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2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet - Politics - Nairaland

Nairaland ForumNairaland GeneralPolitics2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet (1578 Views)

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2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by olushowunm(op): 10:14pm On Jan 02
2027 is around the corner and all political gladiators are preparing for the showdown. Let me say this slowly so it doesn’t get lost in the noise of premature anointing and social-media wishful thinking.

This permutation is not mainstream.
It is not on television panels.
It is not in party briefing notes.
It is something I am looking at ahead of the curve.

Politics, after all, is not about what is popular — it is about what is possible.

Now imagine this ballot in 2027:

• Tinubu on APC
• Atiku/Obi on ADC
• And then — quietly, deceptively — a Makinde/Bala ticket slips onto the BALLOT on PDP.

Most people will clap. Some will cheer. Many will misunderstand it.

Because the real question is not “Can Makinde win the election?”
The real question is “Who does Makinde help without intending to?”

And here is where political romance must give way to political mathematics.

Tinubu’s strength in the South-West is not emotional. It is structural.
It is not based on love; it is based on ownership /Southern solidarity psychology.
The South-West votes Tinubu in 2023 not because he is perfect, but because he is ours.

Now enter Seyi Makinde.

Yes, he is popular.
Yes, he is competent.
Yes, he can win Oyo comfortably.
Yes, he can nibble at Osun.
Yes, he can irritate Tinubu’s margins in Ogun and parts of urban South-West.

But let us not deceive ourselves.

Makinde will not collapse Tinubu’s base —but he will scratch it.
I see this as a way by opposition figures to get advantage in the south.

A Makinde–Bala ticket does not weaken Tinubu as much as it weakens the opposition.

Why?

Because Tinubu’s votes will be consolidated. While opposition votes are aspirational, emotional, and fragmented.

So instead of one united anti-Tinubu force, you now have:

• Those who want Atiku/Obi
• Those who want Makinde
• And those who will simply stay at home because “everybody is disappointing”

Meanwhile, Tinubu smiles quietly and wins with plurality.×This is the spoiler paradox.

The ticket that looks like rebellion ends up becoming distraction.
The ticket that looks like courage ends up becoming convenience.
The ticket that claims to be change ends up managing the status quo.

Let me be clear — this is not an attack on Seyi Makinde.
This is not praise for Tinubu.
This is cold political reading.

Politics does not reward good intentions.
It rewards alignment, timing, and arithmetic.

Unless the opposition produces a single southern consensus that forces the South-West into a binary choice, any third force in the region only performs one role:

§ Chipping the edges, while preserving the centre.

That is why this permutation deserves serious thought — not applause.

2027 will not be won by vibes.
It will be won by structure, consolidation, and who splits whose base.

And sometimes, the loudest “alternative” on the ballot is simply the quietest helper of the incumbent.

Food for thought.

— Olu Bank-Showunmi

Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by olushowunm(op): 10:26pm On Jan 02
The gladiators are all ready..
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 10:29pm On Jan 02
olushowunm:
2027 is around the corner and all political gladiators are preparing for the showdown. Let me say this slowly so it doesn’t get lost in the noise of premature anointing and social-media wishful thinking.

This permutation is not mainstream.
It is not on television panels.
It is not in party briefing notes.
It is something I am looking at ahead of the curve.

Politics, after all, is not about what is popular — it is about what is possible.

Now imagine this ballot in 2027:

• Tinubu on APC
• Atiku/Obi on ADC
• And then — quietly, deceptively — a Makinde/Bala ticket slips onto the BALLOT on PDP.

Most people will clap. Some will cheer. Many will misunderstand it.

Because the real question is not “Can Makinde win the election?”
The real question is “Who does Makinde help without intending to?”

And here is where political romance must give way to political mathematics.

Tinubu’s strength in the South-West is not emotional. It is structural.
It is not based on love; it is based on ownership /Southern solidarity psychology.
The South-West votes Tinubu in 2023 not because he is perfect, but because he is ours.

Now enter Seyi Makinde.

Yes, he is popular.
Yes, he is competent.
Yes, he can win Oyo comfortably.
Yes, he can nibble at Osun.
Yes, he can irritate Tinubu’s margins in Ogun and parts of urban South-West.

But let us not deceive ourselves.

Makinde will not collapse Tinubu’s base —but he will scratch it.
I see this as a way by opposition figures to get advantage in the south.

A Makinde–Bala ticket does not weaken Tinubu as much as it weakens the opposition.

Why?

Because Tinubu’s votes will be consolidated. While opposition votes are aspirational, emotional, and fragmented.

So instead of one united anti-Tinubu force, you now have:

• Those who want Atiku/Obi
• Those who want Makinde
• And those who will simply stay at home because “everybody is disappointing”

Meanwhile, Tinubu smiles quietly and wins with plurality.×This is the spoiler paradox.

The ticket that looks like rebellion ends up becoming distraction.
The ticket that looks like courage ends up becoming convenience.
The ticket that claims to be change ends up managing the status quo.

Let me be clear — this is not an attack on Seyi Makinde.
This is not praise for Tinubu.
This is cold political reading.

Politics does not reward good intentions.
It rewards alignment, timing, and arithmetic.

Unless the opposition produces a single southern consensus that forces the South-West into a binary choice, any third force in the region only performs one role:

§ Chipping the edges, while preserving the centre.

That is why this permutation deserves serious thought — not applause.

2027 will not be won by vibes.
It will be won by structure, consolidation, and who splits whose base.

And sometimes, the loudest “alternative” on the ballot is simply the quietest helper of the incumbent.

Food for thought.

— Olu Bank-Showunmi
is a spoiler for Tinibu instead .
Any body that Voted Atiku or Obi or Kwakwaso in 2023 will still not vote Tinibu , Tinibu has gained no Followers instead he lost .the 5.8 from the North is gone ...Facts
Then his 2.3 from Southwest is threaten by Makinde cutting of some percentage
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by olushowunm(op): 10:32pm On Jan 02
Yes this angle can be exploited.. Can you elaborate more on this?
Educationalserv:
is a spoiler for Tinibu instead .
Any body that Voted Atiku or Obi or Kwakwaso in 2023 will still not vote Tinibu , Tinibu has gained no Followers instead he lost .the 5.8 from the North is gone ...Facts
Then his 2.3 from Southwest is threaten by Makinde cutting of some percentage
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 10:49pm On Jan 02
olushowunm:
Yes this angle can be exploited.. Can you elaborate more on this?
The entire votes from the Southwest has been in range of 2.3m to 2.7m all for Buhari and Tinibu this a reoccurring decimal it will not change .this the only sure banker for Tinibu (Block votes ) Now Makinde a Fellow Yoruba will Appeal more to younger voters from the Southwest only ...for Bala Mohammed he cannot get 100k votes in his Bauchi and the entire North .So Makinde is cutting of Tinibu 2.5m voters in his yoruba enclaves .

All the 6.8m that voted Atiku are still rebellious against Tinibu and APC
Additional Tinibu 5.8M from the North that proper his to presidency is gone based on poor performance and tribalist.the Muslim Muslim manipulation is gone ..this votes are going to ADC and Atiku ( 4m )
The Kwakwaso spoiler of 1.4m from the North is going to Atiku/ADC
Makinde is a Spoiler for Tinibu like Kwakwaso was a Spoiler for Atiku .
The south eastern vote of 3 Million is going to obi .if this can be fused to ADC ( Atiku obi tickets) is bye bye Tinibu .
It will be 14m votes similar to buhari winning strategy.North brining in 10m +4m from south eastern.
From the south South Tinibu can only get 2m Max then few votes of 1m from Central
Total 6m
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 10:58pm On Jan 02
The only path way for Tinibu is for Obi and Atiku, kwakwaso,and more Northern Candidates to contest against Him .
So the rebellious 15m votes will be scattered .

The only pathway for Atiku is with Obi additional 3 Million from Southeast.

Obi doesn't have any pathways in 2027
Kwakwaso doest have any pathways in 2027
Tinibu Made a big mistake in doing 1 party state .this make the contest two horse race .which is not good for his poor popularity
APC VS ADC is not good for Tinibu
APC VS PDP VS ADC VS LP VS NNPP VS PRP .
This is his winning permutations
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by ChiefOloye(m): 11:03pm On Jan 02
Educationalserv:
The entire votes from the Southwest has been in range of 2.3m to 2.7m all for Buhari and Tinibu this a reoccurring decimal it will not change .this the only sure banker for Tinibu (Block votes ) Now Makinde a Fellow Yoruba will Appeal more to younger voters from the Southwest only ...for Bala Mohammed he cannot get 100k votes in his Bauchi and the entire North .So Makinde is cutting of Tinibu 2.5m voters in his yoruba enclaves .

All the 6.8m that voted Atiku are still rebellious against Tinibu and APC
Additional Tinibu 5.8M from the North that proper his to presidency is gone based on poor performance and tribalist.the Muslim Muslim manipulation is gone ..this votes are going to ADC and Atiku ( 4m )
The Kwakwaso spoiler of 1.4m from the North is going to Atiku/ADC
Makinde is a Spoiler for Tinibu like Kwakwaso was a Spoiler for Atiku .
The south eastern vote of 3 Million is going to obi .if this can be fused to ADC ( Atiku obi tickets) is bye bye Tinibu .
It will be 14m votes similar to buhari winning strategy.North brining in 10m +4m from south eastern.
From the south South Tinibu can only get 2m Max then few votes of 1m from Central
Total 6m
Dreamer, keep dreaming... you didn't remember to put it that only Seyi and Oluremi will vote Tinubu, while 1 billion Nigerians will vote Atiku/Obi grin grin
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ivimmanuel: 2:35am On Jan 03
ChiefOloye:
Dreamer, keep dreaming... you didn't remember to put it that only Seyi and Oluremi will vote Tinubu, while 1 billion Nigerians will vote Atiku/Obi grin grin
got nothing to say?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ttalk: 2:57am On Jan 03
Educationalserv:
The entire votes from the Southwest has been in range of 2.3m to 2.7m all for Buhari and Tinibu this a reoccurring decimal it will not change .this the only sure banker for Tinibu (Block votes ) Now Makinde a Fellow Yoruba will Appeal more to younger voters from the Southwest only ...for Bala Mohammed he cannot get 100k votes in his Bauchi and the entire North .So Makinde is cutting of Tinibu 2.5m voters in his yoruba enclaves .

All the 6.8m that voted Atiku are still rebellious against Tinibu and APC
Additional Tinibu 5.8M from the North that proper his to presidency is gone based on poor performance and tribalist.the Muslim Muslim manipulation is gone ..this votes are going to ADC and Atiku ( 4m )
The Kwakwaso spoiler of 1.4m from the North is going to Atiku/ADC
Makinde is a Spoiler for Tinibu like Kwakwaso was a Spoiler for Atiku .
The south eastern vote of 3 Million is going to obi .if this can be fused to ADC ( Atiku obi tickets) is bye bye Tinibu .
It will be 14m votes similar to buhari winning strategy.North brining in 10m +4m from south eastern.
From the south South Tinibu can only get 2m Max then few votes of 1m from Central
Total 6m
Election is not 1+1 equals 2, if it's that easy Tinubu would not have won his primary in 2023 neither would it have won the presidential election.

You convinienty left the solid structure of APC across Nigeria where dedicated party members have stakes.

An APC woman leader in Yobe or a Youth mobiliser in Gombe all have interest to protect

Your analysis is purely based on emotion and not the complex dynamics of election in Nigeria.

You left out incumbency factor, the damage done by bandit and terrorism to the image of any northern aspirant and the money factor that majorly determine the outcome of an election.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by manmade(m): 4:04am On Jan 03
Educationalserv:
The entire votes from the Southwest has been in range of 2.3m to 2.7m all for Buhari and Tinibu this a reoccurring decimal it will not change .this the only sure banker for Tinibu (Block votes ) Now Makinde a Fellow Yoruba will Appeal more to younger voters from the Southwest only ...for Bala Mohammed he cannot get 100k votes in his Bauchi and the entire North .So Makinde is cutting of Tinibu 2.5m voters in his yoruba enclaves .

All the 6.8m that voted Atiku are still rebellious against Tinibu and APC
Additional Tinibu 5.8M from the North that proper his to presidency is gone based on poor performance and tribalist.the Muslim Muslim manipulation is gone ..this votes are going to ADC and Atiku ( 4m )
The Kwakwaso spoiler of 1.4m from the North is going to Atiku/ADC
Makinde is a Spoiler for Tinibu like Kwakwaso was a Spoiler for Atiku .
The south eastern vote of 3 Million is going to obi .if this can be fused to ADC ( Atiku obi tickets) is bye bye Tinibu .
It will be 14m votes similar to buhari winning strategy.North brining in 10m +4m from south eastern.
From the south South Tinibu can only get 2m Max then few votes of 1m from Central
Total 6m
makinde contesting for presidential election grin, LWkM😂, his case would be worse than sowore presidential outing in 2023, he won't get up to 10k votes before he could even get close to this figure he would have to spend billions of naira in vote buying, south west people don't follow bandwagon, you have to be there for them before they would reckoned with you, you can't swallowed #30B intervention fund and expect miracles during election.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by manmade(m): 4:12am On Jan 03
ChiefOloye:
Dreamer, keep dreaming... you didn't remember to put it that only Seyi and Oluremi will vote Tinubu, while 1 billion Nigerians will vote Atiku/Obi grin grin
see the super dreamer calling someone dreamer, even atiku knew he can not win any election in Nigeria again, I pity obi ruinning his chance by mingling with a dead horse like atiku , tinubu has out performed any of this presidential candidates and it's no longer "emilokan", it's now "Lekansi "
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by slivertongue: 5:43am On Jan 03
The division of the votes of the opposition will only happen in the south where Makinde is popular. The North is done with APC and won't bother about PDP
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ofunaofu: 5:53am On Jan 03
I have consistently maintained that the only way Tinubu can win is through rigging, grabbing it, snatching it and running away with the mandate.


In a free, fair, and credible election, devoid of electoral banditry, thuggery, agberoism, and voter intimidation, Tinubu would not secure up to 500,000 votes nationwide.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ttalk: 7:19am On Jan 03
Ofunaofu:
I have consistently maintained that the only way Tinubu can win is through rigging, grabbing it, snatching it and running away with the mandate.


In a free, fair, and credible election, devoid of electoral banditry, thuggery, agberoism, and voter intimidation, Tinubu would not secure up to 500,000 votes nationwide.
Remind me the year credible election was conducted in Nigeria. You guys just throw words because it suits your narration.

What do you call the 99.9% win Obi got in SE? Is that the type of credible election you want to happen in 2027?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ofunaofu: 8:12am On Jan 03
Ttalk:
Remind me the year credible election was conducted in Nigeria. You guys just throw words because it suits your narration.

What do you call the 99.9% win Obi got in SE? Is that the type of credible election you want to happen in 2027?
What about Obasanjo receiving 99.9% of the votes in the South East in 1999 and 2003; Yar’Adua’s 99.9% South East votes in 2007; and Goodluck Jonathan’s 99.9% South East votes in 2011 and 2015?


In your jaundiced attempt to spew ethnic bigotry devoid of logic, the South East only started giving 99.9% votes to presidential candidates in 2023 because of Peter Obi.

Thunder 🔥💥🔥 there.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 8:33am On Jan 03
If
Ttalk:
Election is not 1+1 equals 2, if it's that easy Tinubu would not have won his primary in 2023 neither would it have won the presidential election.

You convinienty left the solid structure of APC across Nigeria where dedicated party members have stakes.

An APC woman leader in Yobe or a Youth mobiliser in Gombe all have interest to protect

Your analysis is purely based on emotion and not the complex dynamics of election in Nigeria.

You left out incumbency factor, the damage done by bandit and terrorism to the image of any northern aspirant and the money factor that majorly determine the outcome of an election.
this will amount to 1.5m for Tinibu in the entire North .I didn't say he will get zero .
I told you the 5.8 gotten from the North due to buhari and Muslim Muslims tickets is Gone .No cleric will campaign for Tinibu again when Islamics rites moved from 2.5 to 8.5m
The North cast around 15m votes while the south cast around 9m votes
Jonathan got 200k vote in Kano
Buhari got 1.8m
Voting out Tinibu is a duty for failure and uncessary taxing of poor
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 8:35am On Jan 03
If
Ofunaofu:
What about Obasanjo receiving 99.9% of the votes in the South East in 1999 and 2003; Yar’Adua’s 99.9% South East votes in 2007; and Goodluck Jonathan’s 99.9% South East votes in 2011 and 2015?


In your jaundiced attempt to spew ethnic bigotry devoid of logic, the South East only started giving 99.9% votes to presidential candidates in 2023 because of Peter Obi.

Thunder 🔥💥🔥 there.
Obasanjo election are not credible .
Credible data started with card reader
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 8:37am On Jan 03
Ofunaofu:
I have consistently maintained that the only way Tinubu can win is through rigging, grabbing it, snatching it and running away with the mandate.


In a free, fair, and credible election, devoid of electoral banditry, thuggery, agberoism, and voter intimidation, Tinubu would not secure up to 500,000 votes nationwide.
our calculation shows 350,000 only which amounts to total number of abegro in South West
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Savedday2: 9:01am On Jan 03
Is almost impossible for Tinubu to be defeated because of the kind of person he his. Tinubu is the kind of person that can do anything just to win. And is the kind that can think outside the box just to win.

Take for example, how he won the apc primary.

When no one was expecting him to win the 2023 election, he use INEC to outsmart everyone.

He even use his health, appointment to deceive the Northerners like Elrufi and others
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Streetinvestor2: 10:00am On Jan 03
All I know is SW president won't see 10k votes in SE Even if remi is the returning officer.
We had 2 APC governors in 2023 and nothing has changed this time.So we should vote him now in 2027 for sentencing Kanu or bringing down igbo properties in lagos for the past 3 years Abi for being yoruba President. . Pls what will be the reason we will vote him in 2027 when the hate is even more now.What will be the campaign statement by his APC governors to igbos in 2027
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ofunaofu: 10:50am On Jan 03
Educationalserv:
If Obasanjo election are not credible .
Credible data started with card reader
Since according to you credible data began with the use of card readers in 2015, Jonathan, the PDP candidate, received 99.9% of the votes in the South East. In 2019, Atiku, the PDP candidate as well, received nearly the same percentage.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Solsix(m): 11:21am On Jan 03
No
olushowunm:
2027 is around the corner and all political gladiators are preparing for the showdown. Let me say this slowly so it doesn’t get lost in the noise of premature anointing and social-media wishful thinking.

This permutation is not mainstream.
It is not on television panels.
It is not in party briefing notes.
It is something I am looking at ahead of the curve.

Politics, after all, is not about what is popular — it is about what is possible.

Now imagine this ballot in 2027:

• Tinubu on APC
• Atiku/Obi on ADC
• And then — quietly, deceptively — a Makinde/Bala ticket slips onto the BALLOT on PDP.

Most people will clap. Some will cheer. Many will misunderstand it.

Because the real question is not “Can Makinde win the election?”
The real question is “Who does Makinde help without intending to?”

And here is where political romance must give way to political mathematics.

Tinubu’s strength in the South-West is not emotional. It is structural.
It is not based on love; it is based on ownership /Southern solidarity psychology.
The South-West votes Tinubu in 2023 not because he is perfect, but because he is ours.

Now enter Seyi Makinde.

Yes, he is popular.
Yes, he is competent.
Yes, he can win Oyo comfortably.
Yes, he can nibble at Osun.
Yes, he can irritate Tinubu’s margins in Ogun and parts of urban South-West.

But let us not deceive ourselves.

Makinde will not collapse Tinubu’s base —but he will scratch it.
I see this as a way by opposition figures to get advantage in the south.

A Makinde–Bala ticket does not weaken Tinubu as much as it weakens the opposition.

Why?

Because Tinubu’s votes will be consolidated. While opposition votes are aspirational, emotional, and fragmented.

So instead of one united anti-Tinubu force, you now have:

• Those who want Atiku/Obi
• Those who want Makinde
• And those who will simply stay at home because “everybody is disappointing”

Meanwhile, Tinubu smiles quietly and wins with plurality.×This is the spoiler paradox.

The ticket that looks like rebellion ends up becoming distraction.
The ticket that looks like courage ends up becoming convenience.
The ticket that claims to be change ends up managing the status quo.

Let me be clear — this is not an attack on Seyi Makinde.
This is not praise for Tinubu.
This is cold political reading.

Politics does not reward good intentions.
It rewards alignment, timing, and arithmetic.

Unless the opposition produces a single southern consensus that forces the South-West into a binary choice, any third force in the region only performs one role:

§ Chipping the edges, while preserving the centre.

That is why this permutation deserves serious thought — not applause.

2027 will not be won by vibes.
It will be won by structure, consolidation, and who splits whose base.

And sometimes, the loudest “alternative” on the ballot is simply the quietest helper of the incumbent.

Food for thought.

— Olu Bank-Showunmi
Poor analysis, South West is tinubu to lose. Anything that will make makinde appear on ballot will harm APC
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 11:39am On Jan 03
Ofunaofu:
Since according to you credible data began with the use of card readers in 2015, Jonathan, the PDP candidate, received 99.9% of the votes in the South East. In 2019, Atiku, the PDP candidate as well, received nearly the same percentage.
the 99 received by Atiku in South East was because of OBI .which mov d to 99 percent in LP
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ofunaofu: 11:40am On Jan 03
Educationalserv:
the 99 received by Atiku in South East was because of OBI .which mov d to 99 percent in LP
What about Jonathan?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by garykoeman: 11:53am On Jan 03
These people and their childish analysis.

Obi 3m in Southeast I laugh.

So obi had those figures and could not influence ADC victory in Anambra governorship election.

If Soludo incumbency could muscle out obi and his ADC bandwagon in Anambra, imagine what a Tinubu incumbency will do to ADC nationwide.

Well presidential election is less than 14months.

I hope the. Opposition does not start their regular song of rigging after results are announced.

Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by olushowunm(op): 12:42am On Jan 04
I hope they prepare well and no excuses...
garykoeman:
These people and their childish analysis.

Obi 3m in Southeast I laugh.

So obi had those figures and could not influence ADC victory in Anambra governorship election.

If Soludo incumbency could muscle out obi and his ADC bandwagon in Anambra, imagine what a Tinubu incumbency will do to ADC nationwide.

Well presidential election is less than 14months.

I hope the. Opposition does not start their regular song of rigging after results are announced.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by olushowunm(op): 12:43am On Jan 04
Yes, that's why I wrote the article..
Solsix:
No
Poor analysis, South West is tinubu to lose. Anything that will make makinde appear on ballot will harm APC
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by kunle4toyeyaho: 1:33am On Jan 04
Educationalserv:
The entire votes from the Southwest has been in range of 2.3m to 2.7m all for Buhari and Tinibu this a reoccurring decimal it will not change .this the only sure banker for Tinibu (Block votes ) Now Makinde a Fellow Yoruba will Appeal more to younger voters from the Southwest only ...for Bala Mohammed he cannot get 100k votes in his Bauchi and the entire North .So Makinde is cutting of Tinibu 2.5m voters in his yoruba enclaves .

All the 6.8m that voted Atiku are still rebellious against Tinibu and APC
Additional Tinibu 5.8M from the North that proper his to presidency is gone based on poor performance and tribalist.the Muslim Muslim manipulation is gone ..this votes are going to ADC and Atiku ( 4m )
The Kwakwaso spoiler of 1.4m from the North is going to Atiku/ADC
Makinde is a Spoiler for Tinibu like Kwakwaso was a Spoiler for Atiku .
The south eastern vote of 3 Million is going to obi .if this can be fused to ADC ( Atiku obi tickets) is bye bye Tinibu .
It will be 14m votes similar to buhari winning strategy.North brining in 10m +4m from south eastern.
From the south South Tinibu can only get 2m Max then few votes of 1m from Central
Total 6m
you are very naive. Were those Atiku's 6.8m votes kept in a wardrobe? Things have totally changed. The 2 southern states won by Atiku in 2023( Akwa Ibom and Osun) would be overwhelmingly won by Tinubu in 2027. With the development in Oyo State,Makinde can't win Oyo state and he's likely fail in his bid to install a successor. The real actors of Oyo politics have since left Makinde's camp- Bisi olopoeniyan, Hosea Agboola etc As it stands today Atiku / Obi ticket will have a good show in North East and South East. APC will do well in Northwest not because the APC chieftains in the zone like Tinubu but because many of them are scheming to succeed him in 2031, therefore working for Atiku in 2027 is indirectly 'prolonging' their own ambition for another 4 to 8years.All what Tinubu needs to do is to make some key appointments from Atiku's strongholds and become more competitive in the areas.So, give or take Tinubu would emerge victorious.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 6:52am On Jan 04
It
kunle4toyeyaho:
you are very naive. Were those Atiku's 6.8m votes kept in a wardrobe? Things have totally changed. The 2 southern states won by Atiku in 2023( Akwa Ibom and Osun) would be overwhelmingly won by Tinubu in 2027. With the development in Oyo State,Makinde can't win Oyo state and he's likely fail in his bid to install a successor. The real actors of Oyo politics have since left Makinde's camp- Bisi olopoeniyan, Hosea Agboola etc As it stands today Atiku / Obi ticket will have a good show in North East and South East. APC will do well in Northwest not because the APC chieftains in the zone like Tinubu but because many of them are scheming to succeed him in 2031, therefore working for Atiku in 2027 is indirectly 'prolonging' their own ambition for another 4 to 8years.All what Tinubu needs to do is to make some key appointments from Atiku's strongholds and become more competitive in the areas.So, give or take Tinubu would emerge victorious.
you are too naive .No body is scheming to replace Tinibu from the North West .
North west and south east are currently the Most hostile regions to the Failed Tinibu presidency.
I assure you the North West Man doesn't see the Muslim North Easterner as a different person .
The 7 North West state
5 South East state
6 North East state
FCT .
Platuea and Niger = 20 state
It impossible for Tinibu to win this state #Facts
Secondly this are highest vote producing state effectively he can't also get the highest number of vote cast .
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Hedonisco: 7:28am On Jan 04
Educationalserv:
It you are too naive .No body is scheming to replace Tinibu from the North West .
North west and south east are currently the Most hostile regions to the Failed Tinibu presidency.
I assure you the North West Man doesn't see the Muslim North Easterner as a different person .
The 7 North West state
5 South East state
6 North East state
FCT .
Platuea and Niger = 20 state
It impossible for Tinibu to win this state #Facts
Secondly this are highest vote producing state effectively he can't also get the highest number of vote cast .
Don't mind these people. Let them continue hiding behind the "structure" of useless governors coerced into the APC. That's their only strategy to win the election. Because otherwise, I really don't understand how they expect this woeful bat that nobody likes to win actual votes anywhere outside the South West.

BAT is even more unpopular today than he was in 2023, and crucially, the north where he conjured the majority of the votes that snuck him into Aso Rock has turned his back against him.

Besides, the arrogance with which these APC e-rats believe that they would win the South South because they have managed to force all the governors into the APC shows just how detached from reality they are. We are waiting for them. Eagerly waiting.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Godfullsam(m): 7:52am On Jan 04
Ofunaofu:
What about Obasanjo receiving 99.9% of the votes in the South East in 1999 and 2003; Yar’Adua’s 99.9% South East votes in 2007; and Goodluck Jonathan’s 99.9% South East votes in 2011 and 2015?


In your jaundiced attempt to spew ethnic bigotry devoid of logic, the South East only started giving 99.9% votes to presidential candidates in 2023 because of Peter Obi.

Thunder 🔥💥🔥 there.
Where is your proof that Obasanjo and yaradua got 99.9% votes in the SE ?

Stop giving out wrong information with confidence.

You created a lie in your head and manipulated your head to believe the lie you have created. Now you want others to believe the same lie.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Godfullsam(m): 8:00am On Jan 04
Streetinvestor2:
All I know is SW president won't see 10k votes in SE Even if remi is the returning officer.
We had 2 APC governors in 2023 and nothing has changed this time.So we should vote him now in 2027 for sentencing Kanu or bringing down igbo properties in lagos for the past 3 years Abi for being yoruba President. . Pls what will be the reason we will vote him in 2027 when the hate is even more now.What will be the campaign statement by his APC governors to igbos in 2027
Overtime, the SE votes have been considered to be inconsequential.

I can't remember any time someone lost in a presidential election because he didn't get enough votes from the SE.
Tinubu and buhari didn't get enough votes from that region and they still won.
Obi got 99.9% votes and he didn't win.
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