₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
It was split with Atiku having 6.9m votes and Obi having 6.2m votes. APC has no answers to an Atiku/Obi ticket. Hence why the likes of Onanuga, Bwala, Keyamo and even lately, Datti have been commissioned to do what they can. But it's inevitable.

I pray they repeat the same thing, so this question can have a definite answer. And please I don't want to hear it was rigged.
I don't base my analysis on rigging.

fergie001:
Could they have stopped Buhari's second term?
Permitted here means if the Constitution allowed it!

Maybe. Who knows? If they had voted for Atiku. They however put Buhari there and stood by him throughout

Buhari got 15 million votes in 2019, same as 2015. Tinubu contributed only about 2 million votes to that, meaning that’s the highest votes he can mobilize for himself and others.

In 2023, Tinubu got only 8 million votes even with the “he built Lagos” lies and hype. You know the rest 6 million votes came from half of Buhari supporters who listened to him to vote for Tinubu.

Question is, after seeing all his failures, what will make more people support him, that is, if he hasn’t lost many of the 6 million votes that came from Buhari?

If you think the governors defecting will save him, did Sanwo Olu being governor save him in Lagos in 2023?

You think vote-buying is going to automatically solve the problem? Vote buying works mostly when people don’t have a problem with you being their President.

fergie001:
Buhari had millions of votes in the kitty even if he was permitted to run a third term. Since 2003, he alone had that number INTACT good or bad in every election cycle.

On the contrary, Tinubu's pathway to the Presidency was not commanding and defining. This is the reason he started campaigns from his first day in office. There was no STAMP in his 2023 victory, those who feels the opposition has a chance are not wrong.

Again, there will be casualties especially in the NASS however I think Tinubu will be returned because he has thrown money and pecks of office around that the opposition cannot even take a stand or see itself. He is the luckiest politician since 1999, to even see opposition supporters tear at each other in a daily basis.

Some things rwmain the same:
- Atiku takes ADC ticket
- Obi must be on the ballot

So what will happen, another divided opposition!

@ emboldened, I am just curious. Do you have the receipts from those who president Tinubu has thrown money at?

asfrank:
You haven't seen anything, any you think amongst those that decided to vote for Obi won't have cast their vote for Tinubu? Na wait for this your reasoning oh.

Shey you the see obidients way the talk say for Atiku to win better make Tinubu continue...

Don't use that as concrete evidence,

People say things before primaries until election climate changes. Some of those APC supporters who said if Osinbajo didn’t win primaries they’ll vote against Tinubu, still supported him when election climate settled down.

Most Nigerians don’t want to know what it feels like to have a second term for Tinubu. Forget Agbadorians like you Tinubu on nairaland 24/7, reality on the streets is different

helinues:
@ emboldened, I am just curious. Do you have the receipts from those who president Tinubu has thrown money at?

Every President of Nigeria does so when seeking office or another term and Tinubu HAS done so.

Do you need a receipt to show you are eating?

fergie001:
Every President of Nigeria does so when seeking office or another term and Tinubu HAS done so.

Do you need a receipt to show you are eating?

You as a mod shouldn't be making allegations you can't back up with evidence.

Show us the receipts from the people who have received the money president Tinubu has been throwing around for his reelection as you claimed

givedemwotowoto:
People say things before primaries until election climate changes. Some of those APC supporters who said if Osinbajo didn’t win primaries they’ll vote against Tinubu, still supported him when election climate settled down.

Most Nigerians don’t want to know what it feels like to have a second term for Tinubu. Forget Agbadorians like you Tinubu on nairaland 24/7, reality on the streets is different

I will not forget this chat, when it's all said and done, I will remind you.
Remember don't shout rigging.

AMINDA:
Governors relied on Buhari’s popularity to win their elections. Buhari had cult-like followership until and even after his death. Buhari has 12m organic supporters in the North. Now compare with Tinubu who only won with 8m votes and 5.6m of those votes coming from the North while losing in Lagos and Osun, his home turf. Compare with a Tinubu who's desperately relying on the popularity or might of the state governors to win his own re-election. Then you'll realise that Tinubu is not Buhari. Atiku/Obi pulled 11m votes against a Buhari. It will be a walk-over against Tinubu.

We go down the wrong analytical track when we base our analysis and permutations for 2027 presidential elections on the 'results' of 2023! More so when you consider Tinubu wasn't even president at the time! Is it now that he has INEC, the judiciary and state instruments of coercion all firmly in his pocket, as well as possessing keys to the national vault and controlling slavish, greedy, daft and mindless minions all strategically placed in most regions of the country....is it now that he has all this to his advantage that you feel 'votes' he will get in 2027 will be drastically reduced from the ones he got in 2023?

Elections in Nigeria, especially since 2015, have never been about the triumph of the will of the people or winners emerging based on getting a preponderance of validly cast votes! It's all about in-your-face impunity, and we have seen this manifest in elections in states like Imo, Edo and recently Anambra! If the opposition is just banking on votes they expect to get at the ballot in 2027 and whatever safeguards they feel are in place to protect said votes, then it's apparent they still don't know the person they're dealing with!

givedemwotowoto:
Buhari got 15 million votes in 2019, same as 2015. Tinubu contributed only about 2 million votes to that, meaning that’s the highest votes he can mobilize for himself and others.

In 2023, Tinubu got only 8 million votes even with the “he built Lagos” lies and hype. You know the rest 6 million votes came from half of Buhari supporters who listened to him to vote for Tinubu.

Question is, after seeing all his failures, what will make more people support him, that is, if he hasn’t lost many of the 6 million votes that came from Buhari?

If you think the governors defecting will save him, did Sanwo Olu being governor save him in Lagos in 2023?

You think vote-buying is going to automatically solve the problem? Vote buying works mostly when people don’t have a problem with you being their President.

Bros, you don't know Nigerians! Any other country, i would have agreed with you....but not Nigeria! More so now that APC/Tinubu have successfully weaponised poverty!

SadiqBabaSani:
This combo was tried in 2019 and it fell flat not because Atiku possibly didn't win the election but because it was ALLEGEDLY manipulated.

So if the formula was tested on Buhari and it failed, why do you think it can work on a battle tested Tinubu?

Obi should not Vice Atiku, Obi should contest on his own

That is why you need to be updated. Obi is going for presidency with Atiku daughter being vice.
Meanwhile Buhari won then just because Nigeria economic hardship has never gotten rotten to this drastic unpresidentable we are presently due Chicago boy who claimed to build Lagos while what he knows is how loot and tax poverty stricken citizens

IGBOSON1:
Bros, you don't know Nigerians! Any other country, i would have agreed with you....but not Nigeria! More so now that APC/Tinubu have successfully weaponised poverty!

I hear you. I’m not saying people won’t collect money, they will. But here’s the psychology many people miss:

Hope is worth more than N10,000.

People collect money when they believe nothing meaningful will change, when they think there’s no real future in the choices before them.

If you promise a mother a better future for her child, (like education or job opportunity) and she believes you, she will reject N10,000 and vote for you.

But if you ask the same mother to vote for you without offering anything that gives her real hope, then yes, she’ll take money from whoever is willing to offer it.

That’s the difference.

Vote buying works mostly when people believe that’s all they’ll ever get. When there’s no real hope for change, then money becomes the only thing people are sure of getting.

If opposition campaigns on a message of hope and people believe it, vote buying will lose much of its power.

Those people sent to buy votes will even keep the money to themselves as their own compensation, especially when they get a sense that their boss is going to lose.

SmartPolician:
Buhari is by far the most influential human being to have contested in Nigerian election since 1999.... nobody else comes close...not even Obasanjo.

If he was that popular, why didn't he win the elections until he formed coalition with others? Buhari started contesting for presidency since 2003

Svoboda:
Everything about revenue generation last year was phantom. We had the deepest revenue shortfall last year in recent history. This is to the extent that the candid revelation by the finance minister has elicited him being sidelined, while 2 budget years have been cancelled already.

Tinubu should just be praying that 2027 elections should record a low voter turnout so he can rig in the south. If not, he realistically has no pathway to victory.

He has SW, ss and NC and parts of core north. Atiku and obi have no pathway

nairalanda1:
North is running away from tinubu. South east may support obi if he is on the ticket again, and southwest has always been problematic even for tinubu. Wike can act as a spoiler again if tinubu favors fubara over him

Yeah governors have defected , but defection doesn't mean votes.

North is not running away, it remains divided. Tinubu already has north central. Defections means votes in Nigeria if you have been following politics

asfrank:
I see people here postulating that the north is not going to vote for Tinubu, same thing was said last year, untill he clinched the NW and performed well in the NE.
Tinubu is not banking on winning these zones, baby analyst here don't seem to understand simple logic. Some here take their personal grudge for the man to mean a general disapproval. I recall back in 2023, the theme was Buhari is not on the ballot, hence Tinubu won't get his votes. But he won in all North East states traditionally won by Buhari except for Bauchi, yobe and Gombe. Taraba and Adamawa has always gone the way of Atiku and it was no different. The States will most likely remain so, especially when he has people doing the ground work for him.
The North West similar patterns were observed. But the main thing you have to factor in is the difference between the winner and the 2nd. The largest margin Atiku won Tinubu with in any northern state came from Adamawa his home state, followed by Kaduna, Bauchi and Gombe. Anywhere else in the North where Atiku recorded victory the difference was less than 60k votes.

And these Large margin of his were easily swallowed up by vote difference from Kano, Lagos, and other SW states. AA didn't win any state in Southern Nigeria aside Osun, and yet again the margin was tight.

AA can't defeat Tinubu, Obi can't get votes in the North enough to defeat Tinubu even if they elites backs him. I'm saying this because the calculations don't favour a new Southern candidate. His best shot came in 2023 and it has passed.

With Taraba governor in APC, Tinubu might likely win there. With Fintiri pro Tinubu, Atiku votes in Adamawa will decrease. Tinubu will win Yobe this time. With Bala likely being on PDP ticket, Bauchi is divided. Atiku still has gombe..
Tinubu will still win north west. He will win sokoto, Kebbi, zamfara, Jigawa and will come close in kaduna

givedemwotowoto:
Buhari got 15 million votes in 2019, same as 2015. Tinubu contributed only about 2 million votes to that, meaning that’s the highest votes he can mobilize for himself and others.

In 2023, Tinubu got only 8 million votes even with the “he built Lagos” lies and hype. You know the rest 6 million votes came from half of Buhari supporters who listened to him to vote for Tinubu.

Question is, after seeing all his failures, what will make more people support him, that is, if he hasn’t lost many of the 6 million votes that came from Buhari?

If you think the governors defecting will save him, did Sanwo Olu being governor save him in Lagos in 2023?

You think vote-buying is going to automatically solve the problem? Vote buying works mostly when people don’t have a problem with you being their President.

A large number of people don't want atiku or obi

Akpakomiza2:
A large number of people don't want atiku or obi

Why did only 6 million of Buhari's 12 million supporters vote for Tinubu?

What will make them vote for him this time if they didn't vote for him when Buhari told them to, after seeing him blame Buhari, and then fail more than Buhari?

Akpakomiza2:
He has SW, ss and NC and parts of core north. Atiku and obi have no pathway

Fingers crossed.

givedemwotowoto:
Why did only 6 million of Buhari's 12 million supporters vote for Tinubu?

What will make them vote for him this time if they didn't vote for him when Buhari told them to, after seeing him blame Buhari, and then fail more than Buhari?

Who told you 6 mil of buhari voters voted Tinubu? Does it not occur to you that some voted kwankwaso and Atiku? He never blamed buhari in any case. Nigerians will rather Tinubu finish his tenure than Atiku come with more wahalas

Akpakomiza2:
Who told you 6 mil of buhari voters voted Tinubu? Does it not occur to you that some voted kwankwaso and Atiku? He never blamed buhari in any case. Nigerians will rather Tinubu finish his tenure than Atiku come with more wahalas

Buhari had 12 million supporters from the north in 2015 and 2019, but only 6 million of them voted for Tinubu in 2023, which means only half of Buhari’s supporters voted for Tinubu. Now that he’s President and has failed, and Buhari is not there to save him, that number will even be smaller.

Atiku is the liability

AMINDA:
Governors relied on Buhari’s popularity to win their elections. Buhari had cult-like followership until and even after his death. Buhari has 12m organic supporters in the North. Now compare with Tinubu who only won with 8m votes and 5.6m of those votes coming from the North while losing in Lagos and Osun, his home turf. Compare with a Tinubu whoe's desperately relying on the popularity or might of the state governors to win his own re-election. Then you'll realise that Tinubu is not Buhari. Atiku/Obi pulled 11m votes against a Buhari. It will be a walk-over against Tinubu.

...



You are very wrong and ignorant of issues on the ground.
Quite to the contrary, all the governors defecting to the APC do so to enjoy the grace of Tinubu for their re-election.
They realize that they will against Tinubu's tsunami in 2027.

The votes you ascribed to Buhari in 2015 and 2027 was due to Tinubu's support and backing.

Remember that Buhari had vowed not to contest again after serial failures. It was Tinubu who persuaded him with the assurance that with his backing, he would win.
Buhari, on his own, did not have the clout to win those elections
To buttress this, despite the opposition of Buhari and his cult cabal against Tinubu, he defeated them even as an outsider.
In case you don't know, the opposition Tinubu faced in 2023 was not only from the opposing parties but from within his own party and his own people in the SW.
The Yoruba were largely against him. I know because I was part of it . All that has changed.
Take it or leave it, Tinubu already has the SW, SS, NC and a large part of NE sewn up for him.
Only those in the know who have their ears to the ground will tell you this

Validated:
Op, Buhari's cult following in the North is no longer on the APC ballot. By the way, why are APC apologists fixated on Peter Obi? 2023 results have shown everyone that New Nigeria is POssible.

You are very wrong. Who is the most garrulous politician in Nigeria today ? Peter Obi and he is always that for very narratives which is why he has to be countered. If you must know, Peter Obi does not even count in Tinubu's permutations .
As for Buhari's cult votes, those votes were made possible with Tinubu's support.

With all his cult followership, he suffered three shameful defeats until Tinubu came to his aid.

SmartPolician:
Buhari is by far the most influential human being to have contested in Nigeri..an election since 1999.... nobody else comes close...not even Obasanjo.

Yet, he suffered three straight defeats, right ?

You are ignorant of the dynamics of Nigeria's politics

Akpakomiza2:
With Taraba governor in APC, Tinubu might likely win there. With Fintiri pro Tinubu, Atiku votes in Adamawa will decrease. Tinubu will win Yobe this time. With Bala likely being on PDP ticket, Bauchi is divided. Atiku still has gombe..
Tinubu will still win north west. He will win sokoto, Kebbi, zamfara, Jigawa and will come close in kaduna

I'm not really counting on that, because these state have been traditionally PDP states. Winning is not guaranteed, getting more votes than 2023 is something I can bet on

surgical:
Very simple to understand, the north total plus southwest gave enough votes
This time thec north plus south east votes. Plus South south votes leaves Tinubu with only south west,so there is no path way to victory for Tinubu, ok let's be generous and give south south to Tinubu even though unlikely
That will mean south west plus south south votes for Tinubu, still does not give him any pathway to victory
Only rigging can make him win, in that case he will have to commit large scale murder to achieve that,and any victory earn through such atrocities can not last

Your flawed analysis is apparently based on your wishful thinking but unfortunately, that is not how it works, okay ?

This is a hint: Tinubu is going to retire all these politicians making noise all over the place finally inv2027. And the election will be free and fair.
Tinubu wants to ensure that as a legacy

AMINDA:
Governors relied on Buhari’s popularity to win their elections. Buhari had cult-like followership until and even after his death. Buhari has 12m organic supporters in the North. Now compare with Tinubu who only won with 8m votes and 5.6m of those votes coming from the North while losing in Lagos and Osun, his home turf. Compare with a Tinubu who's desperately relying on the popularity or might of the state governors to win his own re-election. Then you'll realise that Tinubu is not Buhari. Atiku/Obi pulled 11m votes against a Buhari. It will be a walk-over against Tinubu.

Thats the thought of an average person. Just like every other person, predictable, narrow and shallow. However, the world of politics does t work on a straight line. Because it rained cat and dog yesterday, doesn't mean it will rain same tomorrow. There is a wide gap between yesterday and tomorrow, which mayẹ likely rain Tiger and Leoperd, but a mediocre cant see that, he failed to reflect on what's currently happening.

The decamped of many governors that swells APC governor to 30 and the inability of ADC to pull any surprise during rerun and Anambra governorship election are turning points that nullify yesterday's permutations.

Tomorrow will be build on the foundation of today's political performance, which is pain and defeat of your ADC

SadiqBabaSani:
This combo was tried in 2019 and it fell flat not because Atiku possibly didn't win the election but because it was ALLEGEDLY manipulated.

So if the formula was tested on Buhari and it failed, why do you think it can work on a battle tested Tinubu?

Obi should not Vice Atiku, Obi should contest on his own

You region thinks the SE are not smart. You want divided votes so u can rig and say go to corrupt court again. We are wiser and in coalition with north

Streetinvestor2:
You region thinks the SE are not smart. You want divided votes so u can rig and say go to corrupt court again. We are wiser and in coalition with north

An impotent man blaming his inability to have a child on weak erection. Why not admit that he is impotent.

Tinubu will beat whoever ADC present blue and black in a free and fair election without rigging. So, stop insinuating what's not

SadiqBabaSani:
This combo was tried in 2019 and it fell flat not because Atiku possibly didn't win the election but because it was ALLEGEDLY manipulated.

So if the formula was tested on Buhari and it failed, why do you think it can work on a battle tested Tinubu?

Obi should not Vice Atiku, Obi should contest on his own

The werey is only bringing his 2.5 million votes from SW so it is useless
He doesn't represent southern vote.Obi is the true southern vote now in adc.
Buhari was equally true northern votes that is why he won.

Ttalk:
An impotent man blaming his inability to have a child on weak erection. Why not admit that he is impotent.

Tinubu will beat whoever ADC present blue and black in a free and fair election without rigging. So, stop insinuating what's not

Lol even if adc presents a stick. It will beat the drug baron not even humans.He was billions buying governors to apc not knowing obi was playing him like he was still in labour party. As obi officially announced. The rigging plan is dismantled as thr won't be divided votes and votes will be easy to defend as all polling units will be covered by men with counting machines