₦airaland Forum

This combo was tried in 2019 and it fell flat not because Atiku possibly didn't win the election but because it was ALLEGEDLY manipulated.

So if the formula was tested on Buhari and it failed, why do you think it can work on a battle tested Tinubu?

Obi should not Vice Atiku, Obi should contest on his own

Governors relied on Buhari’s popularity to win their elections. Buhari had cult-like followership until and even after his death. Buhari has 12m organic supporters in the North. Now compare with Tinubu who only won with 8m votes and 5.6m of those votes coming from the North while losing in Lagos and Osun, his home turf. Compare with a Tinubu who's desperately relying on the popularity or might of the state governors to win his own re-election. Then you'll realise that Tinubu is not Buhari. Atiku/Obi pulled 11m votes against a Buhari. It will be a walk-over against Tinubu.

SadiqBabaSani:
This combo was tried in 2019 and it fell flat not because Atiku possibly didn't win the election but because it was ALLEGEDLY manipulated.

So if the formula was tested on Buhari and it failed, why do you think it can work on a battle tested Tinubu?

Obi should not Vice Atiku, Obi should contest on his own

Their belief is that the northerners will not vote Tinubu so also the easterners. They forget that politics doesn't work like that. However, 2027 is around the corner. The only thing is that they will begin to shout rigging, rigging again.

I don't care who the opposition will be flying in the 2027 election or the combination, me sha know say SW, SS and NC are gone

tinubu has proven that buhari is a competent economist and leader than he is. That's why.

They couldn't defeat Buhari because Buhari had and still even has a very strong followers hip base in the north even till now after his death. Tinubu does not have THAT NOT EVEN IN THE SOUTH WEST OR EVEN LAGOS Where HE FROM

onatisi:
They couldn't defeat Buhari because Buhari had and still even has a very strong followers hip base in the north even till now after his death. Tinubu does not have THAT NOT EVEN IN THE SOUTH WEST OR EVEN LAGOS Where HE FROM

So which politicians in ADC that have the cult like supporters in North like Buhari

Meanwhile, you have contradicted the Obidients beliefs with this your epistle. Sebi una dey claim say the supporters of president Tinubu are tribal cult like, now you are shifting mouth

Because if the extreme hardship this govt have brought on Nigerians.

SadiqBabaSani:
This combo was tried in 2019 and it fell flat not because Atiku possibly didn't win the election but because it was ALLEGEDLY manipulated.

So if the formula was tested on Buhari and it failed, why do you think it can work on a battle tested Tinubu?

Obi should not Vice Atiku, Obi should contest on his own

Werey. Are you looking for easy pathway for Tinubu? Shege, barawo banza

Obiedun:
Their belief is that the northerners will not vote Tinubu so also the easterners. They forget that politics doesn't work like that. However, 2027 is around the corner. The only thing is that they will begin to shout rigging, rigging again.

There won’t be rigging. It’s rig and get captured like Mugabe or maduro

SadiqBabaSani:
This combo was tried in 2019 and it fell flat not because Atiku possibly didn't win the election but because it was ALLEGEDLY manipulated.

So if the formula was tested on Buhari and it failed, why do you think it can work on a battle tested Tinubu?

Obi should not Vice Atiku, Obi should contest on his own

Because Tinubu is lighter than Buhari

SadiqBabaSani:
This combo was tried in 2019 and it fell flat not because Atiku possibly didn't win the election but because it was ALLEGEDLY manipulated.

So if the formula was tested on Buhari and it failed, why do you think it can work on a battle tested Tinubu?

Obi should not Vice Atiku, Obi should contest on his own

Op, Buhari's cult following in the North is no longer on the APC ballot. By the way, why are APC apologists fixated on Peter Obi? 2023 results have shown everyone that New Nigeria is POssible.

Buhari is by far the most influential human being to have contested in Nigerian election since 1999.... nobody else comes close...not even Obasanjo.

Obiedun:
Their belief is that the northerners will not vote Tinubu so also the easterners. They forget that politics doesn't work like that. However, 2027 is around the corner. The only thing is that they will begin to shout rigging, rigging again.

So how exactly does politics work? Enlighten us. What exactly will Tinubu do to legitimately win in the North and East. In this context, legitimately includes vote buying. That is even acceptable, as long as you don't tamper with INEC voter register, ballots, and ICT back end. So tell us we are eager to learn.

Very simple to understand, the north total plus southwest gave enough votes
This time thec north plus south east votes. Plus South south votes leaves Tinubu with only south west,so there is no path way to victory for Tinubu, ok let's be generous and give south south to Tinubu even though unlikely
That will mean south west plus south south votes for Tinubu, still does not give him any pathway to victory
Only rigging can make him win, in that case he will have to commit large scale murder to achieve that,and any victory earn through such atrocities can not last

AMINDA:
Governors relied on Buhari’s popularity to win their elections. Buhari had cult-like followership until and even after his death. Buhari has 12m organic supporters in the North. Now compare with Tinubu who only won with 8m votes and 5.6m of those votes coming from the North while losing in Lagos and Osun, his home turf. Compare with a Tinubu who's desperately relying on the popularity or might of the state governors to win his own re-election. Then you'll realise that Tinubu is not Buhari. Atiku/Obi pulled 11m votes against a Buhari. It will be a walk-over against Tinubu.

Buhari only won second term because he was already there and not because he worked or was popular. All the popularity he had was not enough for him to win election the first time before he was helped by Tinubu and co.

surgical:
Very simple to understand, the north total plus southwest gave enough votes
This time thec north plus south east votes. Plus South south votes leaves Tinubu with only south west,so there is no path way to victory for Tinubu, ok let's be generous and give south south to Tinubu even though unlikely
That will mean south west plus south south votes for Tinubu, still does not give him any pathway to victory
Only rigging can make him win, in that case he will have to commit large scale murder to achieve that,and any victory earn through such atrocities can not last

If Tinubu performs and Nigeria does not break up then he will win the elections hands down. He has done something last year which no regime has done for a long time. We had more revenue from non oil sources. Oil may reduce to twenty percent of government revenue this year and if the trend continues, people asking for restructuring will be more than people who don't want it

Buhari had millions of votes in the kitty even if he was permitted to run a third term. Since 2003, he alone had that number INTACT good or bad in every election cycle.

On the contrary, Tinubu's pathway to the Presidency was not commanding and defining. This is the reason he started campaigns from his first day in office. There was no STAMP in his 2023 victory, those who feel the opposition has a chance are not wrong.

Again, there will be casualties especially in the NASS however I think Tinubu will be returned because he has thrown money and pecks of office around that the opposition cannot even take a stand or see itself. He is the luckiest politician since 1999, to even see opposition supporters tear at each other on a daily basis.

Some things remain the same:
- Atiku takes ADC ticket
- Obi must be on the ballot

So what will happen, another divided opposition!

fergie001:
Buhari had millions of votes in the kitty even if he was permitted to run a third term. Since 2003, he alone had that number INTACT good or bad in every election cycle.

On the contrary, Tinubu's pathway to the Presidency was not commanding and defining. This is the reason he started campaigns from his first day in office. There was no STAMP in his 2023 victory, those who feels the opposition has a chance are not wrong.

Again, there will be casualties especially in the NASS however I think Tinubu will be returned because he has thrown money and pecks of office around that the opposition cannot even take a stand or see itself. He is the luckiest politician since 1999, to even see opposition supporters tear at each other in a daily basis.

Some things rwmain the same:
- Atiku takes ADC ticket
- Obi must be on the ballot

So what will happen, another divided opposition!

No Tinubu and co only supported him the second time to clear way for themselves. Nigeria is too complex to say someone can easily get a third term

lawani:
If Tinubu performs and Nigeria does not break up then he will win the elections hands down. He has done something last year which no regime has done for a long time. We had more revenue from non oil sources. Oil may reduce to twenty percent of government revenue this year and if the trend continues, people asking for restructuring will be more than people who don't want it

Everything about revenue generation last year was phantom. We had the deepest revenue shortfall last year in recent history. This is to the extent that the candid revelation by the finance minister has elicited him being sidelined, while 2 budget years have been cancelled already.

Tinubu should just be praying that 2027 elections should record a low voter turnout so he can rig in the south. If not, he realistically has no pathway to victory.

Svoboda:
Everything about revenue generation last year was phantom. We had the deepest revenue shortfall last year in recent history. This is to the extent that the candid revelation by the finance minister has elicited him being sidelined, while 2 budget years have been cancelled already.

Tinubu should just be praying that 2027 elections should record a low voter turnout so he can rig in the south. If not, he realistically has no pathway to victory.

Yes there was a huge shortfall in oil revenue but it lead to an increase in non oil revenue. CIT was ten trillion and VAT was 8 trillion. Customs 4 trillion. Oil was only 16 trillion. This year VAT and CIT may individually surpass oil and gas. In Lagos during Tinubu regime, there was a seizure of local government funds, it led t a revenue drive that changed Lagos. In Tinubu's presidency a drop in oil income has also had the same effect

8

AMINDA:
Governors relied on Buhari’s popularity to win their elections. Buhari had cult-like followership until and even after his death. Buhari has 12m organic supporters in the North. Now compare with Tinubu who only won with 8m votes and 5.6m of those votes coming from the North while losing in Lagos and Osun, his home turf. Compare with a Tinubu who's desperately relying on the popularity or might of the state governors to win his own re-election. Then you'll realise that Tinubu is not Buhari. Atiku/Obi pulled 11m votes against a Buhari. It will be a walk-over against Tinubu.

And where did the 11 million votes go to in 2023

asfrank:
8
And where did the 11 million votes go to in 2023

It was split with Atiku having 6.9m votes and Obi having 6.2m votes. APC has no answers to an Atiku/Obi ticket. Hence why the likes of Onanuga, Bwala, Keyamo and even lately, Datti have been commissioned to do what they can. But it's inevitable.

North is running away from tinubu. South east may support obi if he is on the ticket again, and southwest has always been problematic even for tinubu. Wike can act as a spoiler again if tinubu favors fubara over him

Yeah governors have defected , but defection doesn't mean votes.

I see people here postulating that the north is not going to vote for Tinubu, same thing was said last year, untill he clinched the NW and performed well in the NE.
Tinubu is not banking on winning these zones, baby analyst here don't seem to understand simple logic. Some here take their personal grudge for the man to mean a general disapproval. I recall back in 2023, the theme was Buhari is not on the ballot, hence Tinubu won't get his votes. But he won in all North East states traditionally won by Buhari except for Bauchi, yobe and Gombe. Taraba and Adamawa has always gone the way of Atiku and it was no different. The States will most likely remain so, especially when he has people doing the ground work for him.
The North West similar patterns were observed. But the main thing you have to factor in is the difference between the winner and the 2nd. The largest margin Atiku won Tinubu with in any northern state came from Adamawa his home state, followed by Kaduna, Bauchi and Gombe. Anywhere else in the North where Atiku recorded victory the difference was less than 60k votes.

And these Large margin of his were easily swallowed up by vote difference from Kano, Lagos, and other SW states. AA didn't win any state in Southern Nigeria aside Osun, and yet again the margin was tight.

AA can't defeat Tinubu, Obi can't get votes in the North enough to defeat Tinubu even if they elites backs him. I'm saying this because the calculations don't favour a new Southern candidate. His best shot came in 2023 and it has passed.

asfrank:
8
And where did the 11 million votes go to in 2023

Are you from Neptune or Mars?
Atiku - 6,984,520
P. Obi - 6,101,533
Kwankwaso - 1,496,687
Atiku/Obi = 13,086,053
If you add Kwankwaso, ElRufai, Amechi and others who helped Tinubu in 2023, Atiku/Obi will be about 16M

For Tinubu, it is OVER. He can only look to hold on to South West (excluding Lagos).

lawani:
Yes there was a huge shortfall in oil revenue but it lead to an increase in non oil revenue. CIT was ten trillion and VAT was 8 trillion. Customs 4 trillion. Oil was only 16 trillion. This year VAT and CIT may individually surpass oil and gas. In Lagos during Tinubu regime, there was a seizure of local government funds, it led t a revenue drive that changed Lagos. In Tinubu's presidency a drop in oil income has also had the same effect

Buhari suffered longer periods of low oil prices. In fact, when he took power oil was at 22 USD, but he was able to fund and complete projects. The increase in non oil revenue was a groundwork laid by Buhari, and we witnessed a considerable amount of infrastructure developments. Meanwhile, Tinubu hasn't been that reassuring about infrastructure, despite subsidy removal freeing up so much finance.

Svoboda:
Buhari suffered longer periods of low oil prices. In fact, when he took power oil was at 22 USD, but he was able to fund and complete projects. The increase in non oil revenue was a groundwork laid by Buhari, and we witnessed a considerable amount of infrastructure developments. Meanwhile, Tinubu hasn't been that reassuring about infrastructure, despite subsidy removal freeing up so much finance.

I would not credit the revenue drive in 2024 to Buhari. Buhari would have responded to a drop in oil prices with a devaluation of the naira. Let us give credit to whom it is due.

lawani:
If Tinubu performs and Nigeria does not break up then he will win the elections hands down. He has done something last year which no regime has done for a long time. We had more revenue from non oil sources. Oil may reduce to twenty percent of government revenue this year and if the trend continues, people asking for restructuring will be more than people who don't want it

which non oil revenues, the one they latter debunked it never happened, which made them roll over 2025 budget to 2026
Oga Tinubu is just messing up there, just focusing on politics, Anyway apart from scheming nothing dey him head again
But the country can not afford that the lives of over 200m Nigerians depend on good governance, that should take precedent over one man ambition, if the country knows what they are doing
After all Tinubu has fulfilled his ambition, his destiny, he should allow Nigeria fulfill its destiny and its potentials

lawani:
No Tinubu and co only supported him the second time to clear way for themselves. Nigeria is too complex to say someone can easily get a third term

Could they have stopped Buhari's second term?
Permitted here means if the Constitution allowed it!

Validated:
Are you from Neptune or Mars?
Atiku - 6,984,520
P. Obi - 6,101,533
Kwankwaso - 1,496,687
Atiku/Obi = 13,086,053
If you add Kwankwaso, ElRufai, Amechi and others who helped Tinubu in 2023, Atiku/Obi will be about 16M

For Tinubu, it is OVER. He can only look to hold on to South West (excluding Lagos).

You haven't seen anything, any you think amongst those that decided to vote for Obi won't have cast their vote for Tinubu? Na wao for this your reasoning oh.

Shey you the see obidients way the talk say for Atiku to win better make Tinubu continue...

Don't use that as concrete evidence,