₦airaland Forum

The defection of Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra State and the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, into the ADC coalition has effectively kicked off the race for the 2027 general election.

The big question now is: who are the gladiators within the ADC, and who are the likely presidential candidates to emerge?

At the moment, it is difficult to dispute the fact that the contest for the ADC presidential ticket is shaping up primarily between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar (with all due respect to Rotimi Amaechi).

Major Power Blocs Within the ADC
Presently, the ADC appears to be made up of three major blocs:

1. The Obi Bloc

2. The Atiku Bloc

3. The CPC Bloc (largely made up of former Buhari-aligned politicians)

Possible Presidential–Vice Presidential Permutations
Several combinations are already being discussed within political circles:

Most Talked About
1. Atiku / Obi – This is the arrangement some APC elements want the public to believe has been agreed upon, but for now, it remains speculative.

Strong Possibilities
2. Obi / Aminu Tambuwal
3. Obi / Nasir El-Rufai
4. Obi / Rabiu Kwankwaso – This is dependent on whether Kwankwaso eventually aligns with the coalition.

Less Likely Combinations
5. Amaechi / El-Rufai
6. Amaechi / Tambuwal

The Big Question
Given the current alignments, internal power dynamics, and regional considerations, which combination is most likely to emerge as the ADC ticket for 2027?

Kindly drop your opinion in the comment section

Hahahaha nothing like free ticket or vice presidential ticket, OBI must participate in primary election with ATIKU, ameachi and others.

yarimo:
Hahahaha nothing like free ticket or vice presidential ticket, OBI must participate in primary election with ATIKU, ameachi and others.

Drop your permutation
That's the purpose of the post

Whatever happen in Rivers state will shape ADC future.

If Tinubu allows Wike to determine who emerges from the convention or if Wike keep frustrating Rivers state while serving as minister under Tinubu, most APC faithfuls especially from the south will question their survival in APC and the presidents ability to save them from Wikes claws.

But Irrespective of what happened in Rivers state, Atiku/Obi ticket is one of the biggest challenge Tinubu will face.

yarimo:
Hahahaha nothing like free ticket or vice presidential ticket, OBI must participate in primary election with ATIKU, ameachi and others.

Massive celebrations happening all over SS and SE right now

"POLICRACY JUST BEGIN".
ENTRY OF ELRUFAI, ATIKU, PETER OBI, BURAITAI ETC AND THE CONFUSING POLICRACY FROM THE SAHEL.
THEY'LL SELL NIGERIA FOR NOTHING .

richmond500:
Whatever happen in Rivers state will shape ADC future.

If Tinubu allows Wike to determine who emerges from the convention or if Wike keep frustrating Rivers state while serving as minister under Tinubu, most APC faithfuls especially from the south will question their survival in APC and the presidents ability to save them from Wikes claws.

But Irrespective of what happened in Rivers state, Atiku/Obi ticket is one of the biggest challenge Tinubu will face.

You're largely correct in saying that how Tinubu handles Rivers will determine his fate, especially in the Southsouth. I don't see how any outcome will be favourable to him. Ditching Wike and throwing his weight behind Fubara will see Wike turning against Tinubu, even if covertly. On the other hand, aligning with Wike to the detriment of Fubara will see him lose a lot of political capital which he has been struggling to shore up in the South. The people's will are clearly with Fubara but Wike has the rigging machinery in his hands. With Wike, Tinubu will realise that he has dined with the devil without a long spoon.

Having said all that, APC has no answers for an Atiku/Obi ticket. A Tinubu/Kwankwaso would have had a fighting chance but it's beginning to look like that alignment will never see the light of day. Not with Tinubu going behind Kwankwaso's back to try to lure his godson away from him. Tinubu did same in Kaduna by stabbing Elrufai in his back and luring his mentee, Uba Sani away from him. There will be time for penance.

OredoPikin2:
The defection of Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra State and the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, into the ADC coalition has effectively kicked off the race for the 2027 general election.

The big question now is: who are the gladiators within the ADC, and who are the likely presidential candidates to emerge?

At the moment, it is difficult to dispute the fact that the contest for the ADC presidential ticket is shaping up primarily between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar (with all due respect to Rotimi Amaechi).

Major Power Blocs Within the ADC
Presently, the ADC appears to be made up of three major blocs:

1. The Obi Bloc

2. The Atiku Bloc

3. The CPC Bloc (largely made up of former Buhari-aligned politicians)

Possible Presidential–Vice Presidential Permutations
Several combinations are already being discussed within political circles:

Most Talked About
1. Atiku / Obi – This is the arrangement some APC elements want the public to believe has been agreed upon, but for now, it remains speculative.

Strong Possibilities
2. Obi / Aminu Tambuwal
3. Obi / Nasir El-Rufai
4. Obi / Rabiu Kwankwaso – This is dependent on whether Kwankwaso eventually aligns with the coalition.

Less Likely Combinations
5. Amaechi / El-Rufai
6. Amaechi / Tambuwal

The Big Question
Given the current alignments, internal power dynamics, and regional considerations, which combination is most likely to emerge as the ADC ticket for 2027?

Kindly drop your opinion in the comment section

No.4 will be most successful. I said it in 2023 and I say it again.

AMINDA:
You're largely correct in saying that how Tinubu handles Rivers will determine his fate, especially in the Southsouth. I don't see how any outcome will be favourable to him. Ditching Wike and throwing his weight behind Fubara will see Wike turning against Tinubu, even if covertly. On the other hand, aligning with Wike to the detriment of Fubara will see him lose a lot of political capital which he has been struggling to shore up in the South. The people's will are clearly with Fubara but Wike has the rigging machinery in his hands. With Wike, Tinubu will realise that he has dined with the devil without a long spoon.

Having said all that, APC has no answers for an Atiku/Obi ticket. A Tinubu/Kwankwaso would have had a fighting chance but it's beginning to look like that alignment will never see the light of day. Not with Tinubu going behind Kwankwaso's back to try to lure his godson away from him. Tinubu did same in Kaduna by stabbing Elrufai in his back and luring his mentee, Uba Sani away from him. There will be time for penance.

APC answer to an Atiku Obi ticket will be quite simple.
Ensure low turnout in southeast.
Massively use APC south south governors to campaign for Tinubu as a 'southerner' against Atiku. Hold Lagos on lockdown as Obi fever may likely reduce. Repeat 2023 results against Atiku in Middle belt, by framing the contest as one of him against Atiku.
Digging it out with Atiku openly in the north, likely begging Kwankwaso to his side, banking on his APC northern governors, especially in the Northwest to campaign for him and as much as possible, try to reduce turnout in the northeast and opposition states. I admit, it will be close tho.
I would like to see how Tinubu will deal with an Obi/Kwankwaso ticket.

WhizdomXX:
APC answer to an Atiku Obi ticket will be quite simple.
Ensure low turnout in southeast.
Massively use APC south south governors to campaign for Tinubu as a 'southerner' against Atiku. Hold Lagos on lockdown as Obi fever may likely reduce. Repeat 2023 results against Atiku in Middle belt, by framing the contest as one of him against Atiku.
Digging it out with Atiku openly in the north, likely begging Kwankwaso to his side, banking on his APC northern governors, especially in the Northwest to campaign for him and as much as possible, try to reduce turnout in the northeast and opposition states. I admit, it will be close tho.
I would like to see how Tinubu will deal with an Obi/Kwankwaso ticket.

Go to present NE or NW and do anyhow. You may not leave alive.You can see what they are doing to some of thr representatives that went home.How can u suppress SE vote again when we have igbos too all over nigeria. SW president can not win NC votes .He can only get 50/50 thr.
You thin u can rig abj votes.He can only win kwara,kogi and Niger votes

Streetinvestor2:
Go to present NE or NW and do anyhow. You may not leave alive.You can see what they are doing to some of thr representatives that went home.How can u suppress SE vote again when we have igbos too all over nigeria. SW president can not win NC votes .He can only get 50/50 thr.
You thin u can rig abj votes.He can only win kwara,kogi and Niger votes

Exactly, what of benue that he held down 50-50. Do anyhow how? Forget Tinubu is not Buhari.

WhizdomXX:
APC answer to an Atiku Obi ticket will be quite simple.
Ensure low turnout in southeast.
Massively use APC south south governors to campaign for Tinubu as a 'southerner' against Atiku. Hold Lagos on lockdown as Obi fever may likely reduce. Repeat 2023 results against Atiku in Middle belt, by framing the contest as one of him against Atiku.
Digging it out with Atiku openly in the north, likely begging Kwankwaso to his side, banking on his APC northern governors, especially in the Northwest to campaign for him and as much as possible, try to reduce turnout in the northeast and opposition states. I admit, it will be close tho.
I would like to see how Tinubu will deal with an Obi/Kwankwaso ticket.

APC cannot aggressively campaign with "Southerner" or anti-fulani campaign against Atiku unless they are willing to ditch the muslim-muslim ticket and go all out for the South because doing so will further cost them Northern votes. It's the reason why the middle-belt will still be splitted almost equally. The Southeast only need to deliver half the votes Obi got in the last election and ADC will be home and dry. Tinubu/Southwest only delivered 2.3m votes in the APC merger and they gained a lot from it, to the detriment of the other South.

If you're talking sheer numbers, Atiku got 6.9m mostly Northern votes in 2023 at a time when the loudest voices in the North were leading the campaign for power to head South. The North also gave Tinubu 5.6m votes out of his total 8m votes that ensured his victory. The same North gave Kwankwaso 1.4m votes as all his votes were from the North. Even Obi got over 2m votes from mostly the Northern minorities. This was despite the slight voter apathy in the North in 2023. Numbers don't lie.

AMINDA:
APC cannot aggressively campaign with "Southerner" or anti-fulani campaign against Atiku unless they are willing to ditch the muslim-muslim ticket and go all out for the South because doing so will further cost them Northern votes. It's the reason why the middle-belt will still be splitted almost equally. The Southeast only need to deliver half the votes Obi got in the last election and ADC will be home and dry. Tinubu/Southwest only delivered 2.3m votes in the APC merger and they gained a lot from it, to the detriment of the other South.

If you're talking sheer numbers, Atiku got 6.9m mostly Northern votes in 2023 at a time when the loudest voices in the North were leading the campaign for power to head South. The North also gave Tinubu 5.6m votes out of his total 8m votes that ensured his victory. The same North gave Kwankwaso 1.4m votes as all his votes were from the North. Even Obi got over 2m votes from mostly the Northern minorities. This was despite the slight voter apathy in the North in 2023. Numbers don't lie.

Very apt. But how far do you think Tinubu has lost those northern votes of 2023, and don't you think he's likely going to strike a deal with Kwankwaso for Kano votes again if he's running directly against Atiku. Mind you, rigging may be so high in the south western and southern states, unresisted in his favour due to lacklustre of us for Atiku especially if Obi is not brought alot om the campaign tour.. We have supported him before, can't he support our choice this time?

OredoPikin2:
The defection of Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra State and the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, into the ADC coalition has effectively kicked off the race for the 2027 general election.

The big question now is: who are the gladiators within the ADC, and who are the likely presidential candidates to emerge?

At the moment, it is difficult to dispute the fact that the contest for the ADC presidential ticket is shaping up primarily between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar (with all due respect to Rotimi Amaechi).

Major Power Blocs Within the ADC
Presently, the ADC appears to be made up of three major blocs:

1. The Obi Bloc

2. The Atiku Bloc

3. The CPC Bloc (largely made up of former Buhari-aligned politicians)

Possible Presidential–Vice Presidential Permutations
Several combinations are already being discussed within political circles:

Most Talked About
1. Atiku / Obi – This is the arrangement some APC elements want the public to believe has been agreed upon, but for now, it remains speculative.

Strong Possibilities
2. Obi / Aminu Tambuwal
3. Obi / Nasir El-Rufai
4. Obi / Rabiu Kwankwaso – This is dependent on whether Kwankwaso eventually aligns with the coalition.

Less Likely Combinations
5. Amaechi / El-Rufai
6. Amaechi / Tambuwal

The Big Question
Given the current alignments, internal power dynamics, and regional considerations, which combination is most likely to emerge as the ADC ticket for 2027?

Kindly drop your opinion in the comment section

This your permutations could have worked in 2023.

2027 will be a different ball game.

Obi popularity was tested in Anambra, during the recent governorship election he failed.

Same as tambuwal in sokoto.

ADC best bet is 2031.

No northerner will vote an 80yrs plus man for president.

Yar adua debacle comes to mind

WhizdomXX:
Very apt. But how far do you think Tinubu has lost those northern votes of 2023, and don't you think he's likely going to strike a deal with Kwankwaso for Kano votes again if he's running directly against Atiku. Mind you, rigging may be so high in the south western and southern states, unresisted in his favour due to lacklustre of us for Atiku especially if Obi is not brought alot om the campaign tour.. We have supported him before, can't he support our choice this time?

Kwankwaso was in discussions with Tinubu to get the V.P slot but Tinubu went behind his back to try to lure his governor from him just like he did with Uba Sani and Fubara. This infuriation as a result of the double-crossing might even see Kwankwaso joining forces with the coalition. I understand Tinubu stalling on conceding the V.P slot to Kwankwaso. Doing so will be a betrayal of Kashim Shettima and will seal his fate in the Northeast.

If US pressure persists, Tinubu may chose Gen Musa as his deputy or Yakubu Dogara or even the current APC chairman or Secretaryto FGN.
Any of these will lock down most of Middle Belt and Southern Kaduna. Add that to Southwest with better performance for him in Lagos and Osun this time and better turn out. I believe Southwest will deliver between 3.5m to 5.2m votes for Tinubu in 2027.
Atiku will not get votes from the Middle Belt on Account of the threats posed to them by Northern elements through various terrorists groups.
The region at play is the South - South because over 80% of SE will still vote for Obi's party in whichever capacity.

More than 70% of the core North NW & NE will vote for Northern candidate. Tinubu can only divide the vote through NNPP or divide the votes to get 25% from at least 8 of its 13 states.
Denying Atiku a 25% across 24states is the tactics to rule him out and without outright winning of either Southsouth or Southeast Atiku cannot win

If am to predict it will likely be a Tinubu-Musa/ Dogara ticket and it will win.

OredoPikin2:
The defection of Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra State and the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, into the ADC coalition has effectively kicked off the race for the 2027 general election.

The big question now is: who are the gladiators within the ADC, and who are the likely presidential candidates to emerge?

At the moment, it is difficult to dispute the fact that the contest for the ADC presidential ticket is shaping up primarily between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar (with all due respect to Rotimi Amaechi).

Major Power Blocs Within the ADC
Presently, the ADC appears to be made up of three major blocs:

1. The Obi Bloc

2. The Atiku Bloc

3. The CPC Bloc (largely made up of former Buhari-aligned politicians)

Possible Presidential–Vice Presidential Permutations
Several combinations are already being discussed within political circles:

Most Talked About
1. Atiku / Obi – This is the arrangement some APC elements want the public to believe has been agreed upon, but for now, it remains speculative.

Strong Possibilities
2. Obi / Aminu Tambuwal
3. Obi / Nasir El-Rufai
4. Obi / Rabiu Kwankwaso – This is dependent on whether Kwankwaso eventually aligns with the coalition.

Less Likely Combinations
5. Amaechi / El-Rufai
6. Amaechi / Tambuwal

The Big Question
Given the current alignments, internal power dynamics, and regional considerations, which combination is most likely to emerge as the ADC ticket for 2027?

Kindly drop your opinion in the comment section

There is no Obi bloc.

The ADC ticket is Atiku and Amaechi.

I forsee some treachery happening at some point, leading to a group of people leaving, but not sure in what form yet. I might articulate that later

AMINDA:
APC cannot aggressively campaign with "Southerner" or anti-fulani campaign against Atiku unless they are willing to ditch the muslim-muslim ticket and go all out for the South because doing so will further cost them Northern votes. It's the reason why the middle-belt will still be splitted almost equally. The Southeast only need to deliver half the votes Obi got in the last election and ADC will be home and dry. Tinubu/Southwest only delivered 2.3m votes in the APC merger and they gained a lot from it, to the detriment of the other South.

If you're talking sheer numbers, Atiku got 6.9m mostly Northern votes in 2023 at a time when the loudest voices in the North were leading the campaign for power to head South. The North also gave Tinubu 5.6m votes out of his total 8m votes that ensured his victory. The same North gave Kwankwaso 1.4m votes as all his votes were from the North. Even Obi got over 2m votes from mostly the Northern minorities. This was despite the slight voter apathy in the North in 2023. Numbers don't lie.

I think theres some overcomplication here.

ADC: NE, split NW with APC, then SE or split SS based on VP slot

APC : NC, SW, split NW with ADC then SS or split SS based on ADC VP slot

It will be closer than the 2 million difference of last time.

I do forsee APC and ADC nearer the elections making a huge play for SS as that's where is presently in play.

All of this is mute till ADC primaries sha.

You people don't understand what's at stake
If Obi deputize Atiku his political career is gone
Nobody in SE will vote for a Northern candidate again until northerners start voting for a SE candidate
If ADC fails to give ticket to Obi that will be their death in SE...ask PDP
A Christian must succeed Tinubu and Trump is aware of that

Rutherford2019:
You people don't understand what's at stake
If Obi deputize Atiku his political career is gone
Nobody in SE will vote for a Northern candidate again until northerners start voting for a SE candidate
If ADC fails to give ticket to Obi that will be their death in SE...ask PDP
A Christian must succeed Tinubu and Trump is aware of that

What is this one yarning?
Speak for yourself abeg. Ndi political analysts.