₦airaland Forum

Let us dispassionately assess the efficacy of US strikes purportedly against terrorism in African/ Developing Countries.

It is my view that US involvement is not altruistic and as far as history shows, tends to negative results.

Let us start with Somalia as an example.

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According to data from U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) and independent monitors like New America, the totals for last year are:

Total Strikes: Approximately 114 to 118 strikes.

Comparison: This is a massive increase from 2024, where only 10 strikes were reported.

Historical Context: 2025 set a new record for U.S. kinetic activity in Somalia, surpassing the previous high of 63 strikes in 2019.

Impact and Casualty Assessments
Data regarding casualties became more difficult to track in mid-2025 when AFRICOM shifted its policy on publishing specific death tolls.

Militant Deaths: Estimates range from 115 to 292 total deaths (including militants and unidentified persons).

Civilian Casualties: AFRICOM generally reported zero civilian deaths for most of the year, though independent watchdog groups often investigate these claims further, noting the difficulty of verifying data in remote, al-Shabaab-controlled areas.

"Collective Self-Defense": Many of the strikes were labeled as "collective self-defense," meaning they were conducted to support Somali National Army (SNA) troops under immediate threat during ground operations.

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How has the above improved the security situation in Somalia? These strikes are said to target ISIS Somalia and Al Shabab.
But what has been the result and impact on Somalia?

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While the U.S. conducted a record-breaking number of strikes in 2025, the strategic outcome was mixed:

Tactical Successes: The strikes killed several high-ranking ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab leaders. This disrupted immediate plotting against the U.S. homeland and provided "breathing room" for Somali National Army (SNA) troops during specific battles.

Al-Shabaab’s Resurgence: Despite the strikes, al-Shabaab launched a major offensive in July 2025, recapturing several strategic towns (such as Sabiid and Anole) and moving within 50 kilometers of the capital, Mogadishu. Analysts note that while strikes kill individuals, they haven't stopped the group's ability to tax the population and govern remote areas.

The ISIS Pivot: The U.S. shifted a massive amount of focus toward ISIS-Somalia in the north (Puntland) because the group has become a "financial hub" for global ISIS operations. While this may have helped global security, it left a "security gap" in the south that al-Shabaab exploited.
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Somalia remains deeply troubled and US activity there has been on for some 30 years.

The question remains how or if any stability has been brought to that beleguered country as a result.

Look at the history of US activity there -

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The United States has been active in Somalia for over 30 years, though the nature of the mission has shifted dramatically from humanitarian relief to a permanent counterterrorism campaign.

The involvement can be broken down into three distinct eras:

1. The Humanitarian Era (1992–1994)
The U.S. first intervened on a large scale during the Somali Civil War to combat a massive famine.

Operation Restore Hope: In 1992, President George H.W. Bush sent 25,000 troops to secure food aid deliveries that were being hijacked by local warlords.

"Black Hawk Down" (1993): The mission shifted from feeding people to a "man-hunt" for warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid. This culminated in the Battle of Mogadishu, where 18 U.S. soldiers were killed.

Withdrawal: Following the public outcry over the battle, President Clinton withdrew all U.S. combat forces by March 1994.

2. The Shadow War Era (2001–2006)
After the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. returned to Somalia with a focus on counterterrorism, specifically hunting Al-Qaeda members responsible for the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania.

This was largely a "covert" period involving CIA-backed Somali warlords and occasional Special Operations raids.

In 2003, the U.S. established a permanent military base in neighboring Djibouti (Camp Lemonnier) to serve as a launchpad for Somali operations.

3. The Counterterrorism Era (2007–Present)
The modern conflict began in earnest in 2007, following the rise of the Islamic Courts Union and its militant wing, al-Shabaab.

First Airstrike: The first recorded post-9/11 airstrike occurred in January 2007, using an AC-130 gunship.

Drone Warfare: In 2011, the Obama administration authorized the first drone strikes in Somalia. Since then, the use of remote airpower has become the primary U.S. tool.

Permanent Presence: In 2017, the U.S. officially designated parts of Somalia as an "area of active hostilities," which loosened the rules for airstrikes and led to a permanent deployment of several hundred Special Operations forces (mostly "Green Berets" and Navy SEALs) to train the Somali Danab (Lightning) Brigade.
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Using the above as a historical example, can we analyze the likely results of US involvement in striking locations in Nigeria in a bid to fight terrorism. Especially in light of the results to be seen in other places like Libya, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and some parts of the Middle East where the US (and partners like France) have been similarly involved.

I should note that Nigeria's situation is very different from Somalia's however.

*Red text is culled from sources online.

PS: Mods/ NLFPMOD/ SEUN - This topic is not for foreign affairs because it is to analyze the situation in Nigeria specifically and the politics around it. Somalia and others are only being used as examples.

Following, bring more, so Somalia has been receiving U.S hits for 3 decades and not much has changed

SadiqBabaSani:
Following, bring more, so Somalia has been receiving U.S hits for 3 decades and not much has changed

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Thats the reality.

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LIBYA -

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Analyzing the impact of the US and French military interventions in Libya requires looking at three distinct phases: the 2011 "Operation Unified Protector" that toppled Muammar Gaddafi, the subsequent counter-terrorism strikes against ISIS, and the long-term regional destabilization that persists today.

While the 2011 intervention was framed as a "humanitarian success" for preventing a massacre in Benghazi, many scholars and critics now view it as a case study in how regime change without a "day-after" plan can create a failed state.

1. Immediate Impact: Regime Collapse (2011)
France and the US (as part of NATO) provided the air power and logistics that turned the tide for Libyan rebels.

The Overthrow of Gaddafi: French strikes were instrumental in destroying Gaddafi’s armored columns and ultimately striking his convoy in Sirte, leading to his capture and death.

Destruction of State Infrastructure: The bombing campaigns destroyed Libya's air defenses, much of its communication infrastructure, and its central military command. While this achieved the goal of regime change, it left a permanent institutional vacuum.

Casualties: While the intervention was intended to protect civilians, estimates of civilian deaths from NATO air strikes range from 72 (Human Rights Watch) to several hundred (Airwars).

2. Security Impact: The "Failed State" & Terrorism
The most profound impact was the fragmentation of the country into a patchwork of warring militias.

Rise of Extremism: Following the collapse of the central government, groups like ISIS and Ansar al-Sharia established strongholds in cities like Derna and Sirte. This necessitated further US air interventions (2015–2019) to root out ISIS cells that had exploited the power vacuum.

Proliferation of Weapons: Libya's massive state armories were looted. These weapons—including MANPADS (shoulder-fired missiles)—flooded the black market, fueling conflicts in Mali, Syria, and Gaza.

Two Governments: The intervention inadvertently set the stage for a decade of civil war between rival administrations in Tripoli (West) and Tobruk/Benghazi (East), with France and the US often finding themselves supporting different factions or goals.

3. Geopolitical & Humanitarian Impact
The intervention’s "ripple effects" transformed the Mediterranean and North Africa.

The Migration Crisis: Under Gaddafi, Libya acted as a "gatekeeper" for migration to Europe. After the 2011 attacks, the borders collapsed. Libya became the primary transit point for human trafficking, leading to a humanitarian crisis where thousands of migrants have died in the Mediterranean or faced slavery and torture in Libyan detention camps.

Destabilization of the Sahel: The fall of Libya directly triggered a coup in Mali (2012) as Tuareg fighters, previously employed by Gaddafi, returned home heavily armed. This sparked a jihadist insurgency that still plagues West Africa today.

The "Responsibility to Protect" (R2P) Debate: The Libya case is frequently cited as a failure of the R2P doctrine. It has made powers like Russia and China deeply skeptical of Western-led humanitarian interventions, a shift that directly impacted international responses to the Syrian Civil War.