloc formerly sabotaged within the PDP, the CPC/Buhari bloc sidelined and hounded out of APC and the Obi bloc infiltrated out of LP. The two election-tested blocs are the Atiku and Obi blocs, representing a combined voting force of roughly 12 million, but the CPC bloc is also a major steal from the APC and an addition to an imminent voter outsurge from the North. The best candidacy will harness both Atiku and Obi while utilising the Northern electoral base of the CPC bloc along with their institutional power/knowledge.

But politicians must hedge their bets: what if Obi is swayed by the argument of “turn of the South”, even though Tinubu is not a Northerner? What if the CPC bloc decides to press forward with Amaechi as Atiku’s running mate? This is why the bets are being hedged:

An Obi will insist he’s running for President so that he won’t be edged out by the CPC bloc, the CPC bloc will keep Amaechi in play so that they can step in if Obi doesn’t align, Atiku will stay open to running with anyone in case Obi is held too hostage by his base. Politicians will politick and it’s good to confuse APC at this point, even up till the venue of the primaries.

Atiku stepping down and endorsing Obi or vice versa will not work: Obi lost his PU to Soludo/APGA despite endorsing a different candidate for Governor. If Atiku steps down today and endorses Obi, he may lose his PU in Adamawa for the first time ever in history; we need both men together on the ballot in a clear power-sharing arrangement that will produce a strong President and a strong VP - AA is no stranger to this kind of ‘strong VP’ arrangement from his time as VP from 99 to 2007.

H.E. Peter Obi has the most motivated political base in Nigeria currently, yet he is not a politician who has the skill of patience enough to build that movement into a structure. The 2023 southern wave that partly drove his campaign now falls redundant with a Tinubu in Aso Rock and that man is strongly uniting the Souths behind himself through the Governors.

H.E. Atiku Abubakar is organisationally and institutionally strong - not only is he able to rally his own troops across many states, he can also pull enough renegades from the APC still - won 12 states in the last election, 7 of them were APC states. With the CPC bloc behind him, his candidacy is even stronger.

Picking an Atiku at the expense of Obi is as weak a ticket as picking an Obi at the expense of an Atiku. Even if one endorses the other, only the presence of both on a joint ticket stands a clear chance.

The call now therefore even as we welcome Obi to an alliance he has been part of from the beginning, is for Obidients and Atikulates to sheathe swords and make this happen.

It is after all, our future and it is not safe at all under Tinubu.

Source

Previous threads:

2027: Peter Obi, Other South East Leaders Officially Declare For ADC In Enugu
https://www.nairaland.com/8590556/2027-peter-obi-other-south

Peter Obi Will Make An Announcement In January
https://www.nairaland.com/8580896/peter-obi-make-announcement-january

Peter Obi Set To Join ADC As Party Plans Convention. Oseloka Obaze Also Joins
https://www.nairaland.com/8589144/peter-obi-set-join-adc


I Am Running For President, Not Vice President - Peter Obi 
https://www.nairaland.com/8589291/running-president-not-vice-president


Peter Obi To Make An Announcement At 11am Today
https://www.nairaland.com/8590313/peter-obi-make-announcement-11am

Atiku Has Already Stepped Down For Peter Obi - Blessing Chimezie Ezeokoli
https://www.nairaland.com/8590403/atiku-already-stepped-down-peter

Beautiful nonsense reasoning

naptu2:
Demola Olarewaju has been one of the biggest PDP media warriors of the past 20 years. He contested for the post of publicity secretary of the Lagos branch of the PDP a few years ago and although he had massive support online, he did not win the election.

He criticised people that were assistants to APC government officials and he declared that he could never be an assistant to anybody. However, sometime around 2023 he became the new media assistant to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.


'DemolaOlarewaju @DemolaRewaju



https://x.com/i/status/2006338023886106974

Wetin Alex Otto dey wait for for Labour party? Without obi support he can never win Avia state governorship he should defect to ADC or is he scared of tunubu. Soludo will surely move to APC after his second term

naptu2:
Demola Olarewaju has been one of the biggest PDP media warriors of the past 20 years. He contested for the post of publicity secretary of the Lagos branch of the PDP a few years ago and although he had massive support online, he did not win the election.

He criticised people that were assistants to APC government officials and he declared that he could never be an assistant to anybody. However, sometime around 2023 he became the new media assistant to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.


'DemolaOlarewaju @DemolaRewaju



https://x.com/i/status/2006338023886106974

Typical nonsense, saying a lot, but not actually saying anything.

Obi @Obinique

Your “analysis” is political maneuvering disguised as enlightened thinking.

when you spend 80% of your thread explaining why Atiku is organizationally strong and institutionally vital, then casually mention Obi lacks patience to build structure, you’re not being neutral. This entire thread is an elaborate sales pitch for Obi to accept VP slot under Atiku, wrapped in the language of strategic necessity.

The math is dishonest. Yes, Atiku + Obi votes exceeded Tinubu’s in 2023. But here’s what he conveniently omits: Obi got 6.1 million votes in his FIRST presidential run with a broken party structure and zero institutional support. Atiku got 6.98 million in his SIXTH presidential attempt with decades of political machinery. Yet somehow Atiku is “organizationally strong” while Obi “lacks patience”? The disrespect is stunning.

You are saying the two election-tested blocs are Atiku and Obi” but then spends paragraphs explaining why Atiku’s experience, institutional knowledge, and Northern base make him indispensable, while Obi just has… what? An “motivated base” that apparently isn’t structure?

This is the game: acknowledge Obi’s popularity, then systematically explain why it’s not enough, why he needs the “adult in the room.”

Let’s talk about this CPC bloc. You elevate Amaechi and the so-called “CPC/Buhari bloc” as if they bring real electoral value. Brother, where is this bloc?

Amaechi couldn’t deliver Rivers. El-Rufai is toxic in Kaduna. These are political refugees with no homes, not kingmakers with armies. Yet they’re being positioned as equal partners to Obi’s organic movement? This is how elite politicians inflate their importance, by treating failed political careers as institutional knowledge.

Your defective analysis is your claim that “picking Atiku at the expense of Obi is as weak as picking Obi at the expense of Atiku.” This is false equivalence. Obi brings organic youth energy, diaspora mobilization, and the anti-establishment wave that defined 2023. Atiku brings… what exactly? A Northern base that couldn’t deliver him 12 states against a fractured APC? Institutional strength that lost him the PDP ticket to underdogs before? The man has been running since 1993 and has never won.

BTW how does Obi’s southern wave now falls redundant with Tinubu in Aso Rock? This is wrong. The southern wave wasn’t about regional identity, it was about competence, credibility, and breaking the old order. Tinubu being in Aso Rock while destroying the economy only STRENGTHENS that wave. People didn’t vote for Obi because “South’s turn”, they voted because they were tired of recycled politicians. Which is exactly what Atiku represents.

The real irresistible truth Demola won’t say: is that the ADC coalition needs Obi far more than Obi needs the ADC coalition. Without Obi’s base, ADC is just another graveyard of political has-beens. Atiku’s bloc couldn’t win him PDP primaries. The CPC bloc has no electoral value. But Obi’s movement can fill stadiums, raise funds, and mobilize voters in ways no Nigerian politician has done in decades.

Demola is Atiku’s aide, and this is him softening the ground for Obi to accept second position by making it sound strategic rather than submissive.

Here’s my counter-prediction: any arrangement where Obi accepts VP under Atiku will collapse the Obidient movement overnight. Not because they’re emotional, but because they’re discerning enough to recognize when their candidate is being managed into irrelevance by the same political class he ran against.

If ADC wants unity, the ticket should reflect electoral reality: Obi-Atiku, not Atiku-Obi. Or better yet, open, transparent primaries where the best candidate emerges rather than backroom “power-sharing arrangements” that reek of the old.

https://x.com/i/status/2006365225474216035

pongwa:
Beautiful nonsense reasoning

Exactly, very nonsensical assessment from the jargons that he exclaimed, he still comes back to the same conclusion, a loss is guaranteed for the so called coalition.

Oga It is south turn Atiku must step down for obi period

Freshtruth:
Wetin Alex Otto dey wait for for Labour party? Without obi support he can never win Avia state governorship he should defect to ADC or is he scared of tunubu. Soludo will surely move to APC after his second term

It is true, ok, so why did the candidate that Gringory Obi supported in the Anambra’ state governorship election last month not win the election, if u believe that the delusion u claimed has any logic to it?

Political wanderer wey no fit deliver em own state, wan deliver another person state abi?

Very unbiased matured analysis

The reality is obi have agreed to be atiku VP since merger started

He would only contest primaries to save face and the obvious outcome to palcate his base however with a strong concession for an atiku single term

Everyone will be alright las las

Freshtruth:
Oga It is south turn Atiku must step down for obi period

True talk it is the South’s turn, Nigerians will vote out a sitting Yoruba president, to replace him with an Igbo political wanderer who claims that he is a messiah abi?

It is a proven fact that who the Gods want to destroy, they first make craze.

Demola is an Atiku lackey. Basically, he’s saying the ADC ticket will be Atiku/Obi which may be correct if Peter Obi doesn’t backstab Atiku at the die minute. However, his assumption of a combined 12m votes for the ticket is wrong. A lot has changed since 2023 and he’s not factoring that into his analysis.

Tinubu wasn’t an incumbent president in 2023 even though he was the candidate of the ruling party. In fact, the presidency as at that time did everything possible to sabotage his election. Today, he’s the President and there is no presidential cabal that will introduce a currency crisis fee weeks to the election to sabotage him. Again the so called “CPC bloc” who have now moved to ADC are the politically weak cabals of the Buhari presidency. They never supported Tinubu in 2023 so counting them as a minus to Tinubu is a big joke.

Secondly, Atiku rode on the PDP structure to win states like Osun, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa in 2023. In 2027, he won’t get 10% in those states. So, when accounting for the 12m votes, they better start removing those votes that came in through PDP structure in the south.

Thirdly, Peter Obi got a lot of protest votes from Christians all over the country. Sadly for the coalition, Tinubu has shown clearly that he’s not just liberal, he’s in fact a pro-Christian president. Not surprisingly, the entire southern Kaduna and plateau state have fully rallied behind the president. These are folks that voted for Obi in 2023.

Finally, the president has strongly consolidated his position. He’s in a far better position politically now than in 2023. With APC now fully in control of SW except Oyo, SS, NC and NE, I don’t see any magic that can remove the president. Even in the SE, APC now has a solid structure in three out of the five state. With Peter Obi running as a spare tyre to a Fulani Atiku, even the south east people will not come out to fully support the ADC ticket the way they supported a Peter Obi running for president on the LP ticket.

Head or tail, Bola Tinubu will win the 2027 presidential election.

Truthissupreme:
Very unbiased matured analysis

The reality is obi have agreed to be atiku VP since merger started

He would only contest primaries to save face and the obvious outcome to palcate his base however with a strong concession for an atiku single term

Everyone will be alright las las

Some people are so blinded by hatred for Tinubu, that they cannot envision reality.

What we are witnessing can only be likened to political desperation that leads only to a destructive coalition (ADC).

adc is a kangaroo party. a group of politicians who feels this present govt neglected them

Coalition of failures across

A space for Agbadorians do salivate

Freshtruth:
Oga It is south turn Atiku must step down for obi period

Focus on APC, nobody invited you to ADC conversation.

Meanwhile, whether Obi becomes the presidential candidate or running mate to Atiku, it is all to his favour.

If he becomes the presidential candidate and wins, that’s 4 years of presidency.

If he becomes Atiku’s running mate and they win, that’s 4(8} years Vice Presidency and 8 years of presidency.

Head or tail, Obi, and Obidients, is good.

givedemwotowoto:
A space for Agbadorians do salivate

Send your sympathy to Ofunaofu & his beloved Pdp, the ADC wan relegate them to third division.

Burob:
It is true, ok, so why did the candidate that Gringory Obi supported in the Anambra’ state governorship election last month not win the election, if u believe that the delusion u claimed has any logic to it?

Political wanderer wey no fit deliver em own state, wan deliver another person state abi?

STFU get out of my mentions

Burob:
Send your sympathy to Ofunaofu & his beloved Pdp, the ADC wan relegate them to third division.

But you and your fellow Agbadorians are the ones salivating all over the thread

Freshtruth:
STFU get out of my mentions

, sorry, I no know say na so word go pain u.

Truthissupreme:
Very unbiased matured analysis

The reality is obi have agreed to be atiku VP since merger started

He would only contest primaries to save face and the obvious outcome to palcate his base however with a strong concession for an atiku single term

Everyone will be alright las las

Obi won’t be a good pick for ADC ticket as president or vice president.

givedemwotowoto:
But you and your fellow Agbadorians are the ones salivating all over the thread

A very shameless man & his gullible followers, after all the noise with the laborious parry, na run your oga still run again?

Oga man Gringory Obi is a worthless hypocrite that stands for nothing.

Stop analysing. It's Atiku tickets

Freshtruth:
Oga It is south turn Atiku must step down for obi period

Peter Obi for president while Elrufai for vice....Atiku very much is aware that he no longer has the magic wand to win such presidential elections again ..

RichBoy247:
Coalition of failures across

You have to first understand what a word means before you can use it very well.

Do you know what failure means?

Otherwise you would be using the word for the Lagos TAX monster planner, who steals money for employing teachers and workers to make education free for all children and water available for all residents.

You humans are too emotional!

The end game is that, any combination can still not defeat Tinubu in 2027.

His political structure and dominance has expanded far beyond human comprehension.

If anyone still believe ADV or PDP stands a chance, then such person is not ready to face reality and accept defeat!

The play is not hidden or underground. APC already won prior to elections! First time in the history of democracy on Earth

Burob:
A very shameless man & his gullible followers, after all the noise with the laborious parry, na run your oga still run again?

Oga man Gringory Obi is a worthless hypocrite that stands for nothing.

His move to ADC pain you reach like this? 13+ million combined votes de fear you?

Anywhere Obi goes, responsible and patriotic Nigerians will follow. Sai Obi

givedemwotowoto:
His move to ADC pain you reach like this? 13+ million combined votes de fear you?

Stop clowning yourself, If e move to the Adc pain me, make Jehovah punish me, if e no pain me, make Jehovah punish u, u fit say amen 🙏 to that?